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10/11 Can positive earnings season secure BTC Pumpctober?Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its bullish streak, hitting a new all-time high and marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. But what’s fueling all this excitement? Just a few weeks ago, concerns about World War III and a looming recession were dominating the headlines. Now, it seems like the market is brushing off those fears. Pumping the AMEX:SPY means pushing up the stocks that make up the index, which suggests an improvement in their earnings, particularly net margins. Conveniently, earnings season typically starts in mid-October and runs through late October and early November. This past week, giants like PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all reported earnings—and they all beat analysts' expectations. What’s notable about this group is its diversity: from consumer staples like food and beverages to airlines, signaling strong consumer purchasing power, to investment and banking companies, which are more dependent on macroeconomic factors and the Federal Reserve’s decisions. These companies, often beneficiaries of quantitative easing, could be the early indicators of a trend. With such a strong start, we might expect more companies to continue beating estimates, setting the stage for what we’re calling "Pumpctober." In the coming week, we’ll hear from other banking giants like Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Healthcare heavyweights like Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group are also on the docket, along with Netflix. You can find the full list and earnings calendar here: www.ii.co.uk So, let’s sum it up: the market is surging, consumer spending seems robust, and on Friday, Jerome Powell reported higher-than-expected CPI and core CPI. It feels like the economy is running hot, but that also means no immediate need for an interest rate cut. What clouds the picture slightly is a higher-than-expected number of jobless claims—258k compared to the expected 230k, and higher than the previous 225k. If unemployment continues to rise, it could impact company earnings by Q1 and Q2 of 2025. For now, though, we’re all in on Pumpctober, with a 90% chance of an interest rate cut in November, up from 82%. ETF Flow: The big players aren’t buying BINANCE:BTCUSD or BINANCE:ETHUSDT . Retail investors are. BlackRock and Grayscale are still sitting on the sidelines. BTC TA: W: Bitcoin is barely holding onto the Bollinger Band MA and remains below the weekly and daily levels of $64 k. It’s also under the 2024 yearly point of control (Volume Profile indicator) level of $63.2k. However, we noticed that the current price is very close to the closing levels of the last two quarterly candles—June and September both closed at $62.6k. Until it breaks below $61.4k, we can’t call it bearish just yet. D: Thursday’s close below the key $60.5k level appeared to signal a breakout, but BTC quickly retraced, turning that breakdown into a fake-out. If the stock market keeps rallying, some of that liquidity and optimism could spill over into crypto, completing a bullish flag pattern. Saturday is showing some bullish momentum, but we need today’s candle to close above $62.8k to confirm a higher high. 4h: On this time frame, Bitcoin is battling strong resistance at $63k. It’s unlikely we’ll see significant movement on a Saturday, as market makers tend to be less active, but if BTC fails to break out from $63k, it would confirm a bearish trend, and shorting from here could offer a good entry point. 1h: On Friday, we saw 7 consecutive hours of aggressive buying starting at 9 am NYC time, with volume doubling the average and pushing BTC from $61.1k to $63k, a 3.19% jump. Alts Relative to BTC: What was a lower low for BTC was a higher low for ETH, SOL, NEAR, and BNB, which is a bullish sign. However, none of these alts have established a higher high, which cancels out the bullish sentiment. The best move for now is to avoid taking positions until there’s a major breakout with confirmation. Bull Case: We could be on the verge of a trend reversal, breaking the bullish flag pattern. Both the US and Chinese economies are about to be flooded with cheaper money, which could flow into speculative assets like crypto. Bear Case: This is an ideal moment to short BTC if it fails to reclaim resistance and turn it into support. The deadline for confirmation is Sunday evening. Fear and Greed Index: 43, back to Neutral. Prediction: All eyes are on Sunday, 9 pm EST and 6 pm PST, when Asian traders will return to their desks. Expect increased volatility as bulls and bears clash. Mistakes: Both SUI and TAO have continued to pump higher despite lower volumes and volatile price swings of around 15%. If it establishes a higher high, stalls and you short - at least you can trade the range while BTC decides its direction.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/9 Good news and bad news...Overview: Which would you prefer to hear first? Let’s start with the good news: the AMEX:SPY has updated its all-time high. If you have a 401k or any other pension fund, you’re likely seeing gains. Also, it's hard to argue that a recession is looming when the stock market is booming. Now for the bad news: crypto is down. Normally, this wouldn’t be alarming, as all markets fluctuate. But it's concerning when we see a divergence between the stock market and crypto. Even riskier tech stocks, like those in the NASDAQ:QQQ index, climbed 0.79%. If traders are eager to buy equities, why not crypto, or at least BINANCE:BTCUSD ? Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he delivers the CPI and Core CPI data along with initial jobless claims. Given that recent job reports nearly doubled expectations, we predict fewer jobless claims. The question is: will positive macroeconomic data help? On one hand, it means people have money to spend, which could benefit crypto. On the other hand, it could reduce the chances of aggressive rate cuts, keeping liquidity constrained, and preventing speculative assets from soaring. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin but hasn’t touched its ETH ETF. When did ETH become so hated? CME fedwatch tool shows an increase in the probability of no rate cut in November, up to 17.2%, while the chances of a one-base-point cut sit at 82.2%. BTC TA: W: BTC needs to close above $61.4k to keep bulls in the game. Unfortunately, after today's drop, BTC fell below this crucial level, breaking the bullish structure it had been building since September 7th. Another important level is $62.7k, the point of control for the entire 2024 bull run, which was rejected yesterday. This week is shaping up to print another red candle, following the previous week. D: While the weekly levels are invalidated, the daily levels still offer hope. BTC bounced from the $60.6k support level, and we haven’t seen four consecutive red days since August. If tomorrow's CPI data hints at a bullish sentiment, we might see a small rally back to $62.1k. 4h: Price is currently closer to the lowest Bollinger Band, indicating it needs to catch up with its moving average. 1h: BTC has reached the Bollinger Bands' moving average, but for a stronger recovery, it needs to break beyond this level on the 4h chart to confirm a bounce. Alts Relative to BTC: TAO, SUI, and APT have reached higher highs, but with lower volumes, suggesting that the bullish trend is losing steam. These gains were likely driven by retail investors, FOMOing into the rally. Meanwhile, FTM is showing bearish MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart and was rejected at its weekly resistance of $0.69. Bull Case: At $60k, BTC is relatively cheap, considering how much adoption and recognition crypto has gained in 2024. Since we didn’t experience a massive sell-off in September and have held up into October, this might be your last chance to buy BTC at a sub-$100k price. Additionally, we’re in the Fear territory on the Fear and Greed Index, which historically offers an 83% chance of profitability if bought during this phase. Bear Case: From a technical perspective, things look bearish. Many key support levels have been invalidated, and the likelihood of the Fed not cutting rates in November continues to rise. Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear). Prediction: BTC may rebound to $62.1k before resuming its decline. Expect TAO, SUI, and APT to follow BTC's movements, with a potential drop back to pre-BTC ETF levels, which could see declines of 55-60%. Opportunities: Short TAO, SUI, APT, FTM.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
Phemex Analysis #27: SUI _ Will It Continue Soar or Sink?After its initial surge, PHEMEX:SUIUSDT.P has been locked in a battle with resistance. Breaking through one hurdle after another, it has now found itself staring at the formidable wall of its all-time high, $2.18. A recent retracement has brought it back to $1.88, leaving investors pondering its next move. The Road Ahead: A Tale of Three Scenarios Breaking Free : The most optimistic scenario would see SUI shatter the $2.18 resistance with a surge of volume. This could propel it to even higher heights, igniting a new wave of bullish sentiment. A Bearish Turn : However, the market has shown signs of weakness. A second one-day high accompanied by a RSI divergence suggests that a bearish reversal might be brewing. If SUI falls below the $1.60 support level with significant volume, a downward spiral could ensue. The Waiting Game : A more likely scenario is a period of consolidation. SUI might hold the $1.70 support level while investors patiently await a clear breakout signal. Impatience can be a trader's enemy in such situations. The Path Forward As SUI navigates this critical juncture, patience and careful analysis are key. While the potential for further gains is undeniable, the risk of a reversal cannot be ignored. Traders must weigh the potential rewards against the risks and make informed decisions. Tips: Trade Smarter, Not Harder with Phemex. Benefit from cutting-edge features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments. Our unique scaled order system and iceberg order functionality give you a competitive edge. Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
by Phemex
Sui (SUI): how close is a new ATH?Sui (SUI) price has recently experienced a notable rise in market value, standing out even as the broader cryptocurrency market struggles. Over the past week, SUI has defied the downturn, continuing its upward momentum after being one of the top-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies in September. The token saw a remarkable 100% increase last month, and the rally carried over into October, with SUI coming close to setting a new all-time high on October 7. In addition, SUI drew more attention after surpassing Solana in daily transaction volume, further solidifying its growing presence in the market. After a market surge over the past few days, the SUI price has experienced a notable drop, slipping by 5.90% to $1.94 at press time. The digital asset, which recently hit a 24-hour low of $1.94 and a high of $2.13, has seen some fluctuations, reflecting a volatile trading day. The Sui price hit an all-time high of $2.18 on March 27, 2024, marking a 10.5% decrease from its peak. The Sui price is facing resistance around the $2 mark. However, improving market conditions might support a push towards this level soon. If the coin reaches $2.18, it would mark a significant increase of nearly 10% from its current value. Such a move could bring the cryptocurrency closer to its all-time high (ATH), potentially sparking renewed investor interest. The current Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) value is 0.01, indicating a neutral market sentiment. It recently showed a bullish trend before flattening out. While the Sui price has pulled back slightly from its recent highs, the continued growth in transactions and DeFi activity suggests the potential for further gains. With resistance near $2 and increasing interest from key platforms, Sui remains a token to watch, especially if it makes another push toward its all-time high.
Long
by paul_endeo
10/8 Market Tensions as S&P500 Wobbles Ahead of CPI, BTC Holds.Overview: The AMEX:SPY is hovering around its all-time highs, showing limited movement as investors await Thursday’s CPI report. Anticipation is building, but it seems the U.S. market may not make any significant moves until inflation data provides clearer direction. BTC TA: W: When examining the volume profile of this year's entire bull phase, the point of control—where the most trading volume occurred—stands at $63 K. This explains why BINANCE:BTCUSDT might consolidate at the current price range for longer than expected. Despite a second false breakout attempt, Bitcoin remains trapped between the crucial monthly support level of $61.4K and resistance at $64 K. On one hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, while on the other, China's government has announced a $28 billion investment package. The SSE Composite Index surged 30%, though it recently corrected by 11% over the last two days. Notably, some of the significant green candles can be attributed to Asian market open times. D: The daily chart paints a clear picture of the price struggling to escape bearish pressure. It’s hovering just below the Bollinger Bands’ moving average. Monday presented a bearish hammer, and Tuesday ended with an indecisive doji. 4h: No divergences are evident on the MACD or CVD. The RSI sits around 45, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. 1h: Price is oscillating around the $62.2K point of control level without any strong signals for bullish or bearish momentum. Alts relative to BTC: Major altcoins are moving in line with Bitcoin, with little divergence. However, SUI and TAO, after their impressive runs to all-time highs, have begun to correct. Bull case: If Trump is re-elected, accompanied by more interest rate cuts, this could boost the bullish narrative. The bull flag on the weekly chart is becoming more apparent and, if it breaks out, could signal a further upward trend. The formation of a reverse head and shoulders at the beginning of July, August, and September also supports a bullish outlook. Bear case: However, bears point out that we’re still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The double fake bull breakouts in recent upticks further signal caution. The market lacks new narratives, and regulatory crackdowns continue. Major CEXs now require strict KYC compliance, cutting off trading access for users in China, the UK, the U.S., and other key markets. While VPNs offer a workaround, the risks of locked accounts on exchanges registered in jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands add significant risk for traders. Fear and Greed Index: 41.71 - Neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SUI - Possible Pullback to $1.20 to $1SUI Network skyrocketed and has recently been the most hyped coin. In our last update, we anticipated a breakout when it was trading around $1 SUI has just undergone 83 million USD worth of token unlocks. Technical Outlook: With CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance rising as Bitcoin corrects, we expect a broader pullback. On the weekly timeframe, price has hit a significant resistance level. 4-hour timeframe: There was a strong rejection, and it is now trading around the daily Point of Control (dPOC). If it loses the monthly Point of Control (mPOC) at $1.70, there is a higher chance it will revisit the $1.20 to $1 (breakout area)
by Tealstreet
10/7 Can BTC hold bullish trend or was it a fake break out?Overview : The AMEX:SPY posted a decisive red candle today, with a strong bearish body. It’s rare to see appreciating equities while global liquidity has been declining for 21 consecutive days. The index is now trading at the lower end of the range established after the rate cut. The main sectors pulling it down include big tech (with the exception of beloved NVDA, which rose 2.24%), as well as utilities, insurance, and finance. On the other hand, oil, gas, and healthcare showed gains. Since Friday, the number of traders expecting no rate cut in November has quadrupled from 2.6% to 13.7%. This reflects market uncertainty: while no rate cut means continued tight credit conditions and less liquidity, it also signals the Fed’s confidence in a strong job market and rising salaries. The question remains, which factor will weigh heavier on speculative assets like crypto? Less liquidity suggests a bearish outlook, but a stronger job market could be bullish. This week could be pivotal for crypto. The question is whether BINANCE:BTCUSDT will hold above the 61.5k support level or break down, ending the fifth wave of this year’s crypto bull run. BTC TA : Weekly : After bullish momentum yesterday and earlier today, Bitcoin has since corrected. It’s now sitting at the BB MA and has moved away from the biggest volume node, leaving the point of control (POC). The 61.3k - 62.6k range isn't seeing much volume, and BTC will either hold above this or break through, which would be critical. Daily : Bitcoin retested the MM BA resistance after falling beneath it. Monday ended with a bearish hammer, signaling caution. No major divergences were spotted on key indicators. Last week on Friday we wrote "Daily had a nice pull back after dumping from bull trap. Given the last 16 days of trading, upper resistance is at $63.3 k. It will need a real miracle to brake that level." The promised pull back played out. Price actually rose to 64.4k. But miracle of braking it didn't happen. 4-Hour : No divergences, and the trend seems uncertain. 1-Hour : Over the weekend, Asian bulls pushed BTC upwards, triggering short liquidations that drove prices up to 63.9k. However, the upward movement was halted at the significant weekly resistance of $64 k. A pullback followed. Early Monday, U.S. bulls retested the $64 k level again, pushing prices as high as 64.4k. This retrace fell within the Fibonacci golden pocket, specifically between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels when measured from the high on September 27th. Alts Relative to BTC: NEAR, APT, TAO, FTM, and SUI are outpacing BTC and other altcoins as Monday progressed. ETH and SOL, however, remain closely aligned with BTC’s movements. Bull Case : Since early September, we’ve seen the beginnings of a new bull run, which could be fueled by potential rate cuts and improving macroeconomic conditions. A breakout from the bullish flag consolidation pattern forming on the weekly chart could lead to significant upside. Bear Case: The fifth wave may already be over, and we could be headed downward, marking the end of this year’s bull run. Fear and Greed Index : 41.49, indicating a neutral sentiment. This week holds the key for BTC's next move. Will it hold support or break down? Stay tuned.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
#SUI (SHORT) entry range(2.0844- 2.2500) T.(1.1421) SL(2.3300)I will take this risk to short BINANCE:SUIUSDT from this price (2.0844), please do your own plan.... BINANCE:SUIUSDT entry range (2.0844- 2.2500)) Target1 (1.4590) - Target2 (1.1421) SL (2.3300) *** I will take this risk , please do your own plans *** *** No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey *** **** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH # AST #PORTAL #CYBER #CLV #RIF ENJ #ZIL #APT #MAV #ZRX ****
Short
by Crypto_alphabit
1
10/4 Nice rebound. Can we crash now? Overview: The AMEX:SPY opened Friday significantly higher than Thursday’s close, forming a bullish hammer candle and edging closer to its all-time high. This week closed higher than the previous week, though the previous week did see higher prices. The NASDAQ:QQQ mirrored the S&P’s action, showing similar price movement. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into its ETH ETF, while other major players remain on the sidelines. One critical trend to monitor: Bitcoin has historically struggled to hit new all-time highs or maintain upward momentum when the Global Liquidity Index is in decline. Unfortunately, the index has been falling for the past 19 days. You can learn more about Global Liquidity Index and add it to your chart: The CME Fed Watch Tool has now removed the possibility of a half-percentage point rate cut in November, replacing it with a chance of no rate cut at all. Currently, 2.6% of traders believe there will be no rate cut in November, while 97.4% expect a 1 basis point cut. Even with a rate cut, it will take time for liquidity to flow back into markets. By the time that happens, Bitcoin may hit its bottom for this cycle, signaling the start of a new bullish phase. Be sure to have cash ready for that opportunity. BTC Technical Analysis: W: BTC’s price is nearing the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) at $62.6k. If Sunday’s price rises by $456, it would close at or above that level, offering temporary hope to bulls. However, a more critical level to watch is the previous weekly close at $64.1k. D : After a significant pullback from the bull trap, daily resistance is set at $63.3k. Breaking that level will require significant momentum. 4h & 1h: No clear signals on these timeframes. In a limbo. Altcoins Relative to BTC: APT and TAO have remained stable over the last 5 days, showing no significant declines after BTC’s bull trap. Shorting opportunities might arise soon. Bull Case: Looking at the past 28 days, we see a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. As liquidity eventually enters the market, more capital could flow into crypto, pushing prices higher. Bear Case: On a broader scale, since the start of the year, the market is still showing lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish risks are still present. Fear and Greed Index: 40.78 – Back to neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
10/3 Bye Bye cryptoOverview: Unemployment dropped to 4.1%, slightly lower than the expected 4.2%. September’s jobs report revealed a 254k increase in hiring, well above the forecasted 150k. This means there's now a reduced chance of a double basis point rate cut in November, which is bad news for risk-on assets like crypto. The CME tool now shows a 92.5% chance for a single basis point rate cut, up from 47% just a week ago. Next week, CPI and PPI reports will be released, which will be crucial for gauging inflation. Meanwhile, BlackRock continues its dollar-cost averaging into both BTC and ETH ETFs, while others are either selling or staying on the sidelines. Fun fact: at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, an interesting event occurred. Someone placed a market buy order for BTC, causing a 0.38% price spike. The volume for that minute was 196 Bitcoin, worth around $12 million at a price of $61.5k. Since the candle was green, it suggests more than 50% of that volume was buying pressure. Did someone purchase $7 million worth of Bitcoin? While that large order initially triggered a brief buying spree, just an hour later, the price began to dump. This shows either whales aren't fully in control of the market, or $7 million isn't enough to sway it for long. BTC TA: W: BTC remains steady at the same weekly level, with no significant movement. D: Similarly, daily price levels remain stagnant. 4h: MACD and RSI continue to climb from the bottom, indicating potential for further bullish movement. However, the overall market sentiment, driven by geopolitical and economic news, may hamper this upward trajectory. 1h: BTC has seemingly found support between $61.9k and $60.1k. However, the chances of an upward breakout appear slim given the macroeconomic conditions. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Yesterday, we suggested shorting SUI, which proceeded to collapse 13%. Bull Case: BTC bounces off its current support level and recovers to $63k. Bear Case: Economic data may reveal that inflation is here to stay, and the Fed won't cut rates as quickly as the market hoped. Even when the rate cut comes, it could take months for the economy to adjust. Additionally, the Global Liquidity Index continues to decline despite rate cuts from both the U.S. and China. Fear and Greed Index: 36.11 – Fear. When this indicator moves into fear territory, we often recommend buying blue-chip altcoins, even for short-term traders. It's wise to keep a separate long-term investment account. Remember the saying: Be greedy when others are fearful. Prediction: BTC and the broader crypto market may continue to decline.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
Four Horseman of Defi !?Defi is dominated by four sectors. Chains. Staking. Dexs. Lending. Those four sectors cover majority of crypto space today. Together they create a liquid financial market. Tomorrow they may help spawn an emerging sector like ai, gaming, metaverse, nft, depin, etc into a dominate industry. Unfortunately for many those emerging sectors have yet to become dominate day to day within crypto or outside of crypto. For now we have chains, staking, swapping and lending. We have four chains that are widely available on centralised exchanges. Ethereum, Solana, Sui and Avalanche. The four assets listed here cover all four widely available high performing chains in all four high performing sub sectors. BenQI is the high performing lending protocol on AVAX. Uniswap is the high performing dex on Ethereum (and defi space as a whole). Sui is the high performing growth layer 1 chain leading after the big3 (eth, sol and bsc). Jito is the high performing staking protocol on Solana.
Long
by SoftQuant
Sui price skyrocketed 140% in September: is ATH possible?Sui (SUI) Price, a Layer 1 blockchain token, has seen a significant uptick in market valuation recently. Despite broader market downturns, the SUI price has surged over the past week. This increase positions SUI holders advantageously as optimism in the altcoin sector rises, potentially setting the stage for a robust October rally. Following the launch of its mainnet, the Sui Foundation introduced the Sui Bridge. This new feature enhances connectivity between the Ethereum and Sui networks by enabling secure asset transfers. This development is anticipated to draw new users and boost liquidity, further propelling Sui’s growth trajectory. The SUI price has steadily climbed over the past 24 hours, as shown in the chart. At the time of reporting, the SUI price stands at $1.87, marking a 5% increase for the day. The coin has encountered a notable barrier at the $2 level. Market conditions could soon favor an increase towards this mark. A rise to $2.18 would equal its peak from six months ago on March 27, 2024. Such a development could lead to a nearly 15% increase from its current level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a potential shift in momentum. The MACD line converges towards the signal line, suggesting that a bearish crossover might be imminent. This is underscored by the histogram moving into the red zone, a sign that bears may be gaining strength. Sui’s impressive price surge, growing TVL, and increased investor confidence signals strong potential for further gains. However, technical indicators suggest caution, as market conditions could shift. A move past $2 may set the stage for new highs
by paul_endeo