Supply and Demand
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Today's update mentioned we would stick with the plan as the bias level was working well and we said we'll stick with the targets until further notice. For the week, you can see we got the move from the red box into the lower level we wanted, then the bounce, then the rejection from the red box and the bias level targets were ticked off one by one. Has it been easy? No! Has it been worth the wait, YES! We said be careful of the range, wait for the breakout and then we'll get in, those that waited managed to capture the trade. A couple which were shared with the wider community.
Now we've added our lower red boxes with resistance standing at the 3230 region which if attacked first and rejected can give us the continuation downside. Ideally, we want one of these levels below on the boxes to hold, and the capture the scalp upside. Lots of news tomorrow, so guaranteed to be more whipsawing and choppy price action.
Unless we give you immediate level 50-80pips distance which are guaranteed to be hit, it's a hard task to give you the extreme levels and movement like we do, so please make sure your risk models are up to scratch if you're following.
KOG’s Bias of the day:
Bullish above 3240 with targets above 3258✅ and above that 3265✅
Bearish on break of 3240 with target below 3230✅ and below that 3210✅
RED BOXES:
Break above 3265 for 3272, 3275, 3288 and 3006 in extension of the move
Break below 3250 for 3235✅, 3230✅, 3226✅ and 3207✅ in extension of the move
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 3310 with targets above 3335, 3345, 3350, 3350, 3362 and 3370
Bearish below 3310 with targets below 3306✅, 3301✅, 3297✅, 3285✅ and 3274✅
RED BOXES (TAKE NOTE)
Break above 3335 for 3342, 3350, 3354, 3365, 3370. 3373 and 3385 in extension of the move
Break below 3320 for 3310✅, 3306✅, 3298✅, 3293✅, 3285✅ and 3279✅ in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
AudUsd Trade IdeaAu is showing a clear range between 64930 and 63600 with 64350 being the mid level. After price tapped into 64930 we had a clean bearish structure flip on the smaller time frames to support the push back to the downside. Once price got to the mid level we could see price continuing to respect bearish structures. Entry for me was the 1hr bearish engulfing after the retesting the range it was in to confirm our overall direction. I'll be looking for a 1:3rr on this set up. If all goes well we could expect price to tap back into 63600 again. We'll see what happens.
GbpUsd Trade IdeaWith GU pushing back above the range between 1.34155 and 1.32325 we could expect price to continue with bullish structures. Price ended up breaking below 1.32325 before pushing back above with a solid retest and structure flip. I'll be looking to go long on the pair for a 1:3rr after price can retest from the small range it was in before pushing back above. If all goes well we should expect the highs to tapped into and maybe even create a new high where 1.34155 could get hit again. We'll see what happens.
EurAud Trade UpdateI posted an EA long idea not too long ago. I stated price being bearish on higher time frames but if the smaller time frames gave me the shift I wanted to see after retesting above 1.73375 than I would execute longs. 15m time gave the shift I wanted to see so I'll personally be targeting a 1:3rr on this pair for today. If all goes well we could expect price to eventually tap back into 1.74490
BTC Bulls Defend Key Zone Eyes on $123K Breakout ExtensionBitcoin has successfully completed a breakout above the prior weekly high structure, followed by a healthy pullback which is currently unfolding into a bullish pennant formation. The key highlight is how price is retesting the neckline zone with precision, which now doubles as a strong immediate buyback zone.
The reaction from this level is already showing strong bullish momentum, with price gearing up to challenge the previous ATH. A breakout above that resistance should unlock the path toward the projected $116.5k and $123.4k targets as shown on the chart. Failure to hold the Immediate Buyback Zone opens the door toward the Strong Demand Zone, which remains a valid re-accumulation point within this bullish cycle.
Stay sharp. The structure remains intact unless the neckline fails decisively.
Possible Scenario for Gold if GDP Surprises to the UpsideFirst, a warning: This is a hypothetical scenario in which gold has made its final top at 3500, and we explore the possible short-term effects of this outcome.
Today will be a busy day for gold, with both PCE and GDP data scheduled for release. The remainder of the week is also likely to be more volatile than recent days, with earnings reports from NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:AAPL , and NASDAQ:AMZN , as well as a key jobs report on Friday.
Gold reached a top at 3500. Whether this is the final top of the current cycle remains uncertain, it’s notoriously difficult to time tops in a bull market. However, there are some strong signals suggesting gold may be at or near its peak. For more details, please refer to the following post:
Historically, gold tends to form a secondary top slightly below the peak before declining. It often retests (third time but seen as second at monthly chart) the high again, within 36 months before entering a bear cycle. If—and this is a big if—3500 is the top, another attempt toward that level is still possible. But first, today’s data will play a key role.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is projecting below -2.30%, and the gold-adjusted GDPNow is below -1%, indicating weak Q1 expectations. Market consensus has a median forecast of -0.2%, with most estimates ranging between -1% and 0.6%. Much of the expected downside stems from the pre-tariff trade deficit.
If GDP surprises to the upside with slightly positive growth and PCE slows as expected, this could put downward pressure on gold, possibly pushing prices down to the 3145–3170 zone. However, problematic China trade relations, continued war between Ukraine and Russia, and rising tensions along the India-Pakistan border could keep demand for gold elevated. This could lead to a recovery and a second, weaker top near 3450 or maybe even a breakout beyond that level.
Please keep in mind that this is just one potential scenario for gold.
PNUT – Breakout Cooling Down, Not Done Yet - 3x is Near!
$PNUT is far from over. Clean breakout followed by a healthy cooldown—looking like a setup for continuation.
Would love to bid below 3c, as it's a pivotal level with strong confluence. If we see a market-wide pullback in the next couple of weeks, there’s a good chance those bids get filled.
Targeting the yearly open around 7c for an exit.
BINANCE:PNUTUSDT
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook ExplainedGOLD has breached and closed below a significant daily horizontal support level.
Prior to this violation the support level, the price was consolidating in a tight horizontal range.
The bearish breakout from this trading range is a strong indicator of further declines.
The pair could continue to drop after retesting the broken structure to 3122 level.
BankNifty levels - May 16, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
Nifty levels - May 16, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NZDJPY Long We have three POI with the first already broken. Possibility of price reacting from the second (middle) POI and buying is high. Data showed from RSI and Stoch offers a possibility of it being over sold, so this may be valid.
However, this is not a trade idea but areas to watch out for. If price fails to react from the second POI and breaks it lower, then we can expect a push up from the third POI.
US100 TO MAKE A MASSIVE DROP !!Price recently made a new lower high after we had a previous lower high around 20,122 price remains bearish as our recent trend isn’t taken out yet. Meaning that there is no new all time high formation yet. I anticipate a drop in price (abound 1000pip ) back to the previous lower high of 20122. Therefore we are looking forward to selling US100.
Optimism (OP) Falling WedgeBINANCE:OPUSDT is attempting a breakout from a 14 months long falling wedge.
A sustained break above the resistance in the near term would set the target at $3.80, just shy of the main $4.00-$4.80 supply zone.
Key Levels to Watch
• $0.55-$0.60: Main demand zone and invalidation point for the setup
• $1.00-$1.20: High Volume Node and key S/R dating back to June 2023.*
• $2.50-$2.80: High Volume Node and wedge high point.*
• $4.00-$4.80: Main supply zone.
* These could offer resistance and represent good levels for partial TPs.
ZK Aanalysis (12H)After forming a 3D bottom, the price moved upward with a strong and rapid bullish wave that was stronger than the previous bullish waves within the bearish move, reclaiming a key zone. Additionally, an important trigger line has been broken, which strengthens the bullish outlook on ZK.
We are looking for buy/long positions within the green zone toward the targets. The targets are marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin Update – Expecting a Correction to $96K! Crypto traders! 💙 Bitcoin looks ready for a pullback to our key level at $96,000. I’m waiting to BUY in this zone, but if the level breaks and price stabilizes below, I’ll consider a SHORT trade to our next target (as previously defined).
⚡️ Pro Trading Tip:
✅ If you’re a trader, always have a strategy—be ready for any scenario!
✅ For long-term investors, accumulate on dips near support levels.
📌 Risk management is key! Double your position size at each lower level to drastically reduce your average entry price.
💎 The Golden Rule of Crypto Success:
🔹 Keep losses small & disciplined.
🔹 Let your winners run to maximize gains!
🔹 The market is unpredictable, but YOU control your capital!
🚀 Bitcoin never sleeps—what’s your play?
👇 What’s your take on this move?
For detailed entry points, trade management, and high-probability setups, follow the channel:
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