SUPN going upWhat used to be a resistance now a support.
Plus an inverse head & shoulders.
Plus positive news: “Supernus said that a Phase 3 trial 'met the primary endpoint ... compared to placebo in improving the symptoms of ADHD.'"
Going long anticipating 30’s where MA200 is and then maybe higher.
With tight stop-loss just behind the support.
SUPN
SUPN - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about SUPN
We observe a D1, some important points. The details are highlighted above.
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SUPN EarningsLooks like a bull flag and possible gap fill. If earnings are decent, it should have no problems filling it since >100% of float is owned by institutional holders. It's trading on borrowed shares.
Small play using my WP profits. March 37 calls. Remember, earnings are always a crap shoot.
SUPN - Short Put Spread Rolled to Dec 21This is a trade continuation from 8/2.
8/2 Initial trade:
Sold 8/17 $55 Call @ 1.94
Sold 8/17 $50/45 Put Spread @ .56
Total Credit 2.50 (Net 243.50 per contract)
8/9 Rolled Put spread to September:
Rolled 8/17 $50/45 Put spread to 9/21 $50/45 Put Spread for no cost
8/17 $55 Call expired OTM
9/18 Rolled Put Spread to October:
Rolled 9/21 $50/45 Put spread to 10/19 $50/41 for .65 Credit
Total credit 3.15 (Net $301.52), Max loss increased from $256.50 to $598.48
10/12 Rolled October $50/41 Put Spread to November $50/41 Put Spread for .65 credit (net $58.02)
Total net credit = $359.54; Adjusted max loss = 540.46
10/31 Rolled October $50/41 put spread to December $50/41 Put spread for .60 credit (net 53.02)
Total net credit = $412.56; adjusted max loss = 487.44
SUPN - Collar for protectionBought SUPN at $5.65 as an investment, not a trade. In the past I have used collars to provide downside protection. Last collar expired last December. Collars should only be used in limited situation and timing them correctly is very important. It's only truly in hindsight that you can determine if the collar was a good decision. Last two collars worked out well. They cost me nothing and I didn't need to use them.
I felt the urge to put a new collar in place. Look at the wedge patterns on the chart (2 past and possible current formation). Could be a potential move down.
My limited order was executed. Sold a Sept $37 Call and bought the December $26 Put for .25 net credit. That's a pretty good credit especially considering SUPN would need more than 11% growth from current price for the Call to be in the money and expires 3 months before the Put protection.
If SUPN grows 20% in the next few months, I won't be looking at this decision so favorably.
Previous Collar - Expired in December 2016
Growth since last purchase
SUPN- Potential short SUPN seems breaking down from a long upward channel. Money-flow is showing strong divergence. If it breaks down it has huge downward potential. However before we get into the position we like to see a confirmed breakdown.
You can check our detailed analysis on SUPN in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span: 9:30"
Trade status: Watchlist
SUPN - Expect further downward pressure before continuing higherSUPN
LH/LL since peaking at 23.30. From the chart, I don't see any evidence indicating this pattern has changed. There is convergence on the RSI. For now, I expect this pattern to continue.
I have been long since 3/21/2013. My average share price is $5.65. Hindsight...it would have been wise to have sold 1/2 of my position when price was over $20 at 300% gain.
I have a collar in place (insurance), but it is set to expire 1/15/16.
I like this stock long-term and do not plan on selling at this price. I am evaluating rolling my collar out further. I am also evaluating at what price i would consider adding to my position.
Unfortunately, this stock is NOT a good candidate to sell covered calls and I don't expect that to change anytime soon.