Supply and Demand
GOLD - Potential Bullish Break & Retest SetupGold is currently trading above the $2,700 level, which previously acted as resistance and could now serve as support. If the price pulls back and buyers defend this level, it could confirm bullish momentum, leading to a continuation toward the next target at $2,712. However, failure to hold above the zone may invalidate this setup and signal potential bearish pressure.
This scenario aligns with the broader ascending channel structure, suggesting the potential for further upside if key support holds.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT
In last week’s KOG Report we said for the first half of the week we will be looking for the price to attempt the low-level support 2625-30 to complete the move from the week before which we achieved. We wanted this level to give us the bounce upside for the long, which was almost to the pip, hitting our target upside for another short completing the bearish targets.
We then updated traders with the long trade before NFP which we traded level to level until we released the NFP KOG Report on Friday. For this report we gave the levels of interest and our plan, and although we didn’t manage to capture the exact level for the long, some traders managed to get in on the move hitting the target on the nose. It’s at that red box level we then shorted again to close the week.
What a week in Camelot, not only a point to point moves across the week on Gold but we completed a whopping 22 targets across the other pairs we trade and analyse.
Well done to the community and traders.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we have the key levels above 2700 and above that 2710, which could be possible targets for bulls to attempt during the course of the week. Below, we have the key levels of 2665 and the key level 2650-55 which will be this week’s bullish above bias level. Ideally, on open we want to see a brief test of that high, if rejected we would like to see this come back down to complete the move downside from Fridays’ NFP. It’s these lower levels that need to be monitored, the 2665 region which is where if we want to go up, we don’t want to see a break below and below that, then the extension of the move into the 2645-50 region.
We’re a little too high to attempt the long and we’re also holding protected shorts from above, so a progressive move down would suit before then finding a base to attempt that long unless Excalibur says otherwise.
At present, we can not get to carried away with the long-term direction, a visit into 2700 with a strong break above 2720 is needed for this to continue the move upside, while a break below the 2640-45 region is needed for this to confirm the move further downside. It’s still possible we continue this range until a further breakout so for that reason we’ll play it intra-day for now following our trusted algo and additional tools we have in place.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2650 with targets above 2700, 2706 and above that 2716
Bearish on break of 2650 with targets below 2640 and below that 2635
RED BOXES:
Break above 2690 for 2700, 2703, 2706, 2710 and 2724 in extension of the move
Break below 2680 for 2667, 2665, 2655 and 2640 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Potential Breakout Above Key Resistance LevelGold (XAU/USD) is currently trading within a well-defined range, with key support at $2,663 and resistance near $2,698. The pair has shown strong bullish momentum, supported by moving averages crossing upwards and RSI staying above 50, indicating potential further upside.
On the daily chart, we observe a consolidation pattern forming a possible ascending triangle. This setup suggests a breakout could occur above the $2,698 resistance zone, targeting $2,800 as the next significant level. The MACD histogram also shows increasing bullish divergence, adding strength to the upward bias.
However, a rejection at resistance could push XAU/USD back to the $2,665 support zone. If this level fails, further declines toward $2,580 may follow.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $2,798, $2,700
Support: $2,663, $2,670
Potential Trading Strategy:
Long position: Enter above $2,663_65 with a target of $2,700 and a stop loss below $2,655.
Stay alert for high-impact news that could influence the market, such as U.S. economic data releases or Federal Reserve comments, which often affect gold prices
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AUD/JPY - Overbought levels short term sellHi guys we are looking into the AUD/JPY with a potential sell on the 1H time frame it reached very high levels of Overbought on RSI indicator, so we are following with a correction
Entry: 97.684
Target: 96.900
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
CADCHF – Potential Short Opportunity on RetestCADCHF has broken below a key support zone, indicating a shift in momentum to the downside. This zone previously acted as support and may now turn into resistance, aligning with the break-and-retest strategy.
A bearish confirmation, such as rejection candles, a bearish engulfing pattern, or slowing bullish momentum, would strengthen the case for continued downside. Should this scenario play out, the next target for sellers would be around the 0.63387 level.
Traders should remain patient and wait for the price to revisit the resistance zone and provide clear rejection signals before considering short positions.
XAU/USD 16 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Weekly and Daily TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Recent Intraday expectation was not met with price failing to target weak internal low, by printing a bullish iBOS.
It would be noteworthy to remember that H4 and Daily TF internal structure is bullish.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price seems to be targeting weak internal high, which, in my view, is premature, however, I will remain structured in my approach. At the time of preparing analysis M15 candle remains open.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has yet to trade in to discount of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone. Expectation is for price to target weak internal high, priced at 2,702.260
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
ETH ANALYSIS (4H)ETH is currently in a pullback within its internal structure and remains bearish in its substructure.
The liquidity above the chart has been swept, and a significant order block has been cleared. After this cleanup, the price is now attempting to move toward lower zones, feeding on strong order blocks. If the liquidity pool aligns in the opposite direction, it may sweep that as well.
It is expected that Ethereum might bounce back upwards from the Support 1 level or after a liquidity hunt around that area.
Targets are marked on the chart. If it consolidates above the red zone, Ethereum could turn bullish. Let's analyze it step by step.
Closing a daily candle below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
invalidation level:2978
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
GBP/USD 4H Timeframe AnalysisGBP/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend Analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe, GBP/USD is in a downtrend, breaking below the previous key support at 1.2300, which is now acting as minor resistance. A bearish engulfing candle followed the break, signaling strong selling momentum.
The price has not yet reached the next support level, as we expect a liquidity hunt to occur above the minor key resistance at 1.2300. This would involve a temporary break above this level, gathering liquidity from stop-loss orders, before the downtrend resumes.
Recent UK GDP m/m data, with an actual of 0.1% versus a forecast of 0.2%, highlights weaker-than-expected economic growth, adding to the bearish sentiment for GBP.
Meanwhile, US economic indicators, including Core Retail Sales m/m (forecast: 0.5%, previous: 0.2%), Retail Sales m/m (forecast: 0.6%, previous: 0.7%), and Unemployment Claims (forecast: 210K, previous: 201K), demonstrate resilience in the US economy. This divergence strengthens the USD against the GBP.
Price Action Expectation:
Our objective is to wait for the price to break above the minor resistance at 1.2300, confirming the liquidity hunt.
Observe for a bearish reversal after the liquidity hunt, targeting a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1.22700.
Once the support breaks, expect the price to continue its downtrend toward the next significant support zone.
Trade Setup
Trade Type: Sell Stop
Entry: 1.22700 (upon confirmation of the break below resistance-turned-support)
Stop Loss: 1.23440 (above the liquidity zone to avoid false breakouts)
Take Profit: 1.20730 (targeting the next significant support level)
This setup requires patience and discipline, ensuring the liquidity hunt and subsequent price action align with the bearish outlook..
Fundamental Outlook:
Recent economic data highlights divergence between the UK and US economies, with the UK’s GDP m/m showing sluggish growth at 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%, previous: -0.1%) pressuring the pound, while the US economy displays strength with Core Retail Sales m/m forecasted at 0.5% (previous: 0.2%), Retail Sales m/m at 0.6% (previous: 0.7%), and Unemployment Claims expected at 210K (previous: 201K), showcasing robust consumer activity and a stable labor market, bolstering the dollar.
Risk Management
Maintain a 1:2+ risk-to-reward ratio to optimize outcomes.
Position size should align with your account equity for effective risk management.
Monitor liquidity zones closely to avoid premature stop-outs.
Trading involves significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Always seek advice from a financial professional if unsure about trading decisions.
USDJPY – Break & Retest Short SetupThe USDJPY pair has recently broken below a key support level. This area could potentially act as resistance, presenting a classic break-and-retest scenario.
A bearish confirmation, such as rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or strong selling pressure, would validate the potential for a short setup. If sellers step in at this level, the next downside target could be the 154.537 zone.
Traders should monitor the retest closely for clear signs of rejection before committing to short positions.
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top down analysis done...
HTF direction is based on a AB=CD correction
watching below dec' 2024 low for a sweep of liquidity and then we can resume uptrend or we extend down into the weekly fvg before a reversal pattern shows...but first we need to sweep below dec' 2024 low before anything can be determined.
EURGBP Testing Resistance – Pullback Toward 0.8407 ExpectedThe EURGBP pair is approaching a key resistance zone, where sellers are likely to step in. The current structure suggests a potential rejection at this level, with the price expected to pull back toward the 0.8407 level, which represents a logical target for this setup.
This setup aligns with the idea of a short-term correction from resistance, offering a potential short opportunity if rejection is confirmed.
APPLE - Bullish Setup at Channel SupportApple stock has recently rejected a significant support zone, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This rejection was accompanied by a strong bullish candlestick, signaling renewed buying momentum. The price is now positioned for a potential move toward the $250.00 level.
This setup suggests further bullish continuation as long as the support zone holds. Traders may look for additional signs of buying strength as the price approaches higher levels.
XAUUSD S/R Levels And 4 Trades.There are 4 possible scenarios for today.
Trade 1 Buys : if 30 min candle closes above 2701 than Buy with Target @ 2710.
Trade 2 Sells : if 30 min candle rejects 2700 than Sell with Target @ 2792.
Trade 3 Buys : if 30 min candle rejects 2793 than Buy with Target @ 2700.
Trade 4 Sells : if 30 min candle closes below 2691 than Sell with Target @ 2680.