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Supercycle

ETH/USDT - are we in for a weeks long consolidation ?Hi all, ETH remains intact in the uptrend channel, trading closer and closer to its lower boundary on the daily timeframe. The action reminds me a lot of what we saw back in July-October 2020 - aggressive rise leading to a momentum peak followed by a 30% correction, then a narrowing price action towards the diagonal support as part of the uptrend corridor. Since the fundamentals are clearly strong, but the price cannot just continue moving upward, we need a little breaker, a cooldown period, so new buyers are attracted and old ones are either pushed out of the market via leveraged position liquidations or forced to rebalance their portfolios. Additionally, a lower price means a lower entry point for institutional players. A market crash though won't serve good to anyone, so I think we will stay in the zone below $1,900 at least until the end of April. The yellow arrow marks the projected path if history repeats itself. Best Regards
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by FutureBlockchain
2
Uniswap (UNIUSDT) buy targets triggersHello guys, No need to panic here. Just a look at the bigger picture and you will see how intact the uptrend remains for Uniswap. Given the solid fundamentals around the upcoming exchange version 3, I don't see a reason for a selloff or a market-caused depression lol. I see a similar pattern for most of the majors that popped up after the last bull run- LINK, UNI, DOT etc. Solid uptrend with the price crawling up by hitting the lower and upper boundaries of the channel. The current price level around the 50-day EMA is a good entry point in the formed trading range. Next will be the accumulation zone near $22.5. Cheers,
Long
by FutureBlockchain
Tidewater - Reversal of a 10-year long downward trendA new oil prices bull market should favor small & micro cap equities of the oil & gas sector, which reached depressed levels after a 10-year downward trend, giving them the risk-return profile of call options. We consider that the risk-reward offered by Tidewater, despite its very volatile price, is more than attractive given its low valuation and its growth potential in a new oil bull market. Disclaimer : I am long TDW.
NYSE:TDWLong
by UnknownUnicorn12046529
WELCOME TO THE BITCOIN SUPERCYCLEDear Traders and Hopeaholics alike, as the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short), I gave you this chart... Which has hit with the most EPIC precision! If I don't toot my own horn... who will do it... Let's hope the market doesn't humble me and continues to grow... HA HA yes, I can laugh at myself. And I am about to tell you why I think we are only at the beginning... One day... a long long time ago in a faraway land (Australia) there was a man who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto... now he invented Bitcoin, and gave it a limited supply, of 21million coins, to date about 18.5million have been mined... It is estimated one-third of those mined coins are forever out of circulation, being forgotten about, lost wallets or passwords... but cannot be accessed ever again... There is also increased mining difficulty. This process has adapted overtime... On launch, miners received 50 BTC in 2012 it halved to 25 BTC then 2016 again halving to 12.5 BTC and last year on 11th May 2020 we are now down to a mere 6.25BTC (as of today's writing this that is approximately $300,000.00 USD) Bitcoin's inflation rate is lowered effectively at the 4year mark, and the algorithmic math difficulty increased, making it harder for the computers to "guess" or "crack" 64-digit hexadecimal number (a "hash") this can take trillions of attempts. With this, mining difficulty increased, it is estimated the last BITCOIN may not be mined until 2140 long after we have all left this Earth or if the network no longer continues to exist. Post 21 million coins mined - Bitcoin is designed to function as a closed market/economy, with transaction fees similar to taxes. At some stage for long-term survival, these fees will need to be capped or managed. So where is all this going you may ask... What Satoshi Nakamoto failed to take into consideration in this model, was SUPPLY AND DEMAND , in a closed market when demand is high and supply is limited, PRICE can increase in large increments, causing the price to rise in significant amounts in short periods. As we are seeing on the chart now. Over the next few months more and more you will hear, the term SUPER CYCLE , which I explain here. it is an Elliott Wave term that explains the strong demand and growth within a market in a short period of time. Why BITCOIN is not a PONZI is the strong demand within the market currently, and with demand we achieve growth. It is explained from an except www.britannica.com Supply and demand, in economics, the relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market. The resulting price is referred to as the equilibrium price and represents an agreement between producers and consumers of the good. In equilibrium, the quantity of a good supplied by producers equals the quantity demanded by consumers. So in essence when the demand curve grows (the parabola is shown on the chart) the price grows with this, sometimes breaking away with increased high demand. These regions will always be tested (a correction) and then usually continue higher. It is only when this curve is broken the demand is waining that supply becomes abundent, hence causing the price to decrease. In summary, as long as DEMAND is high and increasing, and Bitcoin SUPPLY which we know is fixed or limited, the price will continue to grow. Again a more serious post from me, just alerting you to the fact CRYPTOCURRENCY is here to stay, and this is only the beginning! ********************************************** When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!! ********************************************** If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
BNC:BLX
by LisaNEdwards
17
IS CRYPTOCURRENCY & BITCOIN ENTERING A SUPER CYCLE?Dear Traders and Hopeaholics alike, It seems I am having the last laugh with my charts hitting targets, and it is now time to update my long term predictions, so as the self-proclaimed president of HOPE-A-HOLICS ANONYMOUS (HA for short) I give you the TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP SUPER CYCLE!!! Before I hear you shouting HA HA HA, and I do appreciate your support :) Hear me out... WHAT IS A SUPER CYCLE? As many of you know, I am an ELLIOT WAVE ANALYST, and I have adapted this successfully for cryptocurrency, which moves in highly volatile movements, sometimes not following the rules exactly, but what we do know is that my system works, as I have shown. Wave measurements hit pivot points, allowing the analyst to know the direction, or eliminate potential wave movements as targets confirm. AND CONFIRM IS WHAT THESE PATTERNS HAVE DONE!!! After charting the #CRYPTOTOTALMARKETCAP for some time, I decided to strip it back and start counting the waves and subwaves of subwaves and DUN DUN (insert Law & Order sounds) and this is what I've found... In the book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, he describes this wave formation as a SUPERCYCLE or a GRAND SUPERCYCLE. The Grand Supercycle is the longest period, or wave, in the growth of a financial market as described by the Elliott wave principle. Like all Elliott waves, Grand Supercycle waves are subdivided into smaller generations of waves. The next smaller generation of waves are those of Supercycle degree. Modern applications of the Wave Principle also describe waves of larger degree spanning larger periods of time. In this case after a BEAR MARKET 2-4years. With this in mind, we are almost one year into this cycle which commenced in March 2020 with the bottom forming in BITCOIN at this point. AND IF YOU DOUBT ELLIOTT WAVE WORKS IN CRYPTO... CLICK THE PLAY BUTTON ON THIS CHART In the chart above I quote THE TECHNICAL STUFF Taking current ATH as WAVE 1 - we have a complete ABC corrective structure and currently in WAVE 3 - Potential high $27,000 and as much as $32,000 with some added FOMO. This chart is a 12month chart showing greater movement and showing GRAND SUPER CYCLE IN ELLIOTT WAVE . While it is still very possible that this could be the top, looking at the volume entering the market here on this TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP CHART and confirmation of TECHNICAL PIVOT to take us higher, BITCOIN AND THE ALTCOIN MARKETS are about to go into wave extensions taking us into the GRAND SUPER CYCLE!!!! RSI shows in the previous cryptocurrency bullrun we can stay in this region for extended periods of time, previously 2 years, and being as this is the 3rd wave, it is likely for this period to be the same if not longer. It seems this is one of my more serious posts, just alerting you to the fact CRYPTOCURRENCY is here to stay, and this is only the beginning! ********************************************** When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!! ********************************************** If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by LisaNEdwards
23
VALE3: Long on Elliott Wave (III)/Compra por Onda (III)VALE3 has just confirmed its start of a WAVE (III) in SuperCycle degree. We should see a strong push to the upside in the coming months and quarters, with the 1.618 expansion at R$ 415. The whole advance from Early 2016 until the just broken out top "V" shows a clear 5 wave pattern, and that was labeled in Cycle degree as WAVE (I). The correction that ensued up till the corona virus/Oil glut - Russia vs. Saudis - bear market was labeled as a corrective WAVE (II). VALE3 acaba de confirmar o início de uma ONDA (III) de grau SuperCíclico. Devemos observar uma força vigorosa empurrando os preços para cima nos meses e trimestres a seguir, com a expansão de fibo batendo em R$ 415. A subida desde o começo de 2016 até o topo recém rompido "V", revela um padrão de 5 ondas, que foi rotulado a nível cíclico como ONDA (I). A correção que se deu até uns meses atrás com o Corona-Virus/Crise do Petróleo "Russia-Arábia Saudita" foi rotulada como ONDA (II).
BMFBOVESPA:VALE3Long
by geraldelli
BTC Moves on This Path....?Playing around with the log chart, just trying to get some concept of where the price extremes are and where important lines (like ATH) converge. The last market cycle had bitcoin making its ATH seven weeks before the previous ATH converged with the bottom trend line. If the same thing were to happen this cycle, and the high comes in exactly on the top trend line, then we'd see a high of around $200K on the 13th of November, 2023. That's still a ways off, but I think I can live with that kind of return in just over three years :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JamesBrown
5
McAfee was right about BTC $1 mil, but 1 year ahead. $16k AprilThis TA is based on a lot of trendlines by monthly and weekly, also by past cycles. This bullish summer indicates a strong demand for Bitcoin and which could be the reason we see a super cycle. I mean, the fundamentals are much better and the overall recognition is much bigger now. On top of that we have countries as Venezuela and Argentina fueling the fire for a way out. Hong Kong as well. Ethereum and XRP wont take as much dominance as last time. We do have twice the amount coins though. Will those eat of the BTC dominance pie, or just share the small piece with everyone else..? I know it is a TA with a lot of trendlines. I know them all. For me, I believe they put paint on a picture. We are exactly at the same place as we were back in December 2015. So from here to $16k I see 4 out of 5 green monthly candles to April. I am a beginner at this, but long term there is more room for being more accurate than short term. This is a updated version of my first TA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TomasPhilosophy
Bitcoin Plays Like a Beautiful MelodyErr herrm. I hate to boast, but you would too if you were this good. I hate to say it but Bitcoin is somewhat predictable. How I wish I wasn't in slumberland while it played out its beautiful melody. I would have loved to savour every moment of its graceful descent. If you are not already following me, then you would have missed out on my on-point analysis of its descending triangle trajectory. Well done if you are and if you took the time to read my ideas thoroughly and managed to find the link to that idea. Kudos to you if you took my advice. Bitcoin played right into the devil's lair and hit the mark spot on as predicted on the private chart I published for Purple Crypto Premium (above). It broke easily through the base of the triangle, shot right down into the price range surrounding the end of sub wave 4 of this super cycle and is now hanging around the 0.5 fibb (8500 for BTC/USD and 8578 for BTC/USDT), exactly as predicted. Papa Bear lets out a big growl. "Enough already", he says, crashing while testing the 1/2 trajectory on the Gann fan, then retreating back to safe haven. The ease with which it broke the triangle through to a previous fair value should open eyes, if it hasn't already. But is it over? I don't believe it is just yet. Where to from here? My analysis on Papa Bear Heading Down is still in play. For it to be able to start sub wave 4 of this super cycle, it needs to head back down to said levels in that analysis. It will (should) return to 7800 (USDT) at the least. Whether that happens gradually or not, only Big Brother knows. If I am to guess his desire to maintain a 1/1 Gann trajectory, it would be the former. The most positive thing you can take out of this is to learn who not to follow. That's right...all the amateurs who said the triangle would break up. Stay tuned... (PAPA BEAR'S FUTURE PROJECTION applies in its ensuing A-B-C corrective wave)
by PurpleCrypto
RECESSION IMPENDING?(PART2)FED RATES SUPERCYCLE|PREMIUM ANALYSISFED INTEREST RATES( FRED ) - Extension(PART 2) to the US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of August 2019 (9-10 Minute Read) Everyone complains about the FED rates. That's our only job, it seems . Judging by his tweets, no one has been more eager to express their dissatisfaction, than Pres. Trump (bit' of sarcasm) . This is Part 2 - of an extremely complex(Premium) cycle analysis . The purpose of this chart is to showcase the historical relationship between FED Rates and economic cycles . In order to understand this analysis; in depth historical knowledge of the FED's Monetary Policy is necessary (besides my personal need, of my work actually being understood properly). Now, let's start with a chronological setup(Blue #number labels) that will be used to analyse rates. The beginning of the Bullish Cone was the Impulsive Intermediate Wave 1(in the late 50's ). By the early 70's and the occurrence of the OPEC crisis ; a supercyclical Wave 1 and 2 were formed. Wave 2 gave the bottom support of the Bullish cone in FED interest rates. As it's labelled on the chart the importance of the bullish cone is that it signifies the Peak of Capitalism . The implications of this peak were a consumption driven economy, combined with excessive cycle volatility. At the same time this was the Fixed Incomes' Golden Age ; as practically every American individual was told that buying a house is the utmost important aim in life. Obviously at the time, this was quite logical, since home equity is an effective way to protect your wealth from inflation. The Fibonacci Circles used on the chart show the pattern of cycles that formed the Bullish Cone. Each end of a circle forms a trough and consequently a peak in a given cycle time span. What Changed ? - Our understanding of Monetary policy changed (Credit to Barro and Gordon,1983) . The early 80's were extremely turbulent years with immensely high inflation . The end result was an exit out of the old equilibrium and a break-off from the Bullish Cone, into a new Equilibrium . The trend that formed the New Equilibrium in general economic terms is referred to as the "Great Moderation" . This is why the chart is divided with a cross, centered around Q2,1984 that was the start of the "Great Moderation". The occurrence of this event can be observed in the clear difference with the synch of the sin-line with the different cycles between the 2 periods. The new equilibrium is extensively supported by the rise of Globalization . In effect this is the first part of this analysis. Part 2 of this analysis is, what started this idea with the downward trending wedge ( Pitchfork ) in interest rates since the "Great Moderation". This was my primary sketch from a week ago. Just so, I am not boring and do not repeat myself- I will not discuss the labels post 84' neither on the sketch or the chart. What is important in the current interest rate environment are the implications of the prolong duration of these extremely low rates . Hence, the chart is divided between 2% and below(RED) and above Green . The rationale behind this division, is that there are plenty of fundamental issues that appear if rates are lower than 2%(in addition to low growth/inflation). Unfortunately we've practically been in such environment for about 9 years now . Implications of this environment can be credited to James Bullards (2016) "Perma-Zero" paper. One of the major issues is the trade-off between debt and equity . In the current environment stocks on average are trading 14-17 x(times) their earnings (x17 P/E) . We have an enormous amount of laughable companies available to stay in business with continuously negative EPS . One example that I can think of is WeWork Ltd . (In order to spread awareness, I need your help on this one- comment as many companies that come on you mind that fit this description) . This is a healthy and necessary discussion to have . Low rates do stimulate innovation, but the inevitable cost is that due to competition- the majority of these startups become unproductive and hardly ever profitable.The best description that I think it fits these worthless capital soaking "Business Ideas" is to classify them as Malinvestments . Finally, what's the conclusion of this extensive FED rates analysis? - Borrowing Capital should have some baseline cost (2-4% would be quite an optimal range) . As discussed in Link #1 and Part 1 of this series based on the VIX that analysed the probability and timing of the next recession; - I t is nearing . Unfortunately, we will not have rate cuts as a tool to stimulate the markets. Whether it is obvious or not; we are quite overdue for a recession . This can also be observed from the sin-line at the bottom right corner; implying a bottom of the cycle in the next 2-3 years . Essentially, this is the reason- why I have dedicated much of my time to at least attempt to provide a series of ideas in my content, that include proper interpretation of the most crucial financial and economic factors . This idea concludes the extension to the SPX Sector series. Hope you enjoyed it and found it useful. |Step_Ahead_oftheMarket| >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! I do realize that my charts are quite hard to be understood, mostly because they are labelled to the smallest and extremest of details. If there are any poor understandings of the labels, I'd be able to answer any additional questions in the comments. {Make sure to check out my previous ideas and my series on US( SPX ) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} 1. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index 2. Series Finale ; Episode 11: US Utilities( XLU ) 3. SPX : Elliott Wave Analysis of the current Cycle Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copy-right option, but it is what it is.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
4
Ameican Stock Market Grand Supercyle, 9 Waves from 1789 to 2200s Unfortunately Tradingview doesn't have the complete historical chart of American stock market dating back to the 1830s or even 1790s, the age of Philadelphia "Board of Brokers". I'll try to explain briefly here: www.chartertrust.com 1790s to 1835: 1st Wave 1835 to 1842: 2nd Wave 1842 to 1929: 3rd Wave 1929 to 1932: 4th Wave Now is the important part: 1932 to now and the next 1-2 centuries: the GIGANTIC EXTENDED 5th Wave, which is comprised of 5 major waves, each similar in length to the previous 4 Waves. Therefore the gigantic bullish run from 18th century to 23rd century should be divided into 9 Waves, not just 5 Waves. Some people have worried that 2000 is the end of Wave 5 of Wave 5, possibly leading to unprecedented crashes which would never be regained in a couple of centuries, comparable to the Dark Ages after the collapse of Roman Empire. History proved them wrong, the only viable explanation is that this Wave 5 is super extended, and the Grand Supercycle starting in 18th century is better described as a 9 Wave structure. Therefore: 1932 to 2000: 5th Wave 2000 to 2009: 6th Wave correction 2009 to 2070s or 2090s: 7th Wave Late 21st century: 8th Wave correction Late 21st century to 2100s or 2200s: Final 9th Wave, with crazy inflation to pay for the expanding American Empire's always expanding bureaucracy, like what the Roman Emperors did. I put the Final end in the 2200s, assuming the future American Empire would have a similar lifespan to the ancient Roman Empire. If so, the American Empire would have its 3rd Century Crisis in the 2200s. Of course, with the modern society being much faster in many aspects, the future American Empire might start having big trouble earlier, possibly in the 2100s. I have to say this is not entirely fantasy, considering the rise of Donald Trump, some of his supporters being from the neoreactionary movement, and some of those neoreactionary people considering military dictatorship in the Roman fashion as a favorable alternative to Democracy. Of course they will take a long time to hold more political power, therefore I say the USA might only become a true caesarist or neoreactionary Empire in the end of 21st century, or the beginning of 22nd century, annexing Canada, Australia, the UK and some other countries. Back to the smaller picture, DJI has finished its Wave 4 correction of the Wave I of the 7th Wave, 50000 in 2022 or 2023 is a reasonable target for Wave 5 of Wave I. I put the end of Wave I at 2022 or 2023 according to Wave theory, and also the demographic cycle of USA. With the ever diminishing American birth rate and tightening of immigration intake and unfavorable trade conditions and the Artificial Intelligence bubble, Wave II might be some huge crashes in 2023 and 2024. I will elaborate more on this in the next article.
DJ:DJILong
by MarcusAu