SUGAR
SUGAR NO11 Short-term analysis of Sugar no11. Including 2 statistical charts showing the % monthly price changes over the last 5 years and a chart detailing the occurrence of consecutive positive and negative days "candles" and their frequency over 12 months.
- I expect more selling in July and then a rebound in August.
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Sugar Futures Falling WedgeI think that the indicator I have developed is working really well in sugar futures. From this point of view and due to the fact that sugar futures have a wedge, I think that there is an initial upside potential of 7% and then if the wedge is broken, I think that sugar futures can go up to $23.
Oh Sugar! SB1!ICEUS:SB1! Oh sugar!
Looking expensive in my humble opinion!
Lows: 24.25 Highs: 27.30
We had the bullish flag formation, ever since then we been riding higher but it's at key Fib area and resistance zone! I expect sugar to pull back a little to next lows. However, we could still reach 30 area!
Have a great day ahead,
Trade Journal!
SUGAR BULISH SCENARIOPrice boost and upward momentum on Raw Sugar, after India declared that a downward revision on its sugar cane crush. Being the second largest manufacturer of sugar in the world, this news had a positive effect on the price of the raw material.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the current trend. If it continues, the price might reach levels of 25.539
As a pivot point levels of 22.43 can be used, and if the price breaks below it, can test levels of 21.58
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Jan 11,22-Sugar-Nice Selling SetupI'm a little late for this trade, but I feel it's not too too late.
THis is the classic setup - you can see the recent high was 21 and the recent low is 19. Then price action bounced back up to hit 20 - the midway mark - If I had looked at this chart yesterday, I would have put a Sell Order in at 20 and I'd be in good shape already.
Anyway, I put in a Sell ORder for 19.5. Obviously if price action continues to rise this week and it hits 20 again, I will move my Sell Order up to take advatage and sell at 20.
Price should drop down to 18 or so by end of Jan.
Heiko
Forecast SUGAR#FOOD #SUGAR
Cheap sugar is only in our dreams.
At the moment, the accumulation phase is nearing its end. The technical figure "flag" begins to be traced, the exit of the market from which, according to the canon, should take place upwards.
The first target will be the resistance level ~24.
Its breakdown will send futures with a high degree of probability to cross the global level at 39, which is approximately x2 from current prices.
This is possible if the world system plunges into hyperinflation, the signal for which is already given by the actions of central banks (yesterday's post on the Bank of England).
Under such a scenario, it would be wise to buy food and essentials at current prices.
Playing with sugarLet's start with observing 2W chart, here we can see that:
1) price has been grinding across the trendline, which acted as resistance
2) following rejection at the resistance, we had a move down to ~0.174 range which formed a strong support
3) If the week closes at 0.18335 or higher, we have an official breakout from this sub-structure and impulse should take it to the former high, above 0.2.
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2D chart clearly demonstrates how the price has just broken through the resistance line. The next logical target is indeed the range between 0.2 and 0.22.
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Let's zoom out further, monthly chart.
Observing this chart, I would presume that there will be a battle to take out resistance over 0.2, but after that is broken we will likely see a significant run toward old highs, between 0.31 and 0.35.
🍭Sugar fever! Top of the trend ?● Sugar #11 - ICE (SB.F) 🕐 TF: 30D
Fig.1 USX lb (pound)
In Figure 1 , you can see the wave count from January 2021 . A continuation of the upward correction Ⓑ with the target zone 18.04-21.27 was predicted. At the moment, the set goal has been achieved, the corrective wave looks completed. The probability of resuming the decline by the final impulse Ⓒ of e of (IV) is high.
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● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 1D
Fig.2
An alternative wave count is marked in black, in which the minimum of 2020 , the level of 0.9051 , corresponds to the top of the supercycle (IV) . This counting option will become more relevant if the subsequent series of ascending zigzags, which at this stage is marked as (W)-(X)-(Y) of Ⓑ , takes the form of a diagonal .
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● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 4h
Fig.3
Provided that waves (1)-(2) are formed as part of the emerging bearish trend, the first of which goes beyond the top (X) and consolidates under the lower border of the rising channel, there will be a good prospect for a short position.
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Sugar likely going higher from hereSugar hasn't moved much in the commodity space but it looks like that's about to change
The quarterly chart is especially interesting as it's been bull flagging above a key historical level - the 18 cent mark, which also corresponds with the 50 week moving average support - so there's your risk perfectly defined. You could also argue it's flagging outside of a massive multi-decade symmetrical triangle (not as relevant imo but interesting).
$MSM with upside potential of 70% ??
Technical Wise:
After breaking out of the downtrend, it has been consolidating with healthy volume. Price also moving in higher low while the share price holding above 200-EMA. With this formation, I am expecting to see the price to challange recent high again and has upside potential of 70% which can meet RM 2.7, in mid-to-long term.
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I believe Malaysian sure has clues of brand of Gula Prai, and the company behind that is MSM, which they produce produces, markets and sells refined sugar products. After years down-trending, finally the share price finally break made a comeback in after FEB2021 , followed by good financial turnaround for 4Q2020 after 2 years of loss-making.
I remain bullish with the counter as the trading setup has sparks my interest. On its prospects wise:
🍬 The positive earnings can be sustained as the recovery of domestic sales as economy reopens and more socioeconomic activities leading to more product consumption including sugar.
🍬 Room to grow for the current utilisation rate of 47%, which the company aimed to grow the rate above 50% as mentioned in AR2020. This shall better improve efficiency and result in lower refining and production cost.
🍬 Increasing exposure potential in exports would benefit MSM, as the global sugar retail price has gone up. This put their exports segment to better margin given that they are able to sell at higher price. As in Malaysia, sugar price has capped at ceiling price of RM 2.85 per kg, if any news to revise the capped price would be good for MSM in general.
🍬 Good hedging position in raw sugar price. As the global raw sugar price has gone up to 19usd, it would not reduce MSM margin because the group has fully hedged its raw sugar for 2021 at 0.13-0.14 usd/lbs while 85% of for 2022 at 0.16-0.17 usd/lbs. It can secure better margin for MSM.