Alikze »» BITCOIN | Wave 3 of 3 bullish super cycle scenarioAccording to the previous analysis regarding Bitcoin, it is moving in a long-term ascending channel in the monthly time frame.
💎 Currently, according to the type of behavior and movement structure, it is in wave 3 of 3 super cycles.
💎 But since 2018, after a movement cycle and a correction in the form of a three-wave to the bottom of the channel in the range of $16,000, this correction ended.
💎 After that, it started another kinetic wave, which ended in the support range of the green box of its corrective wave 2, and is currently in wave 3, which overlaps with 100% Fibo of the previous wave, which is the range of $78,000.
💎 If this current wave 4 correction wave has started, it can be reviewed according to the analysis of the previous post ( here ), which you can follow its updates by referring to that post, at the same time, this wave should not enter the territory of wave 1. The chart is specified. In that case, the post should be updated and the scenario should be checked instead.
💎 But in its super cycle, as mentioned, this wave is in wave 3 of 3, which will have the ability to reach the red box numbers of the specified supply limit and up to 1.618 fibo to the range of $369,000.
💎 Going through a full cycle of 5 waves will have the ability to reach the range of $2,700,000. Please note that these numbers are in the monthly time frame and it is natural that the time to reach these goals will certainly require more time, which should be reviewed and updated step by step.
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Supercyclewave3
Nobody saw that comingIn the coming months, I expect the following catalysts
1. Oil coming down, already there are discussions about removing Russia from OPEC
2. 10 Yr coming down, currently forming an H&S
3. FED adopt a more conservative strategy for interest rates going into 2023
4. Massive short squeeze on tech, High short interest rate there!
5. Rotation from oil to tech
45% are comparing this to .com and the other 45% to 08. Guess what the market likes to do...
This is not investment advice, do your own research!!!
Look First / Then Leap
WE WISH YOU A MERRY BITMAS... AND I EXPLAIN WHY!Dear Traders and Hopeaholics alike,
3 DAYS... YES, 3 DAYS before the March 2020 low...
I told you of this CRAZY BULL RUN we were about to experience. I am the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short), and they laughed and laughed... And then... there were BEAR TEARS.
As always... I'd like to remind you, so far my long-term charts are all VERY ACCURATE... So while many of you are waiting to BUY the 42K region, I am going to tell you why, you might just want to start buying now.
I want you all to view this chart, and the LONG WICK... now as a trader, you know a long wick like this may throw us off our BULL RUN GOALS... our dream of 100K BTC may be out of reach... but you're in luck, whales and exchanges have seen this and KNOW they need to cover the wick with a candle body... for LONG TERM targets to be achieved this most EPIC 12month chart MUST complete with a SOLID candle and maybe just a small wick, taking the new year into continued faith and prosperity!
Take a look at this next pitch-fork chart and the corrective RUNNING FLAT we have formed, now in a BULL RUN our waves truncate making patterns more difficult to determine... but as far as I can see we are moving perfectly within Elliott Wave rules.
The pattern shown on the main chart here shows an impulse wave and the start of the next wave higher... $93,177 is the target (just shy of 100K) reason being, this will hit the market again in the GREED Department, over-leveraged traders anticipating 100K... DENIED! This pattern below, is an extended wave correction taking BTC to the high and closing the candle to entice the BEARS to SHORT believing we have reached resistance and stuck with too much sell pressure ONLY to blast through after this completion, AND MAX PAIN for LONGS... AND SHORTS.
These wave patterns are still viable to take BITCOIN to my previous prediction of $142,000 for the Greater 3rd Wave Pattern shown.
BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE EXPLAINED
For those that are new to my charts, here is the explanation of why I think this is valid and continues to be so.
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One day... a long long time ago in a faraway land (Australia) there was a man who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto... now he invented Bitcoin, and gave it a limited supply, of 21million coins, to date about 18.5million have been mined... It is estimated one-third of those mined coins are forever out of circulation, being forgotten about, lost wallets or passwords... but cannot be accessed ever again... There is also increased mining difficulty.
This process has adapted overtime...
On launch, miners received 50 BTC
in 2012 it halved to 25 BTC
then 2016 again halving to 12.5 BTC
and last year on 11th May 2020 we are now down to a mere 6.25BTC (as of today's writing this that is approximately $325,000.00 USD)
Bitcoin's inflation rate is lowered effectively at the 4year mark, and the algorithmic math difficulty increased, making it harder for the computers to "guess" or "crack" 64-digit hexadecimal number (a "hash") this can take trillions of attempts. With this, mining difficulty increased, it is estimated the last BITCOIN may not be mined until 2140 long after we have all left this Earth or if the network no longer continues to exist.
Post 21 million coins mined - Bitcoin is designed to function as a closed market/economy, with transaction fees similar to taxes. At some stage for long-term survival, these fees will need to be capped or managed.
So where is all this going you may ask...
What Satoshi Nakamoto failed to take into consideration in this model, was SUPPLY AND DEMAND, in a closed market when demand is high and supply is limited, PRICE can increase in large increments, causing the price to rise in significant amounts in short periods. As we are seeing on the chart now.
Over the next few months more and more you will hear, the term SUPER CYCLE, which I explain here. The total crypto market cap
IS CRYPTOCURRENCY & BITCOIN ENTERING A SUPERCYCLE?
it is an Elliott Wave term that explains the strong demand and growth within a market in a short period of time.
Why BITCOIN is not a PONZI is the strong demand within the market currently, and with demand we achieve growth.
It is explained from an except www.britannica.com
Supply and demand, in economics, is the relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market. The resulting price is referred to as the equilibrium price and represents an agreement between producers and consumers of the good. In equilibrium, the quantity of a good supplied by producers equals the quantity demanded by consumers.
So in essence when the demand curve grows (the parabola is shown on the chart) the price grows with this, sometimes breaking away with increased high demand. These regions will always be tested (a correction) and then usually continue higher. It is only when this curve is broken the demand is waining that supply becomes abundant, hence causing the price to decrease.
In summary, as long as DEMAND is high and increasing, and Bitcoin SUPPLY which we know is fixed or limited, the price will continue to grow.
Again a more serious post from me, just alerting you to the fact CRYPTOCURRENCY is here to stay, and this is only the beginning!
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When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!
SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!!
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If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a setup to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns.
So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED!
And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management!
REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION
(minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<3 Lisa
DISCLAIMER:
The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons...
PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
VALE3: Long on Elliott Wave (III)/Compra por Onda (III)VALE3 has just confirmed its start of a WAVE (III) in SuperCycle degree. We should see a strong push to the upside in the coming months and quarters, with the 1.618 expansion at R$ 415.
The whole advance from Early 2016 until the just broken out top "V" shows a clear 5 wave pattern, and that was labeled in Cycle degree as WAVE (I). The correction that ensued up till the corona virus/Oil glut - Russia vs. Saudis - bear market was labeled as a corrective WAVE (II).
VALE3 acaba de confirmar o início de uma ONDA (III) de grau SuperCíclico. Devemos observar uma força vigorosa empurrando os preços para cima nos meses e trimestres a seguir, com a expansão de fibo batendo em R$ 415.
A subida desde o começo de 2016 até o topo recém rompido "V", revela um padrão de 5 ondas, que foi rotulado a nível cíclico como ONDA (I).
A correção que se deu até uns meses atrás com o Corona-Virus/Crise do Petróleo "Russia-Arábia Saudita" foi rotulada como ONDA (II).