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Supply and Demand

Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators. In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices. The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day. OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - which direction will the Canadian dollar go?The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within the range. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The upward movement of this currency pair will make its selling positions attractive. Canada has initiated efforts to mitigate the economic impacts of new U.S. tariffs. These measures include the creation of a critical minerals management unit and defense procurement activities. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that Canada would respond firmly and decisively if the U.S. imposes tariffs. Bloomberg reported that Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of American goods should the U.S. act first. Quebec’s Premier stated that no official announcements about retaliatory actions would be made until Trump’s plans are clearer, but no options are off the table. Ontario’s Premier added that any retaliatory measures against the U.S. must be stringent. Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, campaigned on promises such as imposing heavy import tariffs, tightening immigration policies, reducing regulations, and downsizing the government.However, the economy he is set to oversee may require a different approach from the policies implemented in 2017. Currently, the U.S. economy is growing at an above-average pace, unemployment is near full employment, and inflationary pressures remain significant. This suggests that the U.S. economy might not need fiscal stimulus measures like tax cuts. Furthermore, high asset valuations and rising bond yields could expose the economy to sharper corrections. When Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. economy was still recovering from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Policies such as tax cuts and import tariffs had varying impacts then. However, today, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, mortgage rates are near 7%, and government bond yields are close to 5%. These rising yields may reflect market concerns about inflation control and America’s fiscal discipline. In a recent Reuters survey, 25 out of 31 economists predicted that the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates by 0.25% at its January 29 meeting, while the remaining six expected rates to stay unchanged. Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to conclude in the first half of 2025. He noted that ending QT would require settlement balances to rise to a range of CAD 50-70 billion, up from the previous estimate of CAD 20-60 billion. Treasury bond purchases are set to commence in the last quarter of this year, initially in small volumes. Following the release of recent data, projections for real personal consumption expenditures in Q4 have risen from 3.3% to 3.7%, while real government spending growth for the same period increased from 2.9% to 3%. However, forecasts for real private domestic investment growth have been revised downward from -0.4% to -0.8%. In its updated forecast, Wells Fargo indicated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year by 0.25%, once in September and again in December. Previously, three rate cuts were anticipated for the year.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1Daily CLS, Key Level Daily OB , Model 1 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by Dave-Hunter
7
Weekly CLS, Key Level Order block, Model 1Weekly CLS, Key Level Order block, Model 1 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Long
by Dave-Hunter
2
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/17/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21239.50 - PR Low: 21209.25 - NZ Spread: 67.75 No key scheduled economic events Inside print rotation back to 21000 - Retraced nearly 50% of Wednesday momentum breakout range - Advertising daily pivot high off 216000 zone Session Open Stats (As of 1:25 AM 1/17) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 384.63 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 252K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Long
by mv3trader5
CAD/CHF 4H Timeframe AnalysisCAD/CHF 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, CAD/CHF is in an uptrend, having recently broken above the minor key resistance at 0.63300. Following this breakout, buyers initially stepped in, preparing for the continuation of the trend. However, the price only accumulated a large volume of buyers before reversing downward, breaking below the minor key level to hunt for stop-losses. This phase represents the manipulation phase within the liquidity zone. Now, the price is poised to move upward again, breaking above the key resistance to resume the buy trend. With liquidity formation complete, we aim to capitalize on the next breakout for trend continuation. Price Action Expectation: Wait for the price to break above the minor key resistance at 0.63400, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Plan to enter after the breakout for optimal trade positioning. Trade Setup Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry: 0.63400 (upon confirmation of the breakout above resistance) Stop Loss: 0.63080 (below the liquidity zone to avoid false breakouts) Take Profit: 0.64050 (targeting the next significant resistance level) This setup ensures a strategic approach, leveraging liquidity formation and trend continuation. Fundamental Outlook: Monitor Swiss economic indicators, as well as global risk sentiment, which tends to influence CHF strength as a safe-haven currency. The interplay between these factors could provide additional momentum for the continuation of the bullish trend. Risk Management: Maintain a 1:2+ risk-to-reward ratio to optimize potential returns. Position size should be calculated based on your account equity and risk tolerance. Closely monitor liquidity zones to avoid premature stop-outs. Trading involves substantial risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always seek guidance from a financial professional if you’re unsure about trading decisions.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
1
#1.) AEON → CL: $0.22 → 52wk-L: $0.16 / 52wk-H: $17.17 - Setup?AMEX:AEON AEON appeared on a custom TV scanner I created, here are somethings I believe are worth considering: - Avg Vol: 5.06m / 1/7 Vol: 48.30m - Public offering announced 1/5, crashing stock by 66% - (Offering close 1/7). - HUGE Volume in the last two days, just hit 52wk-L... - Penny stocks have been rocketing lately, this one is primed IMO.. - Accumulation has risen and held above recent dip while just above 52wk-L - (dip-7/15/24) - TF: D → VP-POC: $0.18 / TF: 5m → VP-POC: $0.19 / TF: 1m → VP-POC: $0.23 - According to Fintel – Shorts Available: 0 (Just info, not laying my neck on accuracy) S-Shot. - Avg Vol (30d): 5.06m – Today’s Vol: 48.30M. - It held $0.20 AH / Higher lows all day. – Nearly x8 daily volume / Bottom heavy VP. Overall: Stock is really beat down off of the public offering. I don’t see it going much lower based on the chart review, 52wk-L, and PA strength viewed on 1/7/25. The last two days carry the largest volume candles currently printed on the daily chart. This is a risk play obviously being pharma – but overall, when I’m looking for strength, I like to see large orders confirm my thesis. If this gets attention, then I see some real movement. Price is @ ½ of companies offering price – Moving quickly to $0.50 would put it on even more radars. Looks good AHs... Cheers 🍾
AMEX:AEONLong
by Kase22
8
Short - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this levelyou are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps you become a better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Short
by Dave-Hunter
3
BTC1! short idea with open gap fill and catching a quick longAs you might know, open gaps have a fill-rate of 90-95%. Additionally the open CME-gap (1W-basis) has much confluence with important technical levels for support and it lies in the middle of two zones where enormous amounts of USDT-inflows came into the market. 1. the 2024-range (Q1 - Q3) 2. the 2025-range (Q1 at least) Where the new neckline also is, the new support that became resistance appeared. It might also be a good strike for smart money to know that above the biggest orderblock of 2024 support has developed more strength and consequence. So why you don't give it a try to retest it? Here a maximum of buying pressure should lead to a strong bounce of BTCUSD towards a new alltime-high, if and as long as global liquidity rises again. But if not, at least inflation should do half of the bullish job for BTCUSD and a "sideways up" would be my - historically BIASed - expectation. It begins with a shorter short. In the end it might be a very, very quick longer long because of my expectation of rising buying pressure with huge volume delta for the bulls below 78k.
CME:BTC1!
by BossmodeInvestments
2
Short - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this level Short - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this level you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Short
by Dave-Hunter
5
AUDNZD Testing Resistance – Pullback Toward 1.1069 ExpectedAUDNZD is at a significant supply zone, marked by historical price rejections and strong selling pressure in the past. This zone has previously acted as a turning point, where sellers regained control and drove prices lower. The recent bullish rally has brought the price into this critical resistance area. Given the strength of this supply zone, there is a high probability of a bearish reversal if price action confirms rejection (e.g., bearish engulfing candles or upper wicks signaling selling pressure). I anticipate a bearish move toward the 1.1069 level, which represents a logical target for this setup. This setup aligns with the expectation of a potential correction within the broader market context.
Short
by DanieIM
1
Bottom Wedge USD/JPY - Which side will we see a breakout from ? -> Following FX:USDJPY downfall, price almost fell two percent this week. -> Bottom wedge was identified, which side it will break down to is still to be determined. Either way, an upside breakout can justify a scalp on 5-15 min timeframe a after consecutive bull bars are seem. Looking at the other side of the coin, a downside breakout would lead to a third leg down a indicate that the bear trend is soon halting or reversing. -> Most importantly, be cautious and patient with such trades, wait for breakout and follow through buying- or selling- to place trade. Remember that USD/JPY is reversing with a strong Yen and odds favour bears, as seen with bear flag on this 4h chart: Will the bear flag will get a secong leg and gain downside momentum?, or will we have a failed trading range breakout with a short term reversal around the 156.000 area is still to be determined. B setup Peace
by Baudoouin
NASDAQ WILL GO HIGHER, BUY AFTER PULLBACKFundamentals Recent economic data indicates mixed sentiments in the tech sector, with rising interest rates and concerns about valuations weighing on growth stocks. However, optimism surrounds potential technological advancements, such as AI and renewable energy sectors, driving long-term bullish expectations. Technicals After the bullish spike following the CPI inflation reading, the price is expected to retrace to the 20,865–20,968 range, which corresponds to two key Fibonacci levels. The 20,968 level also aligns with a demand zone. Entry levels are: 20,865 (conservative) or more aggressive at 20,968. Before entering long, it is important to see confirmation of bullish pressure... In terms of target, I think we will see new highs, but take profit partially and sistematically along the way.. Follow me to receive updates on this idea, including confirmations for entries, stop losses, and profit targets. Don’t miss out—hit that follow button now!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by zito82
POSSIBLE BEARISH MOVEIn this analysis we are analyzing 2H time frame for gold. Today I'm looking and expecting downside move from the key level (2680 = 2690). Because as we know that market external trend was bearish and also price rejected 2700 area which is act like a resistance. Let's see what happen. Just wait for price when it comes into our zone take confirmation and trigger your trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. #GOLD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal