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Supply and Demand

THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: After yesterdays plan to long into the levels above which worked well, we're now experiencing choppy and ranging price action playing the 2675 resistance and 2665 support. We can potentially expect another attack on the 2675 region but it's that 2660 level that needs to break. For that reason, we'll stick with the range for now and await a breakout, otherwise, it's accumulation in preparation for some more volume. Not much more to report on team. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
Market Analisys: S&P 500SP:SPX In recent months, the S&P 500 has experienced notable fluctuations: 1. All-Time High : The index reached a record high of 6,099.97 points on December 6, 2024. 2. Correction : It then faced a correction, dropping to a low of 5,805.65 points by January 8, 2025. 3. Current Performance : As of January 14, 2025, the index closed at 5,842.91 points, reflecting a slight 0.11% increase compared to the previous day. 4. Technical Outlook : Analysts highlight potential weakness, with the next support level identified at 5,771.5 points. In summary, the SP:SPX has exhibited volatility, peaking in December 2024 and entering a correction phase in early 2025. Let's analyze in detail the various phases that have led us to this point – starting from October 27, 2023, the last moment with a significant downturn. Since then, we’ve seen an increase of about 50%, with a maximum drawdown of 10%. This represents a more than positive performance. Prior to this, we experienced a brief decline lasting around 90 days, with a drop of approximately 11%. Subsequent rallies have generally been strong, although they have been shorter and more contained. In total, we’ve experienced 5 rallies and 5 pullbacks. Currently, we are in a downtrend. As mentioned earlier, except for the first rally, the most significant one, recent bull runs have been consistently interrupted by unwelcome news, data that does not meet investor expectations, and announcements from the FED and ECB indicating that interest rate cuts will be smaller than anticipated. All of this has brought us to the current situation. We are now facing a maximum decline of about 5-6%, with a bounce on the trendline that has been guiding us since October 2023. This is all happening as inflation data is released today. The market seems to have entered a phase where it seeks further confirmations from the economy, and the technical chart is showing exactly that. Additionally, we have several other key economic data releases scheduled for this week. What do you think the market’s next move will be?
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by TIMINGTRADE
Where & How to Draw Strong Support and Resistance Lines & Zones In this article, I will teach you how to draw support and resistance. We will discuss support and resistance lines, levels, zones. You will learn where and how to find it properly with simply technical analysis technique that works on forex, gold or any other financial market. First, let me note that the most reliable time frame for support and resistance analysis is the daily . The structures that you will find there will be appropriate for day trading, scalping and swing trading. Once you open a daily time frame, you should choose a correct perspective . Because this t.f lets you see the price action even for the past couple of years. You need to see the market movement for the last 2 months . It is more than enough to identify the recent key levels. Above is AUDUSD on a daily. We see the price history for 2 months. In order to identify significant supports and resistances, simply find the levels - the highs and lows that the market respected in the past and from where important movements started. These are all such highs and lows that meet the criteria. When I do the support/resistance analysis, I prefer to perceive it as clusters - the zones , taking into consideration the candle closes as well. A support zone will be based on the level of the critical low and the lowest closest candle close. A resistance zone will be based on the level of the high and the highest closest candle close. Following such a rule, here are the zones that I identified. All the clusters that are identified will be applied as trading zones. Within the supports, we look for buying opportunities. While the resistances will be used for selling . Depending on your trading style, and you choose a proper signal before you execute the trade. Execute support and resistance analysis with care and attention, because it is the absolute basis of any technical analysis strategy. With incorrect key levels identification, even the best trading strategy will fail . I hope that the method that I showed you will help you in your trading journey. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
8
XAU/USD 15 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis and intraday expectation remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 14 January 2025. Price Action Analysis: Yesterday's Intraday expectation was not met with price failing to target weak internal high, printing a bearish iBOS. Internal structure has now aligned itself with swing structure. This could potentially be an early indication that both Daily and H4 pullback phases are incomplete. It would also be useful to remember that Weekly TF remains in its bearish pullback phase. Price subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH thereby confirming internal range and indication of bullish pullback phase initiation. Intraday Expectation: Price has yet to trade in to premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 supply zone. Expectation is for price to target weak internal low, priced at 2,656.880. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
BOMEUSDT BUYSWith BTC currently showing bullish sentiments and already exhibiting good momentum for buys, BOMEUSDT has cleared liquidity resting on the 4HR, and after such a sweep, the indication is a reversal in direction. Hence, I expect price to take out that high marked out as MSS to cause a change of character and retest into the FVG below that causes the CHoCh and then target sellside liquidity to the top side. (At least, until BTC does otherwise, as we gotta keep watch on BTC's behavior since we're trading crypto.)
Long
by Blaqkarho
XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the release of the CPI index!Silver is in a 4 -hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50, moving in its upside channel. If you continue the decline, we can see the channel floor failure and a limited support. Silver stabilization above the resistance range will provide us with silver climbing route to the supply zone, where we can sell at a proper risk. The U.S. employment report for December disrupted expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a key market driver. Job creation surged by 256,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 160,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This data triggered a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, the highest level since 2023. Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, which could face headwinds if inflation accelerates. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until at least June, a notable shift from earlier forecasts anticipating rate reductions in spring. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could further delay this timeline, strengthening the dollar and potentially putting pressure on silver prices. Silver’s industrial role continues to support its prices, driven by robust global demand in industries like solar energy and electronics.The production of solar panels, a major consumer of silver, remains a key driver, while geopolitical and inflationary risks have boosted silver’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold’s stability in a high-yield environment has indirectly supported silver as well. Amid stock market volatility, investors have turned to both precious metals. The S&P 500 has declined by 1% year-to-date. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and the fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump have increased demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, speculation around Trump’s potential policies, including tariffs and spending programs, has heightened market uncertainty. Markets are grappling with whether these measures will stoke inflation or negatively impact growth, creating mixed conditions for silver. Major global banks are revising their forecasts for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bank of America has stated it no longer expects any rate cuts in 2025. The bank believes the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has ended and sees the next move as more likely to be a rate hike. Citi has also updated its projections, announcing that it no longer anticipates a Fed rate cut in January. The bank now forecasts a potential rate reduction in May. Deutsche Bank has similarly noted that the Fed is unlikely to lower rates in the near term. The bank believes the Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with future actions heavily dependent on incoming economic data. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will implement two 0.25% rate cuts in June and December, totaling 0.5% for the year. This marks a revision from its earlier forecast of a 0.75% reduction. Finally, Morgan Stanley has indicated that the likelihood of a near-term rate cut has diminished. However, the bank still considers a rate cut in March plausible due to an improving inflation outlook.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Will the weakness of the yen stop?!The USDJPY pairing in the 4 -hour timeframe is between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its mid -term uptrend. If corrected by publishing economic data this week, we can see the downward trend and then the restricted demand zone, and in that area with the right risk. The valid defeat of the specified resistance range will pave the way for the pair up to 160. Tatsu Yamasaki, a former Japanese official, stated in an interview with Nikkei that collaboration between Trump and Tokyo could help normalize the dollar-yen exchange rate. He suggested that Trump should work with Tokyo to weaken the overly strong dollar. Such cooperation could strengthen economic relations between the two nations and bring greater stability to financial markets. Meanwhile, robust U.S. labor market data for December has led many analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further at this time. Some even predict that the report could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2025. An economist at Bank of America wrote in a note, “Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period. However, the risk of a rate hike is growing.” According to the economist, factors such as core inflation growth or rising inflation expectations could trigger a rate hike.Concerns also revolve around Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, which may contribute to higher inflation. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remarked that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts due to stable labor markets and inflation nearing target levels. She also predicted that global economic growth will remain steady as inflation gradually declines in 2025. Georgieva highlighted uncertainties surrounding trade policies under the new U.S. administration, emphasizing their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, she expects global interest rates to remain relatively high for an extended period. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that interest rates will be raised if economic improvements and price growth continue. He noted that the final decision on this matter will be made next week. Ueda’s remarks contributed to strengthening the yen in financial markets. Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, indicated that if economic projections materialize, monetary easing policies will be adjusted and interest rates increased. He stressed the need for continuous monitoring of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. Domestically, one of the critical issues remains the outlook for wage growth in the fiscal year 2025. Himino acknowledged various risks, both domestic and international, while noting that the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong. Masato Kanda, a former currency official for Japan, continues to comment on the yen. Speaking in Tokyo, he emphasized that currency markets should move based on fundamental principles, and any sudden deviations from these fundamentals require correction. Separately, Nippon Steel announced that it is the sole partner capable of fully preserving U.S. Steel, keeping its blast furnaces operational, and maintaining jobs in the industry. The company stated that its commitments have been shared in multiple meetings with various stakeholders, including employees. Meanwhile, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, has been accused of unfair biases, as he cannot match the scope and scale of Nippon Steel’s proposal. Nippon Steel emphasized its determination to take whatever measures are necessary to finalize the deal.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Harmonious energy flow on ETH/USDT: preparing for a new impulse🔮 Harmonious energy flow on ETH/USDT: preparing for a new impulse 🔮 Today, we are witnessing an important moment on the chart! The price of ETH/USDT has passed the 96% mark of the previous downward movement, which means the exhaustion of the sellers' potential. The harmonious concept of energy flow suggests that a new radial-axial dynamics (RAD) is forming at this stage. This is the point of equilibrium where energy flows from one side to the other, creating the potential for a new trend. 📍 Key levels: Local support: 3223 is an important benchmark for holding the price. Local resistance: 3355 is a key zone where the market will determine its further strength. 📊 What do you need to move up? A harmonious flow of energy requires confirmation in the form: A manifestation of strength in the accumulation phase. This can be seen in the increase in buyer volumes near support. Confident consolidation of the price above 3355. Only a breakout of this level and its transformation into support will open the way to new heights. ✨ The essence of a harmonious transition: The current forming ROD is the basis for the upward momentum to continue. The current phase of the market indicates the accumulation of energy, which is the basis for further upward movement. The market is now at a critical point where the balance of power is gradually tilting towards buyers. 👀 What to expect next? A signal for active action will be: Confirmation of the support zone 3223. Active breakout of 3355 with strong volumes. Recommendation: Follow the developments in this zone. The next stage, after confirmation of the harmonic impulse, can lead to new heights, especially if buyers take the initiative in the accumulation phase. 🌊 The harmony of energy always guides us! A little more patience and the market will show us where to go next. 🚀
Long
by WVitalievich
The market's energy is fueling a new wave of growth!Yesterday was a significant moment for the crypto market. 🌐 We received clear confirmation of the emergence of a new wave of growth. The upward flow of energy confirmed the intention of buyers, and the result of the day consolidated the volumes and showed the readiness to move to new heights. 📈 🎯 Key levels of support and resumption of growth: - 3525 is the level where a local suspension of movement is possible to accumulate energy. - 3443 is a zone that can become a key support and a starting point for the resumption of upward movement. 🔍 Chart analysis: On the daily timeframe, we can see how the price is organically forming a base for continued growth. Yesterday brought progress with a clear buyer's volume, which supports the upward trend. The energy flow is now focused on forming new support points for further upward movement. 🔥 ⚡️ What to expect next? A new wave of growth is already gaining strength, and the buyer is showing stability in intentions. Keep an eye on the situation and the price reaction at key levels. Be prepared for further opportunities that the market opens up! 🌟
Long
by WVitalievich
GBPJPY: Bullish Setup at Support LevelThe GBPJPY pair is approaching a significant support zone which has historically acted as a strong demand area. The overall context implies that buyers may take control at this level, leading to an upward move. I anticipate that if the price shows a clear rejection from the demand zone, the market may head higher toward the 193.266 level. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by DanieIM
AUDCAD Intraday trade 15/01/2025On the daily timeframe, #AUDCAD remains in a clear bearish trend, but as discussed earlier, the pair is currently in a pullback phase, forming a potential lower high. At present, price is hovering around the 0.88966 level, which serves as a key area of interest for sellers. Traders should be watching closely for signs of rejection or bearish confirmation at this level, which could present a solid selling opportunity in line with the prevailing trend. Alternatively, if the pullback extends further, the next significant level to monitor is around 0.89667, where deeper retracement could offer another opportunity to enter short positions. It's important to remain patient and allow price action to dictate the next move within this ongoing bearish structure. Happy Trading
Long
by Thetraderscollective
Gold intraday 15/01/2025On the daily timeframe, #XAUUSD continues to show bullish momentum, driven by the strength seen following Friday's NFP data. The market has established a clear trend, with Monday's price action forming a lower high pullback that has since been broken. Yesterday, we saw price break and retest the 2668 level, further reinforcing the bullish bias for the time being. As long as price remains above this level, the outlook remains optimistic for further upside movement. However, a break and close below 2668 could signal a shift in momentum, warranting a re-evaluation of the current bullish stance. Traders should stay vigilant and watch for key price action confirmations to align with the broader trend.
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Thetraderscollective
DXY (US Dollar Index) 4H Timeframe AnalysisDXY (US Dollar Index) 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, DXY is currently in an uptrend, with price action recently breaking through a major key resistance level at 108.900, which is now acting as a strong support. This breakout marks a potential continuation of the bullish trend. The market has formed a clear 3-bottom reversal pattern, indicating strong buying momentum as price pulls back for a liquidity hunt below the minor key support. Currently, the price is in a consolidation phase near the liquidity zone, ready to test the minor key resistance at 109.040. If the price breaks above this resistance after the liquidity hunt, we expect continued bullish momentum toward the next resistance level at 110.290. Price Action Expectation: Our objective is to wait for a price manipulation period at the liquidity zone, where we expect a brief dip to liquidate all buyer stop-losses. After this, we anticipate a strong rebound and a potential breakout above the minor key resistance. Wait for price to break above the minor resistance at 109.040. Look for confirmation of a bullish continuation with increased volume as the price reacts to any positive economic news, such as strong retail sales and low unemployment claims. Expect the price to rally toward the next significant resistance level at 110.290. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop (Breakout Entry) Entry: 109.040 (after a confirmed breakout above minor resistance) Stop Loss: 108.550 (below liquidity zone to avoid false breakouts) Take Profit: 110.290 (next significant resistance level) News Catalyst The upcoming economic data, such as Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims, could have a significant impact on the USD. A positive retail sales number (forecasted at 0.5%) would likely support the uptrend in DXY, as would a lower-than-expected unemployment claims number (forecasted at 210K). Strong data from these releases would reinforce the bullish sentiment for the USD, pushing DXY towards the next key resistance. Conclusion: DXY shows strong bullish potential based on a clear trend break and positive economic data outlook. The strategy focuses on waiting for the breakout confirmation, entering at a strategic point, and riding the momentum toward the next resistance level. Risk Management: Maintain a 1:2+ risk-to-reward ratio to optimize trade outcomes. Position size should align with your account equity to manage risk effectively. Monitor economic news closely, as it could influence short-term market fluctuations. Trading involves significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Always: Seek advice from a financial professional if unsure about trading decisions.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by RebornFXTrader
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/15/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20977.00 - PR Low: 20938.50 - NZ Spread: 86.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | CPI (Core|YoY|MoM) 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories Previous session printed volatile swings raising emotional value of participants - Holding auction inside 21000 range - Daily print advertising to indecision narrative - Another AMP temp margin increase for expected economic news event vol spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 1/15) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 372.13 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 252K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Daily CLS, Model 2 in the Monthly CLS play, Bullish StructureDaily CLS, Model 2 in the Monthly CLS play you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Long
by Dave-Hunter
4
Long - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this level Long - If price pullbacks and form CLS on this level you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Long
by Dave-Hunter
1
UPDATE ON RUNNING TRADEUSD/CHF 30M - How we getting on guys, back with an update in this pair and the trade that was activated earlier on today. As you can see price has continued to play out really well and has delivered us with some great profits. I am expecting to see this bearishness continue now throughout trading us right the way down surpassing our TP target. With price now setting a new low it would suggest that the high set where we entered is now seen as protected. This trade is running + 60 pips. (+ 3%) 3RR A big well done to any of you who took part in this trade, please ensure you are taking partials and applying safety measures to your positions. As always if any of you have any questions with regards to the analysis performed or the trade itself please do not hesitate in getting in touch with me, I am more than happy to answer any questions you may have.
Short
by Lukegforex