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Supercycle

McAfee was right about BTC $1 mil, but 1 year ahead. $16k AprilThis TA is based on a lot of trendlines by monthly and weekly, also by past cycles. This bullish summer indicates a strong demand for Bitcoin and which could be the reason we see a super cycle. I mean, the fundamentals are much better and the overall recognition is much bigger now. On top of that we have countries as Venezuela and Argentina fueling the fire for a way out. Hong Kong as well. Ethereum and XRP wont take as much dominance as last time. We do have twice the amount coins though. Will those eat of the BTC dominance pie, or just share the small piece with everyone else..? I know it is a TA with a lot of trendlines. I know them all. For me, I believe they put paint on a picture. We are exactly at the same place as we were back in December 2015. So from here to $16k I see 4 out of 5 green monthly candles to April. I am a beginner at this, but long term there is more room for being more accurate than short term. This is a updated version of my first TA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TomasPhilosophy
Bitcoin Plays Like a Beautiful MelodyErr herrm. I hate to boast, but you would too if you were this good. I hate to say it but Bitcoin is somewhat predictable. How I wish I wasn't in slumberland while it played out its beautiful melody. I would have loved to savour every moment of its graceful descent. If you are not already following me, then you would have missed out on my on-point analysis of its descending triangle trajectory. Well done if you are and if you took the time to read my ideas thoroughly and managed to find the link to that idea. Kudos to you if you took my advice. Bitcoin played right into the devil's lair and hit the mark spot on as predicted on the private chart I published for Purple Crypto Premium (above). It broke easily through the base of the triangle, shot right down into the price range surrounding the end of sub wave 4 of this super cycle and is now hanging around the 0.5 fibb (8500 for BTC/USD and 8578 for BTC/USDT), exactly as predicted. Papa Bear lets out a big growl. "Enough already", he says, crashing while testing the 1/2 trajectory on the Gann fan, then retreating back to safe haven. The ease with which it broke the triangle through to a previous fair value should open eyes, if it hasn't already. But is it over? I don't believe it is just yet. Where to from here? My analysis on Papa Bear Heading Down is still in play. For it to be able to start sub wave 4 of this super cycle, it needs to head back down to said levels in that analysis. It will (should) return to 7800 (USDT) at the least. Whether that happens gradually or not, only Big Brother knows. If I am to guess his desire to maintain a 1/1 Gann trajectory, it would be the former. The most positive thing you can take out of this is to learn who not to follow. That's right...all the amateurs who said the triangle would break up. Stay tuned... (PAPA BEAR'S FUTURE PROJECTION applies in its ensuing A-B-C corrective wave)
by PurpleCrypto
RECESSION IMPENDING?(PART2)FED RATES SUPERCYCLE|PREMIUM ANALYSISFED INTEREST RATES( FRED ) - Extension(PART 2) to the US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of August 2019 (9-10 Minute Read) Everyone complains about the FED rates. That's our only job, it seems . Judging by his tweets, no one has been more eager to express their dissatisfaction, than Pres. Trump (bit' of sarcasm) . This is Part 2 - of an extremely complex(Premium) cycle analysis . The purpose of this chart is to showcase the historical relationship between FED Rates and economic cycles . In order to understand this analysis; in depth historical knowledge of the FED's Monetary Policy is necessary (besides my personal need, of my work actually being understood properly). Now, let's start with a chronological setup(Blue #number labels) that will be used to analyse rates. The beginning of the Bullish Cone was the Impulsive Intermediate Wave 1(in the late 50's ). By the early 70's and the occurrence of the OPEC crisis ; a supercyclical Wave 1 and 2 were formed. Wave 2 gave the bottom support of the Bullish cone in FED interest rates. As it's labelled on the chart the importance of the bullish cone is that it signifies the Peak of Capitalism . The implications of this peak were a consumption driven economy, combined with excessive cycle volatility. At the same time this was the Fixed Incomes' Golden Age ; as practically every American individual was told that buying a house is the utmost important aim in life. Obviously at the time, this was quite logical, since home equity is an effective way to protect your wealth from inflation. The Fibonacci Circles used on the chart show the pattern of cycles that formed the Bullish Cone. Each end of a circle forms a trough and consequently a peak in a given cycle time span. What Changed ? - Our understanding of Monetary policy changed (Credit to Barro and Gordon,1983) . The early 80's were extremely turbulent years with immensely high inflation . The end result was an exit out of the old equilibrium and a break-off from the Bullish Cone, into a new Equilibrium . The trend that formed the New Equilibrium in general economic terms is referred to as the "Great Moderation" . This is why the chart is divided with a cross, centered around Q2,1984 that was the start of the "Great Moderation". The occurrence of this event can be observed in the clear difference with the synch of the sin-line with the different cycles between the 2 periods. The new equilibrium is extensively supported by the rise of Globalization . In effect this is the first part of this analysis. Part 2 of this analysis is, what started this idea with the downward trending wedge ( Pitchfork ) in interest rates since the "Great Moderation". This was my primary sketch from a week ago. Just so, I am not boring and do not repeat myself- I will not discuss the labels post 84' neither on the sketch or the chart. What is important in the current interest rate environment are the implications of the prolong duration of these extremely low rates . Hence, the chart is divided between 2% and below(RED) and above Green . The rationale behind this division, is that there are plenty of fundamental issues that appear if rates are lower than 2%(in addition to low growth/inflation). Unfortunately we've practically been in such environment for about 9 years now . Implications of this environment can be credited to James Bullards (2016) "Perma-Zero" paper. One of the major issues is the trade-off between debt and equity . In the current environment stocks on average are trading 14-17 x(times) their earnings (x17 P/E) . We have an enormous amount of laughable companies available to stay in business with continuously negative EPS . One example that I can think of is WeWork Ltd . (In order to spread awareness, I need your help on this one- comment as many companies that come on you mind that fit this description) . This is a healthy and necessary discussion to have . Low rates do stimulate innovation, but the inevitable cost is that due to competition- the majority of these startups become unproductive and hardly ever profitable.The best description that I think it fits these worthless capital soaking "Business Ideas" is to classify them as Malinvestments . Finally, what's the conclusion of this extensive FED rates analysis? - Borrowing Capital should have some baseline cost (2-4% would be quite an optimal range) . As discussed in Link #1 and Part 1 of this series based on the VIX that analysed the probability and timing of the next recession; - I t is nearing . Unfortunately, we will not have rate cuts as a tool to stimulate the markets. Whether it is obvious or not; we are quite overdue for a recession . This can also be observed from the sin-line at the bottom right corner; implying a bottom of the cycle in the next 2-3 years . Essentially, this is the reason- why I have dedicated much of my time to at least attempt to provide a series of ideas in my content, that include proper interpretation of the most crucial financial and economic factors . This idea concludes the extension to the SPX Sector series. Hope you enjoyed it and found it useful. |Step_Ahead_oftheMarket| >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! I do realize that my charts are quite hard to be understood, mostly because they are labelled to the smallest and extremest of details. If there are any poor understandings of the labels, I'd be able to answer any additional questions in the comments. {Make sure to check out my previous ideas and my series on US( SPX ) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} 1. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index 2. Series Finale ; Episode 11: US Utilities( XLU ) 3. SPX : Elliott Wave Analysis of the current Cycle Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copy-right option, but it is what it is.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
4
Ameican Stock Market Grand Supercyle, 9 Waves from 1789 to 2200s Unfortunately Tradingview doesn't have the complete historical chart of American stock market dating back to the 1830s or even 1790s, the age of Philadelphia "Board of Brokers". I'll try to explain briefly here: www.chartertrust.com 1790s to 1835: 1st Wave 1835 to 1842: 2nd Wave 1842 to 1929: 3rd Wave 1929 to 1932: 4th Wave Now is the important part: 1932 to now and the next 1-2 centuries: the GIGANTIC EXTENDED 5th Wave, which is comprised of 5 major waves, each similar in length to the previous 4 Waves. Therefore the gigantic bullish run from 18th century to 23rd century should be divided into 9 Waves, not just 5 Waves. Some people have worried that 2000 is the end of Wave 5 of Wave 5, possibly leading to unprecedented crashes which would never be regained in a couple of centuries, comparable to the Dark Ages after the collapse of Roman Empire. History proved them wrong, the only viable explanation is that this Wave 5 is super extended, and the Grand Supercycle starting in 18th century is better described as a 9 Wave structure. Therefore: 1932 to 2000: 5th Wave 2000 to 2009: 6th Wave correction 2009 to 2070s or 2090s: 7th Wave Late 21st century: 8th Wave correction Late 21st century to 2100s or 2200s: Final 9th Wave, with crazy inflation to pay for the expanding American Empire's always expanding bureaucracy, like what the Roman Emperors did. I put the Final end in the 2200s, assuming the future American Empire would have a similar lifespan to the ancient Roman Empire. If so, the American Empire would have its 3rd Century Crisis in the 2200s. Of course, with the modern society being much faster in many aspects, the future American Empire might start having big trouble earlier, possibly in the 2100s. I have to say this is not entirely fantasy, considering the rise of Donald Trump, some of his supporters being from the neoreactionary movement, and some of those neoreactionary people considering military dictatorship in the Roman fashion as a favorable alternative to Democracy. Of course they will take a long time to hold more political power, therefore I say the USA might only become a true caesarist or neoreactionary Empire in the end of 21st century, or the beginning of 22nd century, annexing Canada, Australia, the UK and some other countries. Back to the smaller picture, DJI has finished its Wave 4 correction of the Wave I of the 7th Wave, 50000 in 2022 or 2023 is a reasonable target for Wave 5 of Wave I. I put the end of Wave I at 2022 or 2023 according to Wave theory, and also the demographic cycle of USA. With the ever diminishing American birth rate and tightening of immigration intake and unfavorable trade conditions and the Artificial Intelligence bubble, Wave II might be some huge crashes in 2023 and 2024. I will elaborate more on this in the next article.
DJ:DJILong
by MarcusAu
SP500 super cycles: Yearly picture not in favor of crashHere is an interesting analysis of the yearly picture on the SP500. Contrary to shorter timeframes, where the weekly and monthly show that we could have quite a stockmarket correction this year, the yearly picture looks much more bullish. If we look at the past very long bullmarkets, we can see that there is a strong fractal similarity of the phase 2000-2008 and 1929 to 1945. It seems that this time, the recovery is faster, and the market wants to start the next long bullrun. If it is similar to back then, we could see a very long bullrun until 2030, where we'd see a 2 year bearmarket interruption, then another 25+ year bullrun. I know it sounds crazy, but this is just a fractal idea. There is of course not guarantee that it will play out like this. Other similarities: 1.Widening bollinger band in yearly, like at the beginning of last bullruns. 2. Stoch RSI on overbought, could stay there until end of 2020s, if similar to last pattern.
SP:SPX
by SebastianofMoon
22
A Larger Correction Might Be Underway for VALEThe Cycle Wave 5 top (and Supercycle Wave 1 top) was most probably on the week of the 14th of May 2018 (please reffer to related idea). NYSE:VALE now seems to be on an Intermediate Wave C which is part of the Cycle Wave A down. If this count is correct we should still expect Intermediate waves B and C. Only after Cycle Wave C, the last part of Supercycle Wave 2, should we see the hallowed Supercycle Wave 3. \o/ Best idea for now is to step aside from the stock and wait for signs Supercycle Wave 3 is around the corner...
NYSE:VALE
by geraldelli
Bitcoin Macro SuperCycle AnalysisAnalysis of the Bitcoin's Macro SuperCycle reveals familiar fractal patterns and our current position in the grand scheme of things. BTW, here's how some analysts come up with those crazy unrealistic price targets. 1. Note some fib relationships in SuperCycle Wave (1), apparently: wave 3 (circle) = 50.618 (!) of wave 1 (circle) (green fibos); wave (5) = 20.618 (!) of (wave (1) + wave (3)) (blue fibos) (coincides with the target for wave 3 circle) wave 5 (circle) = 4.618 of (wave 1 (circle) + wave 3 (circle)) - you can estimate wave 5 based on wave 1 + wave 3 total length (violet fibos) wave (3) is 2.618 of wave 1 (circle) Project fibos from the end of wave (2) (or the abs bottom of correction), wave (4) and wave (4 circle) to confirms the targets for wave (5) and wave 3 (circle). 2. Establish some fractal relationships between cycles. There are lots of similarities in the current market and in the previous market cycle. SuperCycle Wave (1) is a cyclical recursive fractal pattern that will reproduce itself within our current cycle of higher degree. i.e. wave 1 (circle) => becomes a SuperCycle Wave (1) wave 2 (circle) => SuperCycle Wave (2) wave 3 (circle) => SuperCycle Wave (3) etc. also, all corresponding subwaves within SuperCycle waves will repeat the same fractal pattern: wave 3 (circle) => SuperCycle subwave 3 (circle) etc so that all fib relationships between subwaves in the new fractal will be preserved. 3. Measure and project the length of SuperCycle Wave (1) from the end of SuperCycle Wave (2) (or the abs bottom of SuperCycle correction) using 50.618 level to get the 60100-61800 target for SuperCycle Wave (3) Projecting from the end of subwave (4) of SuperCycle Wave (3) also works. 4. In SuperCycle Wave (3) also measure and project the lengths of its subwave 1 (circle) and subwave (1) + subwave (3). Project subwave 1 (circle) length (measured from the abs bottom of SuperCycle corection) from the end of subwave 2 (circle) using 50.618 level to get the 18300-19120 targets for subwave (5) and subwave 3 (circle). Projecting from the end of subwave (4) also works. Project subwave (1) + subwave (3) length from the end of subwave (4) using 4.618 level to get the target for subwave (5) and 20.618 level to get the target for Wave 5 (circle) Note that subwave (3) is still 2.618 of subwave 1 (circle) 5. Having established the target for SuperCycle Wave (3), we can measure Wave (1) + Wave (3) and project from the end of SuperCycle Wave (4) using 4.618 level to get the 90200-92000 target for Wave (5). 6. Note that all corrections (red fibos) are between 0.786 and 0.886 Based on this analysis, we can conclude: - we are now in SuperCycle Wave (3), subwave 4 (circle) and should correct more to 0.786 - 0.886 to fit the fractal pattern, ideally to the bottom of the new green channel - after correction we will go up in subwave (5) of Wave (3) to 60100-61800 - we can reach the abs max of 90200-92000 in SuperCycle Wave (5) that will follow much much later - we will remain in SuperCycle up trend until breaching 1170 level (end of SuperCycle Wave (1)) - the relationship between corrections subwave 4 (circle) and subwave 2 (circle) are similar to their corresponding waves in the source fractal pattern ignoring the retracements one could say that it's time to go up. Note that the new green channel has a lower angle now, so, expect much lower targets Good Luck reaching those targets!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RagingRocketBull
8
The Quiet Giant: Is A $192 Future Still In Play?IBM has a lot of understated, misunderstood, visionary initiatives under its belt starting last year. The name is no longer what it used to be, but IBM has pivoted before under Lou G. and it can definitely do so again if given time and proper execution. There is a small, but powerful minority that will always root for this stock and that will help propel it on any good momentum or guidance. If IBM continues to soak up and lean into the initiatives that it's begun to focus on with cloud, enterprise, AI, supercomputing and more relevant topics, then there is no doubt new management will be able to slowly, but surely transform this old behemoth into a powerful titan with new, relevant skin. Short term, and perhaps for the year, a $175 price target is easily attainable with good, stable guidance and matched targets. With beats, positive market sentiment and sustained FY '18 guidance that has been reiterated already, hitting $180 is doable. Hitting that magical $192 level would be frosting and cherries on top of having already gotten back to 2015 levels. Expect IBM to be a serious contender at that point.
NYSE:IBMLong
by N3utra
Supercycle of SPX500This analysis is strictly focused on Elliot wave theory and the current supercycle of the SAP500. From the way it appears on the charts, we are looking at the end of the 5th wave of the supercycle for the SAP500. By guidelines this could lead to a correction of between 40-50% over the course of the corrective wave pattern. As the chart attached shows we are looking at the end of the impulse waves in the next few months. With the arrival of the corrective waves we should see a price target near 1900USD. We will reach a market high in the second quarter of this year and then begin our descent. Assumptions: Wave three is the longest wave, therefore wave 1 length= wave 5 length Elliot wave is a legitimate means of forecasting Corrective waves will end near wave 4 low the correction in February wasn't corrective wave A I know anything
SP:SPXShort
by scotch321
2
FTSE 100: UKX Inter-Generational High: Super Cycle only half wayFTSE 100 Inter - UKX - Inter-Generational Cycle High - Half-Way House Nine years from high to low. Nine years from low to High on FTSE in fact the secondary or final rally high set in week of 13.03 00 as Internet generation 1 peaked with Nasdaq and techs' peak reached that week). Low reached March 9th 2009. The next cycle date falls between Friday 2nd March and Friday 9th March. If the major markets break below the lows of last week we can therefore most likely expect a low to form at this point in time - and if they can hold up today and rally from here the next high is likely to be struck in the 5 trading days between March 2rd '18 and March 9 '18. Whichever way it breaks from here should be worth following in the near term - but start to look for a significant change in trend in either event come 2nd March through 9th. Looking even further out in time this peak now is likely only an inter-generational cycle high, marking the half-way point in the old 18 year generation cycle. The real grand super-cycle high (high to super-high) is not reached on this chart until March 1st 2027. Time, as always, will tell. In the meantime, there's a nearer term FTSE strategy outlined below.
TVC:UKX
by sumastardon