XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities.
The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers.
The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets.
Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda.
Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%.
Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks.
In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
