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Supply and Demand

THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Not bad play at all with the red boxes working well, KOG's bias of the day and the red box targets working well and of course the indicators and our trusted algo Excalibur guiding the way completing the move that we wanted downside. We then got a fantastic long from the bias level and red box activation up into where we are now. So, what now? We have resistance and a red box above which is broken suggesting we may see some more movement downside in the coming sessions. This would also align with the hunt and undercut low that can take place at this key level. We're a bit too low to short, so we'll either look for the break above 3375 to go higher, or, we'll wait lower for a potential long trade from the red box region. Immediate support here is 3360-5 and resistance 3375. Price: 3364 KOG’s Bias of the day: Bullish above 3350 with targets above 3358✅, 3365✅ and above that 3379✅ Bearish on break of 3350 with target below 3337 and below that 3330 RED BOXES: Break above 3365 for 3372✅, 3375✅, 3388 and 3406 in extension of the move Break below 3350 for 3335, 3330, 3326 and 3307 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
How to navigate the Amazonian Squeeze. AMZNHello I am the Cafe Trader. This week has been a deep dive on the MAG 7 and today AMZN is up next. We are going to look at long term and short term opportunities. We are near the All Time Highs, with one final Seller to get through before making the break. Today we tested to see if those sellers are there still (and indeed they are). Today was a key reaction, I'm going to give you the keys to profit. Long Term It's important to consider how aggressive you would like to be with pricing. This list of prices should align with your conviction with Amazon. Aggressive: $226 is where the current aggressive players are sitting. They are going to look to buy again at this level, although they should be the weakest of the buyers. Fair sentiment: 203-210 is where stronger buyers are sitting. I think this price is still realistic to get to. Conservative: 161 - 171 Is a great price, buyers have shown to buy this with extreme demand. Amazon at this price is a fantastic purchase, if you are holding from here or lower, congradulations. Short term Testing the supply and rejecting tells us that sellers are still really active in this zone. We will see how tomorrow closes, if we do not close in the supply zone, there is a good chance that net week will have some bearish winds and a great chance of testing the light demand at 226. this brings us to the two trading ideas. 1 Green line I think we will test those sellers by next week. and i think its very possible that we break trend and touch the light demand line. If its a slow drag down to the light demand, Shorts will have to cover as soon as any real demand shows up (Light Demand Line). Entry 226.50 Stop 221.50 Partial TP 233, or you can hold for a test of the highs (242 would suffice) 2 Red Line If we get a Hot reaction from the supply zone, or if we close below 233.50 tomorrow, Look for a retest and short entry off the supply zone. If the reaction starts to be slow (more than 5 days of red bars) it's likely this will turn into the green scenario. Entry 233.5 Stop 237 Partial TP 226.5 Full TP 218 That's all for AMZN Follow for more! Also comment if you would like me to chart a stock you are considering. @thecafetrader
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by thecafetrader
18
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for a price to attempt the higher level red box sitting around the 3370-75 region and if not breached, we felt an opportunity to short would be available from that region. We said if that failed and the move commenced, we would be looking at a complete correction of the move back down into the 3330-35 region, where we would then monitor price again in anticipation of a long from there or the extension level of 3310 which was also a red box short target (move complete). As you can see from the above, not only did we get that higher red box, we rejected, completed the move downside and then our traders managed to get that long trade all the way back up into the Excalibur target, red box targets and the hotspots shared in Camelot. A decent week again, not only on Gold but also the numerous other pairs we trade, share targets on and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we can expect more ranging price action, but due to the previous range from last week being so tight, it looks like we’ll see a breakout coming in the latter part of the week unless there is news to bring us unexpected volume. We have the key level below 3335-40 support and above that resistance and a red box sitting at 3375-80. This is the region that needs to watched for the break, and if broken we should hit the range high again at 3400-10. However, if rejected, we could again see this dip to attack that lower order region 3310-6 before attempting to recover. Last week we wanted to see that curveball and although we did see some aggressive price action, I think we will see something extreme for this week. It’s that lower level 3310-6 that is a key region for bulls, if broken we can see a complete flush in gold taking us down into the 3250’s before we start the summer run. That for us would be the ideal scenario going into the month end, but, we’ll play it how we see and as usual, we go level to level and update any changes as we go along. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3355, 3361, 3368, 3372 and above that 3385 Bearish below 3340 with targets below 3335, 3330, 3322, 3316, 3310 and below that 3304 RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3350 for 3355, 3361, 3367, 3375 and 3390 in extension of the move Break below 3340 for 3335, 3330, 3320, 3310 and 3306 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
40
Is Smart Money Selling Gold? A VSA LookHey Traders, Let's take a look at the Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The price made a strong run-up to a new high around $3,438, but the volume is telling us a story of potential weakness. Here’s a simple breakdown of what I'm seeing. The Trap at the Top (Signs of Weakness) Think of the market as being moved by "smart money" (professionals) and "herd money" (the crowd). Climax Volume: See that huge volume spike right at the peak on July 23rd? While it looks like strong buying, this is often a classic sign of a Buying Climax. This is where smart money starts selling their positions to the excited crowd who are buying at the top, fearing they'll miss out. No Real Buyers Left: After the peak, notice how the price tried to push higher a few times but on much lower volume? This is a "No Demand" signal. It’s like a car trying to rev its engine, but it's out of gas. It shows there isn't enough buying power to push the price any higher. Sellers Take Control: As the price started to fall from the top, look at the volume on the down bars. It got bigger. This tells us that supply (selling pressure) is now in control, and they are pushing the price down with force. Where Are We Now? The price has dropped and is now hovering around the $3,330 area. The volume has dried up for now, which means the market is taking a pause and deciding where to go next. What to Watch For Next Based on the VSA story, here are two possible scenarios: Scenario 1 (Bearish 📉): The weakness continues. If we see the price try to rally from here but the volume is very low, it would be another major red flag. It would suggest sellers are still in control, and we could see a break below the recent low of $3,320 for another leg down. Scenario 2 (Bullish 📈): This is a bear trap. For this to happen, we would need to see a strong sign of buying returning. For example, a sharp drop on massive volume that is quickly bought back up. This would signal that the sellers have been absorbed and smart money is starting to buy again. Conclusion: For now, the evidence points more towards weakness. The action at the top suggests that smart money was distributing (selling) their gold. Key Takeaway: Be cautious of any weak-looking bounces. The sellers appear to have the upper hand until we see a clear sign of strength with high buying volume. This is not financial advice. This is just my interpretation of the chart using VSA. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Good luck trading!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by bluewolf_trades
1
Two Trades to go Bullish on TSLAHello, I’m The Cafe Trader. We’ve been tracking the MAG 7, and Tesla is the next focus for our short-term options or swing trade strategy. I’m looking at two scenarios that are likely to play out with TSLA over the next few weeks. For fundamental and long-term analysis, check my other article on TradingView. ⸻ Even though we’re sitting near the middle, bulls have just pushed into a bearish liquidity level (marked “Bottom of Supply”). We don’t know how much supply is left here, but the fact that bulls are pressing in suggests the bears are losing steam. This doesn’t mean price won’t pull back—it just means bearish follow-through may be weaker. With that in mind, here are the two main scenarios: ⸻ 1. Green Arrow — Bullish Test of Sellers – Stock If bulls keep the pressure on, we may see a test of the “Big Sellers” zone. The reaction there will tell us a lot. If we see a sharp rejection (a quick tag followed by a flush) or a fake breakout that reverses, I’d approach longs more cautiously. However, an aggressive entry long around the “Top of Demand” (around $321) could make sense, especially considering how buyers have been stepping in. This setup is primed to retest highs. – Options Pricing will be key here—especially post-earnings (EOD). I’d look 2 weeks out. If you can snag a 335C for $5.00–$7.00, that’s solid. Target profit would be into the Big Sellers zone. If we get a strong move before then that nets 3R–5R, I’d take it. ⸻ 2. Red Arrow — Bearish Reaction + Big Buyer Support – Stock If earnings disappoint, we could see a shift in momentum. That said, big buyers should step in around $295. This is actually the more likely scenario in my view. From there, I’d look for a swing back up into the 330–350 range. We’ll need to see how sellers handle the drop—are they aggressive, or is it just a lack of buyer interest? Either way, this could align well with long-term buy zones. – Options On a flush to $295, I’d look for 3–5 day expiration calls around the 305 strike. @ a price between $1.50–$1.70 (look for 2-3R) After the bounce, I’d expect a pause or retest of the uptrend line. Then I’d look 2–3 weeks out for the 325C or 330C, ideally between $3.00–$5.00. I’ll keep an eye on option pricing and update if we reach that level. ⸻ That’s all for short-term TSLA. Follow for more charting and trade ideas. 📲 @thecafetrader
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by thecafetrader
12
XAUUSD Bearish from bearish ob need new breakdown from side line📊XAUUSD 1D Forecast Gold is currently showing bearish signs after reacting from the order block level at 3450. Now trading around 3355, which is near the sideways resistance zone. We're watching for confirmation before entering — targeting entry near 3350. 📌Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: 3355 (current price) Entry Zone: 3350 (with confirmation) Next Demand Zone: 3250 (major level) Support Level: 3180 Strategy: Waiting for a strong bearish 4H candle to confirm momentum. Only then we’ll consider short entries from 3350 zone. Patience is key. No confirmation = no trade. 📊 #XAUUSD #Gold
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by experttrader04
1
BTC DOMINANCE Update (1D)It seems that Bitcoin dominance may soon experience upward corrections, as it has broken through several support zones to the downside without any reaction and is now close to another support area. Usually, when the market maker pushes the price through multiple supports without a reaction, the price can retrace from a nearby support. The price may soon move to complete wave G. We have considered two different scenarios for the fluctuations of this index. However, note that this chart is a derivative chart, and the fluctuations may not follow the schematic exactly, but this analysis gives us a good view of the support and resistance zones and the probable path. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by behdark
2
XAUUSD bullish breakout from major supply zone retracement done📊XAUUSD Forecast – 1H Timeframe Gold has broken out above the major supply zone at 3375, showing strong bullish intent Price is now pulling back — retracement in progress back to the breakout level for a potential bullish continuation 📍 Key Zone to Watch: 3375 now acting as strong support — waiting for a bullish confirmation candle from this zone 🎯 Next Resistance / Target Levels: 🔹 3399 – minor resistance 🔹 3435 – key supply zone on watch 🧠Waiting patiently for confirmation before re-entering — structure still bullish on the 1H timeframe What’s your next move on Gold? Drop your thoughts below 👍 Like | 🔔 Follow | 💭 Comment for real-time trade ideas #xauusd #gold
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by experttrader04
7
Japanese Candlestick Cheat Sheet – Part Three- 3 candle patternsSo far in this series, we've broken down single candle formations ( Part 1 ) and explored double candle signals ( Part 2 ) — the kind of patterns that give you quick, often powerful hints about the market’s mood. But now it’s time to go a step further. 👉 In Part 3, we dive into triple candlestick formations — patterns that take more time to form, but often offer stronger confirmation and a more reliable narrative. They’re like reading three full sentences from the market instead of just one or two words. If you’re ready to spot momentum shifts (not noise), this lesson is for you. Let’s decode the story behind formations like Morning Star, Three White Soldiers, and so on. MORNING STAR Bias: Bullish What is the Morning Star pattern? The Morning Star pattern consists of a bearish candle, a small-bodied middle candle, and a bullish candle, forming at the end of a downtrend to signal potential reversal. This pattern reflects a shift from seller dominance to buyer strength, as the middle candle marks a pause before a reversal. The Morning Star is a reliable signal that buyer interest is reemerging. Understanding Morning Stars helps traders anticipate shifts in momentum, providing valuable entry points for new uptrends. Meaning: Found in downtrends; signals potential bullish reversal as buyers gain control, with strength confirmed by the third candle closing above the first. BULLISH ABANDONED BABY Bias: Bullish What is the Bullish Abandoned Baby pattern? The Bullish Abandoned Baby is a rare but powerful reversal pattern that consists of a bearish candle, a gapped doji, and a bullish candle. The middle doji reflects indecision, while the third bullish candle confirms the reversal. This pattern highlights a dramatic shift in sentiment, showing that buyers are prepared to take control. Recognizing the Bullish Abandoned Baby can offer traders insights into pivotal market shifts. Meaning: Appears in downtrends; suggests a strong bullish reversal, as the middle doji shows indecision, with confirmation by a strong bullish move. THREE WHITE SOLDIERS What is the Three White Soldiers pattern? The Three White Soldiers pattern consists of three consecutive bullish candles, each closing higher than the last, often appearing in downtrends to signal a potential bullish reversal. This pattern reflects sustained buying pressure, indicating that buyer sentiment is strong. Psychologically, it shows that buyers are steadily gaining confidence, pushing prices upward. For traders, Three White Soldiers provide a clear signal of momentum, ideal for capturing emerging trends. Meaning: Found in downtrends; signals potential trend reversal, showing sustained buying strength, often signaling the start of a bullish trend. MORNING DOJI STAR What is the Morning Doji Star pattern? The Morning Doji Star pattern is similar to the Morning Star, but with a doji as the middle candle, indicating greater indecision before a reversal. This pattern consists of a bearish candle, a doji, and a bullish candle, highlighting a transition from bearish to bullish sentiment. The doji reflects a moment when market sentiment is balanced, but the third candle confirms a bullish shift. Interpreting Morning Doji Stars can help traders identify turning points in downtrends, providing valuable entry opportunities. Meaning: Appears in downtrends; signals potential bullish reversal, with indecision from the doji and confirmation by a strong bullish candle. EVENING STAR What is the Evening Star pattern? The Evening Star is a three-candle pattern that appears at the top of an uptrend, signaling a potential bearish reversal. It consists of a bullish candle, a small-bodied middle candle, and a bearish candle, showing a transition from buyer control to seller strength. This pattern often appears at market peaks, where optimism is giving way to caution. Understanding the Evening Star pattern helps traders anticipate downtrend formations, allowing them to time their exits. Meaning: Found in uptrends; signals potential bearish reversal as sellers gain control, confirmed if the third candle closes below the first. BEARISH ABANDONED BABY What is the Bearish Abandoned Baby pattern? The Bearish Abandoned Baby is the bearish counterpart to the Bullish Abandoned Baby and consists of a bullish candle, a gapped doji, and a bearish candle. This pattern reveals a dramatic shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish, highlighting a sudden reversal at the top of an uptrend. Recognizing the Bearish Abandoned Baby can offer traders insight into market tops and impending trend changes. Meaning: Appears in uptrends; indicates strong bearish reversal, as indecision in the doji is followed by selling strength. THREE BLACK CROWS What is the Three Black Crows pattern? The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive bearish candles, each closing lower than the last, appearing in uptrends to signal potential reversal. This pattern reflects sustained selling pressure, indicating that sellers are gaining control. The Three Black Crows highlight a moment when buyer confidence wanes, marking the beginning of downward momentum. For traders, this pattern provides a clear signal to avoid buying into weakening trends or even entering short trades. Meaning: Found in uptrends; signals potential bearish reversal, with sustained selling pressure often marking the start of a downtrend. EVENING DOJI STAR What is the Evening Doji Star pattern? The Evening Doji Star is similar to the Evening Star, but with a doji as the middle candle, highlighting greater indecision. This pattern consists of a bullish candle, a doji, and a bearish candle, indicating a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. The doji suggests that buyers are losing control, with sellers prepared to reverse the trend. Understanding Evening Doji Stars allows traders to recognize market tops, helping them avoid overextended trends. Meaning: Appears in uptrends; signals potential bearish reversal, as the doji suggests indecision, confirmed by strong selling on the third candle.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
8
XAUUSD: Bearish Bias SetupI am watching for a possible reversal in XAUUSD, predicting a rejection with a downside target around 3.300. This downside target is reasonable based on this setup, as it is based on a previous bullish move, from which price could find support and bounce, or break below, and the downside momentum could start to continue down. I am just sharing my thoughts on the chart, this is not financial advice. Always confirm your setup and manage your risk accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Adam_Scalping
3
Bitcoin - Bullish Reversal PotentialBitcoin is currently consolidating within a well-defined range, with repeated rejections from the upper resistance zone and strong reactions from the support below. Price continues to respect both ends of the structure, suggesting that liquidity is being built up on both sides. Until a clear breakout occurs, we should expect more range-bound movement with sharp rejections near the boundaries. Support Zone and Liquidity Engineering The support zone beneath current price action has already held several times, showing clear buying interest. However, the lows around this area remain relatively clean. A sweep of those lows would not only engineer sell-side liquidity but also set the stage for a reversal if buyers step back in. This would align well with typical accumulation behavior seen during consolidation phases. Rejections from Resistance and FVG Influence Price has shown multiple rejections from the resistance zone, particularly inside the fair value gap that sits just above it. This confirms that the area is actively defended and will likely be the next upside target if price manages to bounce from support. The FVG itself acts as a magnet once price begins to trend again, especially if a strong displacement follows a sweep. Expected Flow and Trade Opportunity The anticipated scenario involves price dipping back into support, possibly sweeping the lows for inducement, and then bouncing with a shift in short-term structure. If that happens, we can expect a move back toward resistance, completing another rotation within the range. The sweep would offer an added layer of confirmation, giving a stronger reason to look for long setups. Invalidation and Risk Perspective If support fails to hold and price breaks beneath the range without immediate recovery, that would invalidate the bullish view and point to a potential shift in directional bias. As long as price stays inside the current consolidation, however, this remains a waiting game for either a clean reaction from support or a sweep followed by structure shift. Conclusion Bitcoin remains locked in a clear range, and until the breakout happens, the edges of that range offer the best trading opportunities. A sweep of the lows would act as a high-probability signal for a reversal back to the highs. Patience is key, wait for the sweep and confirmation before committing to the upside. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
47
USDT DOMINANCE Update (2H)After losing important levels, the price has now started to pull back, and it seems that some of the market’s major players have taken profits. On the chart, the price faces two key levels ahead, from which it could be rejected at either one. There is also a possibility that the price will reach the key level zone. We are waiting for the reaction to these levels. A daily candle close above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by behdark
Gold (XAU/USD): A Classic VSA Short Setup in PlayHey Traders, Following up on the general weakness we discussed in Gold, here's a closer look at a specific trade setup that's unfolding right now. This is a textbook example of a high-probability short setup according to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). Let's break down the story the volume is telling us. 1. The Breakdown: Sellers Show Their Hand First, look at how the price broke down hard through that support level (the grey box). Notice the volume on that sharp drop? It was high. This is our clue that sellers are strong and in control. They had enough power to smash right through a level that was previously holding the price up. 2. The Retest: Buyers Don't Show Up Now, the price is creeping back up to that same exact level. But here's the most important clue: look at the volume on this rally. It's much lower than the volume on the breakdown. This is what VSA calls a "No Demand" rally. It’s like the market is trying to push a car uphill without any gas. It tells us that strong buyers (the "smart money") have no interest in buying at these prices. 3. The Setup: Selling into Weakness This combination creates a classic short setup: Logic: We are looking to sell at a level where old support has flipped into new resistance. Confirmation: The low volume on the retest confirms the rally is weak and likely to fail. How to Potentially Trade It The grey box represents a high-probability entry zone. To time an entry, you could watch for a clear rejection signal right inside this zone. For example: A "rejection candle" (like a pin bar) that pushes into the zone but gets slammed back down. An up-bar with a tiny body and very low volume, showing buyers are completely exhausted. Seeing one of these signs would be the final confirmation that sellers are about to take back control. Conclusion: This is a powerful setup because all the pieces line up: the background is weak, sellers have shown their strength, and buyers are now showing no interest at a key resistance level. Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis using VSA and is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Good luck, traders!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by bluewolf_trades
ETH/USD (1H) – Smart Money OutlookCurrent price reacting near a key demand zone ($3,510–$3,525) after a confirmed BOS + CHoCH, signaling a shift in momentum. 🔍 Two Key Scenarios: 🟣 Bullish Case: Price holds above current OB & shows bullish intent Possible long setups targeting: TP1: $3,600 (pullback zone) TP2: $3,740 (bearish OB) TP3: $3,800+ (liquidity sweep at Day High) 🟠 Bearish Case: Clean break below $3,510 without bullish reaction Bearish continuation toward POI zone $3,360–$3,400 📌 Key SMC Concepts Applied: Order Blocks (OBs) CHoCH & BOS structure shift Liquidity Zones (SSL/Day High/Day Low) RSI & MACD Confluence 📚 Bias: Bearish to Neutral — Wait for bullish rejection or clear break. ⚠️ Note: Trade with confirmation, not assumption. Stay disciplined!
CRYPTO:ETHUSDShort
by SmartMoneyProfessional
14