CADCHF - Bearish Setup at Key ResistanceThe CADCHF pair is currently trading near a significant supply zone, where prices have previously encountered strong resistance and reversed lower. This suggests a potential bearish scenario as sellers might regain control in this region.
A bearish confirmation, such as a rejection candlestick pattern (e.g., a bearish engulfing or long upper wick), would strengthen the case for further downside movement. If this scenario unfolds, the next target to monitor is around 0.63202, which aligns with a key support level.
Traders should wait for clear confirmation of selling pressure before entering short positions to ensure alignment with the broader market sentiment.
Supply and Demand
XAU/USD Longs from 2,696.000 back upMy analysis for GOLD this week focuses on the continuation of the strong bullish trend. GOLD has shown impulsive movement and reacted perfectly to the demand zone I marked out last week. This reaction led to a break of structure to the upside, further confirming the bullish direction.
Now, with new demand zones formed, I’ll be waiting for the price to retrace back to either the 1-hour or 3-hour demand zone before the next bullish rally. From there, I plan to buy up to the Asian high, which is positioned just above the nearest supply zone.
Confluences for GOLD Buys:
- Price reacted strongly off last week’s demand zone and remains bullish.
- Both the short-term and long-term trends are bullish.
- Price has broken structure to the upside again, confirming direction.
- An Asian high above needs to be taken, providing a clear target.
Note: If the price moves up first, I may consider a quick sell from the 1-hour supply zone. However, I’ll wait for additional confirmations before taking any counter-trend trades.
EUR/USD Longs from 1.02000 back upWhile the overall trend for EUR/USD (EU) remains bearish, the strong reaction from my marked demand zone last week has caused a Change of Character (CHOCH) to the upside. This indicates a temporary shift in momentum, and I plan to capitalize on this bullish move.
My strategy is to wait for a retracement back into the 8-hour demand zone below. Once the price taps into this zone while sweeping liquidity, I’ll look for lower time frame confirmations to enter buy positions.
However, if the price continues to move higher without retracing, I’ll consider potential sell opportunities from the key level at 1.04000.
Confluences for EU Buys:
- A CHOCH to the upside has temporarily shifted the trend.
- Significant liquidity to the upside in the form of equal highs and an imbalance that needs to be filled.
- A clean, unmitigated 8-hour demand zone remains below.
- The DXY aligns with this counter-trend idea.
- A pool of liquidity below is likely to be swept before price enters the point of interest (POI).
Note: If the price breaks structure further to the upside, I’ll identify a new demand zone. For now, my primary focus remains on the 8-hour demand zone below for buys and the 6-hour supply zone above for potential sells.
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Btcusd analysis"As shown in the chart, Bitcoin's potential scenarios are plotted in a four-hour time frame, and it is currently fluctuating within a range channel. Since Bitcoin's trend in the daily time frame is bullish, there is a higher probability of breaking the channel ceiling, making this the base scenario. If this happens, Bitcoin's trend in the daily time frame will remain bullish. In case of a pullback, you should enter with the confirmed strategy, aiming for the level of 106,000 as the first target. However, if it breaks the channel floor, Bitcoin's trend in the daily time frame will turn bearish, with the possibility of falling to the level of 50,000. Otherwise, we expect Bitcoin to continue moving within the channel according to the third scenario, allowing us to buy and sell at the ceiling and floor of the channel."
EURNZD: Potential Bounce from Key Resistance ZoneOANDA:EURNZD is approaching a significant resistance zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong selling pressure in the past. The current market structure indicates the potential for a reversal at this level if sellers regain control.
This resistance zone aligns with a critical supply area where price has shown hesitation before. If the price confirms rejection with bearish patterns such as wicks or bearish engulfing candles, I anticipate a move downward toward the 1.83972 level.
Let me know your thoughts on this analysis or if you have a different perspective!
AUDJPY: Potential Long from Key Support ZoneOANDA:AUDJPY is currently trading near a significant support zone which previously led to bullish reversals. The recent bearish move into this zone suggests a potential for buyers to step in and drive prices higher.
A bullish confirmation, such as rejection patterns, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the likelihood of a rebound. If buyers regain control, the price may rise toward the 96.650 level, where sellers could potentially re-emerge.
This setup aligns with a possible short-term recovery within the broader bearish trend. Traders should wait for confirmation of buying pressure before considering long positions.
GOLD - Potential Bearish Rejection at ResistanceGold is approaching a key resistance zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This area has the potential to act as a strong barrier, leading to a bearish pullback if sellers regain control.
A rejection at this resistance could push the price back toward the $2,698-$2,700 level. If this level holds, it may provide a base for buyers to attempt another rally.
However, a failure to hold above the $2,698 level could signal further bearish momentum, potentially targeting lower areas within the channel. Traders should watch for confirmation, such as bearish candlestick patterns or strong rejection wicks, at the resistance zone.
EURNZD - Potential Short from Resistance ZoneOANDA:EURNZD is currently approaching a significant supply zone near the 1.84500–1.85000 level. Historically, this area has acted as strong resistance, leading to bearish reversals. The recent bullish move into this zone suggests a potential for sellers to regain control and push prices lower.
A bearish confirmation, such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or long upper wicks, would support the likelihood of a reversal. If the scenario materializes, the price may head toward the 1.83150 level, where buyers might step in again.
This setup aligns with a potential short-term retracement within the broader market structure. Traders should wait for confirmation of selling pressure before considering short positions.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
All targets upside complete before the reversal! Not a bad week at all.
Gold playing nicely, using the levels well and enabling us to trade it down into the lower red box levels, then up again only to then capture the short into the circled region shared with everyone yesterday.
Now we have support below at the 2710 and resistance 2715 which is where we're seeing the small accumulation. We would rather wait here to see where it breaks, even though we have indications, it's late session and best practice is to let the weekly candle close before taking the next steps.
We'll be back on Sunday with the KOG Report and our view for the week ahead. Until then, wishing all our followers a great weekend.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2650 with targets above 2700✅, 2706✅ and above that 2716✅
Bearish on break of 2650 with targets below 2640 and below that 2635
RED BOXES:
Break above 2690 for 2700✅, 2703✅, 2706✅, 2710✅ and 2724✅ in extension of the move
Break below 2680 for 2667, 2665, 2655 and 2640 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
BTC Short OpportunityFollowing the initiation of a bearish fractal on the monthly Bitcoin chart, the weekly long liquidation has been triggered. I anticipate a price retracement within the identified regions. A new all-time high would be unexpected, but given Bitcoin's volatility, it's not entirely out of the question.
The daily chart has exhibited three instances of manipulative price action.
A NEW DAWN FOR BTC!Price reached a new high of $104,800 today. This new rise in demand sounds interesting as investors are looking forward to capitalizing on the opportunities yet to come. It’s a good thing we position ourselves to take advantage of the volatility that’s set to emerge in this coin. First target is $106k. A break above that signifies more bullish strength.
CCL LongWeekly SMA200 as support
Long 17.36
Stop 12.5
Target 30
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
BuyToOpen 2025 Jan Call spread C20/30
Limit 2.02
SellToOpen 2025 Jan Put P12.5 x2 (Delta -0.16)
Limit 1.02 x2
Cost "0", if price stays between 12.5 and 20, no loss.
Stop below 12.5, max loss about $2.0 x 200.
EURAUD - Potential Short from Resistance ZoneThe EURAUD pair is approaching a significant resistance zone. The current bullish momentum into this area may provide an opportunity for sellers to regain control.
A bearish confirmation, such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or signs of slowing momentum, would increase the likelihood of a pullback. If the resistance holds, the price could target the 1.66150 level.
Traders should monitor for confirmation of selling pressure before initiating short positions. This setup aligns with a potential corrective move within the broader market structure.
AUDJPY: Bullish Bounce Expected from Key Support ZoneOANDA:AUDJPY is approaching a significant demand zone, marked by prior bullish reactions and strong buyer interest. The current market structure suggests the potential for a reversal in this area if buyers regain control.
This demand zone aligns with a key support area. If price action confirms rejection with bullish patterns such as pin bars or engulfing candles, I anticipate a move upward toward the 96.910 level, representing a key resistance.
This setup aligns with the expectation of a trend continuation from support. Feel free to share your thoughts or additional insights in the comments!
USDJPY: Very Bearish SentimentUSDJPY had been consolidating significantly since mid-December, trading within a large horizontal range on a daily timeframe.
However, following the release of certain fundamental news, the currency pair appears to have a strong bearish outlook.
The breakout below a support line within the range suggests that a bearish accumulation phase has been completed.
This could lead to further declines, with attention now turning to the next support level at 154.4.
EURAUD at Key Resistance: Bearish Bounce ExpectedOANDA:EURAUD is trading near a significant resistance zone, characterized by historical price rejections and strong selling pressure. The current market structure indicates the potential for a reversal if sellers regain control at this level.
This resistance zone aligns with a key supply area, suggesting that bearish pressure may emerge. If price confirms rejection with bearish candlestick patterns or signs of exhaustion, I anticipate a move downward toward the 1.66105 level.
USDCAD at Key Resistance: Bearish Bounce ExpectedOANDA:USDCAD is approaching a significant resistance zone, marked by historical price rejections and strong seller activity in the past. The current market structure indicates the potential for a reversal in this area if price action confirms seller strength.
If the price confirms rejection from this resistance zone, I anticipate a move downward toward the 1.43925 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure
What are your thoughts on this analysis? Feel free to share any additional insights or alternative perspectives in the comments!
RNDR-EUR - January 2025: Reload/buy and Sell TPsNo financial advise. I would not recommend to trade in the actual zone.
Bullish sell TPs:
1) 18€
2) 24,5€
Potential bearish scenario and chance for a reload of your bags.
a) Weekly closes red
b) ..and also most of major alts close red
Reload/buy TPs:
1) 5,34€
2) 4,93€
3) 4,50€ (unlikely)
COINBASE:RNDREUR