Get started

Sugar

Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheatAgricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared. However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level. It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar. Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons. However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support. Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook. Tighter supply on the global sugar market Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane. In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production. This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop. The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market. Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe. The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices. Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons. Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market. Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023 2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022 3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022
CBOT:ZW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 23.86 Pivot: 21.89 Support: 21.02 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to rise from the pivot at 21.89 before heading towards the resistance at 23.86, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the overlap support at 21.02, slightly below where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 21.18 Pivot: 18.94 Support: 20.04 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 21.18, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the overlap support at 20.04, slightly below where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
SB1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 20.10, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 20.49, slightly above where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and minor high is. Take profit will be at 18.94, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by VantageMarkets
Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Sugar No. 11 Futures ( SB1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 21.18 Pivot: 18.94 Support: 19.30 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SB1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 19.30, slightly below where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up towards the resistance at 21.18, where the 5previous swing high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Jan 11,22-Sugar-Nice Selling SetupI'm a little late for this trade, but I feel it's not too too late. THis is the classic setup - you can see the recent high was 21 and the recent low is 19. Then price action bounced back up to hit 20 - the midway mark - If I had looked at this chart yesterday, I would have put a Sell Order in at 20 and I'd be in good shape already. Anyway, I put in a Sell ORder for 19.5. Obviously if price action continues to rise this week and it hits 20 again, I will move my Sell Order up to take advatage and sell at 20. Price should drop down to 18 or so by end of Jan. Heiko
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by HEIKOTradingSystem
Entering long in Sugar futures We have entered long in Sugar futures. This position is not validated with all the patterns of our TTW system, so the percentage of liquidity assigned to the series of positions is very low. Using our algorithmic trend-following system, Sugar futures are at 3-year highs, with an RSI of 63.57 on the weekly chart, and 65.64 on the monthly chart. The asset has broken one horizontal resistance and is above the 210, 70 and 14 SMAs, with a crossover between the 14 and 70 SMAs. We have targets around 24 in the coming months, but there is a high probability of a pullback. In the event of a pullback, we could re-enter. Position : Entry: Market price Guaranteed trailing stop loss: 0.4% of the portfolio. Target: 24-25. Financial Engineering: Futures (without OTC derivatives)
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by blockmas
Forecast SUGAR#FOOD #SUGAR Cheap sugar is only in our dreams. At the moment, the accumulation phase is nearing its end. The technical figure "flag" begins to be traced, the exit of the market from which, according to the canon, should take place upwards. The first target will be the resistance level ~24. Its breakdown will send futures with a high degree of probability to cross the global level at 39, which is approximately x2 from current prices. This is possible if the world system plunges into hyperinflation, the signal for which is already given by the actions of central banks (yesterday's post on the Bank of England). Under such a scenario, it would be wise to buy food and essentials at current prices.
PEPPERSTONE:SUGARLong
by airstels
Playing with sugarLet's start with observing 2W chart, here we can see that: 1) price has been grinding across the trendline, which acted as resistance 2) following rejection at the resistance, we had a move down to ~0.174 range which formed a strong support 3) If the week closes at 0.18335 or higher, we have an official breakout from this sub-structure and impulse should take it to the former high, above 0.2. __________________________________ 2D chart clearly demonstrates how the price has just broken through the resistance line. The next logical target is indeed the range between 0.2 and 0.22. _________________________________ Let's zoom out further, monthly chart. Observing this chart, I would presume that there will be a battle to take out resistance over 0.2, but after that is broken we will likely see a significant run toward old highs, between 0.31 and 0.35.
OANDA:SUGARUSDLong
by Owcheew8
1