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Sugar11

LONG SUGAR @ 10.48Technical Analysis: - Double Bottom at 10.45 from August 2015 - Oversold on daily/weekly timeframes - Retest of 5monthSMA likely @ 11.50 Fundamental Analysis: - Look for Brazil Real bounce against USD - this will lead to less selling for $ and more domestic demand in Brazil - Higher lows since 1985 reflecting growing demand - Higher energy means more domestic demand in Brazil - El Nino Weather Pattern could damper production in Brazil and India
SLong
by CashFlo_Trading
2
SB Sugar resting at monthly support levels?That grains started moving up recently from historically low prices based on a ratio of grains / S&P500 + the on going bear market in the US Dollar may help trigger bull markets in other commodities. Nothing is for certain, that's for sure, but looking at a chart of sugar dating back to late 1950's do tell the recent lows have come at historic turning points. Huge short positions also make this story more attractive. Will the same story repeat itself or was past days just a blip? Preferably I would like to see broader strength in soft commodities as a group, but this may be in it's infancy. Time will tell!
SLong
by AlexLaan
ATH? Really?Central banks kept on printing money can have unwanted effect in the intrinsic value of money. With one of the function of money to store value and stock market was valued in fiat money (USD), we need to revisit what if S&P 500 valued in barter transaction with Sugar #11 (raw sugar). For sure, who does not know sugar? Everyone use sugar. From the bottom to the top of the wealth pyramid. So, let's say sugar is our new world currency now, replacing USD. From the chart, you can see that just before the 2008 economic crisis, we spotted a decrease of SPX value relative to sugar for more than 2 years. Now, as we just recently reached ATH for US indices (in USD denomination), relative to Dow Jones UBS Commodity index, actually it looks more like a declining top (look at the 2 yellow boxes). So, it is not only for sugar, but also relative to this index. So, back to the essence of stock valuation, what is actually a stock? It is part of ownership, given to the holder, with promise of earning payment, while in the event of bankruptcy, nothing left for the stockholder. Currently, valued in declining currency value relative to common commodity products, what would be next? Perhaps better to just hold the real things, which are commodities for now. Not just a legal promise with declining fundamental valuation. Additionally, Greenspan has called stagflation lately (www.bloomberg.com). Perhaps, what he has seen is while commodity prices picking up, financial market values decreasing relative to common commodity prices, labor wages not picking up significantly with low GDP growth observed, this looks like going for stagflation. Detailed explanation of DUBS: www.djindexes.com)
FX:SPX500
by giorsims
3