Sunday Prep 8/08 - $MRNA SHORTI’m keeping this one on the list this week but it’s not something I’m in love with as much as I was the last time I had it on this list. The best case scenario for me is that this thing speeds up and actually gets one more push higher to give it a bit more of an extreme look. The other option is for it to make an attempt to take new highs and fail, in essence giving us a lower high and then I may look to anticipate the crack back under 400 with risk over the highs. But in order for me to want to anticipate this I’m going to have to see some real signs of weakness first. Keep in mind, any time you anticipate something the win rate is going to be much lower but in reality it’s worth it sometimes due to the skewed risk reward. If it actually gives us the lower high and confirms it by going back under 393.61, the target is well below down at the 20d. but make sure you understand it as time passes and it takes a while to move down there with 20d will creep higher.
Sunday
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $Z SHORT
Hard to argue the weakness with that big red daily candle after the numbers came out. this name is really just hanging on by a thread. Under 99 and things can get really ugly. so I’ll either be looking for a pot back into 103 to get short, or I will watch for it to crack under 100 and then look to join the trend.
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $SBUX LONGYes, Starbucks made the list again. Womp womp womp. there’s actually two ideas. Here one is a swing trade and there’s also a way I would day-trade this. The swing trade is illustrated by the red and green shaded long scenario that you see on the chart. Make sure you’re comfortable with this being something that could take weeks to months to play out, but I don’t see a problem with this name getting back to its all-time highs and the risk is so tight here it’s impossible for me to pass it up. As for the day trade, I would be willing to buy opening flushes down into the 118 area or if it breaks over 119.50 I would be looking to join the trend.
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $BYSI Setting up perfectly for a SQUEEZE!!This name is set up perfectly for a squeeze. it gapped up big Wednesday morning after reporting positive top-line data in late-stage study of lung cancer combo drug. it inevitably pulled in tons of shorts due to its large gap but the stock held relatively well and even pushed up later in the day. the problem is that shorts see that they will most likely raise through a secondary and they get extremely bearish on the stock which in turn makes them hold and become stubborn. but this company will more than likely price the secondary rather strong and shorts will not get bailed out like they’re hoping they will. Friday the price action was really constructive. this coming week I will definitely be watching for any type of weakness that actually ends up trapping more shorts. I will possibly trade this intraday but the real thing I’m interested in is to watch for when they actually announce the secondary to see if there’s a flush to scoop. But I don’t necessarily want to be holding this thing long into the secondary. I would prefer to be flat at that point and then react.
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $AVIR I don’t usually put stocks that trade less than 2m shares/day on average on my watchlist but this chart is too sexy to pass up. I’ll be looking for a pullback to the annual pivot just below 30 and the monthly pivot at 29.41 as areas of Interest. The only real problem I have with this setup is that it already pushed into the weekly 20sma. Therefore it may find quite a bit of resistance here before being able to get the next leg up. But again I think the daily chart is sexy enough to make an exception and still want this trade. Also, it’s worth noting that the company has a ton of cash and a secondary is not a concern. It’s also a covid play.
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $BTC OutlookAfter the breach of the upper channel resistance, we pulled back to the 20d/monthly pivot/annual pivot and held beautifully. It has since bounced and actually made a new high over the previous week’s. This is all very constructive for the Bitcoin bulls, but they still face the 200d which is standing directly in front of them. It also just happens to be in the same area as the weekly 20sma. This could prove quite an area of resistance. We’ll see if they can get through it this week or if they need to retreat a bit to build up some more steam first.
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $QQQ/$NQNasdaq still looking mighty healthy as well. Pull-backs to the 20d constantly find buyers and we still keep making new highs. I do think that flushes to the 20d continue to hold. It may even hold flushes to the annual pivot right by that psychological 15k level. But if we lose 14849, I can very easily see this tumbling down towards the 50d.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $BX SHORTThis name isn’t there yet, but if it were to continue extending there may eventually be a setup here. Remember, for these setups I need to see things get extreme. This very well may give a reversal from here back towards the 20d, but there's just no way to put a trade on with the kind of conviction that I could if I saw things get silly extreme. So for now just monitoring.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $ARKK SHORTThis name is really struggling to reclaim the 200d and now has the 20d about to cross underneath the 200d. Not to mention that this etf is compiled of a TON of names that individually would fit perfectly on this section of the Sunday Prep. Will be watching this week to see if it stuffs the 200d and then will be looking for lower highs to join trend. If it just flushes off the open Monday and loses the 50d, I may look to get involved lower. If it loses lasts week’s lows it’s in trouble.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $PYPL LONGUmm, hello you fine fine lady. So far pulled right back into levels mentioned last week in the Prep. Hoping we can actually get down a little bit closer to 266ish, but if this is all she wants to pullback then I have no problem watching for higher lows intraday and try to join trend.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $XM LONGLove how this name has created a big curling look off the lows and is starting to show signs of strength. Would look for any pullback to that 40 level to show support and get long. If that area doesn’t hold and we somehow make our way down towards the 20d, I would be VERY interested in the name and may even throw some in my longer term account. But remember, for starting new swings would first prefer the broader market to pull back to better levels of support. If the Nasdaq goes and retests that 14000 level, this would be a go-to name for me.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $BTC Trying to break north of her baseWell, she’s trying to break north of her base. Nothing has happened convincingly yet, but that can change at any moment. First level of resistance will be the shove into the underside of that weekly 20sma. That very well could smack it right back down into the sideways channel. If instead holds the old resistance as support, it may be gearing up for a bigger move higher.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $SPY/$ES Things can't go straight up foreverEverything still looking healthy heading into August. Support for me will be the 20d/monthly pivot 4350ish area, followed by the 50d/annual pivot 4275ish area. 4500 is the first area I see as possible resistance.
Let the monthly chart keep you objective about where we are in the bigger picture. Things can’t go straight up forever. Don’t think for a second that the S&P can somehow skirt the rules of physics. As long as the fed keeps printing money the music will keep playing. But once the music stops, we need to know how to spot the trouble. That is why I use higher timeframes to see when things start to change. You can see I have set an alert for the break of July’s lows. That doesn’t mean things are broken, but it’s definitely something to take note of if/when that happens. The other thing I watch for is lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart.
Sunday Prep 8/01 - $NQ/$QQQ Like to see a retest of $14000Still would like to see a retest of that 14000 level.
Weekly chart shows just how beautiful that level would actually be. If we get that pullback, I would be very interested in looking for strong tech stocks holding nice levels of support for possible longs. Till then I won’t be thinking too much about starting any new long swings. But I will still take day trades on both the long and the short side. Monthly pivot up around 15300 is the first area of resistance.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $AAPL LONGHere’s one of the behemoths. And trading at ATHs. Can they surprise the street enough to continue higher? Hard to say. But I can definitely say that if they disappoint and get smoked, we may get that pullback in the market that we were discussing earlier. This doesn’t make me bearish, not at all. In fact, I actually would love a pullback to some key levels on this name to reset the market and also give some possibly great entries on such a great stock. Would want to see the 50d before considering starting in long, and possibly even the 200d.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $UPS Over $215 she could go straight to ATHNice looking weekly chart here. Feel like over 215 and she goes straight up to ATHs and possibly next leg up. Only concern I have is that it really didn’t spend a lot of time building this new base. If they miss on numbers, I think it can flush down to the 200 level which should probably be a good level for scoops. I don’t think a pullback to that area hurts this stock at all. Think it would be just what the doctor ordered so that the infant base can spend some more time maturing into a teenager before eventually flying the coop. You also have a quarterly pivot and a monthly pivot at 198.8 and 196.78 respectively.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $TSLA Long & ShortRemember, the swing idea from a few months ago is still valid, so if you’re idea is to play the longer term long on the name, you can still view any pullbacks towards that 580-600 level as good entries with risk under those March lows. Over 700 and this thing looks like it can get frisky. I really don’t like the short idea on the name unless we were to convincingly break under those March lows and then I might consider pops back into levels as possible short opps. Only other way to short the name is on EXTREME extensions and those are not trades I would overstay.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $SBUX Move seems overdoneThis thing has REALLY ran since we first pointed it out for the possible long setup. But it’s now getting to the point where the move seems overdone. As always, my opinion doesn’t mean SHIT! But I WILL be prepared to fade this if it starts to have some lower highs set in and gives me somewhere to have defined risk. Best case scenario is another day up extension to get it that even more extreme look. 130s would be AWESOME! But I’ll take what the market gives me.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $TTWO Short & Long
2 ways I see to play this ticker (yes, that’s slightly punny). 1. Short a pop back into the underside of the quarterly pivot/50d/monthly pivot area if it can shove up there quickly. 2. Wait for a break below 166.61 and then look to join trend.
If we lose that 161.33 low, I really feel like this has the ability to come all the way down to retest that 140 breakout level from way back. Make sure you understand when I discuss these bigger moves, I’m not referring to near-term, but more likely to take a month or 2 to play out.