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Supply and Demand

XAU/USD 13 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: Yesterday's intraday analysis played out with price targeting weak internal low at priced 2,700.810. Price has just printed a further bearish iBOS. Following bearish iBOS we expect a pullback. Current CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. We are now trading within an internal high and fractal low. You will note internal range has been significantly narrowed, however, price could print lower which would extend the depth of the internal range Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to indicate pullback initiation by printing a bullish CHoCH. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold: AnalysisHello Traders, We are around a volume POC and we might see some problem at going further. Scalpers could take short trades with LTF Confirmations, Intraday (week) Traders could take long trades after breaking the white line regarding the 2h chart. Longer-term traders could wait for break out of the zone confirmed by 4h chart. Remember that Trump presidency could affect the geopolitical analysis including giving an end to Russian illegal invasion of Ukraine that make capitals out of gold heading to Stocks, however it may have effects on Longer-term traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AliSignals
Gold Mixed Feelings (Long or Short)Gold prices have been fluctuating within a range, showing a neutral trend. The price opened with a positive gap, rising from $2633 to $2676, and then corrected slightly to $2666. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing support at $2671, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the 50 level, indicating a potential for further recovery. For Market sentiment Gold buyers are still active, with the price attempting to resume its recovery above the monthly highs of $2726. Key Levels: Resistance is seen at $2726 and $2750, while support levels are at $2671 and $2650. Overall, the market is showing mixed signals, with both bullish and bearish factors at play. Keeping an eye on these key levels and indicators can help you make informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by produzee
XAUUSD - gold will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If it returns to the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zone. 1. UBS Gold Forecast: UBS has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900. This prediction is based on factors such as the rising U.S. debt, strong demand from central banks, and declining interest rates. The institution also anticipates that U.S. inflation will decrease to 3% by the end of 2024, 2.6% by the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. These figures are significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting that persistent inflation may pose a significant obstacle to the Fed’s efforts to control it. 2. U.S. CPI Report: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November highlighted the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, the details of the report appeared somewhat reassuring. CIBC Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% in its December meeting, though subsequent rate cuts may be delayed due to the economy’s continued growth. 3. Ray Dalio on Gold: Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, referred to Bitcoin as a hard asset and stated that he prefers Bitcoin and gold over debt-based assets. He expressed concerns about a potential global debt crisis and emphasized the importance of shifting investments toward hard assets. Dalio pointed to unprecedented levels of debt in major countries such as the U.S. and China, deeming these debt levels unsustainable.Speaking at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi, he remarked, “It is impossible for these countries to avoid a debt crisis in the coming years, which will likely lead to a significant depreciation of their currencies.” 4. Dalio’s Evolving Stance on Bitcoin: Previously, Dalio believed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would not achieve the success many had hoped for. However, in recent years, he has become a prominent advocate of Bitcoin. In 2022, Dalio suggested allocating up to 2% of an investment portfolio to Bitcoin and gold as a reasonable strategy to combat inflation. He also reiterated his preference for gold over Bitcoin while emphasizing the importance of portfolio diversification. 5. Peter Schiff’s Warning on Bitcoin: Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has warned that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could have negative consequences. On December 9, Schiff posted on the social media platform X, suggesting that the Biden administration should sell all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government before leaving office. He stated, “This move would not only help reduce the 2024 budget deficit but also put an end to all the nonsense about establishing a ‘strategic reserve’ of Bitcoin, which is detrimental.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. 1. U.S. Budget Deficit: The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023. 2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies: BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar. 3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates: On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity. 4. Remarks by SNB President: Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness. 5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value: The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
Technical Analysis of the Chart: Gold Spot/USD (XAU/USD)The provided chart shows a 1-hour timeframe of Gold Spot/USD (XAU/USD). Here's a detailed breakdown of the technical analysis with bullish and bearish scenarios, as well as potential entry and exit points: 1. Key Levels Identified Resistance Levels (Red Lines): $2,725.84 (Major resistance zone) $2,703.95 (Immediate resistance) Support Levels (Green Zones): $2,680.08 (Immediate support) $2,661.07 (Critical support zone) $2,624.09 (Major support zone) Volume Clusters: Large buy/sell volumes visible around $2,703.95 and $2,688.01, suggesting strong participation in these areas. Delta Volume: Highlighted delta volume of 169.12% at $2,688.01, indicating heavy bearish selling pressure at this level. 2. Indicators Observed Trend Indicators: Price is interacting with a downward sloping EMA/MA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The green zone below suggests a strong support base around $2,661.07. Volume and Order Flow: Selling pressure has increased recently, visible with a large red cluster around $2,703.95. Buy volumes near $2,680.08 could indicate a potential accumulation zone. Price Action: A lower high formation after touching $2,703.95, signaling bearish sentiment. However, bullish wicks near the $2,680.08 zone suggest buyers are defending this level. 3. Bullish Scenario Potential for Upside Movement Triggers for Upside: A break and sustained close above the immediate resistance at $2,703.95 could signal bullish momentum. Continuation beyond $2,725.84 would confirm a broader bullish breakout. Entry Point: Aggressive Entry: Above $2,703.95 with confirmation via a bullish candle close. Conservative Entry: After a retest of $2,703.95 and a bounce higher. Target Levels: First Target: $2,715 - $2,725 (key resistance zone). Second Target: $2,740, a psychological resistance level. Stop Loss: Below the $2,680.08 support to protect against fakeouts. 4. Bearish Scenario Potential for Downside Movement Triggers for Downside: Failure to hold $2,680.08 support will open the door for further declines. A breakdown below $2,661.07 would signal increased bearish momentum. Entry Point: Aggressive Entry: Below $2,680.08 after a bearish candle close. Conservative Entry: On a retest of $2,680.08 as resistance after the breakdown. Target Levels: First Target: $2,661.07 (next support level). Second Target: $2,624.09, a major support zone. Stop Loss: Above the $2,688.01 zone to avoid invalidation from quick reversals. 5. Probable Scenarios Bullish Continuation: If price holds above $2,680.08, accumulation may occur, pushing price toward $2,703.95 or higher. Bearish Continuation: If price breaks below $2,680.08, selling could intensify, targeting $2,661.07 and $2,624.09. 6. Trading Plan: For Bulls: Look for signs of strength around $2,680.08, such as bullish engulfing candles or higher lows. Focus on entering above $2,703.95 for a continuation to $2,725 and beyond. For Bears: Watch for rejection candles at $2,703.95 or a breakdown below $2,680.08. Target the $2,661.07 level and trail profits if selling accelerates. 7. Conclusion The $2,680.08 level acts as the battleground between bulls and bears. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering, keeping stop losses tight to manage risk.
FX:XAUUSD
by ProspireWealth
GBPAUD - Employment in Australia is at good levels!The GBPAUD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continuing to move in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to rise to the supply zone. Within the supply zone can look for GBPAUD sell positions. 1. Renewable Energy in the UK: British ministers are preparing for the largest renewable energy subsidy auction in the country’s history to achieve the challenging goal of generating clean electricity by 2030. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, is set to launch the “2030 Clean Electricity Action Plan” today, aiming to decarbonize the power system by the end of the decade. A recent auction secured funding for 131 clean energy projects, guaranteeing 9.6 gigawatts of energy capacity, enough to power 11 million homes. Government officials plan to hold the largest auction to date by 2025 to meet the 2030 target of at least 95% low-carbon electricity. 2. Trump’s Proposed Tariffs: According to a Reuters survey, most economists believe that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have minimal impact on the UK economy. The survey revealed that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025, with reductions probably occurring quarterly at 25 basis points each. Additionally, all 71 economists surveyed predicted that the central bank would hold the interest rate steady at 4.75% during its December 19 meeting. 3. Challenges in AI Oversight: The UK is facing challenges in its efforts to expand global oversight of artificial intelligence. The country aims to strengthen its “Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute” (AISI) and solidify its position as a leading institution in researching AI risks. However, plans to open a new office in San Francisco have been delayed due to elections in the US and the UK, as well as hiring challenges. 4. London’s IPO Market Decline: The London Stock Exchange, once a leading and prestigious center for initial public offerings (IPOs), has now fallen to 20th place among global markets, recording none of the top 100 IPOs in 2024. Markets like Oman, Malaysia, and Luxembourg have outperformed London in attracting IPO capital. The outflow of companies from the London Stock Exchange has also risen, exacerbated by 41 consecutive months of capital outflow from UK equity funds, increasing pressure on market brokers to merge or sell. 5. Australia’s Unemployment Rate: Australia’s unemployment rate in November dropped to its lowest level in eight months, while employment continued its strong growth trend. This surprising strength led markets to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut in February, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unexpected dovish shift that hinted at potential monetary easing. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% in October to 3.9% in November, the lowest since March. Analysts had expected unemployment to rise to 4.2%. The participation rate declined from 67.1% to 67.0%. Net employment in November increased by 35,600 compared to a revised figure of 12,200 in October, exceeding market expectations of a 25,000-job gain, driven largely by full-time employment growth.
Short
by Ali_PSND
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/13/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21752.50 - PR Low: 21716.75 - NZ Spread: 79.75 No key scheduled economic events Strong session break gap up (details below) - Maintaining week range in ATHs - Index contract rollover week ahead Session Open Stats (As of 1:35 AM 12/13) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 12/13 +0.42% (open < 21640) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 269.29 - Volume: 31K - Open Int: 268K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 13.12.2024On Thursday, Nifty opened negative, attempting a recovery with a high of 24675.25, but succumbed to selling pressure, hitting a low of 24527.95. It closed at 24548.70, losing 93 points over the previous close. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains sideways, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) stays positive. Demand/Support Zones Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 24330.20 - 24368.30 Far Demand/Support Zone (30m): 24140 - 24187.05 Far Demand/Support Zone (75m): 23447.15 - 23578.60 Supply/Resistance Zones Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 24772.60 - 24857.75 Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24567.65 - 25234.05 (Tested) Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25739.20 - 25907.60 Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26151.40 - 26277.35 Resistance at 24700: Nifty is struggling to break this level. A failure to sustain above it may lead to a drop toward the 24370 zone or lower.
NSE:NIFTY
by PriteshPal