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Supercycle

Grand Silver SupercycleI present the Grand Silver Supercycle. Silver has followed Elliott Wave Theory nicely through the years. The price hit a century low during The Great Depression, beginning what I believe to be the first wave of a supercycle. There is a clear five wave pattern up from this low, peaking in 1980. This is supercycle wave 1. Then, we see a five wave corrective pattern down, bottoming out in the early 90s. Alternatively, a three wave ABC pattern could be drawn. This is where supercycle wave 3 begins. Wave 3 is typically much more prominent than wave 1 in Elliott Wave Theory. For this reason, it makes sense that the next five wave pattern ending in 2011 is only the first subwave of supercycle wave 3. The second subwave corrected to the 2020 low, and we are currently on the third subwave. Within this subwave, we could either be starting a third wave (as shown in the chart) or still be on the corrective second wave. I believe the former is much more likely due to fundamentals. Price targets within the current subwave were estimated as follows: wave 3 length = 1.618 X wave 1 wave 3 target = $48 wave 4 length = 38.2% retracement of wave 3 wave 5 length = 1.618 X (wave 3 end - wave 1 start) I'm more confident on wave 3 ending near $48 than I am of wave 5 ending near $95. There is strong resistance at $50, which coincides with the Elliott target zone. Wave 5 length can vary significantly. For silver at least, fifth waves have traditionally been long ones. Fundamentals Elliott Wave Theory is only a tool. It needs to be backed up by fundamentals when forecasting on long time frames. Silver is undervalued due to many years of supply outstripping demand, creating cheap prices. That is in the early stages of changing as now demand outpaces supply. Global silver demand was expected to hit an all time high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022 (www.silverinstitute.org). This is largely due to increases in demand in both industry (Green Revolution) and personal investment (stackers hedging against inflation). Silver reserves currently stand at 530,000 metric tons (www.statista.com). The current demand is 38,000 metric tons per year. A simple calculation shows existing reserves could be depleted in 14 years. However, this calculation doesn't take into account new discoveries and recycling, which have so far kept pace with demand. Estimates of time to depletion of reserves vary wildly from a couple decades to a few centuries. At the moment, the prime driver of price (in addition to inflation) will be the deficit, not depletion of reserves. Inflation is a totally different animal that is much harder to forecast long term due to its close relationship to government and Federal Reserve policy. It is more likely that when presented the choice, our leaders choose high inflation over debt default and depression. How this all is going to play out is anyone's guess. It seems for now our leaders are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as possible. If hyperinflation hits, the silver price will reach extraordinary heights.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Cryptogold14
Gold in a supercycleCould we be mid-way through a super-cycle in gold? Could we? Judging by the news we are seeing a slow decline in the PetroDollar, which is a fiat currency built on trust and the number of nuclear weapons. This military power is denominated in Dollars, which used to be tracked in gold. Regardless of what the Crypto fanboys call out, there is only one money, and that is Gold, everything else is currency. Are we about to see a massive surge in Gold as currency all over the world derates to make up for all the surge in prices and workers wanting take home more money? NOTE: This is a 12months line chart, it could take 5-10 years before the surge represents itself....
TVC:GOLDLong
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
Is silver about to break out? Commodities by themselves are not deflationary! They are dug out of the earth, and that both needs technology and people! The demand for gold and silver is higher, it becomes even higher when there is an industrial application to it. Along with inflation, it cost more and more to refine and dig out Silver/Gold! it cost more for machinery and people. Is Silver about to break out, this will be the 3rd time it will hit resistance, and this breaks then all the algo's will follow and drive it higher and higher. Its been a very long time since we had a commodity super cycle.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
DBA - Invesco Agriculture Fund Commodities are currently repricing lower due to the looming global slowdown. Meaning, there is more potential downside for commodities However, There are more significant tailwinds that will push commodity prices higher in the longer term. DBA ETF broke out of yearly downtrend in 2020 indicating that higher food prices are in the global outlook for the upcoming years. A pullback is probably overdue but after prices stabilize, we can see the DBA ETF push significantly higher. The first stop is fair value (red line).
AMEX:DBALong
by brandonmattis
IS THE BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE STILL HAPPENING?Dear Traders and Hopeaholics alike, Those that have followed me for a while, will know BEAR TEARS are one of my favourite things, unfortunately... after 9 consecutive red candles, it has been a while since we have truly experienced them. I'd like to welcome you to the HOTEL CALIFORNIA, which is such a lovely place where you can check out, but never leave... so that's the reason you're still here! I am the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short), and as I escape the Bitcoin bulls slaughterhouse and as the bears laugh... I'd like to remind you, that so far my long-term charts are all VERY ACCURATE... While many of you are waiting to BUY the 20K region, I am going to tell you why, you might just want to start buying now. The PITCHFORK CHART ABOVE and the same chart on a MONTHLY TIMEFRAME shows only a wick breaking out The GLOBAL MARKETS are facing the effects of quantitative tightening with the (USA) FED decreasing the liquidity within the economy, reducing financial assets on its balance sheet by selling them into financial markets or writing them off. On the chart above I show how after each BITCOIN HALVING, within 18months we had reached a new high, with this came an increase in inflation and quantitative easing turned to quantitative tightening, which at each point has seen a new low or bottom. THE PATTERN TO DATE After each HALVING there has been a strong BULL MARKET providing a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH. After each BULL MARKET - QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING has been instigated by the USA FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, with world markets following. Once the BOTTOM has been achieved, there is approximately 1 year to the next BITCOIN HALVING then the BULL MARKET continues for approximately 18months to a new ALL-TIME HIGH, before the cycle commences again. Chart Above correctly spaced - ******************************************************************************************************************************************** THE TECHNICAL STUFF Taking current ATH as a corrective ELLIOTT WAVE RUNNING FLAT - we have a complete ABC corrective structure and C WAVE COMPLETED. (in the pattern shown above) - With the 4th wave potentially completed. GRAND SUPER CYCLE IN ELLIOTT WAVE. In ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - we are currently in GREATER WAVE 4. (Sub waves may have one last wave to complete but in this pattern would hold this low) Wave 4: In Elliott Wave Theory, Guidelines • A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC • Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves • Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal • Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three • Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates substantially beyond the starting level of wave A as in an expanded flat • Wave C fails to travel the full distance, falling short of the level where wave A ended • Wave C needs to have momentum divergence Fibonacci Ratio Relationship • Wave B = 123.6% of wave A • Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB Wave 4 - may be complete, or could extend into a complex correction taking the pattern sideways for the remainder of the time needed before the cycle commences again. ALTERNATE WAVE 4 PATTERN FOR THOSE WAITING ON THE 20K REGION - THIS ONE IS FOR YOU... ******************************************************************************************************************************************** To recap how a SUPERCYCLE IS POSSIBLE... BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE EXPLAINED For those that are new to my charts, here is the explanation of why I think this is valid and continues to be so. ******************************************************************************************************************************************** One day... a long long time ago in a faraway land (Australia) there was a man who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto... now he invented Bitcoin, and gave it a limited supply, of 21million coins, to date about 18.5million have been mined... It is estimated one-third of those mined coins are forever out of circulation, being forgotten about, lost wallets or passwords... but cannot be accessed ever again... There is also increased mining difficulty. This process has adapted overtime... On launch, miners received 50 BTC in 2012 it halved to 25 BTC then in 2016 again halving to 12.5 BTC and last year on 11th May 2020 we are now down to a mere 6.25BTC (as of today's writing this that is approximately $300,000.00 USD) Bitcoin's inflation rate is lowered effectively at the 4year mark, and the algorithmic math difficulty increased, making it harder for the computers to "guess" or "crack" 64-digit hexadecimal numbers (a "hash") this can take trillions of attempts. With this, mining difficulty increased, and it is estimated the last BITCOIN may not be mined until 2140 long after we have all left this Earth or if the network no longer continues to exist. Post 21 million coins mined - Bitcoin is designed to function as a closed market/economy, with transaction fees similar to taxes. At some stage for long-term survival, these fees will need to be capped or managed. Why BITCOIN is not a PONZI is the strong demand within the market currently, and with demand we achieve growth. It is explained from an except www.britannica.com Supply and demand, in economics, is the relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market. The resulting price is referred to as the equilibrium price and represents an agreement between producers and consumers of the good. In equilibrium, the quantity of a good supplied by producers equals the quantity demanded by consumers. So in essence when the demand curve grows the price grows with this, sometimes breaking away with increased high demand. These regions will always be tested (a correction) and then usually continue higher. It is only when this curve is broken the demand is waining that supply becomes abundant, hence causing the price to decrease. In summary, as long as DEMAND is high and increasing, and Bitcoin SUPPLY which we know is fixed or limited, the price will continue to grow. Again a more serious post from me, just alerting you to the fact CRYPTOCURRENCY is here to stay, and this is only the beginning! ********************************************** When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!! ********************************************** If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set-up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
BNC:BLX
by LisaNEdwards
18
End of Super Cycles for Bitcoin & S&P 500My guess on how the 2 supercycles of bitcoin and S&P 500 will likely end. Masses attention on the stock market and cryptos are fading BUT there is still money to be burned and I would expect a victorious new ATH for both the stock market and the crypto to take place somewhere next year! 1. The whole internet is so aware of shorting the market that is "entering recession" due to rise in interest rates and inflation pressures. While at the same time Robinhood gave access to all its members to short. 2. There is still money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a positive turn ( a new dopamine cycle) so to be invested in the market and crypto ( the final burn/trap). The self-fulling prophecy of Bitcoin to 100k has to come "true" prob not 100 but close to 90k so everybody will be joining the last part of the cycle in a super euphoric state. More money traped for decades to come. Aside from crypto a lot of retail is traped on many SPACS/IPOs, if at any given moment there is a relief rally they will put more in order to break even their losses. 3. Covid is still a thing but is slowly fading away... no way in my perspective to allow a market crash while we are returning to "normal", all that money being printed in case of a market crash will not be "burned/spent", we did not even have a proper X-mas yet :) 4. Our heroes Musk+Bezos+Dr Burry warned us of a market crash ( check my previous post about it) 5. Do you think Fed will take the blame for the market crash? All the above statements are out of my head. This is a more philosophical approach rather than a concrete fundamental and technical one, BUT as everybody expects a market crash soon I like to be on the other side...IMO the market will crash when nobody will be thinking about it!!! when inflation will be down, and when Covid will no longer be in our "head". "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Look first/Then Leap
SP:SPX
by Philoslother
3
Before the increases come, everyone will sit in silence. 🕗52day🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Hello everyone, Are you already loaded? Bullrun right there! During the accumulation a flag was drawn, possible continuation of the downward trend after the retest from below (red line). The consequence will be a drop to the next shopping zone of $ 29,500, where there is strong support and many BUY orders. A dozen or so days ago, everyone was counting on this decline, now, after 52 days of accumulation, the mood has changed. If the price breaks up and breaks 0.382 Fibonacci, we should easily reach 50k, then I will be convinced of further increases. Increasingly higher lows and lows will be a great confirmation of a change in the trend. Then I will also create a futures order, which I will inform about in this post. Bitcoin moves in the zone between 45k-33k. A year ago, during the last similar moves, 42k-29k. So does Bitcoin today have 3k-4k bottoms higher than recently? This would prove the creation of a higherlow, in a very long term it would be a great proof of the creation of a SUPERCYCLE. - SayMoney, so buy or sell? - At times like today? Let everyone answer for himself. Comment and like, Greetings
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by SayMoney
Possibilities/Is this supercycle DED>?We broke the down trend unexpectedly, was hoping for a rebuy at 30k sometimes you don't win them all. So we can assume the accumulation is around 33k-35k. Resistance level is from 45-47k a daily close over these positions would indicate we have enough momentum to continue into a newly emerged paradigm, an accepted positive paradigm and the super cycle with no more 80-87% draw downs off ATH 1.5 yrs from the "halvening". Getting there: First we must break 47k but it is not that simple because at that point we would be in the Ichi cloud on the daily candles and when your in the cloud the basic strategy is that is a no trade zone because volatility is usually extremely high. This we rekt shorts and longs, there is no upside to this trade as it is kinda a "dark tunnel" you don't know where you'll be when you exit it. The are a lot of wave analysis going on the charts are to clean and not taking into account the bumpy road getting to those upper levels. Also keep an eye on the RSI and the MACD as some of there levels are being stretched thin. Bear possibility: This could be a last wave of a bull cycle most likely pushing into the cloud but not able to close above, in this case we could see 20s easily. Lets pray we are not winding up for the smash onto support. Though unlikely as we have seen a double top, I have never seen a wave after a double top. Conclusion, If bitcoin goes up they all go up..... lets just hope for that. A lot of VCs and Hedge funds are entering the space aswell as nation states, this could be the year the supercycle fails. Lets go with that..... "Just one trade could get my wife and kids back." -Kewlkat
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by kewlkat
Our generation's economical crossroads?I did this analysis on SPY last October. If you put together context and history on this chart, It's hard to ignore a potential painful scenario. Here are my thoughts. 1) If the markets are truly fundamentally cyclical, we could imagine the past being just versions of the same phenomenon : "When we're highly over-extended, old profitable bags are being sold to young greedy believers of paradigm shifts'" 2) In order for that not to happen, you would technically need factors big enough to outweigh the gravity pull that Newton's law is usually exerting on the market. So the question is : 1) Are these factors powerful enough to break Newton's law? (Gigantic sideline money + Massive influx of new Investors + New economic culture + Other factors I don't know of) 2) If we observe a de-coupling of crypto and traditional markets, should we interpret that as evidence of the point above being true? I am really on the fence between those two thoughts : 1) We're obviously going down, it's pretty crystal clear. Thinking other-wise is being a euphoric noob. 2) We're entering the most chaotic and unpredictable market moves in history and our expectations should be the first thing we doubt. It is a saying that the market has its way of not getting us what we want. The reason why I am being neutral at this point is because I truly see the 3 same scenarios since October 2021 and yet at this point, it seems still too early to confirm any of them. At least through my eyes. Scenarios being : 1) EXPONENTIAL ERA : We enter the so called exponential era that translates into a multi-generational money orgy sort of bubble 2) REGULAR ERA : We go for a real dump (20%-30%-40%), new investors get tricked by either buying the dip too early because they think their edge is infinite or selling the bottom betting on the end of the world, and we continu going up at a regular pace. The laws of the markets prevail. Maybe crypto decouples at that point? 3) MOTHER OF ALL CRASH: We truly are the generation that eats all the compounded shit of human history's past. (Quite skeptical of that one but maybe that's a bad sign?) DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE
AMEX:SPY
by v4rf4lvy
Supercycles every 4 years on BTC. Easy explanation.2013; bitcoin suffered a big correction, it went down around 87%. 4 years after that correction began on 2017 another huge correction took place, this time bitcoin went down around 81% and also 4 years after the 2017 correction on 2021-2022 a new correction might have began? Well I actually think we are actually about to see how btc dumps, probably to 20k, due to the psychological power of 20k and also because it was the 2017 ath. Double top on 65k might be one of the main reasons of this massive dump, resistance on that price range is really heavy. 20k is the fastest and easiest ways to get to 100k+. I might be wrong, just my analysis. Thanks for reading, UrDaddyBB
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by UrDaddyBB
Attention! Bitcoin A.T.H date is 420!!!!Hello Everyone, I made this analysis on the monthly candles and i tried to be as simple & Basic as possible to nail it! and i think i just did! Last A.T.H Elon tweeted a picture showing the chart price at 69,420 and we've got the 69! so i guess the 420 is the date for the supercycle A.T.H.? And finally according to the FIB tool, 130K should be a reasonable A.T.H. for a supercyble without making people feel that it's already too late to invest in BTC. So let me know what you guys think ??
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto-Shrimp
BTC Super CyclesI know many of you will not like this idea. It is a pure speculation based on how the different values like time and percentage decline or rise. I know that time is completely impossible to predict, even prices can range dramatically +-1k%, so my purpose is to share my price view as realistic as possible. Every super cycle consists of two smaller ones. It is hard to get your head around that from 2018-2020 btc was just pausing and moving sideways in a massive range. It was not really a bear market from a supercycle perspective. What took btc 2 months in 2010, it takes almost 3 years right now. Each supercycle takes exponentially longer to play out, percentage gains in each cycle is also declining rapidly in log. fashion: -1st SC (3608943 %) -- 329 d -2nd SC (58398 %) -- 742 d -3rd SC (41981 %) -- 2492 d based on that percentage decline we could expect 30k% for the 4th one. Even if BTC falls to 2.5k it would still be above 700k by the end of the supercycle if 30k % is in the cards. It is just that it would quite possibly take 18-24 years (~7k days based on exp. increase). I expect this bear market to be similar to 2011 where price lost 93%. It is largely because stock market is expected to collapse in 2022 and BTC has never experienced that. Wherever it falls it will eventually rise back up even stronger. Bear markets between supercycles are also getting lengthened exponentially. Not that fast than bull runs but still they do: -1st bear market (-93 %) -- 161 d -2nd bear market (-86 %) -- 406 d due to having only 2 bear markets between the cycles it is even harder to predict how long it could take for the 3rd one as we don't even form exponential line growth from having only 2 values. Needles to say it is lengthening exponentially so to assume that it can take 3 years for the crash to finish is not completely unrealistic. Bottoms are also increasing exponentially: -1st $0.0009 -2nd $2.01 -3rd $163.88 -(4th $2300-$2800) I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Take care.
BNC:BLX
by CR35
5