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Supply and Demand

Nasdaq Futures: Pre-Holiday Moves and Key Trading ZonesStart your week with a detailed analysis of Nasdaq futures for Monday, December 23, 2024. With the holiday season upon us, expect reduced volatility and volume, but opportunities still abound. Here's what you'll gain: 📈 Long Opportunities: Key zones like 21,560–21,630 and 21,300, targeting moves toward 21,880. 📉 Short Setups: Areas to watch include 21,560 and 21,720, with potential drops to 21,300. 📊 Market Insights: Analysis of the post-FED movements and strategies for trading during low-volume periods. Whether you're looking to trade longs or shorts, this video breaks down the actionable zones and strategies for the day. 🔗 Subscribe now for expert market insights, daily trading strategies, and exclusive content. Take your trading to the next level today!
CME_MINI:MNQH2025
by BinvestorsTrading
XAUUSD - Gold will welcome the holidays?!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1-hour time frame and is trading in its short-term ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the channel, we can see the continuation of gold's decline and seeing the demand zone. Within the demand range of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the upward movement continues, gold can be sold in the supply zone. Without a doubt, 2024 has been the year of the US dollar. While high inflation continued to spread across Europe and other parts of the world in 2023, the Federal Reserve reported progress in controlling price growth. Similar to last year, other central banks have been more proactive in reducing interest rates, but the slow pace of inflation containment has delayed the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting process. Federal Reserve officials now anticipate only two 0.25% interest rate cuts in 2025. As a result, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tighter monetary stance compared to other major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, which is currently increasing its interest rates. This decision follows previous rate cuts implemented earlier this year, including a 50-basis-point reduction in September and a 25-basis-point cut in November. Overall, these measures have resulted in a full 1% decrease in the benchmark rate, signaling a shift in the Federal Reserve’s approach to the current economic environment. By lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve aims to stimulate consumption while continuing to monitor inflationary pressures. Although these pressures have generally subsided, they have slightly risen in recent months. Nonetheless, the decision to reduce rates could benefit borrowers by lowering consumer interest rates, making it more affordable to buy homes, secure personal loans, or borrow funds in other areas. However, the implications extend beyond lending. Adjustments to the Federal Reserve’s interest rates could create a complex environment for investors, particularly those drawn to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Historically, the relationship between interest rates and gold prices has been inversely proportional. Lower rates typically increase gold valuations, as the reduced cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold makes it more appealing, thereby driving up demand and prices. However, it is crucial to understand that the impact of interest rate decisions on gold prices operates within a broader network of interconnected factors beyond monetary policy. For investors considering adding gold to their portfolios, understanding this broader context is essential. In addition to Federal Reserve policies, one key driver of the gold market is central bank purchases, particularly by emerging economies seeking to diversify their reserves. These purchases have recently reached historic levels, providing substantial support for gold prices. Global trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and evolving industrial demand—especially from technology and renewable energy sectors—also add layers of complexity to the gold market. In the first quarter of this year, India’s central bank recorded a net purchase of 77 tons of gold, followed by Turkey’s central bank with 72 tons, increasing the share of gold in its foreign reserves to 34%. Poland, with a purchase of 69 tons, was the third-largest buyer, while China, traditionally the largest gold buyer in recent years, ranked fourth with less than 30 tons. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has predicted in its 2025 global outlook report that the coming year will be marked by increased geopolitical fragmentation and the formation of rival economic and political blocs. These developments are likely to accelerate the trend of de-dollarization and bolster gold purchases. Moreover, the strength of the US dollar continues to play a crucial role in gold pricing. However, factors such as relative economic growth rates, trade balances, and international capital flows can overshadow this influence.For instance, the dollar may strengthen if major economies face significant challenges or if investors seek safe-haven currencies during market turmoil—even in a rate-cut environment. Inflation expectations also strongly influence the gold market. While moderate inflation typically supports gold as a store of value, extreme inflation may shift investment patterns, potentially reducing demand if other assets offer higher returns. Changes in consumer demand, particularly from major gold-buying countries, can also impact prices. Additionally, seasonal trends, such as increased gold purchases during festivals or weddings in these countries, may contribute to price fluctuations. Finally, US President Joe Biden signed a budget bill that will fund the government until mid-March next year, preventing a year-end shutdown. This legislation, recently approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate, ensures government operations continue until the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency next year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Pivot Points and Market TrendsUS Futures Rise Notably in Holiday-Shortened Week US stock futures were significantly higher on Monday after the S&P 500 posted its largest gain since early November on Friday. Technical Overview: As long as the price trades above 5971, the bullish trend will continue with potential upward targets at 5995 and 6022. However, if the price closes below 5971 on a 4-hour (4H) candle, a bearish move toward 5936 may follow. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5971 Resistance Levels: 5995, 6022, 6053 Support Levels: 5936, 5919, 5895 Trend Outlook: Downward by stability below 5971 Bullish Trend above 5971
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Technical Analysis of the Chart: XAUUSDOverview: Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Timeframe: 1H Current Price: $2,631.95 Key Observations: Volume Delta data indicates a strong buying interest at lower levels (highlighted near the $2,620 region). Major resistance levels are noted around $2,640 and higher. Trend indicators like moving averages show bearish momentum but are flattening, signaling potential reversal. Bullish Scenario Key Levels: Support Zones: $2,620 - $2,610 (Strong Buy Zone): Significant buying activity occurred in this region, with delta volume exceeding 180%. Buyers are stepping in to defend this zone. Target Zones for Bullish Momentum: $2,645 (First Resistance Zone): Represents previous selling pressure with visible red volume bars. $2,665 - $2,670: Secondary target zone where supply may increase, marked by red bands. Entry and Exit Points: Entry: $2,625 - $2,630: On a retest of the $2,620 support or confirmation of a breakout above the $2,635 consolidation zone. Stop Loss: Place below $2,615 (last swing low), accounting for a potential false breakout. Target 1: $2,645 Target 2: $2,665 Indicators Supporting Bullish Case: Volume Analysis: High delta buying at lower levels signals accumulation. Price Structure: Double-bottom-like structure forming between $2,610-$2,620. Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages are flattening, indicating momentum is slowing down. Bearish Scenario Key Levels: Resistance Zones: $2,640 - $2,645: Major selling pressure zone with increased sell delta observed. $2,660 - $2,665: Extended resistance zone from previous price action. Support Targets if Bearish Breakdown Occurs: $2,610: Immediate downside target if buyers fail to defend. $2,580 - $2,590 (Next Major Support Zone): Strong buying interest seen historically in this region. Entry and Exit Points: Entry: $2,635 - $2,640: Look for a rejection or bearish candlestick confirmation near resistance zones. Stop Loss: Place above $2,645, considering possible fakeouts. Target 1: $2,610 Target 2: $2,590 Indicators Supporting Bearish Case: Volume Delta: Heavy selling pressure is visible in regions above $2,640. Trend Structure: Price remains in a larger downtrend despite recent consolidation. Neutral Scenario and Probable Consolidation If the price stays between $2,620 and $2,645 without clear direction, expect choppy sideways movement. For such scenarios: Trade within the range. Buy near $2,620 and sell near $2,645 with tight stop-loss levels. Conclusion Bullish Bias: Above $2,635 with strong buying interest at $2,620-$2,610. Bearish Bias: Below $2,620 with heavy resistance near $2,645. It’s crucial to monitor the price action and volume closely at these levels for confirmation before initiating trades.
FX:XAUUSD
by ProspireWealth
Bitcoin - Bitcoin went below $100,000!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin sell positions can be looked for in supply zones. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from its peak of $108,135 on December 17 to below $95,000. Powell’s comments, which signaled the Fed’s ongoing battle against inflation, triggered a sharp selloff in the cryptocurrency market. He indicated that only two interest rate cuts might occur in 2025, as opposed to the four cuts previously anticipated. Additionally, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.5%. Even the 2026 forecast stands at 2.1%, exceeding the central bank’s 2% target. This suggests that inflation could persist for another two years, compelling the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than initially projected. Bitcoin ETFs, after experiencing 15 consecutive days of capital inflows, saw an unprecedented $680 million outflow on Thursday. This trend continued into Friday, with an additional $270 million withdrawn. Cryptocurrency investors, reacting to the Fed’s decision to slow monetary easing next year, moved substantial capital out of the market. In the United States, Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management (AUM). Despite gold ETFs’ 20-year history, Bitcoin ETFs now manage $129.3 billion, compared to $128.9 billion for gold ETFs. MicroStrategy, a company renowned for its massive Bitcoin holdings, successfully entered the Nasdaq index. With 439,000 Bitcoins valued at $42.64 billion, the company controls approximately 2% of the total Bitcoin supply. This milestone highlights MicroStrategy’s strong position in the Bitcoin market and has boosted its stock price (MSTR) to $364.20. The company’s innovative strategy of leveraging Bitcoin as a growth asset showcases a unique approach in the financial world. Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily decreased in recent years. By October 2024, its monthly volatility had dropped to 11%, lower than that of high-profile tech stocks like Tesla (24%), AMD (16%), and Nvidia (12%). Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently shared his outlook on the cryptocurrency market. He predicted a “horrific collapse” around the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. Hayes wrote, “The market believes Trump and his team can deliver immediate economic and political miracles,” but pointed to a gap between investor expectations and the “absence of quick, viable policy solutions.” Hayes forecasted that implementing changes to cryptocurrency policies would likely take far longer than the market anticipates. He added, “The market will soon realize that Trump, at best, has only a year to execute any policy changes in or around January 20. This realization will trigger a massive selloff in cryptocurrencies and other Trump-related trades.” He also predicted that a “steep decline” would occur around Trump’s inauguration day, followed by a “crack-up boom phase” in late 2025. This phase, typically seen after financial crises, is characterized by rapid price increases, high inflation, and financial instability.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, waiting for the final days of Santa Rally?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the supply zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the demand zone will provide us with the conditions to buy it. The Federal Reserve, in its latest meeting, reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.25%–4.50%. However, FOMC members now forecast the 2025 interest rate to hover around 3.9%, higher than their September projection of 3.4%. Markets were largely surprised by the Fed’s hawkish stance, especially following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indirectly emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that policymakers are currently assessing the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth. This shift has unsettled investors, dampening the optimistic market sentiment that typically precedes the Christmas holiday. Concerns are rising that if the Trump administration follows through on its campaign promises regarding taxes, tariffs, and immigration, the Fed may have to reverse its rate-cutting trajectory and adopt rate hikes instead. The outlook for 2025 has also seen adjustments. The Federal Reserve now expects only two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts forecasted in September. This adjustment reflects the persistent inflation that remains above the central bank’s target range. Following the Fed’s announcement, the S&P 500 experienced its steepest decline in 27 months, falling over 3.5%. The last time the U.S. stock index saw such a significant drop was in September 2022, during peak inflation and amid aggressive monetary tightening. Similarly, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.6%, marking its worst decline in five months. Morgan Stanley also revised its outlook for the Fed, predicting two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, instead of the previously anticipated three cuts. On the economic front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, scheduled for release today, is likely to draw market attention. This index has risen steadily over the past two months, while one of its components—the sub-index measuring “job finding difficulty”—has declined during the same period. Given its strong correlation with the official unemployment rate, a further drop in December could signal job growth and a stronger dollar. On Tuesday, November data for durable goods orders and new home sales will be released. Durable goods orders, which grew by 0.3% in October, are expected to decline by 0.4% month-over-month. However, investors often focus on the more specific “non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft),” which tends to exhibit less volatility and is a key input for GDP calculations. Overall, if market volatility persists during the holiday season, equities and bonds are likely to be impacted. The Fed’s hawkish tone is unfavorable for stocks, suggesting continued selling pressure as Treasury yields rise. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week. If demand falls short of expectations, bond yields could face additional upward pressure. Deutsche Bank, in a recent note, highlighted a significant shift in the Fed’s tone. Although the Fed reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%–4.50%, analysts noted a more hawkish stance than expected. One key indicator of this shift is the upward revision of the 2025 median inflation forecast to 2.5%, which Deutsche Bank described as “notable.” According to this report, the Fed does not anticipate inflation returning to its 2% target until 2027. Furthermore, the Fed’s updated forward guidance lacked any clear indications of future rate cuts. Jerome Powell described the December rate cut as a “difficult decision,” which faced opposition from Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed. Deutsche Bank analysts believe the Fed is unlikely to take any action during its January meeting, and the current pause could extend into a prolonged hold throughout 2025. Forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain above 4% next year, with no additional cuts anticipated.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/23/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21683.00 - PR Low: 21566.00 - NZ Spread: 262.25 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Weekend gap up back to Friday's highs - North of daily Keltner average cloud - Friday session set pivot low, front running 21000 - QQQ gap below Dec 2 session filled - Market sentiment, expecting low participation for Christmas week Session Open Stats (As of 12:40 AM 12/23) - Weekend Gap: +0.07% (open < 21552) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 370.87 - Volume: 31K - Open Int: 237K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -3.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Master Gold Trading with Precise Price Action Strategies!FXOPEN:XAUUSD Alexgoldhunter Chart Analysis: CFDs on Gold (US$/OZ) 1-Hour Timeframe Current Market Structure Current Price: $2,623.689 Resistance Levels: 2,650.000 USD 2,645.861 USD 2,635.056476 USD (0.786 Fibonacci level) 2,629.61603 USD (0.705 Fibonacci level) 2,623.775288 USD (0.618 Fibonacci level) Support Levels: 2,615.847 USD (0.5 Fibonacci level) 2,607.921412 USD (0.382 Fibonacci level) 2,588.000 USD 2,578.000 USD Indicators RSI: 63.41 (indicating neutral to slightly bullish sentiment) MACD: Shows bullish momentum with the MACD line above the signal line Volume Profile: High trading activity around $2,700, indicating strong support/resistance zones Buy Strategy Confirmation: Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) near the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($2,615.847 USD). Ensure RSI remains above 50, indicating bullish momentum. Entry: Enter a buy position around the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($2,615.847 USD). Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the next support level at $2,578.000 USD to manage risk. Take Profit: Aim for a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, targeting around $2,645.861 USD (resistance level) and $2,650.000 USD. Sell Strategy Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing) near the resistance levels around $2,650.000 USD. Ensure RSI remains below 50, indicating bearish momentum. Entry: Enter a sell position around the resistance level at $2,650.000 USD. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the strong resistance level at $2,655.000 USD to manage risk. Take Profit: Aim for a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, targeting around $2,615.847 USD (0.5 Fibonacci level) and $2,607.921412 USD (0.382 Fibonacci level). VIP Signal Format entry: $2,615.847 USD tp1: $2,645.861 USD tp2: $2,650.000 USD sl: $2,578.000 USD This analysis uses price action techniques to generate a structured buy and sell strategy for CFDs on Gold (US$/OZ). If you need further details or adjustments, feel free to let me know! 📈😊 Follow @Alexgoldhunter for more strategic ideas and minds
TVC:GOLD
by Alexgoldhunter