Holidays Season Trading - Increased volatility and riskI've been asked a lot about trading during Holidays Season.
There are several things you need to be aware of if you intend to trade during Holidays Season that starts this week:
1. Low liquidity - Market is thin as banks, funds, institutions and pro traders take time off
2. Unexpected moves and increased intra-day volatility. Aggressive price reaction to minor events.
3. Frequent False Breaks - Especially in volatile pairs like $GBPNZD
This $GBPNZD chart is a great example of how 300-400 pips range with 3 major structure zones held for more than 2 weeks. Notice the multiple False Breaks to all structure zones.
In order to manage through the Holidays period here are 3 tips:
1. Use smaller positions size.
2. Use wider stop loss - Focus on Major structures and trend lines
3. Take profits on short term targets and move stop loss to BE.
Tomer, The MarketZone
This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters
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Study
AUDCHF on a 5-0 streakAs $aud seems to gain strength related airs offer some solid setups. This particular pair is more interesting for it keeps repeating same fractal and not only on higher levels, but on lower time intervals too. So im gonna give it another shot and hopefully we will get at least one more high.
$STUDY: 5-0 pattern: tinyurl.com
GOLD TRIPLE BOTTOMHi Traders,
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GOLD TRIPLE BOTTOM
Gold (now at 1241) has made a triple bottom around 1183 (see weekly chart and daily chart) and started a corrective rally as usual. At this stage, there's still no sign of the typical set of waves that mark the end of the major downtrend started in Sept 2011.
Hence, Gold should make a new top in the area 1249-52 or even 1263-64 before resuming the downtrend to the area 1164-1154 and lower.
HOWEVER, please read the "NOTE" below: there could be a surprise.
TARGETS
first up to
likely: area 1249-52
possibly: area 1257-60
maybe: 1268-69
then down to
likely: area 1164-1154
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)
ELLIOTT WAVES
GOLD is almost done with the very minor wave 4 upwards (1-hour chart and 4-hour chart). The new wave down following this temporary top should form the smaller wave 5 of the larger wave 3 (daily chart).
This little wave 5 should break through the support at 1182-83 and move down to the first of the targets above mentioned (area 1164-1154).
By The Way:
NOTE:
If the present rally tops much higher than predicted (at 1290-93 or even 1318-21, quite possible), then the wave count will need a re-assessment.
If this scenario occurs wave 3 (bottom right of the daily chart) will also take the name of "wave d" and this would extend target of the recent uptrend up to 1290-1321 to form "wave e".
"Wave e" would be followed by the very last leg down - in 5 smaller waves - to form the historical low (major wave 4, weekly chart) at 1064-1054, $1089 or $1043-$1032 and will mark the end of the 3 years downtrend.
Hence, if this scenario materialises, GOLD would need few more weeks to reach the bottom of major wave 4 (up to the last week of Dec 14).
The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If all this is true, a very major uptrend should then follow.
AAPL Pitchfork daily - Post Split updated chartI had to redo my chart after the stock split so it gave me a chance to take another look and redraw. Here's an updated chart that may or may not prove valid. Price does seem to react at the various tines of the fork.
Daily closes above the mid fork would bode well for AAPL. Price rejection by the mid fork and closes below 90 would have bearish overtones for AAPL and possibly the overall markets as well.
Earnings on 7/22 after market close. Look for consolidation and chop until then. Good luck!