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Supply and Demand

Dairy Market Update (2.21.25)U.S. Milk Production and Supply Adjustments The USDA has revised its U.S. milk production forecast for 2025 downward to 229.2 billion pounds, reflecting a 0.5-billion-pound reduction from previous estimates. This adjustment is due to a slower-than-expected increase in milk output per cow and ongoing reductions in the national dairy herd. Rising feed costs and tight margins have contributed to a more cautious expansion strategy among dairy producers. Cheese and Butter Price Forecasts The updated WASDE report projects mixed price movements across major dairy products: Cheese prices CME:CSC1! are expected to average $1.79 per pound, down slightly due to softer domestic demand and increased competition from imports. Butter prices NZX:BTR1! are forecasted at $2.54 per pound, reflecting strong consumer demand and tighter domestic inventories. Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and whey prices remain stable, with minor adjustments driven by export trends and global production levels. U.S. Dairy Exports and Global Trade Trends The U.S. dairy export outlook has softened slightly, with total dairy exports projected at 4.9 billion pounds in 2025, reflecting weaker demand from key international markets. China’s dairy imports are expected to remain subdued due to high domestic milk powder inventories and slower economic growth. Mexico continues to be a strong buyer of U.S. dairy products, particularly cheese and NFDM, supporting export stability. The European Union and New Zealand remain competitive in global dairy markets, challenging U.S. pricing power in certain categories. Price Outlook and Market Implications The all-milk price forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to $19.85 per hundredweight (cwt), reflecting a $0.25 decline from prior estimates. Global dairy market volatility, particularly in trade-sensitive products like whey and NFDM, could influence price movements in the coming months. Potential shifts in U.S. farm policy and trade agreements may also impact dairy market dynamics, as discussions on export incentives and tariff adjustments continue. Investment Considerations For traders and investors, the dairy market presents multiple areas of interest: • Futures and Options Trading: The volatility in milk and butter prices could create opportunities in dairy futures markets. • Agribusiness and Processing Stocks: Companies involved in dairy production, processing, and exports may see earnings fluctuations based on price and trade developments. • Feed and Input Costs: Rising feed costs could pressure dairy farm margins, affecting profitability and long-term supply trends. ECONOMICS:WWDRPI
CME:DC1!
by juliakhandoshko
Soybean Market Outlook (2.21.25)The global soybean market is navigating a period of shifting supply and demand dynamics, driven by increased U.S. stock levels and production adjustments in key South American countries. Let’s take a look at notable revisions in production estimates, trade flows, and pricing trends that will shape the market in the coming months. U.S. Soybean Stocks and Production Adjustments The USDA has increased its forecast for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 315 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the previous estimate. This revision is largely due to lower domestic crush projections, reflecting reduced demand from the U.S. processing sector. Total production remains at 4.16 billion bushels, with no changes to yield estimates at 50.6 bushels per acre. South American Crop Revisions and Global Supply Impact In South America, weather conditions have led to downward adjustments in soybean production forecasts. Argentina's soybean output is now projected at 50 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a 1.5 MMT reduction from last month due to persistent dryness affecting key growing regions. In contrast, Brazil's soybean production remains at 157 MMT, as strong early-season yields have offset localized drought concerns. These supply adjustments influence global export flows, with Brazil expected to maintain its dominant position in the market despite Argentina's production decline. Trade and Demand Dynamics Global soybean trade projections remain largely stable, with U.S. exports holding at 1.76 billion bushels. Brazil is set to continue leading global soybean exports, supported by a favorable exchange rate and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, Chinese soybean imports are forecasted at 102 MMT, consistent with previous estimates, as demand for animal feed and soybean meal remains strong. Price Outlook and Market Implications Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are trading near $11.90 per bushel, reflecting market concerns over South American weather conditions and export competition. The average farm price for U.S. soybeans is projected at $12.55 per bushel, unchanged from previous estimates. Investment Considerations With rising U.S. stock levels and weather-driven supply concerns in South America, the soybean market presents opportunities for traders and investors. Key areas to watch include: • Futures and Options Strategies: Volatility in global production may create trading opportunities in soybean futures CBOT:ZS1! . • Agricultural Input Stocks: Companies involved in fertilizers and crop protection may benefit from shifting planting conditions. • Export Competitiveness: U.S. soybean exports face continued pressure from Brazil’s pricing advantages, making trade policy and currency movements critical factors.
CAPITALCOM:SOYBEAN
by juliakhandoshko
ADCB Long setup ADCB (Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank) – 30-Minute Chart Analysis - The price is currently in an overall uptrend forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). - After a possible short-term correction - The price is recently tested a key demand zone around 11.58 - 11.44 and touching the upward trend line which acts as a resistance level. Trade Setup - **Entry:** at **11.82 - 11.92**. - **Stop Loss:** (Below 11.40) - **Target:** 12.60 (next supply zone ) - **Risk-Reward Ratio:** ~1:3
ADX:ADCBLong
by MESHANL
High RR Gold Trade Setup | H1 AnalysisThis is a smart risk-reward setup on Gold (XAUUSD) using structural breaks and liquidity zones. We see multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHOCH) formations indicating shifts in trend sentiment. Recent CHOCH at resistance suggests a potential continuation lower before a bullish move. A strong demand zone aligns with the 2900 psychological level, reinforced by previous rejections and fair value gaps. Buyers are expected to step in around this area. \A buy setup above 2900 with a stop below liquidity pockets and targets near 2945–2950 aligns with institutional footprints. Weak highs indicate upside inefficiencies yet to be filled. The setup is backed by key order blocks, Fibonacci retracement zones, and EMA support, providing a solid case for a high-probability long position. #XAUUSD #GoldLong #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #Liquidity #FearValueGap
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by taimur-shahzad
THOUGHTS ON EUR/USDEUR/USD 15M - Looking here we are seeing price distribute and show signs of bearishness trading us lower, giving us the suggestion that price is ready to put in the corrective wave and clear some inefficiency. Once price breaks the last protected low we can safely look to take part in this market, if however price comes to trade into the Supply Zone above before breaking the last low I may be tempted. As it would be allowing us to enter in on this market with a very refined entry, should price trade in and give us the rejection we want I may look to go short from here, setting my SL above the zone itself and my TP just above the last higher timeframe low. I am expecting longer term bullishness for this pair so I feel this correction will be short lived and be done to clear any remaining orders before taking us higher so its important we apply safety measures with running trades.
Short
by Lukegforex
XAU/USD 21 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias. Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955 Alternative scenario: Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias. Price is now trading within an established internal range. You will note my comments in yesterday's analysis whereby I mentioned that as we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS. This scenario seems underway, price has targeted strong internal low, however, price has, thus far, not been able to close below. Intraday Expectation: Technically price should target weak internal high priced at 2,954.955, however, my alternative scenario remains live. Alternative scenario: As we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
USD/CHF PRICE IS SETTING UPUSD/CHF 30M - Price seems to be setting itself up nicely for a move to the upside, we are currently seeing price accumulate. As we know this is when price removes Supply from the market and loads up on Demand. This should give us the volume we want to the upside to give us the confirmation needed to enter in on long positions, I want to see a break in the previous highs within this accumulation before we look to go long. Once we have those breaks in highs we can then begin to look for an entry, we will be able to get a refined entry as we will look inside the impulsive wave that breaks the previous highs for areas of interest. Once we have found an area of interest to enter in from, we simply wait for price to trade down and into it, reject well and show signs of bullish structure, this deeming us a valid entry on this market.
Long
by Lukegforex
1
EURNZD - Sell Opportunity After Support BreakOANDA:EURNZD has broken below a key support zone and is now retesting it, which may act as new resistance, aligning with a potential bearish continuation. If sellers confirm resistance at this level, the price is likely to move downward toward the 1.80600 level, which represents a logical target for this setup. Conversely, a failure to hold resistance could suggest a potential bullish shift. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or increased selling volume, before considering short positions. Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
Short
by DanieIM
Alikze »» W | Formation of the Double Bottom pattern - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Formation of a Double Bottom pattern in a descending channel 📣 BINANCE:WUSDT It is moving in a descending channel on the daily time frame. 🟢 In the Buyer Zone, by forming a Double Bottom and a candlestick pattern, it can continue its growth in the first step to the first supply zone. 🟢 If an inverted head and shoulders pattern is formed in the supply zone, it can continue its upward trend to the next supply zone. 🟢 Therefore, if the Buyer Zone is maintained, an upward trend in the form of a three-wave up to the 40 cent range is expected. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea 💡 with a LIKE 👍 and COMMENT 💬 if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email 📧 in the future. Thanks for your continued support.🙏 Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Long
by alikze
3
NZDUSD Ready for a Bullish MoveHello Traders In This Chart NZDUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NZDUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NZDUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000