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Supply and Demand

Ethereum is gearing up for a new surgeThere’s a different kind of energy around ETH right now. Some say Ethereum is mirroring Bitcoin’s summer 2023 setup—ranging before a major breakout. 🔹 Strong base at $2100–$2200 → Every dip there feels like a gift. 🔹 Break & hold $3050–$3180 = All-time highs back in play. But will it be a parabolic run or a slow grind? 👇 1️⃣ Scenario 1: "COVID-style" breakout 🚀 Price rips past $3050–$3180, never looks back. Bulls absorb every dip aggressively, fueling a vertical move. A clean breakout could lead to new all-time highs this cycle. 2️⃣ Scenario 2: Retest & rally 📈 ETH first pushes toward $3050–$3180, but then returns to $2200 in March. This sets up a stronger foundation before an explosive April. 💡 My take: If ETH clears $3180 and holds, altseason momentum follows. Are you betting on an Ethereum explosion? Or do you see a different play? #Ethereum #Crypto #Altcoins #ETH #DeFi #Markets
Long
by Goldfinch_song
Corn Market Trends: Production in Argentina and Brazil (02.11)As the global corn market navigates supply constraints, the latest WASDE report highlights a downward revision in production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, key players in global exports. Adverse weather conditions, including prolonged heat and dryness in Argentina and planting delays in Brazil, have led to lower yield expectations, tightening global supply chains. Production Declines in Argentina and Brazil Argentina's corn production is now projected at 50 million metric tons, down from 51 million, reflecting yield losses due to drought conditions in key growing regions. Brazil's output is also revised downward to 126 million metric tons, mainly due to slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West region, which is critical for global supply. Impact on Global Corn Trade With reduced output from South America, global corn trade is seeing shifts. The WASDE report lowers projected corn exports from Brazil and Argentina, increasing reliance on alternative suppliers like the United States. However, U.S. exports are expected to face stiff competition from other global producers, including Ukraine and South Africa, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. U.S. Market and Price Dynamics The U.S. corn market remains stable, with production estimates unchanged at 14.87 billion bushels. However, ending stocks are revised downward to 1.54 billion bushels, reflecting stronger demand. The season-average farm price for U.S. corn is raised to $4.35 per bushel, reflecting tighter global supplies and steady domestic consumption. Key Market Implications • Rising Global Prices: Lower South American output could support higher corn prices worldwide, benefiting U.S. exports. • Shift in Import Demand: China, a major corn buyer, has reduced its import forecast, while Vietnam and Chile have increased theirs, signaling shifting trade patterns. • Weather Risks Persist: Continued adverse weather could further impact production estimates, making upcoming forecasts critical for market direction. Evolving weather conditions and policy changes could further impact global supply chains and price trends. TOCOM:TGCN1! BMFBOVESPA:CORN11
SKILLING:CORN
by juliakhandoshko
XAUUSD - Gold, no competitors!Gold is located in a 2 -hour timeframe, above EMA200 and EMA50 and is on its uptrend channel. Gold reform to the demand range will provide us with a good risk position for us. According to Tom Stevenson from Fidelity International, gold remains resilient despite challenges such as high interest rates and a strong dollar, continuing its march towards the $3,000 mark. However, while these fundamental factors persist, he believes that silver could be a more attractive investment option in the future. Stevenson notes that gold prices have increased tenfold since 2000 and have surged by over $1,000 since late 2023. Yet, he argues that fundamentally, gold should not be this expensive. He explains: “Historically, precious metals tend to underperform when interest rates rise. This is because, unlike bonds, stocks, cash, or real estate, gold does not generate income for investors. When other assets offer appealing returns, there is less incentive to hold onto what economist John Maynard Keynes once referred to as the ‘barbarous relic.’ This situation remains true today, yet gold continues to set new record highs.” Stevenson also believes that gold should benefit from a weaker dollar. He states: “Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, when other currencies strengthen against the dollar, their purchasing power for gold increases.Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, global demand for gold should decline. However, despite Trump’s policies reinforcing the dollar, gold remains on an upward trajectory.” He concludes that this signals something important to the market: “Gold’s performance suggests that not everything is as stable in the world as some may think. It indicates investor concerns, and history has shown that ignoring gold’s signals during times of uncertainty is a mistake.” Stevenson further emphasizes that central banks around the world are taking steps to hedge against risks. Since the onset of the Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions, countries like Russia, China, India, and Turkey have increased their gold purchases in an effort to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. He points out that gold has long been recognized as a valuable store of wealth and a diversification tool, as it carries no credit risk unlike paper currencies. According to him, central bank gold purchases in 2024 have surpassed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), has shared memes resurfacing old conspiracy theories regarding the status of the U.S. government’s gold reserves at Fort Knox. In response, a prominent politician seized this rare opportunity to call for greater transparency. Senator Rand Paul, a Republican representative from Kentucky, replied to one of Musk’s posts advocating for an annual audit of Fort Knox, writing, “Let’s do it.” So far, no evidence has surfaced to support Musk’s theory of missing gold, but the status of these reserves remains highly classified.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
$GOLD** OANDA:XAUUSD 🐂** I see that ** OANDA:XAUUSD is still staying bullish** and currently in the **demand area**, which could be a good entry point. However, certain conditions must be met before entering: - **The demand zone must hold** (not be broken to the downside). - **There must be a reversal** to ensure a safer entry. - **Observe what happens when the price enters the demand zone** – does it bounce or not? See you! Hopefully, ** TVC:GOLD ** moves according to our plan. 🚀✨
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Daffapouuse
1
XAU/USD 20 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per analysis and bias dated 10 February 2025. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Price to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation by printing bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH is denoted with a blue dotted line. Alternative scenario: Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per analysis and bias dated 11 February 2025. Price has printed a double bullish iBOS. You will note the most recent bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH despite price not tapping in to discount of 50% internal EQ or M15 demand zone. I will consider this a bullish iBOS due to time spent, however, I will continue to monitor. Intraday Expectation: Await for price indicate bearish pullback phase initiation and print bearish ChOCH. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Alternative scenario: As we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
US30 | Consolidation or Breakout? Key Levels to Watch! 📊 US30 (Dow Jones) Technical Analysis – February 20, 2025 📉📈 The US30 has been consolidating around the pivot zone (44,404 - 44,550), showing signs of a potential breakout. 🔹 Bullish Scenario: If the price stabilizes above 44,560, we can expect a continuation toward 44,756 and 44,926. A breakout above 45,000 could trigger further bullish momentum toward 45,323. 🔹 Bearish Scenario: A 4H close below 44,404 may signal weakness, with downside targets at 44,204 and 43,763. If 43,763 fails to hold, further decline toward 43,212 and 42,769 is possible. 📊 Key Levels to Watch: 🔹 Pivot Zone: 44404 - 44550 🔹 Resistance Levels: 44756 | 44926 | 45323 🔹 Support Levels: 44204 | 43763 | 43212 💬 Will US30 break 44,926 and rally higher, or will it pull back for a correction? Drop your predictions below! 👇🔥
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500 Holding Above ATH Zone–Breakout to 6168 or Pullback FirstS&P 500 (SPX500) Technical Analysis – February 20, 2025 The S&P 500 is consolidating above the ATH pivot zone (6,122 - 6,129), maintaining its bullish momentum within an ascending channel. The market is testing key levels, with buyers looking to push toward the next resistance zone. Technical Outlook Bullish Scenario: As long as the price holds above 6,122, the uptrend remains intact, targeting 6,168 and 6,224. A breakout above 6,224 could extend the rally toward 6,279. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 6,122, it could signal a correction toward the 6,102 pivot zone. A confirmed 4H close below 6,102 could lead to further declines toward 6,031 and 6,010. Key Levels to Watch 🔹 Pivot Zone (ATH): 6122 - 6129 🔹 Resistance Levels: 6168, 6,224, 6279 🔹 Support Levels: 6102, 6031, 6010 📈 Directional Bias: The market is expected to test 6,168, and as long as 6,122 holds, the bullish momentum remains valid. A break below 6,122 could lead to a short-term correction. 💬 Will S&P 500 continue its uptrend, or is a pullback coming? Drop your thoughts! 👇🔥
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
XAGUSD - How far will silver go?!Silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. If we see a correction, we can re-enter the silver purchase and accompany it to the ceiling of the ascending channel. Then we can sell within the specified supply zone with an appropriate reward for risk. In recent weeks, analysts have warned investors that gold prices breaking strongly above $2,800 suggest an overbought market.Therefore, it is not surprising to see some profit-taking finally occurring, especially since gold prices have surged by more than 11% since the beginning of the year. In contrast, silver has been notably underwhelming. Despite having strong bullish fundamentals, it has not experienced price increases on par with gold. Moreover, silver is more unpredictable, as its volatility is twice that of gold. In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken bold steps in trade and foreign relations. On Tuesday night, he announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. This decision comes at a time when global markets are grappling with heightened uncertainties, while hopes remain for an end to the Ukraine conflict. A 25% tariff on imported cars could significantly impact the global automotive industry, which has already been facing challenges. Trump has long criticized what he perceives as “unfair treatment” of American car exports in foreign markets. For instance, the European Union imposes a 10% tariff on imported cars—four times higher than the 2.5% tariff the U.S. levies on passenger vehicles. Similar tariffs are planned for pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, starting at 25% and set to increase significantly next year. However, Trump did not specify an exact timeline for implementation, stating that he wants to give pharmaceutical companies and chip manufacturers time to establish production facilities in the U.S. to avoid these tariffs. Beyond their immediate impact on specific industries, these tariffs could have long-term repercussions, such as higher business costs and rising prices for consumers. Trump also indicated that he expects major corporations to invest more in the U.S. soon, although he did not provide further details. Amid these trade developments, Trump has initiated negotiations with Russia, signaling a potential shift in diplomatic relations between the two nations. On Tuesday, senior officials from both countries took steps toward rebuilding ties, agreeing to collaborate on ending the Ukraine conflict, increasing financial investments, and restoring diplomatic relations. This meeting marks a significant shift following three years of U.S. efforts to isolate Moscow. Meanwhile, a massive influx of gold and silver has entered the U.S., as major banks and market players hedge against potential tariff threats. This surge in demand has driven up gold and silver prices, creating notable premiums in North American markets. However, a research firm argues that concerns over tariffs may be exaggerated. In a report by BCA Research, commodity analysts revealed they had taken a short position in silver as a contrarian play against tariff fears. They stated, “There is a strong likelihood that the U.S. will not impose import tariffs on gold, silver, platinum, or copper. There is no compelling economic or political motivation for the U.S. to take such action.” They added, “Since the recent surge in precious metal prices has been driven by tariff concerns, investors may react negatively to these price increases.” BCA also noted that if the U.S. were to impose tariffs on gold and silver, they would likely be introduced alongside steel and aluminum tariffs. Analysts concluded, “The silver market is relatively shallow and less liquid, making it more vulnerable to short-term price declines than gold. However, any short-term weakness presents an attractive opportunity for cyclical and structural positioning in this precious metal.”
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Ali_PSND
Global Wheat Market: February 2025 WASDE Report Insights (02.11)The February 2025 WASDE report presents updates on the global wheat market, reflecting shifts in production, trade, and pricing trends. The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 shows a slight increase in domestic use, leading to reduced ending stocks. Food use has been raised by 4 million bushels to 970 million, driven by a 2% increase in wheat flour grind in the October-December quarter. However, projected ending stocks have been lowered to 794 million bushels, though still 14% higher than the previous year. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. Global Supply and Trade Overview The global wheat supply for 2024/25 has increased slightly by 0.6 million metric tons, reaching 1,061.3 million tons. This adjustment is primarily due to higher production estimates in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, global trade is expected to decline by 3 million metric tons to 209 million, with significant reductions in exports from the European Union, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Notably, China’s wheat imports have been cut by 2.5 million tons to 8.0 million, marking the lowest level in five years. Last year, China was the leading global wheat importer, with 13.6 million tons. Demand and Consumption Trends Global wheat consumption is projected to rise by 1.8 million metric tons to 803.7 million. This increase is largely driven by higher feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. Strong demand from China and Turkey continues to influence the global wheat market, as both countries increase their wheat imports to offset domestic shortages and meet rising consumption needs. Price and Market Implications With tighter supplies and a reduction in global stocks to 257.6 million metric tons, wheat prices are expected to remain firm in 2025. Currency fluctuations, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, could enhance the competitiveness of American wheat exports. However, intense competition from Russia and other major producers continues to limit the U.S. share in global trade. Additionally, ongoing climatic uncertainties, such as droughts and heatwaves, pose risks to future wheat yields, potentially exacerbating supply constraints. Investment Opportunities and Risks The wheat market presents both opportunities and challenges in 2025. Futures contracts may remain volatile, offering potential gains for short-term traders. Agricultural technology companies focusing on drought-resistant wheat varieties and precision farming techniques could benefit from the ongoing push for efficiency in wheat production. Furthermore, investors may consider diversifying into agriculture-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or stocks linked to the wheat supply chain, such as fertilizer companies, machinery manufacturers, and logistics providers. As the global wheat market continues to evolve, staying informed about production trends, trade policies, and price movements is still important for market participants. Understanding these factors can help investors navigate potential risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities in this essential commodity sector. CBOT:ZW1!
CAPITALCOM:WHEAT
by juliakhandoshko
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/20/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 22235.50 - PR Low: 22208.50 - NZ Spread: 60.50 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12:00 | Crude Oil Inventories Daily inside bar, stalling en route to ATH - Holding auction above 22100s interest - Advertising rotation below previous session low Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 2/20) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 337.21 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 295K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
XAU/USD Technical Analysis 📈 XAU/USD Technical Analysis 🔺 Rising Wedge Formation – Price approaching key resistance! 📉 Potential Retracement Zones: ✅ 2902-2905 – First demand zone for a possible bounce ✅ 2872-2882 – Deeper correction level ✅ 2834-2853 – Stronger support 📊 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Breakout Above – Bullish continuation 🚀 2️⃣ Pullback to Demand Zones – Before next move 📉 💡 Gold Traders, What's Your Plan? #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #SmartMoney #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #LiquidityHunt #FXForever
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FXFOREVER_87
CHECK XAUUSD ANALYSIS SIGNAL UPDATE > GO AND READ THE CAPTAINThis chart is a trading setup for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, published on TradingView. The setup is based on a buy trade from a key support zone. Here’s a breakdown of the chart: Key Elements: 1. Entry Point (Buy Zone): Marked within the blue highlighted zone around 2,918 – 2,920 Expecting price to bounce from this support level 2. Stop Loss: Placed below the support zone at 2,908 Protects against further downside if the trade goes wrong 3. Take Profit Levels: Take Profit 1: Around 2,924 Take Profit 2: Around 2,932 Last Target: 2,940 (final target for full exit) 4. Trade Expectation: Price is anticipated to test the entry zone, then move up towards the profit targets The risk-reward ratio is positive, aiming for a strong bullish move Conclusion: This setup suggests a buying opportunity in gold based on price action and support/resistance levels. The stop loss is well-placed below support, and multiple profit targets allow for partial exits.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Royalforexempire
Gold Analysis GOLD Analysis and Trade Setup Gold is currently testing a historically significant resistance level that has repeatedly acted as a barrier to price advancement. Given the strength of this resistance zone, it is reasonable to anticipate a potential rejection or pullback. Historically, such levels often prompt a reversal, particularly after a retest of the structure, which could further confirm the resistance's validity. The likelihood of a rejection at this level is supported by the principles of technical analysis, as repeated tests of a resistance level tend to reinforce its significance. In summary, while the current setup suggests a potential pullback from the resistance level, traders should remain cautious and monitor key technical and fundamental factors.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LegendaryTom