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Supply and Demand

GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the corrective movement continues towards the supply zone, we can sell with a suitable risk reward. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the UK government faces significant challenges in restoring investor confidence, as the pound and British bonds continue their downward trend. Following a decline in UK markets early in 2025 due to rising concerns over debt and inflation, about 51% of the 250 participants in last week’s survey predicted the pound would fall to between $1.15 and $1.20 by the end of June. This would mark the currency’s weakest level in over two years. Meanwhile, 45% of participants anticipate greater volatility in the pound, with 10-year UK bond yields expected to rise above 5% this year.Taylor, a member of the Bank of England, emphasized the importance of staying vigilant against potential risks. He suggested that recent data indicate a worsening economic outlook and that interest rates should be reduced promptly to avoid further challenges. In Japan, households expect prices to rise in the coming year. The percentage of households with such expectations increased slightly from 85.6% in the previous survey to 85.7%. However, five-year inflation expectations have seen a slight decline. According to the Bank of Japan, average annual inflation expectations among households stand at 11.5%, based on the latest survey. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week. The firm also remains optimistic about the yen, expecting any action by the Bank of Japan in January to support the currency. Market pricing suggests that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost certain. According to Bloomberg, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will evaluate the need for a rate hike on Friday. Expectations for an interest rate increase have grown, provided that potential shocks from the early days of Trump’s presidency do not materialize. While other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are focused on rate cuts, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction, aiming for a gradual return to conventional monetary policies. The Bank of Japan is set to announce its first interest rate decision of 2025 on Friday. During its final meeting in 2024, the bank decided to keep rates unchanged. Governor Ueda stated that more data is needed to justify a rate hike, highlighting concerns about wages and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic policies. Since then, new data has shown a significant rise in November inflation, with December inflation pressures also intensifying. Wages also grew in November. Additionally, a summary of opinions from the December meeting indicates that a rate hike could occur sooner than investors anticipate. Given these developments and recent remarks from BoJ officials, investors assign an 80% probability to a 0.25% rate hike. However, the Bank of Japan has a long history of disappointing expectations for rate increases. If Trump adopts an aggressive stance on tariffs in his upcoming speech, the BoJ may once again refrain from raising rates, potentially leading to a decline in the yen. If the Bank of Japan does raise interest rates, the yen is likely to strengthen, but the associated risks are asymmetrical. The negative impact of refraining from a hike could outweigh the positive effect of an increase. Nonetheless, a further decline in the yen might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to support the currency.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for Trump's new policies!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Bullish signs are abundant in the cryptocurrency market, as investors observe various factors that favor this sector beyond Bitcoin. While some analysts predict 2025 as the year of altcoins, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin will remain an attractive option. Market experts point to cyclical trends that could boost altcoins such as Solana and Ripple. These two tokens experienced significant growth following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by expectations of greater support from the new administration. However, JPMorgan highlights four reasons why investors should approach the altcoin market cautiously. First, future policies remain speculative, with uncertainty surrounding their timing and impact. Although reduced regulatory oversight may improve sentiment across the industry, there is no guarantee that interest in decentralized finance will grow substantially. JPMorgan noted that it is still unclear whether these new regulations will allow the crypto ecosystem to integrate into traditional financial systems or if public blockchains like Ethereum will play a central role in the future. Additionally, the bank stated that ambitious plans for crypto reserves in the United States and beyond are likely to focus solely on Bitcoin. Certain U.S. states have already proposed legislation to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a policy Washington might adopt during Trump’s second term. Second, Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency fund space. JPMorgan predicts that retail and institutional investors will keep investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs, supported by Bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. According to a Bernstein report, Bitcoin is expected to replace gold as the primary store of value in the global economy over the next decade. Bitcoin accounted for 35% of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024, according to JPMorgan. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs, launched in July 2024, attracted only $2.4 billion. The bank also forecasts that future ETFs for altcoins like Solana may see limited capital inflows. Third, the Bitcoin network is evolving to rival tokens with more specific use cases, such as Ethereum. Historically, Bitcoin was perceived as a buy-and-hold asset with limited functionality. However, developers have been expanding its capabilities, and new smart contract features will help it compete with rivals. JPMorgan also stated that large institutions might overlook public blockchains like Ethereum in favor of private blockchains offering customized solutions for institutional investors. Fourth, new altcoin projects require time to mature and prove their utility. The bank explained that decentralized initiatives often attract initial user attention but then face declining activity and token value. To achieve sustainability, these projects must demonstrate their long-term functional benefits. JPMorgan cautioned investors against expecting a repeat of the 2021 crypto bull market. During that period, projects succeeded through token distribution, but the current industry is more focused on blockchain capability development. The bank further noted that MicroStrategy is still halfway through its plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin. This software company has made a name for itself by accumulating vast Bitcoin reserves through equity and debt financing. For the first time in history, over 20% of total spot trading volume is conducted on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Standard Chartered Bank warned that if the $90,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to around $80,000. The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETF purchases have stabilized since the U.S. presidential election, and Jerome Powell’s policy shifts at the Federal Reserve on December 18 have increased selling pressure on digital assets. The bank cautioned that widespread panic could amplify these sell-offs, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies.Nevertheless, such a price drop could present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Buy Trade Idea: USD/CHFUSD/CHF has recently broken above the key resistance level at 0.9128, which has now turned into a support zone. The price is currently retesting this level, indicating potential for a bullish continuation toward higher resistance zones. Entry: 0.9128 Stop Loss (SL): 0.9080 Take Profit (TP): 0.9300 As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:4, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, market structure, and the breakout-retest dynamic, supporting a bullish bias.
Long
by Trade_Navigator010
NAS100 - Nasdaq index path, after the inauguration!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply range will provide us with the conditions to sell it. As markets prepare for Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar has weakened slightly. Early signals suggest that no significant changes in tariff policies are imminent, leading to a minor dip in the dollar’s value. Over the weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a positive conversation. Following the call, Trump tweeted, “Just had an excellent conversation with Xi Jinping of China. This was very good for both China and the U.S. I expect us to solve many issues together, and we’ll start immediately.” Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Technology Index has reached its highest level in two years. Bloomberg data shows the 30-day correlation index between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq stands at approximately 0.70, indicating closely aligned movements between the two assets. On another front, Jared Bernstein, head of Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, has warned that the incoming Trump administration’s potential interference in Federal Reserve interest rate policies could risk a resurgence in inflation. Bernstein emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed’s independence and noted that executive actions should not influence interest rate decisions. TD Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady during the first half of this year. However, it expects rate cuts to resume in the second half, with the terminal rate reaching the low 3% range. This strategy reflects the economy’s need to digest Trump’s new policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light.Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed on Monday, January 20, 2025, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Later in the week, key economic data will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. weekly jobless claims report will be published, followed by preliminary S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and existing home sales figures on Friday. Bank of America forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 4.75% this year, with the potential to surpass 5% depending on Federal Reserve decisions. However, it sees a low probability of yields exceeding 5.25%. The bank cites a strong macroeconomic backdrop and a hawkish Federal Reserve, suggesting that any rate hikes will depend on inflation data. Bank of America also notes that yields near 5% could represent a compelling buying opportunity, provided the Consumer Price Index remains stable or declines slightly.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD 20 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per my intraday expectation dated 17 January 2024 by printing a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Internal range is now established as a result of the bearish CHoCH. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ or H4 demand zone to then target weak internal high priced at 2,724.785. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 17 January 2025. You will also note how price attempted to target strong internal low but failed to close below. Price Action Analysis: Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Within the sub-structure there is further bullish iBOS, however, price did not pullback deep enough to warrant a bullish iBOS. I will therefore apply my discretion, which may need a revisit. H4 TF has printed a bullish iBOS and it appears bearish pullback phase initiation is underway, however, we currently do not have any indication, or confirmation. Current internal low and H4 TF CHoCH positioning are the same, priced at 2,690.050, therefore, despite M15 internal range dynamics being bullish, it is highly likely price will print a bearish iBOS Intraday Expectation: Technically, price should show reaction at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,724.785, however, the above mentioned scenario is also highly probable to assist H4 in it's bearish pullback phase. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
USDCHF – Potential Bearish Continuation Toward SupportThe USDCHF pair has broken below a key ascending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This move aligns with a bearish bias, suggesting that price action may now head lower. If the price retraces back to the broken trendline or nearby resistance levels and forms bearish confirmations—such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or long upper wicks, it could reinforce the likelihood of further downside movement. Should this scenario materialize, sellers may target the 0.90484 level as the next area of interest. A sustained breakdown below this support zone could pave the way for continued bearish pressure. However, traders should remain cautious. A break back above the resistance zone or strong bullish momentum could invalidate this outlook.
Short
by TrendDiva
1
Sell Trade Idea: GBP/USDGBP/USD is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently retested a key resistance zone near 1.2220 and shown signs of rejection, indicating potential for further downside movement. Entry: 1.2220 Stop Loss (SL): 1.2270 Take Profit (TP): 1.2070 As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:3, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
Short
by Trade_Navigator010
KSM Buy/Long setup (8H)From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that KSM is forming an expanding triangle or a diametric pattern. Waves A through D have completed, and we are currently in wave E. Wave E is a bearish wave. We have identified two entries for buy positions. If the price reaches our entry levels, we will enter buy positions. The targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
GBPNZD Swing trade: WC20/01/2025 GBPNZD Analysis: Waiting for Key Closes From a swing perspective, GBPNZD is a no-trade for now, with a bias still leaning bullish. The higher timeframes (daily) show a deeper pullback into the previous higher high, indicating we may be in a consolidation phase. If today's daily close is below 2.17900, we could see a deeper pullback toward the 2.14900 region before a potential buy opportunity. This pullback could offer a solid 5:1 risk/reward if we enter once price begins to form a new higher high. For confirmation of bullish momentum, we’d need to see a daily close above 2.18783 today. This would signal strong upward momentum and give us a clearer entry for the next leg up. Patience is key, as we need confirmation before entering buys. Keep an eye on these levels!
Long
by Thetraderscollective
GBPJPY Analysis: Swing 20/01/2025 GBPJPY Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Since rejecting 198.500 on January 8th, GBPJPY has been in a steady bearish descent, completing an M-structure on the daily timeframe. Fundamentals continue to support JPY strength in the coming days and weeks, suggesting further bearish momentum. However, keep in mind that we could see a bullish pullback before the next leg down. For now, the key level to watch is 190.400. If we get a daily bearish close below this level, it could open the door for a move toward 187, offering a potential 400-pip opportunity before reassessing. Patience is crucial—no trade unless we see a confirmed break below 190.400
Short
by Thetraderscollective
PNUT buy/long setup (12H)We previously identified PNUT's fluctuations effectively. Based on recent data, it’s better to expand the PNUT pattern and classify it under a larger Triangle or Diametric structure. We are again looking for buy/long positions around the green zone. This is a strong origin kink. Targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this view. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 20/1/2025Gold remains bullish, but we're approaching a significant resistance level at 2748. On the 4-hour chart, this level has already formed a triple top: November 25th, December 24th, and January 16th. These repeated rejections highlight the importance of this area as a decision point for price action. For a continuation of the bullish trend, we need to see a strong 4-hour close above 2748. Why 4-hour? Because we've seen 30-minute closes above this level in the past, but the lack of follow-through led to bearish reversals. A confirmed 4-hour breakout would suggest the bulls are ready to push higher, targeting the next major level around 2787.55, offering approximately 200 pips of potential upside before re-evaluating the trade. On the flip side, a rejection at this level could lead to a significant move lower, similar to what we saw in December. The first target in this scenario is around 2640 (a potential 750-pip drop). If selling pressure intensifies, we could see an extended move down to 2581, which would represent a 1,300-pip decline. At those lower levels, we would look for buying opportunities, as they could provide a favourable setup for continuing the long-term bullish trend. For now, all eyes are on 2748—watch closely for how price reacts here, as it will set the tone for the next big move!
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Thetraderscollective