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Supply and Demand

XAU/USD 09 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Today's analysis and bias will remain the same as analysis dated 26 November 2024. Price Action Analysis: Intraday expectation and analysis dated 25 November 2024 printed as anticipated, with price successfully printing a bearish iBOS after targeting the weak internal low. A correction from yesterday's intraday expectation: instead of targeting the weak internal high, price was expected to target the weak internal low. Price has since printed a bullish CHoCH, indicating, but not confirming, bullish pullback phase. We are now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to trade up to either the internal 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,605.310. Alternative Scenario: The H4 timeframe has printed a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase coupled with the fact that H4 TF is now trading in discount of internal 50%. However, this suggests that bearish momentum on M15 may face limitations as the broader H4 phase unfolds. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Bitcoin - Bitcoin finally reached 6 digits!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. risk ON sntiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone. After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 90 thousand dollars. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Last week, Donald Trump appointed Paul Atkins as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a decision that sparked mixed reactions. Hester Peirce, popularly known as the “Crypto Mom,” expressed her strong support for Atkins to replace the current SEC chairman, Gary Gensler. She stated, “Based on my previous experience working with him in this organization, I can’t imagine a better candidate for this position.” Meanwhile, Caroline Crenshaw, a current member of the SEC, has been nominated for another term and now awaits Senate confirmation. If approved, she will serve on the commission until 2029. During her tenure, Crenshaw has taken a notably strict stance on cryptocurrencies, earning a reputation for being even tougher than Gary Gensler. One key point of contention is her opposition to approving Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In a letter dated January 2024, she cited concerns such as investor protection and market manipulation as reasons for her dissent. These views have led some to label her as the primary adversary of the crypto industry. Bitcoin Spot ETFs now hold over one million bitcoins, surpassing the holdings of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Within less than a year, these funds have become the largest bitcoin holders in the world. Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary, told Bloomberg that the idea of establishing strategic bitcoin reserves is “ridiculous.” However, he welcomed efforts to regulate the crypto space and foster financial innovation. Summers also expressed skepticism about reducing government spending through the Productivity Department, calling it a challenging path. The performance and weekly and annual returns of major Layer 1 cryptocurrencies are shown in the accompanying chart. Meanwhile, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, appeared in a Paris court to face charges of facilitating illegal activities through his messaging app. Durov, who was temporarily detained on August 24, was released after posting a $6 million bail but has been barred from leaving France until March 2025. French prosecutors have accused him of running a platform that aids illicit activities. If convicted, Durov could face up to 10 years in prison and a fine of €500,000. This case has raised concerns about privacy-focused technologies in the Web3 space. At the same time, the number of cryptocurrency wallets with non-zero balances has reached 400 million. Michael Saylor, the CEO of Microstrategy, recently shared his proposed bitcoin purchasing strategy with crypto enthusiasts. He reiterated that bitcoin should be considered a long-term asset and advocated for using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for sustainable growth. Saylor, one of bitcoin’s most prominent supporters, stated that for the past four years, he has consistently advised investors to “buy bitcoin and never sell.” He emphasized that bitcoin should be held as a long-term capital asset rather than a short-term profit tool. Saylor recommended that investors enter the market every three months using funds they do not need and hold the investment for at least ten years. He also stressed that investors should not worry about short-term volatility and should avoid stress by adhering to this strategy. The trading volume of spot cryptocurrencies reached $2.7 trillion last month, marking the highest level since May 2021. A new survey revealed that over 80% of cryptocurrency holders admitted that their investment decisions were influenced by emotions like Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The survey, which included 1,248 participants, showed that 84% invested due to FOMO and 81% due to FUD. Kraken Exchange commented that the findings suggest many investors trade based on emotions and fears rather than logical strategies. These emotions often stem from misunderstandings or mistrust about the future of specific cryptocurrencies. The survey also revealed that FOMO drives investors to chase rising prices, while only 17% focus on buying opportunities during price drops. Interestingly, 63% of cryptocurrency holders acknowledged
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. In recent days, financial markets have experienced a notable influx of capital. According to a report by Bank of America, capital flows amounted to $8.2 billion into equities, $4.9 billion into bonds, and $3.0 billion into cryptocurrencies. This marks the largest four-week inflow into cryptocurrencies, totaling $11.0 billion. Capital inflows into U.S. equities continued for the ninth consecutive week, totaling $8.2 billion. Additionally, a $4.6 billion investment in small-cap U.S. stocks pushed the 2024 inflows to record highs. Over the 12 months ending in November, an average of 186,000 new jobs were created each month. On a monthly basis, the highest job growth was observed in healthcare, leisure, and government sectors. Employment in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector also saw a boost following the resolution of labor strikes. Recent economic data continues to highlight contractionary pressures and their effects on the U.S. economy. At first glance, November’s NFP employment report indicates a resilient and strong labor market, with the U.S. economy adding approximately 227,000 jobs. This growth was largely due to the recovery of jobs lost to recent hurricanes in the Southeast and the resolution of Boeing labor strikes, both of which had reduced employment figures in October. The October report was also revised upward to 36,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while labor force participation declined. Despite this, unemployment remains relatively low, though it may rise in the coming months if contractionary pressures persist. This week, major events in global central bank policies are expected to take place. Dubbed by some as the “central banks’ decisive week,” it begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. Key U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve policies. Investors are primarily focused on inflation data. The November CPI report is set to be released on Wednesday, followed by the PPI report on Thursday. These figures will serve as a precursor to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Projections indicate that annual CPI may rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. If no stronger-than-expected data emerges, the Federal Reserve is likely to lean toward reducing interest rates, with the possibility of halting monetary easing in the January meeting. The December 2024 global economic outlook report by Fitch highlights rising inflation risks in the U.S., driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending, upcoming tariff increases that raise import prices, and slowed labor force growth due to reduced net migration. Fitch forecasts that global growth will decline to 2.6% in 2025, a figure largely unchanged from its September report. However, this global stability masks significant shifts in the economic growth forecasts of major countries. U.S. economic growth for 2025 has been revised up by 0.5% to 2.1%, while the Eurozone’s growth forecast has been reduced by 0.3% to 1.2%. Similarly, China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 0.2% to 4.3%. The persistent inflationary trends observed in recent months are unlikely to change significantly with the November CPI report. The CPI data, due on Wednesday, is one of the final and most important indicators ahead of the December 18 Federal Reserve meeting. It may influence FOMC members’ decisions on whether to reduce or halt interest rate cuts. Currently, there is a strong probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, stated in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he has no plans to request the resignation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that he does not intend to replace Powell and will continue to work with him. In recent years, financial and tech markets have witnessed remarkable shifts. One such change is the shift in focus from semiconductor companies to AI-related software firms. After a significant rally in semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and AMD, market enthusiasm has now shifted toward software companies such as Snowflake and Palantir. This reflects a growing realization that AI’s true potential lies in its applications across industries, rather than solely in the hardware enabling it. Semiconductor firms were the initial beneficiaries of this AI boom, but the market is now gravitating toward companies implementing AI in practical and operational ways.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
4H USDCHF posible Sell set-up- On the 4H TF, market structure was bullish then the market structure changed character bearish after reaching a Daily order-block. - Now wait for price to pull-back into the 4H order block, then switch to the 15 min timeframe. - On the 15 min TF, wait for price to re-align bearish with the 4H TF market structure. - Mark out the point of interest(s)/ order-block(s) on the 15 min tf and set your sell limit order. - Target the 4H swing low or Daily Order block lower.
Short
by luckyveerasamy92
Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart The chart highlights a consolidation phase with price hovering between key support and resistance zones. The liquidity void at higher levels and current sideways price action suggest the market is preparing for a breakout or breakdown. Below is a detailed analysis of bullish and bearish scenarios, along with entry and exit points. Key Observations Market Structure: Price is consolidating near the $2,638–$2,640 level, with resistance overhead at $2,662 and support below at $2,613. A liquidity void exists above $2,662, indicating unfilled orders and a potential zone for breakout or rejection. Support Levels: $2,624–$2,626: Immediate support zone. $2,613–$2,615: Secondary support zone and the bottom of the current range. $2,602–$2,605: Strong demand zone where buyers previously stepped in. Resistance Levels: $2,662–$2,665: Immediate resistance zone. $2,711–$2,720: Major resistance and breakout target. $2,740–$2,760: Extended resistance zone, marking potential bullish targets. Volume Analysis: Buy Volume (2.537M) vs. Sell Volume (2.038M): Indicates mild buying interest, but the balance of power remains neutral. Delta Volume (158.21%): Suggests moderate seller dominance near resistance zones. Bullish Scenario Conditions for a Bullish Move: Price must hold above the $2,624–$2,626 support zone and break through $2,662 with strong volume. A breakout above $2,662 would likely trigger further buying momentum, targeting higher resistance levels. Entry Points: Aggressive Entry: Buy near the $2,624–$2,626 support zone, with a stop-loss below $2,613. Conservative Entry: Enter on a confirmed breakout and retest above $2,662, with a stop-loss below $2,650. Exit Points (Take Profit): First Target: $2,711 (key resistance zone). Second Target: $2,720–$2,740 (extended bullish target). Final Target: $2,758–$2,760 (major resistance). Invalidation: A breakdown below $2,613 would invalidate the bullish scenario. Bearish Scenario Conditions for a Bearish Move: Price fails to break above $2,662, indicating rejection at resistance. A confirmed breakdown below $2,624 would signal further downside pressure. Entry Points: Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,662, with a stop-loss above $2,670. Conservative Entry: Enter short after a confirmed breakdown below $2,624, with a stop-loss above $2,635. Exit Points (Take Profit): First Target: $2,613–$2,615 (immediate support zone). Second Target: $2,602–$2,605 (major demand zone). Final Target: $2,552–$2,555 (extended bearish target). Invalidation: A breakout above $2,670 would invalidate the bearish scenario. Key Indicators to Monitor Volume Dynamics: Increasing buy volume near $2,624 supports a bullish outlook. Rising sell volume near $2,662 would confirm bearish rejection. Breakout or Breakdown Levels: A breakout above $2,662 would signal bullish continuation. A breakdown below $2,624 would confirm bearish pressure. Liquidity Zones: The liquidity void above $2,662 could act as a magnet for price, especially if buyers dominate. Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels Bullish $2,624–$2,626 (Aggressive) or above $2,662 (Conservative) $2,613 $2,711, $2,740, $2,760 Bearish $2,662 (Aggressive) or below $2,624 (Conservative) $2,670 $2,615, $2,605, $2,555 Conclusion Bullish Outlook: A breakout above $2,662 could trigger a rally toward $2,711 or higher. Bearish Outlook: Rejection at $2,662 or a breakdown below $2,624 could lead to declines toward $2,605–$2,555. Traders should closely watch price behavior around the $2,662 resistance and $2,624 support levels, as they will likely dictate the next significant move. Risk management with tight stop-losses is essential in this range-bound environment.
FX:XAUUSD
by ProspireWealth
1MBABYDOGE/USDT- BUY SETUPBINANCE:1MBABYDOGEUSDT ✔︎ENTRY : 0.0025236 🏓TARGETS : ✔︎T1 : 0.0028496 ✘STOP : 0.0023737 💡Reason for this trade: This trade gives my trading system a sign of strength: • My trading system is based on liquidity and reversal zones. • When the liquidity is swept from one side under certain conditions, we will wait for the price on the other side. The liquidity will attract the price like a magnet. • the first side that has been swept: 1- bearish FVG has been rotation 2- balance price range created as a defence zone • Opposite side targets: 1- range high 💡Entry setup 1- reclaim defence zone (balance price range) ⚠️WARNING: • I'm not a financial advisor. • Do your own research (DYOR).
BINANCE:1MBABYDOGEUSDTLong
by HB_Trading1
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/9/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21670.75 - PR Low: 21626.75 - NZ Spread: 98.5 No key scheduled economic events Holding auction in ATHs - QQQ daily gap below 520 Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 12/9) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 263.85 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 293K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5