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Supply and Demand

THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL - UpdateDaily chart – Election Special: Quick update on the election chart we have been sharing since the beginning November. As you can see it’s worked well, however, at this stage of the movement we should have seen more upside movement on gold, which the accumulation is controlling. We have now added the additional level below 2590, as potential which corresponds with the KOG Report that has been posted. Otherwise, nice clean movement, projected from the highs, swings were captured and levels worked extremely well. Red arrow was the projection, green arrows tracking movement. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the inflation index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If we maintain the drawn blue upward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and the limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the zone of supply, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. Returning below this trend line paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy within the zone of demand. According to a report by Bank of America, gold remains on track to reach $3,000 per ounce next year. However, investors need to be patient, as the current price consolidation phase may continue through the first half of the year. Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated during the bank’s 2025 Outlook webinar: “Currently, gold is stuck in an environment where there’s nothing tangible to draw investors back into the market.” The second-largest U.S. bank has highlighted that gold faces significant challenges in the upcoming year, including weak demand from China and pressures on Western investors, who are dealing with the prospect of higher bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The report noted, “The Trump administration is likely to pursue a mixed economic policy that, through stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, could limit investors’ willingness to increase gold purchases in the short term.” Bank of America strategists predict that Trump’s economic policies, such as potential trade tariffs and similar measures, may force the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Analysts expect only two rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June. Despite these challenges, precious metals experts believe that gold and silver will remain well-supported in the coming year as economic uncertainties and geopolitical turmoil continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets. According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, 56 out of 97 respondents forecast that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate to 3.50–3.75% or lower by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 93 out of 103 economists surveyed predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50–4.25%. Investors are now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have increased by 0.3% in November. This data could shape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy stance. Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital, commented: “An expected CPI number essentially gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates next week, and this could be the catalyst that gold has been waiting for.” Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs views the recent decline in gold prices as merely a fluctuation and expects the metal to resume its upward trajectory soon. Goldman Sachs cited the following reasons for its outlook: • Accommodative monetary policies • Central bank purchases of gold • A return of investors to the gold market The bank also pointed out that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of Russian assets by Western nations, gold emerged as an attractive alternative to the U.S. dollar. Many central banks around the world turned to gold to diversify their reserves. Goldman Sachs stated: “We do not expect central bank demand for gold to decline. With the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, investors will also reenter the market. We project that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Not a bad day at all on Gold, our path worked well, we got the low, got the move up, got another 50pip short and then switched to the red boxes for bonus scalps. It was literally a level to level, point to point move! To round up the day, we would say higher level above are to be targeted with support now at the 2675 region and the bias as bullish above. We would like to either see this attack resistance over the Asia session and then confirm a short, or, we'll wait below for the RIP to take it higher. Not much more to report on. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Alikze »» Link | Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D - It has been moving in a downward channel on the daily time frame. - Currently, with the failure of the descending channel, in the case of a pullback to the ceiling of the channel or the range of 12.50, it can have the target of 16 to 17 dollars in the first step. - This ascending wave is the previous wave. But in a longer-term perspective, wave 2 correction in the green box range has ended. - Therefore, this recent motivational wave, micro-waves, wave 1 out of 3 is rising. 💎 In addition, this increasing wave can continue to climb up to Fibo 1.272 and 1.618 if the supply zone is broken. ⚠️ Note: If the candlestick closes below the 12.50 zone, the bullish scenario is invalidated and can retest the green box zone. ⚠️ 💎 Currently, according to the momentum, the first scenario or the bullish scenario is more likely. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:LINKUSDT
Long
by alikze
Brent - Will stability return to the region?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. We will look for oil buying positions on the midline of the ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the upward trend. On the other hand, within the supply zone, we can make short-term sales with appropriate risk reward. China has announced plans to implement a “relatively accommodative” monetary policy. This announcement, accompanied by promises of support for more “active” fiscal policies, signals Beijing’s intention to further ease economic conditions. The news drew significant market attention, resulting in a 6% rise in the value of Chinese investment funds on U.S. stock exchanges. Similarly, the Australian dollar gained notable strength in currency markets, and commodity prices saw an uptick. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg sources, Chinese drone manufacturers have recently imposed restrictions on exporting key components used in drone production to the United States and Europe. This move strongly suggests that Beijing is unwilling to exert pressure on Moscow to end the war. On another front, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, announced after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend that he is making serious efforts to end the war.Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated, “A ceasefire must be declared immediately, and negotiations must begin.” He added, “I know the President of Russia well. Now is the time for him to act. China can help. The world is watching!” Simultaneously, the Biden administration, with Trump’s backing, is working to secure a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The negotiations have resumed swiftly and discreetly, with close coordination between Biden’s and Trump’s teams. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, is playing a pivotal role in these talks. Trump has demanded the release of hostages before his inauguration, warning that otherwise, “hell will break loose in the Middle East.” Biden administration officials have welcomed Trump’s support and are striving to ensure a smooth transition between the two administrations. Adam Boehler has been appointed as the lead official for hostage affairs and is expected to play an active role in Gaza negotiations. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ production will remain data-dependent. The bank expects OPEC+ to increase production for four consecutive months starting in July, coinciding with strong summer demand. Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that India’s oil demand will grow by 0.3 million barrels per day next year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. crude oil production is forecast to reach 13.24 million barrels per day this year and 13.52 million barrels per day next year. The EIA has also revised its 2024 price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil downward, projecting $76.51 per barrel for Brent and $80.49 per barrel for WTI. These figures are lower than last month’s forecasts of $77 and $80.95 per barrel, respectively. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 0.499 million barrels in the week ending December 6, 2024, following a 1.232 million barrel increase the previous week. According to the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin, this marks the fifth increase in eight weeks, defying market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD 11 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in my analysis dated 25 November 2024, H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. This suggested that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations, which it did. Price printed as per alternative scenario, printing a bullish iBOS. Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. Internal range is now established. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand level before targeting weak internal high. Alternative Scenario: Current internal range is fairly extensive, therefore, requiring a deeper pullback to internal 50% EQ and/or M15 demand level. Price could potentially target weak internal high and print a bullish iBOS to narrow the depth of the internal range. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel. If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone. According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month. Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%. The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year. Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly. The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks. Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts. Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions. In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines. In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050. On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption. The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
Binance Coin Long Setup Setting / Next Alt-Season BasketBINANCE:BNBUSDT OKX:BNBUSDT 📈Which side you pick? Bull or Bear SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage (If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status) Considering the price trend in its previous channel, by repeating the stabilization of the price at the bottom of the second parallel channel, it can be expected that the price will continue to move up to the top of the new channel. The price breaking above the specified level can increase the certainty of the realization of the price target. The price falling below the red level cancels the bullish scenario of Binance Coin. Potential price targets for the levels will be $950 and $1,447. 👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate. ➡️Entry Area: Yellow zone ⚡️TP: 950 1447 2340 3515 🔴SL: 252 🧐The Alternate scenario: If the price stabilize against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
Long
by CrazyS
Is EurUsd's correction over?In my previous posts about EUR/USD, I discussed the potential for an upside correction following the break below the 1.05 support level, the drop to 1.0330, and the subsequent reversal. I suggested that this upward movement could potentially push the price toward the 1.0670 resistance zone. Indeed, the pair did rise, reaching an intraday high of 1.0628 during Friday's NFP event. However, the day ended with a downside move, leaving a red candle with a long wick on the daily chart. The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. This, combined with the overlapping structure from the recent low, clearly indicates that we are not witnessing the start of a bullish trend but rather a corrective phase. The key question now is whether this correction has concluded. To confirm, we would need to see a break back below the 1.05 level. With this in mind, if the pair revisits Friday's high, I plan to sell, placing a stop loss above 1.07 and targeting the 1.0450 support level.
by Mihai_Iacob
7
NZDUSD OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, we have a bearish outlook with signs of bullish correction. On the same monthly chart, we have a fresh order block indicating there is downside pressure. Lately, the Kiwi has come under a lot of pressure since China cut their interest rates. Presently we are anticipating a further weakening of the kiwi across the board caused by weakening economic data from China. On the daily charts, the Kiwi is set to form new lows confirming the medium term bearish trend as we wind down the year.
by morrisgitau
MAV ROADMAP (1D)It appears that MAV is forming a large triangle, currently in wave D of this triangle. Wave D within the triangle seems to be a diametric pattern, and the price is currently in wave d of this diametric. We are looking for buy/long positions in the green zone. The red line or range can act as a target. If a daily candle closes below the invalidation level, this analysis will be invalidated. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
2
Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H ChartThe chart reflects a bullish rally, with price now testing resistance at $2,693 after breaking out of consolidation near $2,675. The key levels and volume dynamics suggest potential continuation or a pullback before the next significant move. Below is a detailed analysis of the bullish and bearish scenarios. Key Observations Trend Overview: The price is in an uptrend, breaking out of prior consolidation and establishing higher highs and higher lows. The NY Midnight Open at $2,698 is acting as a short-term resistance pivot. Support Levels: $2,675–$2,677: Immediate support zone, aligned with the breakout level. $2,662–$2,665: Secondary support level, also the prior consolidation range. $2,624–$2,626: Major demand zone, where strong buy-side activity occurred. Resistance Levels: $2,693–$2,698: Immediate resistance zone, currently being tested. $2,713–$2,720: Key resistance level and breakout target for bullish continuation. $2,740–$2,760: Extended resistance zone, marking an ultimate bullish target. Volume Analysis: Buy Volume (3.061M) vs. Sell Volume (508.77K): Indicates strong buying activity driving the rally. Delta Volume (143%): Suggests dominance of buyers, with sell-side absorption near resistance. Bullish Scenario Conditions for a Bullish Move: Price must break above the $2,693–$2,698 resistance zone with strong volume. Sustained buying pressure above $2,698 will confirm bullish continuation. Entry Points: Aggressive Entry: Buy near the $2,675–$2,677 support zone, with a stop-loss below $2,670. Conservative Entry: Enter on a confirmed breakout and retest above $2,698, with a stop-loss below $2,690. Exit Points (Take Profit): First Target: $2,713 (key resistance zone). Second Target: $2,740 (extended bullish target). Final Target: $2,760 (major resistance zone). Invalidation: A breakdown below $2,670 would invalidate the bullish scenario. Bearish Scenario Conditions for a Bearish Move: Price fails to break above $2,698, indicating rejection at the resistance. A confirmed breakdown below $2,675 would signal bearish momentum. Entry Points: Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,693, with a stop-loss above $2,700. Conservative Entry: Enter short after a confirmed breakdown below $2,675, with a stop-loss above $2,685. Exit Points (Take Profit): First Target: $2,662–$2,665 (secondary support zone). Second Target: $2,624 (major demand zone). Final Target: $2,595 (extended bearish target). Invalidation: A breakout above $2,700 would invalidate the bearish scenario. Key Indicators to Monitor Volume Behavior: Increasing buy volume above $2,693 confirms bullish strength. Rising sell volume near $2,698 signals potential rejection. Breakout/Breakdown Confirmation: A breakout above $2,698 signals bullish continuation. A breakdown below $2,675 signals bearish reversal. Heikin Ashi Candles: Sustained green candles with larger bodies confirm bullish momentum. Red candles with long upper wicks near resistance indicate selling pressure. Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels Bullish $2,675–$2,677 (Aggressive) or above $2,698 (Conservative) $2,670 $2,713, $2,740, $2,760 Bearish $2,693 (Aggressive) or below $2,675 (Conservative) $2,700 $2,665, $2,624, $2,595 Conclusion Bullish Outlook: A breakout above $2,698 could lead to a rally toward $2,713 or higher. Bearish Outlook: Rejection at $2,698 or a breakdown below $2,675 could trigger a decline toward $2,665–$2,595. Traders should closely monitor price action at the $2,698 resistance and $2,675 support levels for confirmation of the next move. Managing risk with tight stop-losses is essential in the current breakout/rejection scenario.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProspireWealth
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/11/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21442.00 - PR Low: 21417.25 - NZ Spread: 55.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | CPI (Core|MoM|YoY) 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction Break below 21430 support into inventory response off previous ATH breakout - Daily print advertising rollover back to Keltner avg cloud - Failed QQQ ATH breakout gap fill below 520 Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 12/11) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 260.71 - Volume: 16K - Open Int: 279K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5