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Supply and Demand

PROGRESS ON THE NASDAQ SHORTSNAS100 4H - Who watched this weeks Sunday Sessions video? If you did then you would know that I was looking to short this market this week and as you can see price has played out exactly as we had predicted. A huge well done to anyone who got themselves in shorts this week with this market, I feel this bearish pressure is going to be here to stay, we may see some sort of correction initially before a further down move. Now that price has broken structure on the 4H timeframe to the downside we have higher timeframe confluence to suggest further bearish structure, we should now be looking for areas of Supply to add to our shorts from. The best thing we can do is look at the previous impulsive wave that broke the structure for areas of Supply, this is where price will pullback up and into to set a lower high before the new lower low.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Lukegforex
1
THOUGHTS ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - With this market I am expecting some bearish structure as I want price to put in a deeper correction to the downside before taking us higher in the market. Before price does that I am expecting an initial correction to the upside fractally in order for price to grab more Supply allowing price to continue lower performing this deeper correction. Once price trades us higher up and into the Supply Zone above I will be waiting for relevant pieces of confirmation in order to enter short in this market, I will ride price down and into the Demand zone below. Once price trades us down and into the Demand zone I will look to close my short positions and I will prepare to go long in this market with it being a predominately bullish market on the higher timeframe structure, this giving us a clear longer term bias.
Short
by Lukegforex
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. It’s a quick one for this NFP due to it being the first day of the month as well as KOG having completed nearly all the bias and Excalibur targets on Gold. On the chart we have the levels with key level 2730-27, which if supported again can give us a further push upside into the 2760-65 level initially. The 2760-65 level needs to be watch, as breaching this level will correct the move for yesterday and we will be attempting to break above 2800. Below, we need a break below the 2730 level to see further losses with lower bias level targets sitting at 2710 and below that 2703. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
SPX: Critical Levels and Volatility Ahead Amid Key Data ReleasesTechnical Analysis The price is likely to attempt a retest around 5,761 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643. Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,732. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,732 could activate the next bearish zone. Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850. Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,732 and 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675. Today’s market is expected to be highly volatile due to the release of the NFP, Unemployment Rate data, and earnings reports, which will likely have a strong impact on indices. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5748 Resistance Levels: 5781, 5803, 5824 Support Levels: 5709, 5675, 5643 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
USNAS100 / NFP With bearish volatility Technically : The price has dropped precisely as anticipated. It is now expected to reach 19860, with a stabilization below 20008 level likely extending the decline toward 19740. Bearish Scenario: While trading below 20000, the price may attempt to reach 19860 and 19740. A break below 19740 would pave the way for further declines toward 19520. Bullish Scenario: Stabilization above 20020 would open the path to 20240. Further strength above this level could create a bullish zone targeting 20420. Today’s market is expected to be highly volatile due to the release of the NFP, Unemployment Rate data, and earnings reports, which will likely have a strong impact on indices. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20020 Resistance Levels: 20125, 20240, 20330 Support Levels: 19860, 19740, 19520 Trend outlook: - Bullish above 20125 - Bearish below 20020 previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
XAU/USD 01 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 31 October 2024 -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal. Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Yesterday's intraday expectation from 31 October 2024 was met as price targeted weak internal low, printing another bearish iBOS. CHoCH positioning is still quite distant from current price. To confirm the internal structure, I would like to see price move up to the 50% internal EQ level. Intraday Expectation: I will remain on standby and wait for price action that allows me to confirm the internal structure. Note: Price continues to be highly volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s dovish stance. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the release of the NFP index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. If the decline continues due to the release of economic data today, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell gold short-term within the specified supply zone. Gold prices have surged significantly, reaching new records as the U.S. elections, a major and risky event, draw closer. It is expected that if the results deviate from expectations, particularly with a victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump, market reactions could intensify. This month, gold prices have risen by 5%, and since the start of the year, they have increased by 34%, ranking second only to silver, which has grown by 42.3%. These price increases have raised concerns about the sustainability of these gains and the potential for reaching a price peak. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. jobs report for October is anticipated to show that the unemployment rate has remained stable, although storms and strikes have temporarily impacted hiring. It is estimated that the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will drop to 105,000, down from the 254,000 increase in September. The range of expectations is quite broad, from a decline of 10,000 to an increase of 180,000. This report could complicate future decision-making for the Federal Reserve. A stock market-based prediction model indicates a nearly 70% likelihood of forecasting the winner of the U.S. election. This model leverages a historical trend where the ruling political party’s chances of victory are reflected in the annual performance of the Dow Jones Index, boasting an exceptionally high statistical accuracy of 99%. According to this model, when the Dow Jones Index has improved over the year, the incumbent political party has a better chance of winning. In this scenario, the incumbent party would refer to Kamala Harris, giving her a 69% chance of victory. Based on this predictive model, stock market performance serves as an effective indicator for gauging the incumbent party’s chances of winning. The model points to the historical trend that if the Dow Jones Index has risen during the year, it suggests greater public confidence and a healthier economic condition, which benefits the ruling party. Regarding gold, factors such as global macroeconomic conditions, the state of the U.S. dollar, and Federal Reserve policy decisions also influence its price. While markets await the jobs report and election results, analysts believe gold will remain attractive as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Thus, if economic data falls short of expectations or political tensions increase, there is potential for further gold price gains. However, experts warn that if prices rise excessively, a potential correction could follow. Investors will closely monitor the factors influencing the global economy and monetary policies to make the best decisions for investing in gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
GBPAUD -UK will continue its economic growth?!The GBPAUD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Asia’s economy will grow by 4.6% in 2024 and by 4.4% in 2025. Downward price pressures from China could impact countries with similar export structures and lead to trade tensions. The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) plans to auction £59.2 billion in conventional long-term government bonds in the fiscal year 2024-2025. According to the DMO, the net issuance of government bonds for this fiscal year is projected to reach £296.9 billion. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has indicated that the previous government did not provide all necessary information, and if it had, their spring budget forecast would have been significantly different. OBR forecasts suggest that the consumer price index (CPI) will reach 2.6% in 2025 (compared to the 1.5% forecast in March), 2.3% in 2026 (March forecast 1.6%), 2.1% in 2027 (March forecast 1.9%), 2.1% in 2028 (March forecast 2.0%), and 2.0% in 2029. The forecasts also project GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025 (March forecast 1.9%), 1.8% in 2026 (March forecast 2.0%), 1.5% in 2027 (March forecast 1.8%), 1.5% in 2028 (March forecast 1.7%), and 1.6% in 2029. Reeves, the UK Chancellor, stated that there will be more plans aimed at boosting economic growth. Yesterday, the UK sold £2.25 billion in bonds maturing in 2053, with a bid-to-cover ratio (B/C) of 3.15, up from the previous 3.08. The average yield on these bonds was 4.831%, higher than the previous yield of 4.735%.
Short
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Yen will continue to strengthen?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zone and buy in those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment for October, continuing to believe that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace. However, it downgraded its outlook on production, indicating that output might be facing challenges and may struggle to grow significantly. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister, Akazawa, stated that currency movements are being closely monitored, and proposed policies from other parties will be reviewed. He also noted that a weaker yen could lead to a decrease in income and private consumption, particularly if wage growth is insufficient. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 103 out of 111 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November and December of this year, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, 74 out of 96 surveyed economists predict that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will drop to 3% to 3.25% or higher by the end of 2025. A recent report from CIBC suggests that a 3% growth in U.S. GDP is unlikely to overheat the economy. CIBC believes that the U.S. economy can sustain growth at this rate while continuing its rate-cutting cycle. The report shows that U.S. economic growth has reached 2.8%, slightly below analysts’ 3% expectation. Nonetheless, the details reflect a robust economic performance, with domestic consumption offsetting the negative effects of net trade. CIBC analysts argue that 3% growth should be seen as a new measure of economic capacity rather than a sign of overheating. They point to improvements in productivity and cooling labor markets and inflation, asserting that
Long
by Ali_PSND
Copper - The impact of China's support packagesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. As long as copper is in the range, selling at the ceiling and buying at the bottom of the range will be recommended. If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the ceiling of the range is broken, it is possible to sell copper in the specified supply zone. Chinese banks have recently reduced interest rates on existing mortgage loans, which amount to a total of 25.2 trillion yuan. This move aims to support the real estate market and bolster China’s economy. Meanwhile, the CEO of Maersk stated that they do not expect to navigate the Red Sea efficiently until 2025. Additionally, they see no signs of a decline in global demand or transaction volumes in the coming months. Maersk, one of the largest shipping companies in the world, was founded in Denmark in 1904 and is known for its extensive operations in maritime shipping, logistical services, transport, and financial services. On Tuesday, the World Bank reported that global commodity prices are projected to drop to their lowest in five years by 2025. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook (CMO), the bank noted that despite this decline, overall commodity prices will remain 30% higher than five years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although forecasts vary by commodity, improved supply conditions are cited as a key factor in the overall price reduction. A Reuters survey predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. These figures mark a change compared to the July survey, which projected 3.1% growth for both years. According to a recent analytical note from Bank of America, U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) for this month are expected to increase by around 100,000 jobs, a significant decrease from the 254,000 jobs added in September. This decline is primarily attributed to disruptions caused by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing workers’ strike, which likely reduced job opportunities and working hours.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Ali_PSND
AAVE uptrend slowing downOn the background of bleeding BTC i see AAVE uptrend slows down. 1D channel begins to incline, and correction wave fails to print new HH 3 times in a row already. So it might be signs of reversal. 137 support is still valid, but sellers are pressing that triangle down. So I will watch big TF close candles on that Support level. If 1D closed under 137 (after touch) I will count that as an uptrend channel breakout and target the lower demand zone. It 1D close above 137 (after touch) I will target the triangle upper border. And a trend channel bottom retest on the same time.
by CyberBOB_Crypto