Sugar #11; Dire StraitsIt is the case once again for the typical, alternating, virtually daily news bites, decrying "world sugar deficits", "Brazilian yield collapse (due to drought; El Nino)", "record Brazilian Real strength", "rising crude oil prices" versus "record Brazilian harvests", "strengthening USD" and "falling crude prices due to recession fears". The song remains the same.
In reality;
- Brazilian harvest prospects are doing just fine;
- The recent Brazilian Real strength is likely experiencing it's end of days;
- Crude oil prices, fundamentally and technically, have a far better chance to turn south than otherwise. (See this post; )
Now, factor in the clearly (very) bearish technical outlook while also noting significant short covering, as of late. E.g., the makings of very favorable SHORT Entry here.
The Daily;
With last week's 5 strait days of breaking lower.
Sugarsetup
Sugar - SHORT; SELL it here!Sugar will have an awful hard time to go any higher here, climbing into multi-year major resistance. A sustained decline should take Sugar substantially lower into year's end.
Ample grain and bio-fuel stocks are also a prelude to an over-supply imbalance. (Not to mention substantially lower crude oil prices on the horizon.) This is a low-risk spot to initiate a long term SHORT .
SUGAR SHORT D1 UPDATE - DOUBLE TOP REVERSAL COMING?Hey traders, this is the update for the Sugar trade that I am still currently in.
Looks like price has come back up to the green trend line before reversing.
Looking left we see that price reached this exact area before, creating a potential double top pattern.
If you did not enter before, now would be a great time with a risk to reward of 3.
If price can break the neckline bears will be in full control.
The moving averages are also looking like a bearish cross soon on the MACD.
Daily trade analysis and ideas:
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