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Supercycle

Ethereum into 2022 - Fibonacci levelsQuick update on ETH here.... its dominance is growing, less and less ETH available to exchanges could see the price rocket, huge fund advisors like Pal going very bullish but lets just assess the situation first, we saw flash crash last friday just outside midweek market hours and if bears take control, we need to see where ETH is likely to follow.. fib levels are my steady go to, already with a spike hitting the 38.2% level, will it go further south? still very dependant on bitcoin but dollar strength will play a part as DXY grows (see other chart) keep an eye on 9pm UTC and the market opens that come monday, these markets might make all the news if these defaults hit in hard! have a powerful week ahead and festive wishes for last of 2021
by majorlee
BTC Bubble and Return to the MeanI'll be the first person to call myself a Bitcoin bull. I have been daily cost averaging Bitcoin as an investment for a while now, but I am also realistic about the asset and know that no amount of hopium can make what I want happen unless the market wills it to be so. So, with that preface, I give you my projection for the next year. As with all long timeframe projections, this is just an educated guess using historical data. I have no special crystal ball and I don't have any super powers that let me see in to the future. If you have been trading markets for any length of time, you've probably come across an image often referred to as the "Anatomy of a Bubble" that illustrates the 5 Stages of A bubble . While I don't think Bitcoin is going to completely collapse, all markets experience periods exuberance which lead to this pattern. To illustrate my idea more clearly, I've created this handy infographic to accompany my chart analysis If we zoom out on the weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin has been in a nice and clean upward channel since, at least, August 2011. At this scale, each cycle can be clearly seen, each extending above the EQ, sometimes touching but always coming close to, the upper mark of the range. This most recent cycle, began in March 2020 with the global market panic that crashed not just crypto but also legacy markets around the world. By February 2021, Bitcoin had reached the EQ of this trend channel and there it remained, unable to continue, for the next two months, finally losing momentum in May, unable to have a high extend up and reach the EQ for another time. Now look back at the prices one year earlier, in 2019, we see a similar pattern. Price started around halfway between the range lows and the EQ, proceeded up to the EQ where it remained for a couple of months, eventually dropping back down to the range lows... Look again at the pattern for 2020 to present... looks familiar, does it not? If we assume patterns repeat, at least approximately, we can project forward from where we are today and see what the rest of the year is likely to look like. As of the time of this writing, prices are below the 0.5 DOW marker and while it's still early in the week, the current weekly candle does not look promising. Unless major support is found in the next couple of days, I expect price will continue to retrace to the 0.382 fib, just as it did back in 2019. From there, I expect we will find support, at least temporarily, a rally from there will lead us back to the golden pocket between 0.618 - 0.65 and if we are unable to break through the infamous 42k boundary and hold it, I fully expect panic will set in for many retail traders and investors which will drive us in to the capitulation and despair phase of the cycle, down to around $20k at the 0.236 and the ATH that was set back in 2017. As I said in the beginning of my post, I am bullish on Bitcoin from a hyper macro perspective, but it's not a straight line, so buckle your seat belts. The road is about to get even bumpier.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tedwardd
Have to take into account all possibilitiesMy personal time learning to do TA especially with bitcoin is to try and find multiple outcomes both bearish and bullish. I have seen too many in this space get too deep into a one-sided bias and watch their losses be quite substantial because of it. Mostly that has to do with expecting bitcoin, or any asset for that matter, has to hit a specific target and get stuck in a cycle of showing only the possibilities to reach that specific target. So what is presented here is a real possibility based off of a bitcoin nearing the end of a 5-wave super-cycle. Elliot Waves which make up a lot of what is seen here are always speculative so, as always, this post is highly speculative but also shown with confluence. This to me makes it a real possibility. The main ideas to take from this: (Note: I choose the 2W time frame here as it is the best way to present this idea clearly.) The logarithmic curve which has been shown to be resistance through-out bitcoin's history is nearing yet another touch at the top. Not shown but for each 1, 3, 5 there are smaller 5 impulsive waves within each and also 2 and 4 have a proper A,B,C correction. The target of ~75k is based off of both a touch on the log curve and Gann's Solar Dates theory to start. This would be another post to explain all together but will show how accurate the dates have been for quite some time now by the time frames I've highlighted and how they have correlated with bottoms and tops. December 6 is near enough to Dec 1st to warrant it as possible: The current Elliot Wave count shown on the daily suggests that the top could be in as it is getting rejected around the 0.618, but I look towards the 0.786 as a possible target or anywhere in between: This shows a fractal taken from the previous tops back earlier this year and comparing it to now. RSI is predicted here as well. It also shows a top getting close to 75k near the December 6th date as shown by previous images: The targets for the A,B,C correction and an eventual possible bottom of around 6.5k: The timing is based off of the 2013 double top as shown. This would put the bottom sometime in January 2023. The Elliot Wave shows a path of 5 waves for A, 3 for B, 5 for C. C does over-extend the one-to-one but bitcoin has done that often for its last wave down in the past. I tried to match these as close as possible to areas of historical support and resistance. The trend line (on a log scale) from the bottom in 2018 & 2020 does cross at this date at this 6.5k price pretty accurately. The target is also a because of a possible H&S forming with the neckline around 40k. The target of this formation is shown to be ~35k downwards as highlighted here: I do not believe a H&S would form based from these last 2 ATH during the year as a scenario for that would have a target of under $0. I do not believe that would happen. The last shows that there is a very high volume node in this area and also a lot of historical price action as well: This is of course a very bearish scenario but based off of my research it does show a lot of confluence to make this a possibility to take seriously. The target is just coming from the TA done here so I do not think of this as a certainly at all as too much can always happen in the next year. But I feel that looking to a drastic scenario as shown needs to be taken seriously as long as proper TA is conducted and confluence is showing as a result. Straying too far towards one bias is just an easy way to get Rek't and I continually train myself to avoid it. I do have bullish targets too but will have to be another post as this one is already long enough! Hope these ideas can help and at the least show something different and to see things from different perspectives. This asset requires it from all that trade and/or invest in it. ***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
BNC:BLX
by WITSIT
2
180K Bitcoin Top?Exciting times for Bitcoin and crypto in general. 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run has been insanely similar to 2012-2013's bull run. Especially when it comes to price action. In both cycles April has been the mid-cycle top followed by a 3 month re-accumulation period. Q4 is also off to a great start. The RSI has been a very useful indicator, in 2013 the local top and end of cycle top both touch the blue trend line before falling. Although the local top this year wasnt defined when the RSI hit its peak, id say its still something to pay close attention to if youre trying to sell at the "Top". If you check the monthly, youll notice the second touch of the RSI top trend line marks the end of the bull market every time so far in Bitcoins existence. Of course just because something has happened in the past doesnt mean it will happen in the future, I'd say it has shown any signs of how this cycle could be different. Institutional demand along with country demand is a huge difference but human nature tends to stay the same more or less. Just because bigger entities are buying into Bitcoin doesnt save Bitcoin from going through psychological market cycles like it has in the previous 2 cycles. It will just be a different scale. There are super cycle theories, however, which I dont find impossible either. No one knows the future but to give us the best odds in deciphering which of the 2 might happen, pay EXTREMELY close attention to the sentiment. Check the fear and greed index regularly, along with the RSI. If we have a steady climb with healthy sell offs in-between throughout these next few months then it increases the odds of a super cycle. But if you see us making ATH after ATH daily, with little to no corrections then that would increase the odds of the 4 year cycle theory. I personally will probably sell most if not all my crypto bags when the monthly or weekly RSI trend line is hit, especially if the 4.236 fib level is reached. Using the local top of 2013 as the initial point, the 4.236 level marked the top of the cycle. It wicked a little higher but that level seems very important to watch for this cycle as well. This level was about $950 give or take depending how you draw your retracement, and the weekly close at the top was $948! It also touched the RSI on the same week it topped. Ill be expecting something similar to this year(Or beginning of next!) Using the fib retracement from the mid cycle top of this year, the 4.236 level is marked at 183k give or take. So i would be on the look out for a 180K top with a possible wick up to the 200K level. I hope this helps out everyone who reads this, good luck everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by anamaly
Black Swan - Tinfoil Hat PlayWith the synchronized outages of social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, & Twitter ... so far ... conspiracists have been saying for sometime to expect a national/global cyber attack that could create some sort of internet blackout. If this happens, I'd expect Bitcoin to crash to the predictive 1.5 fib that sits around 27.6k . Then the whales have filled up their bags giving the greenlight for a supercycle. I've deleveraged - I'm not expecting this to happen, but leverage isn't something I'd want to play around with when this social media outage could create a scare/flashcrash.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ungovernable
5
Doge set to go sky high!We are in a clear pattern here; we’ve been in the maroon channel since sub one cent, and within the green dashed cone fib channel we are arriving on the 1.618 zone just in time for this next cycle. The 1.618 zone has been a pivotal level of retracement within Bitcoin’s history—it adhered to this during 2013, 2017, and now, which is funny because the super cycle scenario of 2013 is happening now for Bitcoin upon examining its chart. The yellow lines are corresponding lines, meaning they represent each cycles pumps, and the red lines represent each cycles dumps—what’s funny is that if you notice on the rise beginning at eight cents to now they form the image of a Doge head… ha ha ha, irony is good… there’s a literal fractal Doge formation in the channel! The turquoise curve is a smooth representation of the yellow and red trend lines. Doge has hit the top of its channel each time since it’s validation within, therefore I believe it will be hitting the top this time around. Bitcoin analysis is linked as related.
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by Elijah144
8
NIFTY WILL CORRECT UPTO11300Using my vast experience in Elliot wave labelling, I charted a super cycle count for NIFTY INDEX. NIFTY Completed its 5 legged 3rd wave and extended its ''B'' Wave recovery(Running flat correction)to16700 A five legged wave 'C' of WAVE ''4'' will bring the index to minimum 38.2% to 11300 before April 22 and oscillate up and down till July24 We have more time to resume 5 th wave ,which will make you richer again to 25000 NOW its time to play with bears
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by selvamB
7
Natural Gas Breakout is Imminent Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities. To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that over the coming 1-3 years. Regardless, we need to trade the market in front of us, and as such we only really care about the next 3 months when it comes to near-term risk management. Over the next 2-3 months I would not be surprised to see Natural Gas hit a multi-year high between $4 and $6. Given that inflation is non-linear and is really accelerating, its conceivable it could go to $10 in a major commodity reflation move. Our Macro Nowcasting Machines with a 60-90% success rate in predicting growth and inflation 3-5 months out (the forecast gets more accurate the closer we get) says that Quad 2 growth and inflation accelerating will peak just before the summer. April-May time period. Following that will be a decelerating of growth and inflation, so we will have to risk manage that drawdown proactively. But we are not there yet so we must focus on Natural Gas's upside in the immediate term. The same holds true for commodities broadly, including uranium, fertilizer, agriculture, crude, and copper/industrial metals. Looking at the 1H timeframe we can see a healthy consolidation of higher lows and volume/momentum indicators that are not near being overbought. The volatility signal shows volatility can go much lower which is a good thing for price. Breakout is imminent. Looking at Natty through the lense of market positioning, the net long position in natty more than doubled the week before last (last week's data comes out tomorrow, will provide an update) which is a huge move. The 3month average net long was added in a single week. But the max net long position over 3Y lookback is 2.5x the current net long. In summary, Natty is not crowded, it is not a consensus position, and has significant upside. If you haven't been hedging for inflation that last 5-10 months where have you been?
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
[UPDATE TOTAL MARKET] WHEN WILL THE BULL MARKET END? Hi guys, I UPDATED MY PREVIOUS ANALYSIS (SEE THE RELATED IDEA BELOW). IN APRIL I WROTE THE FOLLOWING: "1) Based on the first macro Fibonacci extension and the fib circles, it looks likes we are approaching the next crash which will occur in May (-40%-45%?). This is exactly what happened in the previous cycles. The crypto market will go down once it reaches 3.2T$ However good news. This is not the end of the cycle. 2) Based on the second macro Fibonacci extension , the fib cycles, and the fib time zone, it looks like we will top out between the end of Aug and Sept. This is exactly what happened in the previous cycles. The crypto market will go crash once it reaches 17T$. I'm not sure there will be a super cycle. Apr 17 Comment: The crash of May could be triggered once the crypto market reaches 2.7T$ too (3.618 Fibonacci). Therefore, let's say that the range for the crash could be between 2.7T$ and 3.2T$. (might be wrong but I'm pretty there has to be crash before the last pump. The same for the final crash. It might be triggered at 14T$ (3.618 Fibonacci. Therefore, let me say that the range for the final crash could be between 14T and 17T$. See you at the top Apr 22 Comment: The point I draw could be not super perfect! The crash/slow down could have already started in April and could continue in May? That makes sense --> we are at the 2.618 Fibonacci level." ----- WELL IT DID HAPPEN EXAAAACTLY AS PREDICTED. NOW I'M SEEING TWO SCENARIOS: - SCENARIO A - shorter timeframe - SCENARIO B - longer timeframe Enjoy.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Homocryptus
Are we entering a commodity super-cycle?Definition of a commodity super-cycle: Commodity super cycles are decade-long periods in which commodities trade above their long-term price trend. Technical Analysis: Using a weekly candlestick to see the bigger picture. DBC is breaking out of a 10 year long downtrend. On Balance Volume is supportive, as it is also breaking higher, reaching levels from a decade before. We are breaking and testing $18.5, which is a very long-term resistance; now potentially turning into support. This is a long-term setup. R1, R2 and R3 are potential targets to take some profits. Fundamental factors: Weakening dollar Supportive central banks Fiscal stimulus geared for infrastructure spending Pent-up demand once as global economies re-open. Government and private companies increasingly pledging carbon reduction measures. Inflation ticking higher, as the Fed is taking a new approach of waiting, rather than anticipating, as it has done in the past.
AMEX:DBCLong
by dorfmanmaster
IS BITCOIN ABOUT TO RAIN BEAR TEARS?Dear Traders and Hopeaholics alike, For those that have followed me for a while, will know BEAR TEARS are one of my favouite things, to start... and before reading... have "Journey - Don't Stop Believin" playing in the background to set the mood after all I am the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short) , so as you laugh... I'd like to remind you, so far my long-term charts are all VERY ACCURATE ... So while many of you are waiting to BUY the 20K region, I am going to tell you why, you might just want to start buying now. I gave you this chart... which we are in the internal 4th wave of the greater 3rd. While we pierced the TECHNICAL PIVOT we have bounced strongly and held the long-term pattern by a wick. The INTERNAL WAVE PITCHFORK INTERNAL 4TH WAVE CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE To follow up the pattern I have added a pitchfork and taking you on a wild carpet ride through some scenarios I believe show where the market is going! CHART 1 below shows the pitchfork clearly holding supports. s3.tradingview.com CHART 2 It is only just the beginning for BITCOIN, the pitchfork taken from the beginning of time, also shows support. s3.tradingview.com CHART 3 Using ELLIOTT WAVE here, I show the potential wave pathway. s3.tradingview.com CHART 4 Here again using ELLIOTT WAVE PROJECTION, the internal 3rd wave Pathway. CHART 5 In ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY the 4th Wave is generally a Triangle and due to this being a BULL MARKET I believe this is the most likely pathway. A bullish rising wedge. s3.tradingview.com These wave patterns are still viable to take BITCOIN to my previous prediction of $142,000 for the Greater 3rd Wave Pattern shown. BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE EXPLAINED For those that are new to my charts, here is the explanation of why I think this is valid and continues to be so. ******************************************************************************************************************************************** One day... a long long time ago in a faraway land (Australia) there was a man who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto... now he invented Bitcoin, and gave it a limited supply, of 21million coins, to date about 18.5million have been mined... It is estimated one-third of those mined coins are forever out of circulation, being forgotten about, lost wallets or passwords... but cannot be accessed ever again... There is also increased mining difficulty. This process has adapted over time... On launch, miners received 50 BTC in 2012 it halved to 25 BTC then 2016 again halving to 12.5 BTC and last year on 11th May 2020 we are now down to a mere 6.25BTC (as of today's writing this that is approximately $300,000.00 USD) Bitcoin's inflation rate is lowered effectively at the 4year mark, and the algorithmic math difficulty increased, making it harder for the computers to "guess" or "crack" 64-digit hexadecimal number (a "hash") this can take trillions of attempts. With this, mining difficulty increased, it is estimated the last BITCOIN may not be mined until 2140 long after we have all left this Earth or if the network no longer continues to exist. Post 21 million coins mined - Bitcoin is designed to function as a closed market/economy, with transaction fees similar to taxes. At some stage for long-term survival, these fees will need to be capped or managed. So where is all this going you may ask... What Satoshi Nakamoto failed to take into consideration in this model, was SUPPLY AND DEMAND, in a closed market when demand is high and supply is limited, PRICE can increase in large increments, causing the price to rise in significant amounts in short periods. As we are seeing on the chart now. Over the next few months more and more you will hear, the term SUPER CYCLE, which I explain here. The total crypto market cap it is an Elliott Wave term that explains the strong demand and growth within a market in a short period of time. Why BITCOIN is not a PONZI is the strong demand within the market currently, and with demand we achieve growth. It is explained from an except www.britannica.com Supply and demand, in economics, the relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market. The resulting price is referred to as the equilibrium price and represents an agreement between producers and consumers of the good. In equilibrium, the quantity of a good supplied by producers equals the quantity demanded by consumers. So in essence when the demand curve grows (the parabola is shown on the chart) the price grows with this, sometimes breaking away with increased high demand. These regions will always be tested (a correction) and then usually continue higher. It is only when this curve is broken the demand is waining that supply becomes abundant, hence causing the price to decrease. In summary, as long as DEMAND is high and increasing, and Bitcoin SUPPLY which we know is fixed or limited, the price will continue to grow. Again a more serious post from me, just alerting you to the fact CRYPTOCURRENCY is here to stay, and this is only the beginning! ********************************************** When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!! ********************************************** If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
BNC:BLXLong
by LisaNEdwards
66
Buy opportunity at $150. PT $480Buying zone between $219 (0.5 retracement) and $122.88 (0.854 retracement of the first impulse). Looking at the RSI trajectory and the MACD bearish signal in the weekly we are likely to cross the 200 EMA to $147.35 (0.764 retracement), a zone that has been acting as support and resistance for the past few months. Baidu closed the second retracement of the supercycle in March 2020. Currently consolidating the second wave of the third impulse, which will be the largest, with a target of between $483.5 (1.618 extension) and $562.88 (2 extension) if the bottom of the second wave is confirmed at $147.35. In the event that the bottom of the second wave is at the 0.5 retracement (where we are now), targets would be between $458.37 (1.68) and $522.22 (2). Overview : First buy order (25% of the position) at $190. Second buy order (75% of the position) at $150 Sell orders (depending on the last bottom): between $455 and $562 in the beginning of 2023. +50% annualized profit . Like and subscribe if you liked the idea and want more. Comment with your opinions. Any idea is appreciated. Manage risk properly and don't invest more than you can afford.
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by HumanBias
1