Success
HOW TO BECOME SUCCESSFUL IN TRADINGHi everyone.
I just wanted to share little bit of my knowledge and learning in the forex market with you all so you can benefit from it too.
I started learning trading 3 year ago. Fundamentals and News trading were what I started with. As a news trader you need to watch the market news on fundamentals (such as central bank decision makings on bank interest rates) and sentiments (such as short term news like geopolitical concerns in certain countries which moves the market for a short term only).... But it did not work out for me, so I moved on to a different strategy.
The next was support and resistance strategy which I am sure most of you are familiar with. It made me some winning trades but in the long term I was in loss.
Next I moved to a strategy called EW (Elliot Waves), I tried to master counting waves 1,2,3,4,5 it helped me a bit but it was also a failed strategy for me, I am not sure if it worked for anybody but it did not work for me.
Till 9 months ago I came across learning a concept called IMPULSE AND CORRECTION. When I started removing all the lines and indicators from my chart and just tried to look at the charts from a bigger perspective, I realised that price forms 2 moves only.
1. IMPULSE (a sharp move to upside or downside with long candles)
2. CORRECTION (a pattern which forms before an impulse occurs)
So to cut the story short, this is what I have been focusing on in the past 9 months and to be honest it has been making me money with proper risk management and PATIENCE.
I will go into details in my next educational posts about this strategy and how to identify corrective patterns so you can catch the next impulse.
For the time being please look at the above chart to learn something new from my experience so far.
Thank you for taking the time to read this as I know many of you are still struggling to make it happen in trading. Hope you learn something new from my posts and wishing you all good luck in this business.
10 Great Trading Quotes
It's always refreshing to hear from some of the trading greats that have made a killing on the markets.
Here are ten quotes that'll make you think twice:
"Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established." - George Soros
Soros cemented his position as a trading legend when he banked billions by shorting the British pound ahead of Black Wednesday - the day that traders broke the pound. They didn't really break the pound, but they forced the British Government to pull it from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), which it had joined in an attempt to unify European economies.
Soros made a pretty penny from trading volatile markets, opting to use it as an indication of a the beginning of a new trend.
"Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead." - Paul Tudor Jones
Jones is a Tennessee-born hedge fund manager, investor and philanthropist who as of February 2017, was the 120th richest person on the Forbes 400. The market is a living, breathing thing. It is constantly changing and it is always right. Jones understood this, which is why he stressed the importance of being adaptable and capable of changing your trading style to suit market conditions.
As Darwin famously said, it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.
“You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.” - Warren Buffet
A household name in the trading and investing sphere, Buffet has made more money than most of us put together.
You don't need to understand electricity to flick the light switch, and you don't need to understand the physics of a wave to be able to surf it.
“Superlative performance is really a confluence of dozens of small skills or activities, each one learned or stumbled upon, which have been carefully drilled into habit and then are fitted together in a synthesized whole. There is nothing extraordinary or superhuman in any one of those actions; only the fact that they are done consistently and correctly, and all together, produce excellence.” - Daniel F. Chambliss, Professor of Sociology
Here, Chambliss emphasizes the mundanity of excellence. Each factor that helps us make our trading decisions may seem underwhelming on its own, but bundle them all together and it produces some incredible results.
"I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one." - Mark Twain
Trust your analysis before you miss the move.
MONTH IN REVIEW: FEBRUARY 2017Hi traders,
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of trades posted on Trading View every day.
Some are hunches of what the market MIGHT do, others set definitive entry points and profit targets, and others anticipate the completion of certain patterns.
But how do we separate the wheat from the dross?
I want to be as transparent and accountable with my trades as possible. This is why I've started to make a diary of all my trades and a monthly review of how successful (or unsuccessful they were).
This will help ME to review what went well and, more importantly, highlight areas where I can improve for the following month. It will also help YOU, the readers, to hold me to account and determine how reliable my trade set ups are.
So how did I do this month?
Number of trades taken: 8
Number of ideas posted: 12 (3 educational, 9 trading ideas)
Successful trades: 7
Unsuccessful trades: 0
Entries missed: 1
Trades still active: 1
So here's a breakdown of the trades I've taken this month:
Trade 1:
NZDUSD SHORT
+162 pips
Trade 2:
AUDUSD SHORT
This trade is still active
Trade 3:
EURNZD SHORT
+100 pips
Trade 4:
AUDNZD SHORT
+100 pips
Trade 5:
EURNZD SHORT
+60 pips
Trade 6:
EURJPY SHORT
This trade was successful but I missed the entry because I was asleep. You can't catch them all!
Trade 7:
NZDJPY SHORT
+100 pips
Trade 8:
USDJPY
+50 pips
Trade 9:
USDCAD
+50 pips
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +622 pips
ACTIVE TRADE/S FLOATING PROFIT/LOSS: -16 pips
What I've learned this month: If the market is bad for a long spell, it's OK. All you need is a few good trades a month to reach your profitability goal.
Happy trading everyone! I hope you've all achieved your monthly goals.
AvidTrader
Why bad psychology might be stopping you from succeedingYou are a Human. This is good.
You are capable of making complex decisions. You can identify patterns. You can enter excellent trades.
This is also bad. Between your ears is a narcotics factory that will put Heisenberg's mobile meth lab to shame.
You've entered a trade. This is it. The BIG one. A one-way ticket to infinite infinity pools.
Adrenaline dilates your pupils and switches off your digestive system. Suddenly you're not hungry anymore. Endorphins , stronger than morphine, are spewed out of the pituitary gland. Dopamine released from the middle of your brain means you can no longer hold in your excitement. This trade's a winner! Anandoline kicks in, you're hungry again. There's some the leftover beef bourguigion in the fridge. Who needs speed when you've got PEA ? Shit, the trade's gone sour! Suddenly you're anxious. It must be the serotonin .
Being Human is something we can't get away from.
But we can learn to master our mind.
A recent study by DailyFX analyzed 43 million real trades to measure trader performance. They found that across 15 most traded currency pairs, the majority of trades were successful .
Yet traders are still losing.
Why? They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades.
So if you're reading this and it applies to you, you're probably very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities. Over 50% of your trades may well be profitable. Because you're Human and you're awesome.
So how can we be more profitable?
If your trading strategy has a high strike rate, then a low risk-reward ratio will suit - but you have to let the trades play out. If you don't do this, it will ruin your trading edge. If you fall into this category, then a 1:1 or 1:2 trade will suit you fine. remember to give the trade enough room to breath. I've seen traders make amazing calls, yet they place a stop loss 10-20 pips away from their entry. This is simply not enough.
If you're not so confident with your trading strategy and you've not been consistently making winning calls, you first might want to learn from people that know more than you. Knowledge is power! The second thing you might want to do is have a slightly higher risk-reward ratio (1:2 or 1:3, even 1:4). If you fall into this category, try identifying excellent setups on the Daily or even Weekly charts. Trading on the hourly charts and expecting 1:4 trades to come in every time simply won't work.
Set your stop and take, and leave it alone.
Close your laptop and enjoy a caipirinha by the pool.
Happy trading everyone,
AvidTrader
EURGBP Short - Bearish divergenceTechnicals ( Bearish ) - Price has just tested resistance zone and showing signs of bearish momentum , the divergence provides confluence. Market is a strong down trend aswell, expecting a breakout of the 8660 area
Fundamentals ( Bearish ) - European Central Bank (ECB) signal more quantitative easing, however it is unsure whether this will be effective reducing confidence in the currency.
NZD/USD H1 Sell SetupThis is my Setup for NZD/USD. This Pair could not break the previous Resistance and is now forming a nice sell Structure / Triple Top. There is a great Risk/Reward Chance on this Pair. Now i wait for a confirmation (break on a lower Timeframe) and enter on a Breakout. Stops and Targets are shown in the Chart.
Comment your thoughts for this Pair down below.
Trade carefully and beware of USD News 24.08.16
Good Trades, Daniel
GOLD(Monthly) Decision Time
Everyone is Busy with Daily and Hourly charts,So I have stepped back and trying to shed some light on Monthly as it is at a very Crucial Decision point.
Falling Trend line from all time Highs we hit in 2011 is here to decide the faith of Gold ;)
Short Term Correction at least to $1200 is expected in coming month or two, it may not come in light of some Big Global Risk event.
Big Supply zone at $1500 - $1600 which is also a important Fib level.
Best Demand Zone from a Decade perspective is lying at $980 - $890 which again is a important fib level.
Medium Term Traders Look to Buy around $1200 levels and look for break of the falling trend line.
Long Term Investors should Buy around the marked Demand Zone as it will offer them best risk to reward ratio.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone neither Bulls Nor Bears :) I have something for everyone ;)
Take Care
GOLD(Monthly) Decision Time
Everyone is Busy with Daily and Hourly charts,So I have stepped back and trying to shed some light on Monthly as it is at a very Crucial Decision point.
Falling Trend line from all time Highs we hit in 2011 is here to decide the faith of Gold ;)
Short Term Correction at least to $1200 is expected in coming month or two, it may not come in light of some Big Global Risk event.
Big Supply zone at $1500 - $1600 which is also a important Fib level.
Best Demand Zone from a Decade perspective is lying at $980 - $890 which again is a important fib level.
Medium Term Traders Look to Buy around $1200 levels and look for break of the falling trend line.
Long Term Investors should Buy around the marked Demand Zone as it will offer them best risk to reward ratio.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone neither Bulls Nor Bears :) I have something for everyone ;)
Take Care
CADJPY Short#CADJPY the lower highs indicate that this pair is going through a down trend. The EMA is a major confluence with regards to downside movement as the 7 EMA below the 50 EMA indicate that the market is in a long term downtrend, this is followed by the 3 EMA being below the 7 EMA which indicates that the market is in a short term downtrend. The short long term down trend followed by the short term down trend means that the probability of downside movement increases!
This pair has also gone through a small phase of trending sideways (ranging market). Now this pair is approaching key levels as it has broken the support zone and has broken out of trending sideways. The daily candle being an 'up day' shows that price has had a chance to pull back, giving traders a great chance to get in the downside movement. A break of 79.2 is the target.
Intraday accumulation phase in progressI found volume spike (selling climax) in the background. The very next bar was up bar in a high volume (reversal up-thrust). This must be that demand overcame supply and that there are more buyers then sellers. Later on , we saw a successful test of supply on low volume, which is the sign that smart money is interesting in upward price. Wyckoff called this background accumulation phase. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips. First take profit level is set at the price of 1.1400. Second take profit level is set at the price of 1.1460. Of course, I will fallow price action ana volume to see if we got signs of weakness. In the case, i will close position earlier.
Cypher Pattern , Usd/Chf, 15minHere we see a cypher pattern on the Us Swiss charts.
This pattern is indicating that the market will reverse upon completion, and is supported by completing above the linear regression line.
When a Bearish pattern completes above the standard deviation line, it is likely that , If the market is bearish, the market will rally back under the line , and similar to a price action trade, come near the negative deviation line.
I have forecast the market to touch the negative deviation line , which comes out to about 4 hours from now, but it is more likely to take longer and not actually reach the deviation line, but rather just cross the linear regression taking 2 days and 7 hours.
With that said, i have placed my usual actions as the following:
Entry: point B
Limit : 1.618 extension of the BC leg
Stop: point X
Thanks for checking this out, look forward to you comments and likes, as always follow for my predictions!
Thanks and Good Trading!
Butterfly Pattern , Eur/Jpy, 30 minhere we see a Butterfly pattern forming on the Euro against the Yen.
If the pattern makes it above 136.025, the pattern will be complete, in which case i have places my entry at point B , my limit at the 1.618 extension of the BC leg , and my stop at the Red D point, because at that point , we are at roughly a 2:1 risk reward ratio, also because I am going to walk away, and if the market crosses 136.025, but doesnt make it the the Black point D, I don't want my stop further out then that structure.
I have used the linear regression line as support for my Hypothesis, the chart will show you a linear regression of the last 200 moves,(or the last 100 on the hourly). The idea here is that the harmonic is also in sync with the price action style trade, giving me a better chance at correctly identifying the next move.
Thanks for tuning in, please leave me some tips, advice, or just a plain old thumbs up! AKA like comment and follow:)
Thanks again, Good Trading
Cyhper Pattern, CAD/JPY, 30minHere we see a completed Cypher pattern on the Canada japan charts. The pattern suggest a continuation in downtrend and appears to be respecting the linear regression.
I believe that the market will rally down into the 1.618 extension of the BC leg before consolidating again, or reversing.
I have placed my entry at current market price, my stop is at the highest high of the pattern and my limit is at the 1.618 extension of the BC leg.
Check back in to see the results, as always thanks for checking this out, please like comment and follow if you agree.
Thanks and good trading!
#USDJPY Short Idea (Butterfly, Harmonics, 200sma)#USDJPY Short Idea (Butterfly, Harmonics, 200sma)
@TradeYodha
TradeYodha.com
Further my analysis which resulted in very good profits:
Analysis:
1. On higher time frame it is ultimately forming Head and shoulders pattern
2. 10 sma has gone past 200 sma and 50 sma showing high downward momentum
3. Price is not stretched away from 10 sma indicating the transition coming back to it will be slower
4. 200 sma in the zone
5. zone has 38.2 retracement level of current leg
6. If the price retraces from the zone, it may form a butterfly patter for very good targets
Trade Execution:
1. Have 3 orders
2. First order will be a limit order with approx 1:1 R/R ratio
3. Second order and the third order will be put in if we get a confirmation in the zone
4. Second order have target of 127.2 extension
5. Third order will have target at the completion of butterfly pattern at 161.8 level.
News/Fundamentals:
27 April: 1:45pm USD Flash Services PMI
27 April: 11:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y
28 April: 2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
I would love to hear your opinion, feel free to agree or disagree in your comments. Please give it a (thumsup) if it makes any sense.
#USDJPY Short Idea (Structure, Fibonacci, Head and Shoulders)#USDJPY Short Idea (Structure, Fibonacci)
@TradeYodha
TradeYodha.com
1. Is Daily chart showing us a possibility of H&S (Head and Shoulders) forming?
2. on 4H zone we have 200sma. The price has closed above 50sma so the next target can only be 200sma
3. 200sma is in an important area where there is a lot of fib confluence indicating formation of advanced patterns
4. The price is close to 70 RSI at the moment so there are chances for it to go over bought by the time it reaches the zone.
News/Fundamentals Expected:
21 April: 11:50pm JPY Trade Balance
23 April: 12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
I would love to hear your opinion, feel free to agree or disagree in your comments. Please give it a (thumsup) if it makes any sense.