SPY - Fibonacci as an important message SHORTFibonacci is telling us something important!
It is almost the end of the party for the SPY and SP500. Almost on our way to 280 for the SPY, 2 800 for the SP500.
All the best for your trades!
Supercycle
SP500 super cycles: Yearly picture not in favor of crashHere is an interesting analysis of the yearly picture on the SP500. Contrary to shorter timeframes, where the weekly and monthly show that we could have quite a stockmarket correction this year, the yearly picture looks much more bullish.
If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong fractal similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun.
If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun.
I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a fractal idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this.
Other similarities:
1.Widening bollinger band in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns.
2. Stoch RSI on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.
S&P 500 Economic Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?Here's my modest attempt to identify S&P 500 Supercycles.
The chart shows the S&P 500 (monthly bars) since 1872 on a log scale.
Maybe it is not as bad as they say, and we are currently "just" in the Supercycle Wave 2.
Before us would be the longest Wave 3. Hopefully that's true. I can dream, can't I? ;-)
DJIA 90-year pitchforkDrawing a line from the 1929 top through the 2000 top, the two great bubbles of the last 100 years is surprisingly consistent with the lower line when viewed on a log scale, which is the only scale that makes sense for long-term charts. It is then not hard to find events which caused the market to touch the edges of the pitchfork.
A Larger Correction Might Be Underway for VALEThe Cycle Wave 5 top (and Supercycle Wave 1 top) was most probably on the week of the 14th of May 2018 (please reffer to related idea).
NYSE:VALE now seems to be on an Intermediate Wave C which is part of the Cycle Wave A down.
If this count is correct we should still expect Intermediate waves B and C.
Only after Cycle Wave C, the last part of Supercycle Wave 2, should we see the hallowed Supercycle Wave 3. \o/
Best idea for now is to step aside from the stock and wait for signs Supercycle Wave 3 is around the corner...
Bitcoin Macro SuperCycle AnalysisAnalysis of the Bitcoin's Macro SuperCycle reveals familiar fractal patterns and our current position in the grand scheme of things. BTW, here's how some analysts come up with those crazy unrealistic price targets.
1. Note some fib relationships in SuperCycle Wave (1), apparently:
wave 3 (circle) = 50.618 (!) of wave 1 (circle) (green fibos);
wave (5) = 20.618 (!) of (wave (1) + wave (3)) (blue fibos) (coincides with the target for wave 3 circle)
wave 5 (circle) = 4.618 of (wave 1 (circle) + wave 3 (circle)) - you can estimate wave 5 based on wave 1 + wave 3 total length (violet fibos)
wave (3) is 2.618 of wave 1 (circle)
Project fibos from the end of wave (2) (or the abs bottom of correction), wave (4) and wave (4 circle) to confirms the targets for wave (5) and wave 3 (circle).
2. Establish some fractal relationships between cycles. There are lots of similarities in the current market and in the previous market cycle.
SuperCycle Wave (1) is a cyclical recursive fractal pattern that will reproduce itself within our current cycle of higher degree. i.e.
wave 1 (circle) => becomes a SuperCycle Wave (1)
wave 2 (circle) => SuperCycle Wave (2)
wave 3 (circle) => SuperCycle Wave (3) etc.
also, all corresponding subwaves within SuperCycle waves will repeat the same fractal pattern: wave 3 (circle) => SuperCycle subwave 3 (circle) etc
so that all fib relationships between subwaves in the new fractal will be preserved.
3. Measure and project the length of SuperCycle Wave (1) from the end of SuperCycle Wave (2) (or the abs bottom of SuperCycle correction) using 50.618 level to get the 60100-61800 target for SuperCycle Wave (3)
Projecting from the end of subwave (4) of SuperCycle Wave (3) also works.
4. In SuperCycle Wave (3) also measure and project the lengths of its subwave 1 (circle) and subwave (1) + subwave (3).
Project subwave 1 (circle) length (measured from the abs bottom of SuperCycle corection) from the end of subwave 2 (circle) using 50.618 level to get the 18300-19120 targets for subwave (5) and subwave 3 (circle).
Projecting from the end of subwave (4) also works.
Project subwave (1) + subwave (3) length from the end of subwave (4) using 4.618 level to get the target for subwave (5) and 20.618 level to get the target for Wave 5 (circle)
Note that subwave (3) is still 2.618 of subwave 1 (circle)
5. Having established the target for SuperCycle Wave (3), we can measure Wave (1) + Wave (3) and project from the end of SuperCycle Wave (4) using 4.618 level to get the 90200-92000 target for Wave (5).
6. Note that all corrections (red fibos) are between 0.786 and 0.886
Based on this analysis, we can conclude:
- we are now in SuperCycle Wave (3), subwave 4 (circle) and should correct more to 0.786 - 0.886 to fit the fractal pattern, ideally to the bottom of the new green channel
- after correction we will go up in subwave (5) of Wave (3) to 60100-61800
- we can reach the abs max of 90200-92000 in SuperCycle Wave (5) that will follow much much later
- we will remain in SuperCycle up trend until breaching 1170 level (end of SuperCycle Wave (1))
- the relationship between corrections subwave 4 (circle) and subwave 2 (circle) are similar to their corresponding waves in the source fractal pattern
ignoring the retracements one could say that it's time to go up.
Note that the new green channel has a lower angle now, so, expect much lower targets
Good Luck reaching those targets!
The Quiet Giant: Is A $192 Future Still In Play?IBM has a lot of understated, misunderstood, visionary initiatives under its belt starting last year. The name is no longer what it used to be, but IBM has pivoted before under Lou G. and it can definitely do so again if given time and proper execution. There is a small, but powerful minority that will always root for this stock and that will help propel it on any good momentum or guidance. If IBM continues to soak up and lean into the initiatives that it's begun to focus on with cloud, enterprise, AI, supercomputing and more relevant topics, then there is no doubt new management will be able to slowly, but surely transform this old behemoth into a powerful titan with new, relevant skin.
Short term, and perhaps for the year, a $175 price target is easily attainable with good, stable guidance and matched targets. With beats, positive market sentiment and sustained FY '18 guidance that has been reiterated already, hitting $180 is doable. Hitting that magical $192 level would be frosting and cherries on top of having already gotten back to 2015 levels. Expect IBM to be a serious contender at that point.
BTC Grand SupercycleSelf explanatory to the knowledgeable analyst, but if further clarification is necessary I refer you to my BTC $20000 - Full Analysis. Happy Trading!
EURUSDin long time frame divergence in rsi is coming and powerful resistance is near
H1 time frame analysed and short is better than buy
Supercycle of SPX500This analysis is strictly focused on Elliot wave theory and the current supercycle of the SAP500. From the way it appears on the charts, we are looking at the end of the 5th wave of the supercycle for the SAP500. By guidelines this could lead to a correction of between 40-50% over the course of the corrective wave pattern. As the chart attached shows we are looking at the end of the impulse waves in the next few months. With the arrival of the corrective waves we should see a price target near 1900USD. We will reach a market high in the second quarter of this year and then begin our descent.
Assumptions:
Wave three is the longest wave, therefore wave 1 length= wave 5 length
Elliot wave is a legitimate means of forecasting
Corrective waves will end near wave 4 low
the correction in February wasn't corrective wave A
I know anything
FTSE 100: UKX Inter-Generational High: Super Cycle only half wayFTSE 100 Inter - UKX - Inter-Generational Cycle High - Half-Way House
Nine years from high to low. Nine years from low to High on
FTSE in fact the secondary or final rally high set in week of
13.03 00 as Internet generation 1 peaked with Nasdaq and
techs' peak reached that week). Low reached March 9th 2009.
The next cycle date falls between Friday 2nd March and
Friday 9th March. If the major markets break below the lows
of last week we can therefore most likely expect a low to
form at this point in time - and if they can hold up today and
rally from here the next high is likely to be struck in the 5
trading days between March 2rd '18 and March 9 '18.
Whichever way it breaks from here should be worth following
in the near term - but start to look for a significant change in
trend in either event come 2nd March through 9th.
Looking even further out in time this peak now is likely only an inter-generational cycle high, marking the half-way point in the old 18 year generation cycle. The real grand super-cycle high (high to super-high) is not reached on this chart until March 1st 2027.
Time, as always, will tell.
In the meantime, there's a nearer term FTSE strategy outlined below.
Elliott Wave Projection For ConocoPhillipsWe have identified the Macro waves and pointed out the most recent minor waves. I believe we just completed Wave 3 of a Cycle Wave, as well as Wave 5 of a Primary Wave.
ConocoPhillips Is Set To Gain At Least 45%ConocoPhillips should rise at least 45% by the end of 2019 from Friday's close. Can you beat 45% gain in 20 months? In the short-term the stock should zig-zag to this point. Stock will most likely:
drop toward 55.93
rise toward 70.07
drop toward 59.75
rise toward 87.00 to close out its Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle and achieve at least a double top.
I will publish the full breakdown and track the process on my site
BTCUSD extended flatBitcoin is showing bearish divergence on several timeframes. The daily looks like a dead cat bounce due to the low volume, accompanied by high CMF divergence on 4h.
The 1.236 extension falls at 8426, which also is the present channel top. If and when the trendline is rejected, i expect a drop below 5k, breaking the parabolic support and completing cycle wave 3.
GOLD supercycle near finishing correction ... Part 3supercycle of gold and cycle on weekly chart,
use your indicators and two time frames for good entry level.
THE IDEA MAY HAVE RISK POSITION .
EURNZD Buy low Sell highEurnzd has been making a very nice supercycle structure and is almost finished and ready for a large long impulse to the upside.
Patience is key here, so watch it closely and don't forget about the bigger picture.
Daily MACD and RSI divergence with a 5 wave structure close to finishing
4 Hour MACD Divergence
1 Hour MACD Divergence with 5th wave stopping near -270 target.
15 Minute forecast for trade setups.
Use a tested strategy to enter.
