SUGAR
Sugar (SUGAR/USD) Daily Chart Analysis 10/18Technical Analysis and Outlook
Sugar closed at $1281 on Wednesday busting though Key Resistance $1268 . Prices are closing nearer the Sugar Rally $1327 each trading day. Profit taking may pull down the soft commodity to Mean Support $1236 following striking a four-month high $1302 today. The bulls hold the over-all near-term technical edge, since the prices are in a steep uptrend, as awaiting Sugar Rally $1327 will be struck any day.
Sugar Is MAD! Time to calm down, but just for a bit! After a huge sell-off it is time for the sugar to shine. We have a big 1 week candle and huge 1 month candle so far. But as it grew so fast and furious it needs to calm down a bit. I am proposing a trade based on RSI and closing top of the channel and 13$ . In the upcoming week we will move in the area of 12-13 $.
Short: 12.7 - 13 area (I have opened a short, and open another one if we go up)
Stop Loss 13.1
Target1 11.8$. Target 2: 11.5$
Timeframe - 1-2 weeks . We will keep the big monthly green candle!
When we hot 11.8 I will go green for chasing the 15$ next month!
Good luck!
LONG SUGAR @ 10.48Technical Analysis:
- Double Bottom at 10.45 from August 2015
- Oversold on daily/weekly timeframes
- Retest of 5monthSMA likely @ 11.50
Fundamental Analysis:
- Look for Brazil Real bounce against USD - this will lead to less selling for $ and more domestic demand in Brazil
- Higher lows since 1985 reflecting growing demand
- Higher energy means more domestic demand in Brazil
- El Nino Weather Pattern could damper production in Brazil and India
BUY SUGARPros
Double bottom
First high low
Test of the last
Weakness of the dollar this week.
Above the uptrend on the weekly timeframe.
Bullish on longterm.
Correction of 38.2/50 of the last bearish wave.
Cons
The objective of the formation is too aggresive.
The commoditie index is at a resistance level + divergences.
Countertrend on daily timeframe.
Strategy
Buy when the price break the resistance level at 0.116.
I prefer to manage the stop dinamically, moving it to the last low, instead of wait for the whole TP. The position is too aggresive.
SUGAR - USSugar is nearing its bottom and looks to give a reversal in the coming week's. Expected price close for the 2nd Quarter is around 12.50/13$