STI downtrend intact. Tries to stay above 2500. 031020.The STI has tried multiple times to hold the 2500 level in the last trading week.
A break and hold above 2510 will relieve the selling pressure.
A range within the downtrend has develop between 2450 and 2510 in the ST
A test of 2450 is still imminent.
Supertrend
STI downtrend struggles to break above 2500The STI is into its downtrend for 15th weeks now since the 24th of July 2020.
2500 level needs to be reclaimed and a close above 2520 will negate the correction.
The downside target of 2200 in the MT/LT remains a viable target if a sustained recovery above 2520 and 2551 fails to materialize.
SPX pivot at 3344 to pause Correction The SPX attempts to make a break above 3344 to pause the recent 10% correction from its recent highs of 3591 early Sep.
A close above 3344 on the 4hr charts will confirm the end of the correction and may test 3392 to resume the uptrend in the M/L term timeframes
Alternative, a sustained close below 3344 will retest the lows of 3211.
TAAT : Trading IPOsTAAT IPOed on the Canadian Stock exchange on the 24th of June this year. It had returned 39% over the past 3 months over some optimism on its E-cigarettes business. Vanguard Subscribers were asking how to trade this particular stock.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis show an UPTREND in all timeframes from the 4hr to the Monthly
Price trades above the Supertrend line on all time frames : UPTREND
Price is UPTREND above the Ichimoku Cloud SSSA/B lines
Technique : Aggressives buy when price retreats and bounces as close to the Supertrend line as possible and place stop loss on the SSSA line . Once price clears the Supertrend line comfortably, raise your stop loss to the Supertrend line.
Conservatives buy when price breaks through SSSB line and re-emerges from below to above the SSSA line. Buy on the first candlestick close ABOVE the SSSA line.
Target Price/EXIT : Sell only when your stop loss is hit = Supertrend is violated. If your initial trade had been successful, a raise of your stop loss from the SSSA line to your Supertrend Line would have given you a risk free trade covering your commission and cost of your trade.
SPX correction intensifies in the short termA close at 3329 in the SPX sits exactly on the SSSA line of the day ichimoku cloud.
A test of the base of the cloud is imminent. The baseline forms support for now. The Teken level on the weekly charts is at 3350, this has been violated giving way to more weakness.
Bottomline: A resumption in the uptrend must see a bounce from Friday's close at 3329 to 3375 for the MT/LT uptrend to resume. A break and hold below the SSSB line on the Day charts may signal a corrective move to 2973, The Supertrend line on the weekly.
STI OUTLOOK 140920. weakness persistsThe STI is struggling to hold on to 2500. All indicators are on a downtrend.
To negate short term weakness, the STI must close back above 2540 - 2586 and hold.
The Medium and Long term prospects are weak and in a persistent downtrend.
2200 is the next target is weakness persists in the MT.
SPX UPDATE 140920 : SHORT TERM WEAKNESSShort term weakness on the SPX since the short signal on the 030920 continues to the new trading week of 150920 spanning 14 days. Short term support is now between 3150 - 3280.
A break of 3150 will see a corrective retreat on the weekly charts to 2973.
Alternatively, a break and hold above 3443 will resume the uptrend of the SPX on all time frames.
Caution : STI closes below 3500.The STI is in its 8th month of correction since February 2020. The technical picture has worsened in the trading week starting 070920. My previous post on the 6th of Sep highlighted the technical weakness on all time frames. A worst case scenario of a test of 3200. It would be prudent for long only traders to lighten exposure for the last quarter of 2020.
For portfolio investors, they will be opportunities to look for trading ideas that I have and will continue to post as a trading idea.
For investors looking at buying on the dip, look for companies that have remained on an uptrend on the monthly charts that have held technically above the Ichimoku Cloud SSSA line.
SPX REBOUNDS TO TEST 3475The SPX has Rebound of its intraday lows of the week on the 9th of Sep to the Kijun Sen on the 4hr charts at 3475.
This is a 50% retracement based on Ichimoku cloud indicators. Pivot will be at 3400. A close and hold above 3400 will test the Supertrend level at 3475 which is also above the SSSA line. A break below the pivot will see the retest of the week's corrective lows. The SPX is still on a medium term uptrend on the Medium and Long Term charts. A close a hold above 3475 into the purple trading area will resume the longer term uptrend.
SuperTrail Indicator Video / Trailing Stop LossWas just playing around with the replay function in Trading View and thought I'd share this to show how the SuperTrail indicator worked on a couple of different stocks.
The SuperTrail is basically a modified SuperTrend but instead uses a percentage to allow you to manually set the trail level for individual stocks. Some need a wider trail, some a smaller one. You might set a trail based on the last months range, or the last 3 months. Totally up to you and the stock itself. The idea is to find what I call the natural range of a stock based on its past behaviour and hope that the stock maintains this range into the future. You can of course simply adjust it from time to time as the stock and the market goes through different behaviours (eg bull or bear), reacting to good or bad company news etc.
I use the percentage value that I come up with to set as my stop loss / trailing stop with my broker. This way if the stock drops below the trail value (which automatically moves up as the stock price moves up, but never down if the stock goes down), the stock will automatically sell and I will hopefully bank any profits. Works best of course with trending stocks. You could use the buy signal to go long and the sell signal to short. Main thing for me is I don't have to sit and watch the market and worry how my shares are going. If one is starting to go the wrong way, I automatically get out. Completely up to you how you use it. It is a very simple system :)
If you want to see more examples, just have a look at my profile, and if you would like access to the script, just message me and I'll send you the details.
Colored Directional Movement IndexWhat Is the Colored Directional Movement Index (CDMI)?
The Directional Movement Index, or DMI, is an indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder that identifies the direction of the price movements and the trend strength. DMI is a collection of three separate indicators (ADX, +DI, -DI) combined into one
ADX's purposes is to define whether or not there is a trend present and the other two indicators ( +DI and -DI ) serve the purpose of determining trend direction. By combining all three, a technical analyst has a way of determining and measuring a trend's strength as well as its direction
What to look for :
Trend Strength - Analyzing trend strength is the most basic use for the DMI.
Crosses : When +DI is above -DI, there is more upward pressure than downward pressure in the price. If -DI is above +DI, then there is more downward pressure in the price
DMI can provide quality information and even trading signals, but it is not an easy indicator to master and not easy to read within multiple lines
Here comes Colored Directional Movement Index (CDMI)
CDMI is still the same indicator but visualized on the top of the price chart with single line of coloured triangles. CDMI requires additional setting to be provided by user which are Strong Trend and Week Trend threshold levels. Wilder believed that a DMI reading above 25 indicated a strong trend, while a reading below 20 indicated a weak or non-existent trend. Hence the default values for strong trend is set to 25 and week trend set to 17
How to read CDMI , it is simply to read colours and shapes of the triangles
Tringle Shapes indicates the direction of the move and are calculated by comparing the values of +DI and -DI
triangle up shape when +DI is above -DI (+DI > -DI)
triangle down shape when +DI is below -DI (+DI < -DI)
Triangle Colours, there are four main colours:
Strong Bullish : Green is printed when ADX value is bigger than the Strong Trend Threshold +DI is above -DI (ADX > StrongThesh and +DI > -DI)
Strong Bearish : Red is printed when ADX value is bigger than the Strong Trend Threshold +DI is below -DI (ADX > StrongThesh and +DI < -DI)
Weak Trend : Black is printed when ADX value is lower than the Strong Trend Threshold and bigger than Week Trend Threshold ( ADX > WeekThesh and ADX < StrongThesh)
Even Weaker Trend : Yellow is printed when ADX value is lower than the Week Trend Threshold ( ADX < WeekThesh)
Additionally, Intensity changes of colours (between light and dark) will allow you to follow how ADX value is changing comparing it to its previous values.
If current value of ADX is bigger than the previous value of ADX a dark colour will be printed, otherwise when ADX value decrease a lighter colour will be printed
Please check links below for different usages of CDMI
Hope you enjoy this post and find it useful
GBPUSD Potential BUYExpecting price to retrace to the golden zone. Once price reaches the golden zone (50-60% Fib) I will look for a long position expecting price to reach Resistance Zone 1.26710. If price continues passed golden zone I will look for a short position. At that point I will look for price to reach Support Zone 1.23407.
Bitcoin to decide directionColored DMI indicates no stenght at the major historical support trendl line (orange line), being tested frequantly since May 07 and few times in the past.
PS : Colored DMI - customized interpratation of ADX +DI-DI, or shortly DMI
Momentum is squuezed
When looking of the formations it is defenetly rising wedge (purple lines), a sign for down trend ,
The price action is still within a channel (linear scale, could be useful for short term analysis. For this case the log scale shows channel broken but the price action does not support the same idea, hence assuming the linear scale and channel still not broken)
Ichimoku colored SuperTrend indicates range where the price action is above Kumo Cloud and TenkenSen line above KujinSen
My mid term bias will be for long expecially if the historical trend line is brokken (short term : may be some down movement or range for a while)
Some similarity can be observed when comparing with Stellar and Stellar moved above having nearly the same view of chart patterns
BITCOIN - Ascending Channel - SuperTrend reversal - 17% targetMy test bot triggered a buy signal about one hour ago on Bitcoin: BINANCE:BTCUSDT
It is good to see that we are in an Ascending Channel
The SuperTrend reversed, the take profit target is 17%, which has been a good number in the backtests I made.
The trade could have been filtered out by the ADX filter I included in the strategy but it was not, meaning we are in a trending market.
The SuperTrend will be used as a natural trailing stop loss, securing our trades.
Stay tuned!
Backtest below.
Introduction to the BEST Trade ManagerHello traders
Let me highlight what the BEST Trade Manager can do for you.
The Trade Manager adds another layer to your own systems, enabling custom user-defined stop-loss/take-profits and real-time analysis with risk-to-reward ratios.
We made it as such the visual rendering is also very nice on mobile devices.
Reviewing:
- How to connect your own indicator(s)
- How to read the graphical elements
- The 8 Stop-Loss options
- The 4 Take-profit options
- The alerts and dynamic alerts for trading automation
Links are in my signature for more information about it
Wishing you all the BEST for your trading using it.
Dave