The Invesco Solar Etf TAN based on the Global Solar Energy IndexThe Invesco Solar ETF is based on the MAC Global Solar Energy Index (Index). The Index is comprised of companies in the solar energy industry.
Wall Street investors have only short-sold the future of the planet! They have shorted all the players that could be a solution to climate change (personal opinion).
With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, I expect that new financial promises will be put forward, and this ETF will regain strength.
TAN etf, ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT $1.32B
ICLN etf, ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT$2.54B
TAN: Enphase, First Solar, SolarEdge, Sunrun, GCL Tech, Xinyi, Hannon Armstrong, Array, ...
ICLN: First Solar, Vestas, Enphase, China Yangtze, Orste, EDP Portugal, SolarEdge, Suzlon, ...
Sunrun
The downfall of Sunrun : What next !
Ladies and gentlemen, in today's financial analysis, we focus on Sunrun, examining recent price movements and conducting a comprhensive outlook.
First, we notice something significant: the stock has dropped by 16% from its previous trading zone. This is noteworthy, especially if the stock shows signs of going up again.
Now, let's discuss what happened at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, talked about raising interest rates, which is different from what other officials said. For example, Patrick Harker from the Philadelphia Fed thought we should keep interest rates as they are. Austan Goolsbee, the Chicago Fed President, was also cautious. He mentioned challenges like high inflation, problems in the supply chain, and the possibility of a big strike in the auto industry. Despite these challenges, he remained hopeful that we can control inflation without causing a recession. He also stressed the importance of using data to make decisions, especially the real interest rate. The stock market liked what he said, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust went up by 0.8%.
Now, let's look ahead. I believe things might change for $NASDAQ:RUN. This belief comes from seeing other companies in the alternative power generation sector, like NYSE:NEP , NYSE:NOVA , and NASDAQ:RNW , starting to do better based on their recent performance. We've also heard that inflation might not keep going up, which is good news for RUN. In this situation, my plan is to keep a close eye on the market and stay updated on the latest news. I'll make sure to update this report with any new information.
RUN has HUGE options activity, mostly short term callsSaw a notification yesterday on decent #option call buying & decided to look into NASDAQ:RUN , again, it's been a while.
Options are going off like crazy!!! Today too!
IMO risk reward is very good here. Long term support & the intraday charts look like they want to bottom.
#solarenergy
Hold Your Sunrun Stock
In light of the recent sub-sequential decline in Sunrun's price action, I am compelled to present this report to provide clarity on the matter. The price movements have exhibited a significant trend of exponential lower highs and lower lows, nearly approaching levels seen over the past 52 weeks.
Allow me to share my insights. For those wise investors who have held positions in Sunrun for an extended period, such as myself, it's evident that this isn't the first time we've witnessed a price decline of this magnitude. Sunrun is renowned for its status as a high-speculative stock, frequently subject to significant market fluctuations as large institutions reposition their capital. It's 210 M circulating shares floats is a perfect reason of this massive % change in the price. These pronounced market movements are often welcomed by short-term and long-term investors alike. NASDAQ:RUN
However, it is noteworthy that the recent selling activity has been quite pronounced. Therefore, this report strongly recommends to those who are perusing its contents to resist the urge to sell their shares at this juncture. Sunrun has demonstrated consistent growth in the last two quarters, signaling the potential arrival of new buyers in the near future.
It's crucial to bear in mind the timeless adage that when the crowd is selling, it's an opportune moment to buy, and conversely, when the crowd is buying, it's prudent to consider selling. This sage approach remains a valuable cornerstone in navigating the intricate terrain of the financial markets.
Potential upward movement on price of RUN
Having thoroughly analyzed the 1D price action of RUN, I've identified a potential support zone based on Fibonacci levels. As the market opens, we'll be closely observing whether this projection holds true. I'll be consistently updating the status of this potential support. Remember, the strength of this analysis is further accentuated by the higher time frame, boosting the probability and bolstering my confidence in this assessment. Stay tuned for more updates!
RUN Sunrun Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUN Sunrun prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 17.50usd strike price In the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.51.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Excellent buying opportunity for RUN
Following a notably strong bearish pressure in the price action of RUN this week, an attractive entry point for investors has emerged in the current market scenario. The confluence of favorable indicators, such as the MACD and RSI, further bolsters the case for entering at this price level. Moreover, our strategic implementation of the Fibonacci tool aligns perfectly, suggesting that the range between $18.32 and $17.69 represents an optimal entry zone, in my expert opinion.
Significantly, the Fibonacci level we are considering (specifically the 78.6% level) coincides with a prior resistance area and also aligns with a 90-day SMA, significantly reinforcing the robustness of this level as a potential support region. As a result, trades executed from this carefully identified zone hold high potential for success, making it a compelling opportunity for prudent investors seeking optimal entry points.
Disclaimer: It is essential to recognize that the "ideas" presented in this report solely reflect my personal opinion and understanding of the market. These insights should not be interpreted as financial advice, and individuals are urged to conduct thorough research and seek professional guidance before making any investment decisions. Furthermore, please be aware that this report is intended for short-term analysis purposes only and may not be applicable for long-term investment strategies.
SunRun to $30+
The TA is simple.
RUN has fallen below it's trend line and I believe this is unjustified in light of the companies fundamentals.
Solar and energy are hot markets as public pressure weighs on fossil fuel companies.
SunRun has solid earnings through a very bearish 2022,
and despite being not far off from First Solar in revenue, RUN hasn't received anywhere close to the same love from the bulls.
This is a high conviction trade for me
Target HKEX:30 +
Has FUD ended?Sunrun has been sold heavily after the news about SVB. I think FUD affected SUNRUN heavily. The chart is showing that we are at the support. Summer is near as well. We may see a recovery from here. Targets would be 24 and 28. Then breaking the wedge would be hudge!
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
RUN away as fast as you canSometimes you get a trade idea that gives you both fundamentals and technicals coming together. I think this is one of those.
RUN Technical Thesis:
With the primary thesis on this trade being the fundamental story, it's nice to have some technical confluence here.
✅ Bare minimum I see this coming to a 61.8% fib retracement giving you PT 1.
✅ Head and shoulders pattern giving you a measured move for PT 2.
✅ Price target 3 will be your 2017 lows.
RUN Fundamental Thesis:
Sunrun has the largest market share in the Residential solar sector. 1/3 of all residential solar is in California and in April 2023 they are implementing NEM 3.0. What is NEM? NEM (Net Energy Metering) is basically the incentives that the state gives when you generate excess power. Under NEM 3.0 the savings will be more than cut in half - making it much less enticing to install solar. On a cash install your $18 power bill goes to a $96 power bill.
So why Sunrun? They're the leader in solar residential, right? They've gotta be killing it! They have massive revenue growth and look to be net income positive, right? Yeah, but their COGS are growing faster than their revenue growth.
Enter their cash flow statement. This is what made me pick RUN for the short. One big thing stuck out to me in their cash flow statement. The cash from investing activities section is where you would put acquisitions, general capex, etc. Within that subsection you have Purchase/sale of business, net. You want to see a growing company making small acquisitions, but Sunrun has a large and growing sale of business/fixed assets.
I brought this to my friend who is far more versed in financial statements than I am. His response was, "it’s bs for that company they are selling assets to try and stay alive."
Also, their balance sheet. 1B in cash on hand vs almost 7B in debt. How do they pay that off if they can't break even and make money? They raise capital by issuing shares, further diluting your share of the company and lowering the stock price. like they've been doing since 2015. From 101M share float to now 213M share float - meaning if you had owned this company in 2015, the percentage of the company you now own is less than half of what it was.
The play: shorting shares of RUN.
✅Take Profit 1: $14.06
✅Take Profit 2: $8.81
✅Take profit 3: $4.81
🛑Stop Loss: $34.64
SUNRUN is my next 10x opportunitySunrun is a provider of photovoltaic systems and battery energy storage products, primarily for residential customers as per the official description about the company.
Solar business is a growing area and the company's financials are also improving in line with this growth trend.
The current market cap is around 5-6 billion USD and I think there will be more upside based on the positive market prospects and I am thinking a c.10x to a market cap of minimum 50 billion USD in the next years.
So, I am investing in this one for the long run.
Please comment if you have more insight about the company.
IMPORTANT: This is not a financial advice.
$SUN looks ugly. Move to $9.22 incoming?Sunrun looks to be retesting/rejecting resistance here which would setup a large move lower.
I think we're about to see a move lower down to $9.22. Invalidation of this move would be a break and hold above resistance line and then channel. Even if there's a short term move higher above resistance, price would need to break above the channel to turn bullish.
I'd be careful if long.
8/3/22 RUNSunrun Inc. ( NASDAQ:RUN )
Sector: Utilities (Alternative Power Generation)
Market Capitalization: $6.459B
Current Price: $30.74
Breakout Price: $34.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $28.80-$19.50
Price Target: $36.00-$37.30 (1st), $48.70-$49.60 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-22d, 84-88d
Contract of Interest: $RUN 8/19/22 35c, $RUN 10/21/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.93/contract, $3.05/contract
SunRun (NASDAQ: $RUN) Looking Extra Luminous Today ☀️Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Sun Running Down a Hill? Sunrun - Intraday - We look to Sell at 29.04 (stop at 30.03)
Previous support level of 30.00 broken. We look for losses to be extended today. Closed below the 20-day EMA. The primary trend remains bearish. We look to set shorts in the early trade.
Our profit targets will be 26.22 and 23.50
Resistance: 30.00 / 32.00 / 35.00
Support: 25.00 / 23.00 / 20.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Sun Run break outI've been waiting on this for the past 2 weeks now.
SunRun received a target of $95 a couple months back and has been accumulating nicely under the TL going into this fall.
With government incentives being pushed for solar this along with FSLR, SPWR and a few others are beginning to turn.
First target $60. SL below $40