Phemex Analysis #27: SUI _ Will It Continue Soar or Sink?After its initial surge, PHEMEX:SUIUSDT.P has been locked in a battle with resistance. Breaking through one hurdle after another, it has now found itself staring at the formidable wall of its all-time high, $2.18. A recent retracement has brought it back to $1.88, leaving investors pondering its next move.
The Road Ahead: A Tale of Three Scenarios
Breaking Free : The most optimistic scenario would see SUI shatter the $2.18 resistance with a surge of volume. This could propel it to even higher heights, igniting a new wave of bullish sentiment.
A Bearish Turn : However, the market has shown signs of weakness. A second one-day high accompanied by a RSI divergence suggests that a bearish reversal might be brewing. If SUI falls below the $1.60 support level with significant volume, a downward spiral could ensue.
The Waiting Game : A more likely scenario is a period of consolidation. SUI might hold the $1.70 support level while investors patiently await a clear breakout signal. Impatience can be a trader's enemy in such situations.
The Path Forward
As SUI navigates this critical juncture, patience and careful analysis are key. While the potential for further gains is undeniable, the risk of a reversal cannot be ignored. Traders must weigh the potential rewards against the risks and make informed decisions.
Tips:
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
SUI
[SUIUSDT] - Bullish isn't over yet!BINANCE:SUIUSDT Started it's correction after a 350% profit from it's bottom in 24 august.
take care if u are going to open shorts... u must understand that the decline doesn't happen vertically.
it can bounce back from here and test the top again at 2.16 to liquidation all short positions then return to complete its correction
i expect a correction to 1.5$( will happen through 2 weeks) then comes back to 5$
BEST Regards Ceciliones🎯
Sui (SUI): how close is a new ATH?Sui (SUI) price has recently experienced a notable rise in market value, standing out even as the broader cryptocurrency market struggles. Over the past week, SUI has defied the downturn, continuing its upward momentum after being one of the top-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies in September.
The token saw a remarkable 100% increase last month, and the rally carried over into October, with SUI coming close to setting a new all-time high on October 7. In addition, SUI drew more attention after surpassing Solana in daily transaction volume, further solidifying its growing presence in the market.
After a market surge over the past few days, the SUI price has experienced a notable drop, slipping by 5.90% to $1.94 at press time. The digital asset, which recently hit a 24-hour low of $1.94 and a high of $2.13, has seen some fluctuations, reflecting a volatile trading day. The Sui price hit an all-time high of $2.18 on March 27, 2024, marking a 10.5% decrease from its peak.
The Sui price is facing resistance around the $2 mark. However, improving market conditions might support a push towards this level soon. If the coin reaches $2.18, it would mark a significant increase of nearly 10% from its current value.
Such a move could bring the cryptocurrency closer to its all-time high (ATH), potentially sparking renewed investor interest.
The current Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) value is 0.01, indicating a neutral market sentiment. It recently showed a bullish trend before flattening out.
While the Sui price has pulled back slightly from its recent highs, the continued growth in transactions and DeFi activity suggests the potential for further gains. With resistance near $2 and increasing interest from key platforms, Sui remains a token to watch, especially if it makes another push toward its all-time high.
10/8 Market Tensions as S&P500 Wobbles Ahead of CPI, BTC Holds.Overview:
The AMEX:SPY is hovering around its all-time highs, showing limited movement as investors await Thursday’s CPI report. Anticipation is building, but it seems the U.S. market may not make any significant moves until inflation data provides clearer direction.
BTC TA:
W: When examining the volume profile of this year's entire bull phase, the point of control—where the most trading volume occurred—stands at $63 K. This explains why BINANCE:BTCUSDT might consolidate at the current price range for longer than expected. Despite a second false breakout attempt, Bitcoin remains trapped between the crucial monthly support level of $61.4K and resistance at $64 K. On one hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, while on the other, China's government has announced a $28 billion investment package. The SSE Composite Index surged 30%, though it recently corrected by 11% over the last two days. Notably, some of the significant green candles can be attributed to Asian market open times.
D: The daily chart paints a clear picture of the price struggling to escape bearish pressure. It’s hovering just below the Bollinger Bands’ moving average. Monday presented a bearish hammer, and Tuesday ended with an indecisive doji.
4h: No divergences are evident on the MACD or CVD. The RSI sits around 45, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure.
1h: Price is oscillating around the $62.2K point of control level without any strong signals for bullish or bearish momentum.
Alts relative to BTC: Major altcoins are moving in line with Bitcoin, with little divergence. However, SUI and TAO, after their impressive runs to all-time highs, have begun to correct.
Bull case: If Trump is re-elected, accompanied by more interest rate cuts, this could boost the bullish narrative. The bull flag on the weekly chart is becoming more apparent and, if it breaks out, could signal a further upward trend. The formation of a reverse head and shoulders at the beginning of July, August, and September also supports a bullish outlook.
Bear case: However, bears point out that we’re still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The double fake bull breakouts in recent upticks further signal caution. The market lacks new narratives, and regulatory crackdowns continue. Major CEXs now require strict KYC compliance, cutting off trading access for users in China, the UK, the U.S., and other key markets. While VPNs offer a workaround, the risks of locked accounts on exchanges registered in jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands add significant risk for traders.
Fear and Greed Index: 41.71 - Neutral.
Forming a sales position in SUIAs the daily channel listed on the channel, this queen, which has a powerful ascending rally, needs to be modified to continue the course of movement, so as in one hour and 5 minutes change The trend has taken place in this queen and with a liquidity that has not been formed for 5 minutes, it can regain the price and throw it to lower levels.
SUI near ATHSUI nearly made it to ATH. I know it looks pretty scary to enter long that high, and that makes sense. But I want you to check out SUIBTC chart - imagine that price break above that level - in this case guaranteed target will be around 0.00009 and that makes another 150% from breakout (or ~180% from cmp) 👀
Watch the dips under 1.92 and down to 1.85 - they can be an opportunity to catch that breakout.
SUI - Possible Pullback to $1.20 to $1SUI Network skyrocketed and has recently been the most hyped coin.
In our last update, we anticipated a breakout when it was trading around $1
SUI has just undergone 83 million USD worth of token unlocks.
Technical Outlook:
With CRYPTOCAP:BTC dominance rising as Bitcoin corrects, we expect a broader pullback.
On the weekly timeframe, price has hit a significant resistance level.
4-hour timeframe: There was a strong rejection, and it is now trading around the daily Point of Control (dPOC). If it loses the monthly Point of Control (mPOC) at $1.70, there is a higher chance it will revisit the $1.20 to $1 (breakout area)
10/7 Can BTC hold bullish trend or was it a fake break out?Overview :
The AMEX:SPY posted a decisive red candle today, with a strong bearish body. It’s rare to see appreciating equities while global liquidity has been declining for 21 consecutive days. The index is now trading at the lower end of the range established after the rate cut. The main sectors pulling it down include big tech (with the exception of beloved NVDA, which rose 2.24%), as well as utilities, insurance, and finance. On the other hand, oil, gas, and healthcare showed gains.
Since Friday, the number of traders expecting no rate cut in November has quadrupled from 2.6% to 13.7%. This reflects market uncertainty: while no rate cut means continued tight credit conditions and less liquidity, it also signals the Fed’s confidence in a strong job market and rising salaries. The question remains, which factor will weigh heavier on speculative assets like crypto? Less liquidity suggests a bearish outlook, but a stronger job market could be bullish.
This week could be pivotal for crypto. The question is whether BINANCE:BTCUSDT will hold above the 61.5k support level or break down, ending the fifth wave of this year’s crypto bull run.
BTC TA :
Weekly : After bullish momentum yesterday and earlier today, Bitcoin has since corrected. It’s now sitting at the BB MA and has moved away from the biggest volume node, leaving the point of control (POC). The 61.3k - 62.6k range isn't seeing much volume, and BTC will either hold above this or break through, which would be critical.
Daily : Bitcoin retested the MM BA resistance after falling beneath it. Monday ended with a bearish hammer, signaling caution. No major divergences were spotted on key indicators. Last week on Friday we wrote "Daily had a nice pull back after dumping from bull trap. Given the last 16 days of trading, upper resistance is at $63.3 k. It will need a real miracle to brake that level." The promised pull back played out. Price actually rose to 64.4k. But miracle of braking it didn't happen.
4-Hour : No divergences, and the trend seems uncertain.
1-Hour : Over the weekend, Asian bulls pushed BTC upwards, triggering short liquidations that drove prices up to 63.9k. However, the upward movement was halted at the significant weekly resistance of $64 k. A pullback followed. Early Monday, U.S. bulls retested the $64 k level again, pushing prices as high as 64.4k. This retrace fell within the Fibonacci golden pocket, specifically between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels when measured from the high on September 27th.
Alts Relative to BTC: NEAR, APT, TAO, FTM, and SUI are outpacing BTC and other altcoins as Monday progressed. ETH and SOL, however, remain closely aligned with BTC’s movements.
Bull Case : Since early September, we’ve seen the beginnings of a new bull run, which could be fueled by potential rate cuts and improving macroeconomic conditions. A breakout from the bullish flag consolidation pattern forming on the weekly chart could lead to significant upside.
Bear Case: The fifth wave may already be over, and we could be headed downward, marking the end of this year’s bull run.
Fear and Greed Index : 41.49, indicating a neutral sentiment.
This week holds the key for BTC's next move. Will it hold support or break down? Stay tuned.
#SUI (SHORT) entry range(2.0844- 2.2500) T.(1.1421) SL(2.3300)I will take this risk to short BINANCE:SUIUSDT from this price (2.0844), please do your own plan....
BINANCE:SUIUSDT
entry range (2.0844- 2.2500))
Target1 (1.4590) - Target2 (1.1421)
SL (2.3300)
*** I will take this risk , please do your own plans ***
*** No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey ***
**** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH # AST #PORTAL #CYBER #CLV #RIF ENJ #ZIL #APT #MAV #ZRX ****
#SUI/USDT#SUI
The price is moving in an ascending channel on the 1-hour frame upwards and is expected to continue.
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average again.
We have an upward trend on the RSI indicator that supports the rise by breaking it upwards.
We have a support area at the lower limit of the channel at a price of 1.70.
Entry price 1.75.
First target 1.87.
Second target 1.94.
Third target 2.00.
SUI done? or...If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Finally have a bit of a break of the HL.
IF it is ready for a Wave 4.
I would really like to see a move down to 1.45 and react before a move back to 2$, to load a long.
Still time to put in a wave B so may not be ready yet.
Trade Safe,
Trade Clarity.
10/4 Nice rebound. Can we crash now? Overview:
The AMEX:SPY opened Friday significantly higher than Thursday’s close, forming a bullish hammer candle and edging closer to its all-time high. This week closed higher than the previous week, though the previous week did see higher prices.
The NASDAQ:QQQ mirrored the S&P’s action, showing similar price movement. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into its ETH ETF, while other major players remain on the sidelines.
One critical trend to monitor: Bitcoin has historically struggled to hit new all-time highs or maintain upward momentum when the Global Liquidity Index is in decline. Unfortunately, the index has been falling for the past 19 days.
You can learn more about Global Liquidity Index and add it to your chart:
The CME Fed Watch Tool has now removed the possibility of a half-percentage point rate cut in November, replacing it with a chance of no rate cut at all. Currently, 2.6% of traders believe there will be no rate cut in November, while 97.4% expect a 1 basis point cut. Even with a rate cut, it will take time for liquidity to flow back into markets. By the time that happens, Bitcoin may hit its bottom for this cycle, signaling the start of a new bullish phase. Be sure to have cash ready for that opportunity.
BTC Technical Analysis:
W: BTC’s price is nearing the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) at $62.6k. If Sunday’s price rises by $456, it would close at or above that level, offering temporary hope to bulls. However, a more critical level to watch is the previous weekly close at $64.1k.
D : After a significant pullback from the bull trap, daily resistance is set at $63.3k. Breaking that level will require significant momentum.
4h & 1h: No clear signals on these timeframes. In a limbo.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
APT and TAO have remained stable over the last 5 days, showing no significant declines after BTC’s bull trap. Shorting opportunities might arise soon.
Bull Case: Looking at the past 28 days, we see a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. As liquidity eventually enters the market, more capital could flow into crypto, pushing prices higher.
Bear Case: On a broader scale, since the start of the year, the market is still showing lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish risks are still present.
Fear and Greed Index: 40.78 – Back to neutral.
10/3 Bye Bye cryptoOverview:
Unemployment dropped to 4.1%, slightly lower than the expected 4.2%. September’s jobs report revealed a 254k increase in hiring, well above the forecasted 150k. This means there's now a reduced chance of a double basis point rate cut in November, which is bad news for risk-on assets like crypto. The CME tool now shows a 92.5% chance for a single basis point rate cut, up from 47% just a week ago.
Next week, CPI and PPI reports will be released, which will be crucial for gauging inflation. Meanwhile, BlackRock continues its dollar-cost averaging into both BTC and ETH ETFs, while others are either selling or staying on the sidelines.
Fun fact: at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, an interesting event occurred. Someone placed a market buy order for BTC, causing a 0.38% price spike. The volume for that minute was 196 Bitcoin, worth around $12 million at a price of $61.5k. Since the candle was green, it suggests more than 50% of that volume was buying pressure. Did someone purchase $7 million worth of Bitcoin? While that large order initially triggered a brief buying spree, just an hour later, the price began to dump. This shows either whales aren't fully in control of the market, or $7 million isn't enough to sway it for long.
BTC TA:
W: BTC remains steady at the same weekly level, with no significant movement.
D: Similarly, daily price levels remain stagnant.
4h: MACD and RSI continue to climb from the bottom, indicating potential for further bullish movement. However, the overall market sentiment, driven by geopolitical and economic news, may hamper this upward trajectory.
1h: BTC has seemingly found support between $61.9k and $60.1k. However, the chances of an upward breakout appear slim given the macroeconomic conditions.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
Yesterday, we suggested shorting SUI, which proceeded to collapse 13%.
Bull Case: BTC bounces off its current support level and recovers to $63k.
Bear Case: Economic data may reveal that inflation is here to stay, and the Fed won't cut rates as quickly as the market hoped. Even when the rate cut comes, it could take months for the economy to adjust. Additionally, the Global Liquidity Index continues to decline despite rate cuts from both the U.S. and China.
Fear and Greed Index: 36.11 – Fear.
When this indicator moves into fear territory, we often recommend buying blue-chip altcoins, even for short-term traders. It's wise to keep a separate long-term investment account. Remember the saying: Be greedy when others are fearful.
Prediction:
BTC and the broader crypto market may continue to decline.
Four Horseman of Defi !?Defi is dominated by four sectors. Chains. Staking. Dexs. Lending. Those four sectors cover majority of crypto space today. Together they create a liquid financial market. Tomorrow they may help spawn an emerging sector like ai, gaming, metaverse, nft, depin, etc into a dominate industry.
Unfortunately for many those emerging sectors have yet to become dominate day to day within crypto or outside of crypto.
For now we have chains, staking, swapping and lending.
We have four chains that are widely available on centralised exchanges. Ethereum, Solana, Sui and Avalanche.
The four assets listed here cover all four widely available high performing chains in all four high performing sub sectors.
BenQI is the high performing lending protocol on AVAX.
Uniswap is the high performing dex on Ethereum (and defi space as a whole).
Sui is the high performing growth layer 1 chain leading after the big3 (eth, sol and bsc).
Jito is the high performing staking protocol on Solana.
Sui price skyrocketed 140% in September: is ATH possible?Sui (SUI) Price, a Layer 1 blockchain token, has seen a significant uptick in market valuation recently. Despite broader market downturns, the SUI price has surged over the past week. This increase positions SUI holders advantageously as optimism in the altcoin sector rises, potentially setting the stage for a robust October rally.
Following the launch of its mainnet, the Sui Foundation introduced the Sui Bridge. This new feature enhances connectivity between the Ethereum and Sui networks by enabling secure asset transfers. This development is anticipated to draw new users and boost liquidity, further propelling Sui’s growth trajectory.
The SUI price has steadily climbed over the past 24 hours, as shown in the chart. At the time of reporting, the SUI price stands at $1.87, marking a 5% increase for the day.
The coin has encountered a notable barrier at the $2 level. Market conditions could soon favor an increase towards this mark. A rise to $2.18 would equal its peak from six months ago on March 27, 2024. Such a development could lead to a nearly 15% increase from its current level.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a potential shift in momentum. The MACD line converges towards the signal line, suggesting that a bearish crossover might be imminent. This is underscored by the histogram moving into the red zone, a sign that bears may be gaining strength.
Sui’s impressive price surge, growing TVL, and increased investor confidence signals strong potential for further gains. However, technical indicators suggest caution, as market conditions could shift. A move past $2 may set the stage for new highs
10/2 Friday will decide your crypto fate.Overview:
The AMEX:SPY opened lower than yesterday's close, continuing its bearish trend, but managed to recover and end the day in the green. However, the MACD on both the daily and 4-hour charts shows a bearish divergence, indicating potential weakness ahead. Tesla took a significant hit, dropping by 3.5% and ranking among the day's biggest losers.
NASDAQ:QQQ also saw a decline, though less severe, as it isn’t facing the same pressure from all-time highs as other sectors. Tomorrow, the FED will release the latest initial jobless claims data. If claims come in below the expected 220,000, this could indicate an improving labor market, which would make it harder for the FED to aggressively cut interest rates. So, if you want that rate cut, maybe submit that jobless claim!
BlackRock ended its 7-day Bitcoin ETF buying streak, selling $13.7 million worth of Bitcoin today. This is roughly half of the largest amount they have sold in one day, which was $38.9 million.
BTC TA:
W: The situation remains unchanged from yesterday. BINANCE:BTCUSD is still sitting below critical levels that could have shifted the trend to bullish. Geopolitical tensions and a strengthening U.S. job market are likely to keep the weekly candle in the red.
D: Wednesday's candle formed a red doji, with both the open and close below the crucial $61.4k weekly level. Early Thursday price action briefly touched this level before pulling back, confirming it as a resistance. The MACD and RSI are still working through the aftermath of the divergence seen during the bull trap, showing no signs of trend reversal. A short-term pullback to the $62.5k-$63k level is possible but more evident on lower timeframes. Neutral.
4h: RSI is in the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram shows the downtrend is losing momentum. It took significantly less volume to push the price lower to $60k, suggesting a potential short-term bullish move toward the BB MA at $62.5k.
1h: London traders triggered a mass sell-off in the last two hours, pushing BTC down 1.46% and rebounding from the $61.4k resistance level. Have you copied these key levels to your chart? The next question: Will $60k hold, or will it break in the next few minutes?
Alts Relative to BTC:
Major altcoins like SOL, NEAR, and ETH have all broken their lows and are heading toward their early September levels. TAO and FTM, which performed well last week, are not immune, declining by 7%. Only SUI is holding steady for now, but for how long?
Bull Case:
If Jerome Powell reports on Friday that inflation has cooled, it would confirm a slowing economy and pave the way for further interest rate cuts. This could spark the 6th bull wave, sending crypto prices soaring once again.
Bear Case:
This week could continue to see prices fall further, potentially marking the end of the 2024 crypto bull run.
Fear and Greed Index:
The index stands at 36.22, well into the Fear territory. Historically, when the index dips below 40, it's a signal to start buying some blue-chip altcoins, even if you're a day or swing trader. We recommend having a separate account for long-term investments. Remember: Be greedy when others are fearful.
Prediction:
If we can dodge the bullet of World War III and the market remains unaffected by major macro events, we could see a correction to the $62.5k-$64 k level.
Opportunities:
Short the last standing king of altcoins - SUI.
SUI/USDT UptrendSUI/USDT is currently in an uptrend, supported by the ascending trendline and EMAs.
SUI is currently in a consolidation phase above the EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages), which have been acting as strong support. The MACD is showing signs of consolidation. The MACD lines are getting closer, suggesting a possible bullish crossover. The histogram, with bars close to zero, reinforces that the market is in a moment of indecision. It is important to wait for a clear MACD crossover to confirm a new direction.
Support: 1.8125 / 1.7204
Resistance: 1.9341 / 2.0125
SUI Recovery in Play: Targeting $1.44 After Key BreakoutAfter reaching an all-time high (ATH) above $2 at the end of March, SUI entered a correction that pushed the coin below the key $1 level, reaching a low just under $0.50 on August 5th. However, SUI quickly recovered, and by August 8th, the SUI/USDT pair had broken above the falling resistance line of the channel, hitting a high above $1 on August 12th.
Following this move, the coin consolidated below this critical level, forming a clear higher low around the $0.75 zone. Currently, SUI is trading back above $1, sitting just below an important technical resistance. A breakout above this resistance appears imminent, with the first target for further upside being $1.44, representing a potential 40% rise.
Looking further ahead, if the broader crypto market continues to show optimism toward the end of the year, SUI could potentially retest its previous ATH above $2.