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Supply and Demand

SPX500 Outlook – CPI Data in Focus, Key Pivot at 6282SPX500 – Market Outlook U.S. futures are climbing as Nvidia plans to resume chip sales to China, fueling positive momentum across tech and growth sectors. However, investor caution remains ahead of key events: Major banks ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC Wells Fargo, NYSE:C Citigroup) will report earnings, offering insights into the financial sector. All eyes are on the June CPI report, expected at 2.6%. A higher reading could reinforce bearish pressure, while a softer print would support continued bullish momentum. Technical Outlook: SPX500 has bounced from the demand zone and is now trading above the pivot at 6282, which keeps the bullish trend in play. As long as the price holds above this level, we expect continuation toward 6341, and if broken, extended upside toward 6394. To shift bearish, price must break and close below 6223, which would open the path toward 6142. Pivot: 6282 Resistance: 6341 – 6394 Support: 6225 – 6191 – 6142 Event Watch : CPI data release today – anything above 2.6% may trigger downside; below 2.6% could support further upside. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
End of trend with Head & Shoulders forming. On the monthly chart the pair has been ranging between 1.2 and 1.43 since 2016 with resistance established 2018. Currently on up leg of third cycle. Ignoring the Liz Truss blip.   Daily chart uptrend established Jan 25 and should continue up to resistance. However possible head & shoulders forming, which would indicate change of character, at most recent cycle but a good trade up to right shoulder still possible and then it will change to down trend to trend line   4H -  Price at good quality demand with 4 basing candles. Ready for reversal and long to potential right shoulder at 1.355 or higher all the way to multiyear resistance.   COT Non-com and retail are increasing positions and commercials are reducing. Valuation is cheap.   Plan: waiting for US CPI data and confirmation of direction change and then long with stop at 1.33570 and TP at 1.355 to right shoulder. (I like these as worst that can happen, after up move is confirmed, is H&S doesnt form and it continues to upside increasing R:R). Followed by good short. Let me know what you think
Long
by TregTrader
2
XAU/USD 15 July Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase. Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025. Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Silver Update (XAGUSD): Eyeing the Next Move After the $39 SurgeAs mentioned in my Friday analysis, Silver ( TRADENATION:EURUSD XAGUSD) was preparing for an important breakout — and indeed, the market delivered. The clean break through resistance triggered a strong acceleration, pushing the metal up to $39, pretty close to the psychological $40 level. Now, we’re seeing a healthy correction after this steep rise, and this could turn into a buying opportunity for the bulls. 📌 Key support zone: The ideal area to watch is between $37.20 and $37.50 — this is the sweet spot where bulls might step back in. But be aware: 👉 After strong breakouts, the broken resistance doesn’t always get retested — sometimes the price rebounds from higher levels. 🎯 Plan of Action: • Monitor price action under $38 • Watch for reaction patterns and structure shifts • Don’t force entries — let the market confirm Silver remains strong as long as the structure holds, and this pullback might just be the market catching its breath before another leg up. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
Gold (XAU/USD) – Bullish Continuation SetupGold is moving within an ascending trendline, showing strong bullish momentum. Price is approaching a Bearish Order Block near 3,370, which may trigger a short-term pullback 📉. If price rejects from this zone and retests the trendline (around 3,355), it could offer a high-probability long setup for a continuation move toward 3,380+ 📈🚀. 🔍 Key Levels: Resistance: 3,368–3,370 (Bearish Order Block) Support: 3,355 (Trendline area) 💡 Trading Idea: Look for price action confirmation near the trendline for potential buys. Break above the order block could fuel further upside.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Evelyn_Trading_Room
1
EURAUD FORMING BEARISH FLAG PATTERN IN 4H TIME FRAMEEURAUD Bearish Flag Pattern Suggests Further Downside Ahead The EURAUD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish flag pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend. Price action remains confined within a secondary corrective phase, but the primary bearish trend is expected to resume soon. Traders should watch for another bearish flag formation in the upcoming sessions, reinforcing the likelihood of further declines. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Trend Structure: The pair has been moving in a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows confirming seller dominance. 2. Secondary Trend Phase: The current consolidation represents a temporary pause before the next leg down. 3. Bearish Flag Formation: The flag pattern suggests a continuation signal, with a potential downside target near 1.76400. Trading Strategy: - Entry: Consider short positions only after a confirmed breakdown below the flag’s support with strong bearish momentum. - Target: The measured move projection points toward 1.76400, but partial profits can be taken along the way. - Stop Loss: A conservative stop should be placed above the recent swing high to limit risk in case of a false breakout. Risk Management: - Maintain a disciplined risk-reward ratio (at least 1:2). - Avoid aggressive entries; wait for clear confirmation (e.g., a strong bearish candle closing below support). Conclusion: EURAUD remains bearish, and the formation of another bearish flag reinforces the possibility of further downside. Traders should remain patient for a confirmed breakdown before entering short positions while adhering to strict risk management rules.
Short
by TraderAishDXB
Oil Futures Approaching Key Reversal Zone – Bullish HarmonicOil futures may be forming a bullish Shark harmonic pattern, with price approaching the potential reversal zone at point D. This pattern suggests a possible bounce if buyers step in around this area. If price action shows signs of support or a shift in momentum, it could offer a solid long opportunity. Look for confirmation like bullish candles or indicators turning up before entering. If the pattern plays out, it could provide a strong risk-to-reward setup.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FreedomBuilder
CADJPY TRADING IN A BEARISH TREND STRUCTUREThe CAD/JPY currency pair is currently exhibiting a bearish trend structure, indicating a prevailing downward momentum in its price action. At present, the pair is trading within a secondary trend near a significant resistance level, which is a critical point that could determine its next directional move. Traders and investors are closely monitoring this level as a breakout or rejection here could set the tone for future price movements. On the lower side, if the bearish momentum continues, the price may decline toward the target of 104.900. This level could act as a key support zone, where buyers might step in to halt further losses. A break below this support could intensify selling pressure, potentially pushing the pair toward lower levels. Conversely, if the price finds stability near this support, a short-term rebound could occur, providing traders with potential buying opportunities in a corrective phase. On the higher side, if the pair manages to overcome the current resistance, it may attempt to test the next key resistance level at 108.300. A successful breakout above this level could signal a shift in market sentiment, possibly leading to a trend reversal or a stronger corrective rally. However, given the prevailing bearish structure, any upward movement may face strong selling pressure near resistance zones, limiting upside potential. Traders should remain cautious and watch for confirmation signals before entering positions. Key indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD can provide additional insights into momentum and potential reversals. Risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, should be employed to mitigate downside risks in case the market moves against expectations. Overall, the CAD/JPY pair remains in a bearish phase, and its next major move will depend on how it reacts to the critical resistance and support levels mentioned.
Short
by Brillant_Capital
Bitcoin is still bullish (4H)Bitcoin appears to be in a dual bullish structure, currently in the second bullish phase following wave X. Considering the expansive nature of the correction in the second pattern, it seems we are within an expanding triangle or a diametric structure. Based on the duration of wave C, it appears that the bullish wave of the second structure is not yet complete. We expect such fluctuations for Bitcoin in the coming period. A daily candle close below the invalidation level would invalidate this outlook. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
Gold is showing signs of bearish RSI divergence.🚨 Gold Update – Potential Selling Opportunity Ahead 🚨 Gold is showing signs of bearish RSI divergence on the 15-minute chart, while the RSI is already in the overbought zone. The price is also approaching a key supply zone, which could trigger a reversal. 📉 Multiple confirmations are pointing toward a potential sell setup: Bearish RSI divergence Overbought RSI condition Approaching a strong supply zone If price breaks below the 8 EMA with a bearish engulfing candle, it may confirm downward momentum. ⚠️ Watch closely — This setup is shaping up with solid confluence. 🔍 Always do your own research (DYOR) – This is not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Peter_Wade
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/15/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 23036.00 - PR Low: 23000.00 - NZ Spread: 80.5 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | CPI (Core|MoM|YoY) Asian hours vol spike breakout swing into new ATHs Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 7/15) - Session Open ATR: 290.39 - Volume: 42K - Open Int: 276K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -0.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 23239 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 20383 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025Long
by mv3trader5
1
QQQ July 14th 2025I failed to update my trade journal at the end of last week and am going to try to be better about it this week. I am going to try to keep these posts more brief so I can remain consistent and meet my goal of creating an accurate timeline of my trades. For this week, I am going in with a bullish bias, which is better supported on the PA for NASDAQ:QQQ instead of AMEX:SPY , so I will be trading it instead. The price is currently down 0.60% overnight, which would take the price near the bottom of the range ($550), which is outside of the channel. In this flat structure, we will either see the price break up after a liquidity test (spring) or break down in a true bearish reversal. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Neutral Analysis Renko: As my main chart, Renko clearly shows both scenarios, illustrated by the solid white (bullish) line and the dotted (bearish) line. For the bullish idea, the price will find a significant number of buyers after a false breakout to the downside. I switched from Traditional box sizes to ATR (14) filtered, and as you can see, the automatic rally (AR) after the peak did not have a significant retracement. We did not see a retest of the upper part of the range that could be considered a secondary test (ST) until some time later and when it did, the price rose back to the peak, indicating that buyers still had strength. From there, the price has been chopping around in Phase B without making much progress to the downside, which it will most likely reach on Monday in the form of a gap down. Additionally, the rising channel that led to this pullback is also a strong pattern, so this pullback should be treated as possible re-accumulation. If the price fails to reenter the channel or reach the top after a breakout below the range, it will likely sell off from there. 200R Chart: The range chart also supports that the secondary test was the retest of the top of the channel, a potential sign of strength. The price is still way above the 200MA, so the uptrend appears strong. One important area to watch is the volume gap from $548-$549 on the volume profile. If bulls cannot defend the gap, that could be a potential sign of weakness. 500R Chart: I am including this chart because it does provide a reason to be cautious of a pullback, or even a reversal. The price is at the top of the channel that began on April 9th. The last time the price tested the upper boundary, it formed a temporary top and pulled back, which we could see play out again here. The volume candles also show significantly higher interest since May 13th. This could either be due to increased interest from buyers or the distribution of shares, requiring more effort to move the price higher. Daily Chart: Here is another chart that suggests that the first movement that could be considered a secondary test was the retest of the top of the range. The price has been bouncing off monthly VWAP and Fisher Transform remains flat in the upper zone. We have not seen a bearish candle with intent on the daily chart. These have all been flat doji candles. Options: For this section, I can’t provide a good analysis of on-the-money options since the price is likely to gap down. I’m including 7/15 $550p since the price will likely open around that level and will need to move below the strike to see the premium rise significantly. The price of this contract was in a larger descending channel and will need a strong break above the top ($2.15) in order to signal further downside for $QQQ. According to my options calculator, this would require the underlying price to drop below $551 for an extended period. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Targets Calls: Open at $549; Close at $557; Stop below $548 Puts: Open $550-$552; Close at $544.50; Stop above $555
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ap769
Market Watch UPDATES! Stock Indices, Gold, Silver, US OILWelcome to the Market Watch Updates for Monday, July 14th. In this video, we will give the forecast updates for the following markets: S&P500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, GOLD, SILVER and US OIL. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RT_Money
1
BTC ShortBTC’s 1‑hour structure is showing clear signs of weakness following rejection from the premium supply zone between 122 000 and 123 200. After sweeping equal highs and tapping into the 50 % internal retracement level around 119 900, price sold off sharply, breaking below the intraday demand at ~119 000. This shift in market structure signals bearish intent in the short term. The strong rejection, combined with increased sell-side volume, indicates that the rally was more likely a liquidity grab than true bullish strength. As a result, BTC is now expected to continue lower toward the 117 000 level to clear resting liquidity beneath recent lows. This level aligns with the previous CHOCH (Change of Character) and is a key liquidity pocket. Once BTC grabs the liquidity below 117 000, we anticipate a potential bullish reaction and reversal, as smart money may use this area to re-accumulate and drive price higher. However, until that liquidity is collected, the bias remains bearish in the short term. As always, proper risk management is essential—define your invalidation clearly and manage position size responsibly to protect capital in this volatile environment.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ProSignalai
GOLD Buy Setup – OB Zone in FocusCurrently, gold is respecting the ascending trendline and maintaining a bullish structure 🟢. Price hasn’t tapped into the 30 Min Order Block (OB) yet, but we are expecting a potential pullback into this OB zone 📍. ✅ Our Plan: We will wait patiently for price to mitigate the OB. After the tap, we will look for bullish confirmation (rejection wick, bullish engulfing, or break of minor structure) before entering a buy position 🚀. As long as the trendline holds, we remain bullish on gold. 📝 Invalidation: If price breaks and closes below the trendline and OB zone, we will stay out or re-evaluate the setup ❌. Stay disciplined and follow the plan! 💪
TVC:GOLDLong
by Erin_Gold_Vault