Supply and Demand
BTC/USDT 4H Timeframe AnalysisBTC/USDT 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend Analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC/USDT is in an uptrend, having recently broken above the minor key resistance at 99.500, which is now acting as a minor key support. After breaking this level, the price moved towards the next resistance level at 102.300, where large volumes of buyers accumulated.
However, the price then reversed, breaking below the minor key support to hunt for stop-losses, creating a liquidity zone. This marks a phase of manipulation. With liquidity now formed, the price is poised for another breakout to the upside. We expect the price to break above the minor key resistance at 102.700, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
Price Action Expectation:
Wait for the price to break above the minor key resistance at 102.700 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
Plan to enter after the breakout for optimal trade positioning.
Trade Setup
Trade Type: Buy Stop
Entry: 102.700 (upon confirmation of the breakout above resistance)
Stop Loss: 99.400 (below the liquidity zone to avoid false breakouts)
Take Profit: 110.000 (targeting the next significant resistance level)
This setup ensures a strategic approach, leveraging liquidity formation and trend continuation.
Fundamental Outlook:
Bitcoin is holding steady above $104,000, with open interest in BTC surpassing $65 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for Monday, and experts argue that this could turn into a pump-and-dump event for crypto. Cryptocurrency expert Frank Chaparro suggests that the crypto community is celebrating Trump’s inauguration as the end of a four-year “harassment” of crypto startups. The market may react to these events, and it's important to monitor the developments surrounding this situation as they could influence Bitcoin’s price movements.
Risk Management:
Maintain a 1:2+ risk-to-reward ratio to optimize potential returns.
Position size should be calculated based on your account equity and risk tolerance.
Closely monitor liquidity zones to avoid premature stop-outs.
Trading involves substantial risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always seek guidance from a financial professional if you’re unsure about trading decisions.
EURUSD 20-24 Jan 2025 W4 - Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 20-24 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Interest Rate Differentials: The widening gap between US and Eurozone interest rates favors the USD. Higher US yields attract capital flows, supporting the USD against the euro.
Inflation Trends: While inflation in the Eurozone remains subdued, the US continues to grapple with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed cautious about easing policy. This divergence further supports the USD.
Energy Prices: Elevated energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions, could weigh on the Eurozone’s trade balance and economic growth, adding pressure to the euro.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Expectations is for price to start a pullback phase from the Weekly demand zone / or from the liquidity sweep from the Nov 2022 low (Require Daily/4H confirmation).
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish approaching the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the receint iBOS, price pulled back to EQ (50%) of the INT Structure but currently failed to create a new iBOS with a Bullish CHoCH forming a new Demand.
🔹Expectations is not clear as we could start a deep pullback to intiate the Weekly Pullback Phase required or the current failure to creare a new Bearish iBOS is just a pause in market for more bearish move to at least the Weekly Demand. More development required from LTFs.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Fractal)
2️⃣
🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that price is contained within it.
3️⃣
🔹Price is currently ranging between Supply and Demand which clearly makes price indecisively have a clear direction. More developments required on LTFs to have a clear expectation.
Economic Events for the Week
USDCAD H1 | Bullish Bounce offBased on the H1 chart, price is falling toward the buy entry at 1.44197, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and for a bullish bounce off the key support level at. This level is expected to act as a strong entry point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 1.44777, targeting a swing high resistance level, marking a logical exit point for the trade.
The stop loss is set at 1.43675, below the recent swing low, allowing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bullish bias.
BTCUSD | Testing Major Resistance Zone – Will Sellers Take ContrCOINBASE:BTCUSD is approaching a significant resistance zone. This zone has consistently acted as a key area of interest where sellers regained control, resulting in prior reversals. If the price confirms a rejection through bearish price action, such as wicks signaling rejection or bearish engulfing candles, I anticipate a move downward toward the $101,793 level.
However, if the price successfully breaks and holds above the zone, this would invalidate the bearish outlook and could open the door for further upside. Traders should monitor price action closely at this critical resistance area.
Short trade
15min TF
Trade Setup:
Session Context:
LND to NY transition PM (1:00 PM).
Increased liquidity and volatility are typical during this overlap.
Sellside trade
LND to NY Session PM
1.00 pm
Entry 15min TF
Reason:
Price reached a pivotal supply level
During the LND to NY Session
Making a high
Candle formation on the 15min
Indicative of Sellside pressure
Entry 2751.3
Profit level 2736.1 (0.55%) Target OB
Stop level 2754.4 (0.11%)
RR 4.9
BITCOIN 1HR ANALYSIS 🚨 BITCOIN 1-Hour Analysis 🚨
Here’s what we’re watching:
📈 Upside Targets:
• TP1:105800
• TP2: 107700
📉 Downside Targets:
• TP1: 102900
• TP2: 104400
So we have to watch out for $104300- $104800level. If BTC stays below then you can target downside targets and if above then you can target above levels mentioned as TP(take profit)
Keep an eye on key levels and trade smart! 💹
What’s your take? Drop a comment below and share this with your trading crew! 🚀
XRP 1HR ANALYSIS 🚨 XRP 1-Hour Analysis 🚨
Here’s what we’re watching:
📈 Upside Targets:
• TP1: 3.39
• TP2: 3.67
📉 Downside Targets:
• TP1: 2.88
• TP2: 2.60
So we have to watch out for level. If XRP stays below 3.11- 3.07 then you can target downside targets and if above then you can target above levels mentioned as TP(take profit)
Keep an eye on key levels and trade smart! 💹
EURUSD - Potential Short from Resistance ZoneThe EURUSD pair is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. The price has recently bounced from the lower boundary of the channel and is now approaching a key resistance zone , aligning with the channel's upper boundary.
If the price rejects this resistance zone, it could signal a resumption of the downtrend. Confirmation of bearish momentum, such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or long upper wicks, would strengthen the likelihood of a downward move.
In this scenario, the next target for sellers would be the 1.02029 level. A break below this support could extend the bearish trend further toward lower levels.
Traders should closely monitor price action near the resistance zone for signs of rejection or a potential breakout.
AUS200 - Potential SHORT setupPEPPERSTONE:AUS200 is currently in a critical resistance zone that has consistently acted as a barrier for bullish momentum.
Taking this into account I anticipate a move toward at least 8,250. However, if the resistance fails to hold, it may open the door for further upside.
Proper risk management is essential, given the possibility of price breaking higher.
Feel free to share your opinions in the comments.
Risky buy on SolanaGiven the relevance of the memecoin space, demand for Solana is now higher than its ever been with no evidence or reason for things to slow down now.
Solana has provided a solid 2 hour pullback and tested support. We should expect the trend to continue. If we hit the target, perhaps we hodl a "Moonbag" hehe.
COTTON: Potential Sell from Resistance ZoneFOREXCOM:COTTON is nearing a significant resistance level that has previously acted as a ceiling for bullish momentum. The current upward move into this zone suggests potential selling opportunities if rejection signals appear.
If bearish patterns such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing candles emerge, I anticipate a move toward 6,818.0. Traders should wait for clear confirmation before initiating short positions. If you have anything to add or a different perspective, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!
USD ZAR TRADE IDEA The USD/ZAR chart displays a clear upward trend since 2019, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. An ascending channel pattern has formed, with the price currently trading within its boundaries. Key resistance levels are observed at 19.8128, 19.6694, and 19.34313, forming potential supply zones where selling pressure has previously been observed. Key support levels are seen at 18.54398, 18.21901, and 17.74159, forming potential demand zones where buying support has previously been observed. Given the prevailing uptrend and the ascending channel, a long trade could be considered. A long entry could be triggered upon a break above the upper trendline of the channel or a retest of a demand zone. A stop-loss order could be placed below a recent swing low or the 18.00000 level. The profit target could be set at the 19.8128 resistance level or the upper boundary of a supply zone. It is crucial to conduct thorough research, consult with a financial advisor, and implement proper risk management strategies before entering any trade.
EURNOK - Potential Sell from Key Resistance ZoneOANDA:EURNOK is nearing a key resistance zone that has been a critical area for bearish reversals in the past. The current price action suggests sellers may regain control at this resistance level.
If bearish patterns appear, such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing candles, I anticipate a move toward 11.73160. Conversely, a break above this resistance could invalidate the bearish bias and indicate potential for further upside.
Traders should monitor this area closely and use proper risk management strategies. If you have any thoughts or agree with this analysis, I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments!
USDCAD - Buy Opportunity After Resistance BreakOANDA:USDCAD has broken above a critical resistance level and is aligning with bullish trend continuation by retesting this level as support. If the support holds, I expect a move upward toward 1.45300, aligning with the bullish trend.
Conversely, if the support is broken, the bullish outlook could weaken, paving the way for further declines.
Traders should monitor this zone closely for signs of buyer strength before taking long positions. Do you see this playing out similarly? Let’s discuss in the comments below!