Sugar - TradeI love Sugar.... I love the Dividends.
RSI had a good run, benefited from low energy costs.
I am taking profit to keep cash on the side-line for the inevitable mrkt correction.
I will re-enter below 5.65 if the fundamentals stay solid.
On Balance Volume is weakening, this could be an indicator that investors are switching to cash or trading to high flying stocks.
Ichimoku 3/5 bear
23-Nov-17 6.23 Bear Chikou Span Cross Strong
" " Bear Kijun Sen Cross Neutral
" " Bear Kumo Breakout
21-Nov-17 6.50 Bull Senkou Span Cross Neutral
" " Bull Tenkan/Kijun Cross Weak
Sugar
Sugar Futures Short?! To be or not to be?My current expectations are short in futures sugar.
- level 14
- 4 month consolidation
Target 12.85 - 13 (second monthly support S2)
Possible Scenarios for SugarAs you know, it was following a bearish channel, but consider the daily resistance line around 0.127, and the lower bullish trend line who prevented more fall of price for three times, & bad fundamental news from Brazil & India, I guess I`ll buy sugar soon-possibly after breaking the upper line of channel while moving averages confirm all this too (hopefully :). But if this won`t happen, we`ll have much more fall & maybe even the lower line of channel breaks (so dramatic!) heading for the other partial trend line. For now, we`ll wait, but if you`re love with setting up positions, set an approximate buy stop over the channel!
Has Sugar Bottomed?I just wanted to take a moment to share this bit of insight. I'll try my best to be brief in my analysis.
What you see is a continuous chart of Sugar futures. In my opinion, I'm thinking that there is a reversal in trend that is about to take place and here's why.
The first thing that you may see is the downward slopping trend channel which began in October of last year which depicted a clear bear market. In late June of this year, prices broke through the bottom of the channel and created what I consider to be an obvious selling climax. Preceding the climactic selloff was a shortening of downward thrust, which showed stopping action in the market's selling. Since then, prices have moved sideways, creating a base. One thing that stands out about this base is the fact that the supports continue to rise, which is an indication that bulls are buying at higher levels each time the price falls. As I type this, prices are at the top of the range. Does this mean that there will be a breakout? I wouldn't go that far. After all, there was a false breakout on July 31st, which was checked at the overhead resistance area of the April '17 low.
Another case for a bullish reversal, going back to the selling climax, is that the wave volume shows continuous increases in volume in the buying waves. Such action indicates that demand is overcoming supply. Something to note is how prices are pulling away from the bottom of the channel as it forms what may be an accumulative base.
Conclusion: I'm gonna have to see a strong close above not only the top of the accumulative base but also above the April '17 swing low. Such action will be a signal to get long following a pullback to test the breakout area. On another note, I find it interesting that Sugar, or any commodity for that matter, is setting up for a potential move to the upside as the U.S. Dollar is about to make a strong move to the upside as well. A strong dollar is usually bearish for commodities, but hey, we can only listen to what the charts tell us, right?
Has Sugar Bottomed?I just wanted to take a moment to share this bit of insight. I'll try my best to be brief in my analysis.
What you see is a continuous chart of Sugar futures. In my opinion, I'm thinking that there is a reversal in trend that is about to take place and here's why.
The first thing that you may see is the downward slopping trend channel which began in October of last year which depicted a clear bear market. In late June of this year, prices broke through the bottom of the channel and created what I consider to be an obvious selling climax. Preceding the climactic selloff was a shortening of downward thrust, which showed stopping action in the market's selling. Since then, prices have moved sideways, creating a base. One thing that stands out about this base is the fact that the supports continue to rise, which is an indication that bulls are buying at higher levels each time the price falls. As I type this, prices are at the top of the range. Does this mean that there will be a breakout? I wouldn't go that far. After all, there was a false breakout on July 31st, which was checked at the overhead resistance area of the April '17 low.
Another case for a bullish reversal, going back to the selling climax, is that the wave volume shows continuous increases in volume in the buying waves. Such action indicates that demand is overcoming supply. Something to note is how prices are pulling away from the bottom of the channel as it forms what may be an accumulative base.
Conclusion: I'm gonna have to see a strong close above not only the top of the accumulative base but also above the April '17 swing low. Such action will be a signal to get long following a pullback to test the breakout area. On another note, I find it interesting that Sugar, or any commodity for that matter, is setting up for a potential move to the upside as the U.S. Dollar is about to make a strong move to the upside as well. A strong dollar is usually bearish for commodities, but hey, we can only listen to what the charts tell us, right?
Sugar at its lowsDear mgrzegorzak,
Thanks for your little request and sorry for late reply.
Here is our analysis about sugar. For rising prices in Sugar indicates the following aspects:
increasing trend line
CoT report of the Non Commercials
Seasonlality
current support at 13,70
Long CandyIDEA: Expecting long move with support at 14127 @ Daily Average pivot & resistance @ Daily S2 pivot 14538 . Looking for Fibonacci support along the way to confirm the trend move. If daily average fails, expecting further support at 14049.
DISCLAIMER:
This is where I practice ideas and work on my trading techniques. Please note I am only providing my own trading information for insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal. Trade at your own risk.
SUGAR, at the test of the Simple Moving Average 89SUGAR, at the test of the Simple Moving Average 89
SUGAR, at the test of the Simple Moving Average 89
, at 14.32 on the future SBV2017,
in case of daily closing over 14.32, the big speculators will enter long
making a raise with targets around 16 cents.
SUGAR SBV17 - Oct '17
CROC X1 - Supports / Resistances - Multiday (TF - 1H)
R3 = 16.17
R2 = 16.05
R1 = 15.53
PIVOT = 14.82
S1 = 14.10
S2 = 13.89
S3 = 13.85
CROC X3 - Last Signal (Long Term - TF 1D)
LONG from 13.67
since 09/06/2017
Sugar Long - finally bottoming?Nice candle today if gains hold. First minor downtrend broken. Oversold on larger timeframes (daily, weekly, even monthly)
COT bullish -> MM / Large Specs short, Commercials long
Wait for current extreme to cool down ~ +5% and look for long entry. SL below the lows.
Good Trading!
SUGAR Commodity LONG- Advanced Pattern formation of Bat completion at D leg at 88% fib
- Structure to the left
- Potential double bottom at daily chart
- Fundamental news of 2017 May of Sugar and World Markets and Trade stating record global production keeps consumption of Sugar near record high.
- RSI divergence upwards
Sugar (SB1) should be close to completing wave 3 I'm looking for wave 3 to complete at 12.67, where wave v of 3 will be 61.8% the length of wave i thru wave iii subtracted from the top of wave iv. It should just be a matter of time before wave 3 completes and a corrective rally in wave 4 takes over.
As the correction in wave 2 corrected a large part of wave 1, we should expect wave 4 to only correct a minor part of wave 3. A 38.2% correction of wave 3 will see wave 4 moving up to 16.03 before turning lower again in wave 5 towards 9.98.
Regarding the corrective pattern of wave 4 it should turn into either a flat or a triangle to alternate from wave 2.
Sugar: Potential trend reversalI am looking at Sugar futures here, it looks like we could be seeing an interesting rally coming out of this recent drop.
Oil rallying certainly lifts all commodities , and I think this one offers a particularly nice risk/reward. Ideally you can wait for a new 'Time at Mode' signal to enter, or just rush into it at the open, and then add when applicable.
Best of luck if entering longs.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.