Elliott Wave Analysis: SUGARDaily chart of Sugar gives us a nice idea of a large impulsive move taking place from August of 2015 lows. As we see on the chart, price could now be in red wave (3), specifically in sub-wave 4, which can find its support later this summer around the area of a formal blue wave iv, where even some Fibonacci ratios of 38.2 and 50.0 can act as turning points higher.
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Sugar
Weighted Basket of 5 Agri Commoditeis - Hyperinflation Coming*EDIT in text quote on left of chart - *Synchronicity in between
I have created an equally weighted portfolio of 5 sustenance based commodities including Soybean, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Wheat, and Maize (continuous fwd contracts). This is an update to the first chart I have published (rough rice) which isn't updating for some reason but if you see the RR1! graph on another website you will see that my analysis is 100% on point so far and even identifies exact msp level prior to breakout. I am expecting sustenance based commodity hyperinflation in the coming years as we enter a macroeconomic environment that the economics textbooks have never described. The money manager commitment data points to breakout, technicals show clear range suppression and evident accumulation pointing to impeding breakout. Global trade statistics are abysmal, statistics of subprime/consumer debt/corporate debt delinquencies are abysmal, PE ratios of leading equity markets are abysmal. I do not wish for this to happen because this will affect billions of people but this is most likely what is going to happen. Best of luck.
Sugar going sidewaysSideway action as the trend slope of the trend has become steeper.
Not saying the uptrend is over, but stalling, especially since RSI and Stochastik start to indicate some divergence.
Short call spreads seems to be good risk/reward IMHO.
Wouldn't be buying puts as the premium will deteriorate as long as the market doesn't sell off.
Sugar: Topping against a monthly modeSugar is at a very interesting spot for a short trade. Although this is an aggressive entry, the potential reward makes the trade be worth a try. We have a clear sentiment extreme, and rgmov alerts of hidden selling, plotting lower lows when the market is going for a sharp climactic ascent. We also have divergence in CCI, so you could consider shorts if the next day turns down. Either sell under the last daily close, or short any new daily low. Stops should be over 17.62 as a bare minimum.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Sugar : Bullish Price Action In Full ProgressOn the Daily chart of Sugar, price is trading in a three wave action. We are more and more viewing this three wave action as a new bullish cycle, because of a broken upper channel line and a very sharp action in current wave (iii) . That said price could be facing a correction in blue wave (iv) in days ahead before market will continue even higher within impulse.
Links to our previous updates on this Commodity :
SB Bullish, still on trackStill bullish SB as it appreciated over the past month. It really gained momentum has it had to break out from oversold conditions.
What happened over the course was the term structure (future spreads) are now in backwardation for the entire next year. This leaves me with remaining bullish as it foreshadows supply tightness coming out of Brazil.
Also the USDBRL has come off of its highs and could provide some further support for a rally
Sugar May have Found A Bottom On the Daily chart of Sugar we see that price has made five blue waves to the downside, completing an impulsive structure of a higher degree. That said we think that Sugar may have found a bottom, at least temporary, because rally from the lows needs to be structured by three waves. Currently we see wave (c) in play back to the area of a former wave (iv) - 12.83.
www.ew-forecast.com
SB#11 - Get ready to “dive the five” I still do not like longs on most of ags, unless you aim short term and get orthodox with your stops. Since my previous post about one month ago (see link below), SB11 is keeping its pace moving downstairs. At this point in time I see no signs of reversal, instead, my reading says we are about to “dive the five”. What comes after that remains to be seen.
It is true that technically this fourth wave could hike up to the 13.50-ish level, however, I don’t think going long at this point has a good risk/reward ratio. I believe one would be better off building shorts from here and keeping an eye on possible DX reversal.
Sugar Futures: an often overlooked market you can swing trade IIThis is part 2 of a post I did in September 2013. Nothing has changed, really. The same MACD signals produce good profits. Sugar futures are traded on the ICE exchange and any futures brokes can give you access.
The margin requirement is $950. When MACD crosses positive on the daily I plan to go long.
COKE - ShortShorting Coca-Cola bottling company.
Why?
Price is near 52 week high.
Recent strong rally in price, on no news.
Price stopped accelerating upward, slowing/stopping (bulls are done).
Consumer sentiment for sugary beverages continues to fall.
Biggest sales are Europe which is currently burning the Euro.
Price targets
* 100
* 91
I'm not confident on the price targets, but I am fairly confident on the overall direction turning from up to down.
SB #11 possible A-B-C correctionThe awesome oscillator shows the downward trend is over by divergence between the 3 and 5. The next move appears to be the a-b-c correction that would form a wave A.
Fibo ratios are in place suggesting the next possible targets. Weekly chart turning bullish with MACD divergence.
I know the big drop today is somehow scaring (good volume tho), so to be on the “safe-side” I would suggest buying at levels close to today’s high with a stop-loss somewhere on the channeling (in light gray).
Bottom line: The end of a downward trend is clear and it gives a good opportunity to trade a correction wave with reasonably low risk.
Sugar #11 Sell Stop at 16.25 looking for 10 - 15 ticksTwo down bars at a top with a price gap below $16 makes me think a third down bar will happen.
SUgar market opens tonight around midnight PDT (CALIF) so I will have to set my alarm.......
Raw Sugar (SB) Confirms Double Bottom @ Descending Wedge SupportSB has just completed a double bottom with its 2010 low at .13 (on the spot price chart - go to stockcharts.com, pull up a 5yr weekly chart using symbol $sugar). Also key is the strong bounce off of support at an increasingly narrowing descending wedge. The March15 contract has lagged behind the October14 contract in this week's rally so far, but I am expecting March15 to catch up soon with open interest rolling into the March (and March showing heavier volume yesterday). Adding to my bullish tilt is the weekly RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics all turning up now. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $SB_F, $KC_F, $ZC_F, $ZW_F, $NG_F, $VIX_F, $NQ_F, $NFLX, $ES_F, $TSLA, $USDJPY, $EURUSD
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