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GBPCHF At Key Area. Two Scenario'sGBPCHF overall is downtrending as you can see on the higher time frames (4H and above). We have added a chart image of the weekly and daily charts below this description. As you can see on the weekly chart, Price in march had spiked down aggressively to form a new all time low for GBPCHF. This can signify a possible aggressive rise in price in the near future. Price had recently broken below a larger range and is now trading within a tight range below. On the 1H we have a clear downtrend towards the bottom of the range and price has failed to break below multiple times. We have marked two scenario's on the chart, however we have a LONG bias on this pair due to price nearing all time lows. Short scenario; If we get a clear break below support, we would like to see price develop a continuation pattern on the 1H or 4H charts to look for shorts. Long scenario; We would like to see price break above the minor resistance (blue line), retest and reject this area with strong bullish momentum candles (engulfing/pinbar) to confirm long positions to the top of tight range and possibly further. Follow us for more analysis and educational content!
Long
by BlueFireForex
GBPUSD Possible Lower High/Downtrend RejectionGBPUSD overall is in a downtrend on the higher time frames (4H and above). We have added a Daily chart image with notes below this text. Price is currently trading within a range (red lines) and has recently failed to successfully break out of the top of the range. Price is in a small uptrend and close to touching the up trend line for a possible rejection and bullish continuation, or a break below. We have marked two high probability scenario's with arrows on the chart. Bullish scenario; -Price tests uptrend and/or support level -The up trend is in line with a support level (blue line) which would add confluence to a buy if we get a strong sign of rejection on the 1H or 4H charts, ideally a large bullish engulfing or pin bar followed by strong bullish momentum -Targeting the HTF downtrend line/next resistance (red line above downtrend line) and possibly further Bearish scenario; -Price breaks below the uptrend line and support level -Price retests the support level and/or uptrend line and rejects this area with strong bearish momentum candles -Targeting the bottom of the range We have a bullish bias on this pair, due to the break of the top of the range, we expect price to attempt to form a new lower high towards the HTF downtrend line but we always make sure to forecast many possible scenario's. Follow us for more analysis and educational content!
Long
by BlueFireForex
EURUSD Head & ShouldersEURUSD has attempted to break the strong 1.1400 whole number resistance level multiple times but failed. Price has now formed a head and shoulders pattern (reversal pattern) after breaking an uptrend line and rejecting the resistance. A break below the neckline would confirm the head and shoulders pattern, and we would look for short opportunities on the retest of the neckline targeting around 1.1100. I generally scalp EURUSD on the 15m everyday, and was able to enter a short position at the top of the right shoulder on the close of a bearish pinbar . Currently running at over 2.5% risk free Follow us for more analysis and educational content
Short
by BlueFireForex
NZDUSD Double Top Rejecting HTF Downtrend LineNZDUSD on the higher timeframes is in a clear downtrend Price has recently rejected the HTF downtrend line with a double top (reversal pattern), visible on the 4h and below. Price then broke below the neckline but has respected an up trend line and is now retesting the neckline of the double top, which usually happens before a double top becomes successful. Currently price has strongly rejected the neckline, with a pin bar like candle on the 4H closing on the neckline, and now a large bearish candle on the 4H showing strong bearish momentum. Our 3+ reasons to take this trade -HTF downtrend line rejection -4H Double top -Neckline break and retest -Multiple 4H reversal candle confirmation on the retest -Break of uptrend line Follow us for more analysis and educational content
Short
by BlueFireForex
EURGBP Break And Retest | Two Scenario's EURGBP is trading within a large range on the higher timeframes and is currently trading within smaller ranges on the lower timeframes. This is EURGBP on the daily Earlier this year price strongly rejected higher prices at the top of the higher time frame range, so we can expect price may fall to the bottom of the range in future. Price on the 1H chart has been testing the strong .9000 resistance level. Currently price has strongly rejected this .9000 resistance with a bearish pinbar and strong bearish momentum afterwards. We have marked two scenario's on the chart, and currently it looks like the bearish scenario is playing out. Follow us for more free analysis.
Short
by BlueFireForex
NZDCAD 1H Bearish Pinbar At ResistanceNZDCAD on the 1H has formed a bearish pinbar signal near the very strong 0.8800 resistance level. Price on the lower time frames has formed a symmetrical triangle, and has strongly rejected the top of it with the pinbar. On the daily chart we can see price overall is downtrending and is heading up likely to attempt to test the higher time frame downtrend line to form a lower high after making a lower low earlier this year. However as price is testing the strong 0.8800 level resistance and currently is failing to break above, we can assume that price may have reached its peak around this level and look for shorts from here. We are aware price can continue further up from here and we can lose this trade (like with any other trade), but it would be better to take a high probability trade in this area and lose than to miss out on the opportunity due to fear of losing and for it to reach or surpass targets. We will be targeting at least the .8600 level for this pair.
Short
by BlueFireForex
EURJPY Daily Downtrend Break OutEURJPY broke out of a higher timeframe downtrend last week. Price also broke out of two strong resistance areas with the EUR strength we have seen for the past few weeks. We can see two possible scenarios; 1.Price falls to retest the strong support/resistance (red line) and continues with strong bullish momentum 2.Price breaks back into the downtrend creating a "fake out" and bearish momentum forms with EUR pairs Our bias for EURJPY is currently bullish as a result of the current strength in EUR pairs. To change this bias we would need to see price break back into the downtrend.
Long
by BlueFireForex
GBPUSD Possible Triple TopGBPUSD is in a range. Price is currently in a strong uptrend, heading towards the top of the range. Looking back on the charts, price has strongly rejected the resistance at the top of the range multiple times before, meaning this is a strong level. We would like to see price reach the resistance and reject with strong bearish momentum in the form of either 4H or 1H bearish engulfing candles, or pinbars. We are also aware of the up trending strength in this pair currently, and realise price can continue pass this level.
Short
by BlueFireForex
1
EURUSD Possible Break And Retest EURUSD has just impulsively broken above a strong level of resistance, marked with the red line. We forecasted this possible trade idea last week. Price is moving in a strong up trend on the 1H and 4H charts. We are now looking for price to retest the resistance now turned support, and/or one of the up-trend lines marked on the chart. We would like to see price ideally retest the S/R zone in line with an uptrend line, adding more confluence to a long position. This would be confirmed with a strong bullish engulfing/pinbar candle formation on the 4H or 1H time frames We are also aware this can be a fake out, and price can reject higher prices and fall back below the S/R area and back into the range, targeting the lows. Thats why we always wait for confirmation and confluence when trading.
Long
by BlueFireForex
1
NZDCAD Head & Shoulders Forecast Playing OutWe forecasted this NZDCAD head and shoulders last week. Our position is now running at over 4.15% with over 2.5% locked in with our stop loss. Now risk free with guaranteed profit. With experience analysing and trading in the live markets we were able to forecast the right shoulder far before it was confirmed, due to the nature that price was rejected the previous highs of the left shoulder. This was a very high probability trade due to all the confluence factors in line with eachother; 1.Multiple rejections of strong resistance level (red line above price) 2. Rising wedge break and retest 3. Head and Shoulders pattern 4.Right shoulder failing over and over to break the highs of the left shoulder 5. Bearish engulfing on the 1H time frame 6.Strong bearish momentum on the 4H time frame. This was our entry point, with a stop loss above the right shoulder highs, and a target at the bottom of the range, but trailing our stop loss according to our BlueFire Strategy as price develops safe levels. We were able to enter at the break of a minor 1H resistance at the top of the right shoulder, which is a part of our strategy.
Short
by BlueFireForex
It broke the high of a few target, so what now?This is the weekly chart. It’s much cleaner compared to the daily chart. Nevertheless, always use MTF to see the magic. From my previous ideas, I’ve mentioned that some of the target are met. We are now waiting for a reversal. So if there is no reversal bar in the next couple of days... Then... We’re looking for the market to continue higher. As of now, there is no sell signal yet. Now on the upside it’s showing us that it’s heading somewhere... where? Look at the numbers you’d be able to see a few target. Patience and precision would get you the much need bonus in the Covid 19 period. What will trigger the next possible drop? No one knows but what we know is that the calculation works, we’re ahead of any news. For now be safe from anywhere you are in the world. Go with god.
TVC:DJIShort
by Muhammad_syafiee
EUR/AUD ANALYSIS + POSSIBLE SHORT ENTRYHere we have a nice set-up on the EUR/AUD pair on the 1 hour chart. I started by identifying the long term trend on the 4 hour chart and decided to find a set-up on the 1 hour chart. On the 1 hour chart, I laid out the Fibonacci levels onto my chart from the last move in the market to the downside from the swing high to the swing low. After I had laid out the levels I identified a parallel channel chart pattern to the upside direction. Within the channel we can see price bouncing off of both lines with the market overall moving to the upside at this moment in time. We can also see that price had been trying to break higher highs towards the 50% Fibonacci level and had been bouncing between the 38.2% and 50% levels for several days, before eventually reaching the 50% level which is also an area of resistance on Friday 17th May at 10:00pm. At the start of this bounce to the 50% level I have also identified a moving average crossover indicating a move to the upside. RSI is currently at 65.82 which indicates to me that the buyers are currently in control of the market, the moving average crossover also backs up the prediction of an upside move. However soon I expect a reversal to the downside. In the meantime I expect the buyers to stay in control for a while and for price to break more higher highs and also break through the resistance area to then reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once price reaches the 61.8% level, this is when I expect the market to reverse to the downside. If I take an entry on this trade, I will set a 2:1 RISK-REWARD RATIO with a TP set to the swing low of the previous move to the downside.
Short
by ShaunGadd02
IF YOU TRADE, WATCH DXY TOO!!!Hi Traders, I'm here to help improving your trading skills with my ideas to see the market from sombody else's mind. Please look at my idea about Dollar Index! ---> The chart there is forming a triple top. If DXY going down, EURUSD is going up. Don't forget that! I'm expecting a strong move downwards on DXY, that means EURUSD will go up like a sky rocket!!! I'm really waiting for make the month's trade.. I'm ready.. Are you? Let's be successful together. Follow me for new ideas, I'll appreciate your follows. Have a great day ahead, Benjamin
Long
by Sparksoffly
2
WILL DOLLAR INDEX DROP??Hi Traders, I'm here to help improving your trading skills with my ideas to see the market from sombody else's mind. I think it's important to watch DXY because it helps to trade pairs like EURUSD, USDCHF ect… So what I see is a double top, and now creating a triple top. I will open my positions on the related pairs when DXY breaks and closes under the wedge. I did not get any good news about USA for months so I'm really expecting a big drop when "big fishes" realise that fact. Let's be successful together. Follow me for new ideas, I'll appreciate your follows. Have a great day ahead, Benjamin
TVC:DXYShort
by Sparksoffly
What are your odds of making it? How many get rekt?We have all heard anecdotal evidence. Every one throws random numbers around "be in the 80%", "be in the 91%", 99%, 90%, 75%, all sorts of numbers, usually the failure rate is pretty high and success is low. Day trading, or longer term. Real estate same story. And for long term investing you will hear "90% don't beat the market". I am looking at speculating here rather, althought alot of numbers take into account long term investors so keep that in mind (I'll repeat it when accurate). What is very often said is that winners have high reward to risk, and aren't day trading. From what I have seen around it looks to me that the people that make money day trading pretty much all scalp support levels with level 2 market data, or that sell programs and signals. No personal and anectode from here on, or maybe a little as bonus, I will look at studies. 1- AMF (french regulator) study of a popular broker clients over 4 years. The name of the report is "Étude des résultats des investisseurs particuliers sur le trading de CFD et de Forex en France". Now, let's get into the fun stuff. Seems small compared to the markets (forex + stocks + indices + more). Do retail traders getting wiped out really change much? Big institutions make more profit than a couple hundred millions over 4 years... Large speculators that make money, must be from hedgers and whales mostly. I don't think retail holding bags & gambling adds much. A large part of the lost money came from idiots placing tons of orders. How much is lost in spreads? Checking by volumes, those that did 1 to 10 million lost on average 3700 euros.... Say the average volume they did was 4 MM, that's a 0.01% loss... Looks like they are coinflip warriors that day trade and just lose money with spreads? My opinion the very few orders ones (losses are quite high compared to very small number of operations) are those that either go "all in" an a hunch and lose and leave, or get lucky, get excited, go in big, get shrekt, get scared, leave. And also those that start and can't stop losing, bad luck streak, disgusts them so they quit. So ye, the ones taking "big" losses early one are the luckier ones, they give up quick and never come back and don't waste time & take massive losses. 2- UKNF (Polish regulator) reports "Komunikat w sprawie wyników osiąganych przez inwestorów na rynku forex" (Communication on results achieved by investors in the forex market) 2 reports. Can't find the older one unless this is it. "The New York Fed’s Foreign Exchange Committee volume survey released in 2016 shows that trading by volume “non-financial customers” in April 2016 was at roughly 7% of all FX trades." Nice, nice. No, 93% are not making money off the 7% of small fish (just making a little, a rounding error in their profit). 3- FXCM report (they're a broker) I am so thankful for all of the 16-24 yo Forex experts, I can't help it I always get hysterical when I see their little faces or even just talk about them 🤣 If I meet someone that looks all defeated and tells me he got scammed by such an individual I guess our friendship will quickly be over because I won't be able to help just laughing in their face. I roasted an "educator" on tradingview & twitter, he threated to sue me + others. After he had already scammed people. And he repeated it. TV staff correctly banned him permanently, haven't heard from him since. Lots of clients were defending him. All their money is now belong to him. 4- 1999 NASAA report "REPORT OF THE DAY TRADING PROJECT GROUP" by the "NORTH AMERICAN SECURITIES ADMINISTRATORS ASSOCIATION". As we have seen the vast majority of retail are day traders, so this sort of will tell the same story. In 1999 the business was not as developped, a largest percentage of participant very likely were more seriously, most no effort get rich quick with my 22 yo educator indicators gamblers joined later. 5- Brazil 2019 study of day traders I'm just reading an article here. I think the study can be found on the SSRN website. Had another paper from this site but it was a study on a voluntary survey of traders lol, so not worth anything. "We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and who persisted for at least 300 days". Ok so this paper is worth something then. They quote some old papers when day traders didn't compete with HFT firms, high success rates of course (I don't know if it counts locals, because I mean that's not speculating). 6- Article from Tradeciety (quoting their sources) 7- Do Smart Investors Outperform Dumb Investors? 2009 paper by Grinblatt Keloharju Linnainmaa. From... Some Chicago school of Business? Found it on Yale department of economics site. Robert J. Shiller personal page (Shiller PE ratio). Seems legit enough. 8- What about non day-trading market participation? Well, there is absolutely nothing! It's all about day trading. Like not being clinically retarded is extravagant. So to sum up: The ~76% money losing rate european brokers display on average, I think is over a quarter. China literally totally banned leverage with FX (wonderful country), and you wonder why Bitcoin and other ponzi schemes have so much success? And crypto baghodlers actually expect China to not entirely ban crypto eventually... They are slow and incompetent but they'll get there. And this is a classic commie tactic: Let them think you are pro crypto, they pop their head out, you can arrest them. When they'll have arrested all those involved with crypto they wanted to arrest, they are going to lay a blanket ban on all cryptos. There is no hope, there is no light at the end of the tunnel, more and more brainlets are treating the markets like a casino, and it might only be a matter of time until it gets completely banned for retail (thanks, always protecting the morons). Stats are not that bad. 90% lose over a 4 year period? Maybe 90-95% of all those that join end up eventually losing or quit after a short while? It's not that bad. And remember a whole lot are stupid day traders, and they destroy the average. In the first year 60% of restaurants don’t make it past their first year and 80 percent go out of business (get rekt) within five years. In the first year 80% of retail traders don't make it past their first year and 90% go out of business (get rekt) within five years. Not much surprise here. Lmao at all those celebrities restaurants that fail completely! 😄 Not talking about famous chefs, I mean action movie actors & the such. Restaurants failure rate isn't counting the recent "min wage raise" in the USA. Good luck with those. Success rate would honestly go to zero. Simple maths. Politicians are really really stupid. House flipping is a very intelligent activity and has about the same success rate as day trading. US bureau of labors stats show that small businesses in general have a 50/50 survival rate over 5 years and 25% over 15 years and that's quite high. Most "educators" are either young or old (uuu the experience right). Studies show middle-aged men start the most successful businesses. Middle aged men are too busy doing actual stuff? I am between young and middle aged myself if you were wondering. I could go look for more stats but it's all the same. Success rates are never 100%. And the harder something is (because of hygiene regulations, because of cognitive demand), the lower the success rate. Medical schools have an acceptance rate of 7% on average, but that's not saying that 7% of all people that apply get in. "MCAT and GPA Grid for Applicants and Acceptees to U.S. Medical Schools, 2017-2018 through 2019-2020 (aggregated)" ==> 42% Teens with low scores don't even bother applying thought. And once in school how many end up with a doctorate? Sooooo... Speculative trading is one of the hardest activities, it is one of the hardest psychologically and most cognitive demanding. I crack up when people try to cheer themselves up and go "smart people don't make good traders because emmm ego n perfectionists n stuff". It's really not surprising that the failure rate would be at that level. Medical schools have a barrier to entry, which is why the failure rate is not as high, but absolutely anyone can start trading or open a restaurant. Obviously failure rates will be higher, and much higher in the case of speculation. Just imagine the average person. He's not very smart. Most people are somewhat isolated from the rest of the population. Engineers are surrounded by people with master degrees and doctorates, not janitors that can't add 2 and 2 and think Bloomberg can give 1 million to every one (lol). The average person is not very bright, and 50% people are dumber than this! In the 90% failure rate you got all kinds of delusional clows, all the bottom feeders are here. AND! Remember! This includes a big majority of day traders! I don't know what the numbers are for non day trading, but over a 5 year period the failure rate might only be 70% or so! Cruel reality is cruel. If you are rather smart, or at least non-retarded. Let's say you are in the top 25% of people (> 110 IQ), you have a real chance of making money if you put the effort into it. Probably doesn't need to be a genius. Just to make some money now I'm not talking about making millions either. 90 to 110 IQ I don't know. Slow people under 90 IQ, it's my personal opinion they can't possible be successful. Just my personal opinion. Like my personal opinion is that people with (today's) IQ < 90 have never and are never going to solve any math problem, or find some new elemental particle, or build a rocket, etc. If they manage to remember how to lace their shoes and fill a welfare request document that's real good, and that's all society will ever require of them 😉. Marathons, Chess, stuff where you can't cheat. Masters in those disciplines reached the peak after training for decades. Musclemen... Activities where you can take steroids... "The Mountain" became one of the strongest men in the world 2 years after lifting his first weight. Now his face is deformed 🙃 Strongment events that rely on strong joints not just muscles, in other words steroids don't help, interestingly their records haven't been broken in a century+ The public thinks they can get something for free. They think they can have success in something instantly, like it's a web link, just clic and here y a go. The gall. You got people so stupid they don't even understand how stupid they are, they struggle with the most basic concepts, and they casually think they're the greatest mind of all time, and will become some super hero beating HFT firms and outperforming Jesse Livermore etc. That amount of delusion is absolutely staggering. What more can I say. Anything other than flipping burgers takes time and effort and brains or brawns and sees some people fail. The competitive activities have higher failure rates. The more competitive, the lower the success rate... Why am I even typing this... But sure, I'm going to keep seing thousands of newbs land every months, and chase the twitter expert, or look for the person that joined 2 months ago and said "price go up" just before the price goes up (not joking I saw someone like this recently and the update idea after the breakout had literally in the first line "Volume is low not a good buy I am looking to short", literally the first line, and newbs that saw "green candle. price go up" are celebrating the "great call"). Absolute pieces of ****. I don't always read everything, or watch entire videos, I read diagonally and I think every one should, I pick bits in articles I am interested in, and I think that's what people should do but maaan. If you're not even going to bother reading the first sentence and are jsut looking for the traders with the most successful apparent last few calls, you really deserve to lose everything. It's like the USO buyers that didn't bother finding out what they were buying. Or stock & FX traders that never touched a future and then went all in Oil without learning what it was or anything. That's really insane to me. They certainly deserve to get wiped out. If I may give some tips around all this:
Education
by MrRenev
13
AUD/USD ANALYSIS FOR A LONG POSITIONFibonacci levels are laid out from the most recent swing low of the previous move to the upside to the swing high. From where the swing high is located we can see this market moved to the downside and reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level to then reverse and continue a trend to the upside. Price then retraced back towards the 61.8% level and again bounced off this level. I also identified a head and shoulders pattern on the chart which indicates to me that there will be a trend reversal, currently price is below both moving averages therefore price is moving on the downside, I expect price to reverse in and move in an uptrend. Within the head and shoulders pattern, I have also identified a trend channel where price is bouncing off both trend lines. We see a break out of the channel before reversing back down into the channel and price kept bouncing off the channel. The market has now currently broke out of the channel and Is now in the 61.8% level, RSI is around the 37 level which also indicates to us that sellers are currently in control, but there is a strong possibility that the market is going to see a reversal. I expect the market to now move in an uptrend. I will be placing this trade with a 2:1 RISK / REWARD RATIO, and aim to hit a target of the swing high. Please let me know what you guys think of this set-up :)
Long
by ShaunGadd02
USD/CAD SHORT POSITION ANALYSISPrice is currently moving in the upside direction towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and is in an area of resistance. Within the parallel channel in recent time, we can see that price had bounced from the swing low and NEARLY hit the 61.8% level but didn't quite reach before reversing back into the downtrend. Now we are in the pullback, back towards the 61.8% level we can also see that RSI is at 64.94 which tells us that buyers are currently strongly in control of the market, however soon we expect the market to reverse and continue the downtrend. I will be placing this trade with a 2:1 RISK / REWARD RATIO. Please let me know what you guys think of this trade set-up :)
Short
by ShaunGadd02