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Supply and Demand

EURJPY BUY? 2nd Chance SaloonA bullish trend in EUR/JPY indicates that the euro is strengthening against the yen. This movement can be influenced by several factors: Economic Data: Positive economic indicators from the Eurozone, such as GDP growth or strong employment figures, can boost the euro. Interest Rate Differentials: If the European Central Bank (ECB) signals potential rate hikes while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its low rates, it can lead to a stronger euro against the yen. Market Sentiment: Increased risk appetite among investors may lead them to favor the euro, especially if they perceive the Eurozone economy as more stable or growing compared to Japan. Geopolitical Factors: Any political or economic developments in Japan that create uncertainty could weaken the yen, further supporting a bullish EUR/JPY trend.
Long
by MarshallJay
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout. From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk. 2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside. Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup. 3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs. The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms. 4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025) To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics: o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures): Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick) Point value of 1 future unit: $50 Point value of 1 option unit: $50 Expiration: December 27, 2024 Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760). o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024. The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760 This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures. o Risk Management: While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread. 5. Options Risk Profile Analysis The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration: Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration. Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move. For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets. 6. Trade Execution Plan Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout. Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point. 7. Risk Management Considerations Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages: Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread. No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market. Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups. This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
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CBOT:ZWH2025Education
by traddictiv
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Are we going to the moon?68300 was a very good resistance, as you can see, it broke and pulled back after several reactions📈 Strong front range We have to see how he reacts to it, if he reacts weakly, then we can resist Let's open 69177 positions and accept the risk that there is a possibility of return because it is worth it I recommend this for long position and other coins for short position BTC.D is trending upwards That's why the others COINS are better And pay attention to this, what is the trend of the BTC ⚠️ Do capital management to survive ⚠️
by parsa_xa
Bearish Momentum Holds Below 2738; Bullish Breakout Above 2739GOLD As long as the price remains below 2,738, a bearish trend is favored, potentially reaching 2,719 and 2,712, with an extension to 2,695 if downward momentum persists. However, a 4-hour or 1-hour candle close above 2,739 would signal a bullish shift, targeting 2,748 and 2,758, with a further breakout required to advance toward 2,775. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2738 Resistance Levels: 2748, 2758, 2775 Support Levels: 2719, 2709, 2695 Trend Outlook: Bearish while under 2738 Above 2739: Uptrend
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
1
US30 Holds Bearish Bias Below Key Resistance LevelsUS30 Technical Analysis As long as trades under 42450 will support a bearish trend to touch 42125and below that will get 41950 as well Stability above 42,125 may prompt a move toward 42,300 and 42,450; however, a bullish reversal requires a breakout above 42,590. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 42280 Resistance Levels: 42770, 42910, 43050 Support Levels: 42125, 41950, 41750 Trend Outlook: - Bearish by stability below 42450 - Bullish by stability above 42590 previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
AUD/JPY continue with the UptrendOn AUD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 100.610. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. GAP + Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
by Trader_Dale
Nifty 50 views as the ended 28/10/2024By the last Friday nifty has achieved a target reaching the monthly support zone. Positionally nifty weekly significant zone is far to near to be breached, in coming week. Naturally Nifty 50 attempted it with due deligence but in the end failed to achieve it clean. Bank Nifty the major component of Nifty 50, has all together a different structure monthly and weekly also. Also, it has a pending target of reaching an important monthly support. Conclusion: There were no surprises in both the indices as such, every thing was normal and within understanding levels.
NSE:NIFTY
by AMGO_Markets
XAU/USD 28 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 27 October 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling, but not yet confirming, the start of bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation. Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis/intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 24 October 2024. Yesterday's intraday expectation was not met, as price failed to target the weak internal high and instead printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This aligns with the H4 timeframe being in a pullback phase. As previously highlighted, price remains highly volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's softer stance. Price has since printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Currently, price is trading within a well-established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is reacting around the 50% equilibrium of the internal range and may also react at nested H4 and M15 supply levels before targeting the weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK