Supplyanddemandanalysis
Bitcoin - Do The Bulls Stand A Chance?What's up traders! In today's breakdown, we're taking a look at some possible scenarios for Bitcoin in the coming days / weeks.
Let's dive right in...
Ticker: BTCUSD
Date: 04/21/23
Timeframe: 1H
Supply: 28525-28800 (1st red zone), 30280-30600 (2nd red zone)
Demand: 27560-27830 (green zone)
Commentary:
It seems like we finally got the break of the bullish momentum in the crypto market. For any upside continuation, this could be a much needed pullback for a healthier move back into 30k+ for bitcoin.
Until we break strong demand at 25000, we can count on bitcoin resuming its recovery so any significant bearish bias should be avoided. That being said, we need to be cautious of supply zones above if we are bullish.
The good thing is that this pullback has identified key supply zones for us that we need to be cautious of, making our long plays easier. We are currently approaching / already validating demand at ~27560-27830. There are a few plays we could target from here.
✅ Bullish Scenario 1: you want to see price hold this ~27560-27830 demand, find strength to move upwards and possibly give us a retest of this demand zone for a possible move back into supply around ~28525-28800. This will be the safer upside play.
✅ Bullish Scenario 2: you want to see price hold this ~27560-27830 demand, find strength, have volume build up to break the supply zone around ~28525-28800, and then retest the ~28525-28800 zone to possibly move into the highs from earlier this week and ~30280 supply.
🟥 Bearish Scenario 1: you want to see price approach supply from a couple weeks ago around ~28525-28800, sellers starting to accumulate and possibly catch a break and retest of this supply zone into demand at ~27560-27830 again. This will be the safer downside play.
🟥 Bearish Scenario 2: you want to see price break this ~27560-27830 demand, retest, find weakness again and possibly move into late March lows around ~27000.
📊 DBR & Demand Zone📍 What is Drop Base Rally in Trading?
The drop base rally pattern in technical analysis is a chart pattern that appears when the market falls, then enters a period of sideways price action, and finally, shows explosive upward movements. Market makers open buy orders from demand zones to have a long position in trading. This is some kind of study for technical analysis known as DBR. These patterns are the basis of supply/demand logics. In the showcased example, after a steep drop, the sale finally stopped, leaving bulls the option of buying at lower prices. However, purchasing power at that point was insufficient to reverse the market. Instead, the market starts moving sideways because neither buyers nor sellers could defeat the other party. Eventually, the price action entered the demand zone that was formed and recovered back to higher prices.
📍 How to identify Drop Base Rally pattern?
The drop base rally pattern contains three waves. As shown in the figure above.
🔹 Bearish wave: Drop
🔹 Sideways wave: Base.
🔹 Bullish wave (rally).
📍 Demand Zone
A demand zone is a price level where a significant amount of buying interest or demand for an asset is believed to exist. Traders use demand zones as potential areas of support where buying pressure could increase, causing the price to rebound or reverse. As shown in the example above, we entered a long trade once the price action reached that demand zone, with the entry being inside the zone and the stop loss below the zone.
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Multiple Timeframe Analysis| Are The Yens Pushing Up Higher?CADJPY and CHFJPY are on my radar this morning. I can see clean reversals and signs of higher highs. Now, I am in a position to trade them back to the higher timeframe highs.
You can see my full analysis and risk management strategy in the video.
Share your thoughts, like the video, and let me know if you trade these pairs as well. ✌🏾
USDCHF| New Low, New Trade SetupYesterday, USDCHD made a new lower low. This is known as a trend continuation. I love trades like this. They are what I call, pretty areas because it's easy to money trading with the trend(my personal opinion).
So, I'm going setting up my new setup for a sell. You'll see me set my sell up in this video.
If you find video in this analysis please like the video and comment your key takeaway or questions if you have any.
Enjoy😍
Shaquan
Bitcoin Short Forecast at 17.3k #supplyanddemandBINANCE:BTCUSD
so far bitcoin is bearish on HTF still but that doesn't mean we can't trade it, so im waiting for confirmations to short it targeting 16.8k to buy back, ofc if we see a reason to do so
that's a day trade style not a long-term short or long or any type of investment, I'm not an advisor
also avoid news because it can kill you
USDCHF POSSIBLE SETUPThis could be a classic text book setup on usdchf. As u see there was a trend line break with a gap testing previous supply zone. two things- 1 we couud see a rejection and test previous demand then rocket up or 2 we get a break of the supply and continue rallying up. 2 entries possible is the fairvalue gap fill and also demand zone. or 2 a break and retest of the supply zone.
Might be a good pair to watch.
S&P500 – TRADES | KW47 | INTRADAYIn today's post I present relevant marks of the S&P500 for the next week, which could support the one or the other, in their own analysis.
= since it is a very short-term time frame, I will not comment further.
= the technical analysis approaches, are shown in individual pictures in the contribution. So that an individual interpretation of the respective - standing alone - is possible.
= the title picture shows an example, of a possible trade. This is one of many possible setups, because the current course is not able to take a clear direction.
The following methods are used and shown in the following:
- SUPPLY&DEMAND ZONES
- FIBONACCI LEVEL
- POINTS OF INTEREST
- TREND LINES
SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES
„4 hour + 1 day – time window“
„1 hour – time window“
„1-4 hour + 1 day – time window“
FIBONACCI LEVEL
„Intraday - time window“
„Day - time window“
POINTS OF INTEREST
„4 hour - time window“
TRENDLINES
„Intraday - time window“
„Day - time window“
RAW VERSION WITHOUT DRAWINGS
„4 hour - time window“
„1 hour - time window“
> Feel free to discuss this in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on this.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
Institutional Demand: AUD/JPY LongHi mate,
One of the AUD pairs on my watch list for the upcoming 48hours is AUD/JPY long from weekly and daily demand. When price finally reaches our value area, I'll wait for the standard 4hour entries to develop and take (if valid) our fixed risk to reward of 1:3 as explained in the previous recap.
Our trading style is extremely mechanical, so might be a bit boring. Yet better be boring and profitable than excited and poor.
More things will be shared here soon!
Kind regards,
MNieveld
What I think about Stocks & CryptoHi mate,
First of all thanks for joining in here today, let's share my views.
You probably know my view on the crypto and stockmarket for months now, yet I have not updated it on tradingview, so let's share.. With the world in panic due to countless of different reasons, the future is not that bright in the short-term for the stock market. We're definitely in a crisis, if not many... with the biggest issue on earth being the fact that most of our population is retiring and there are literally not enough people to replace this working group. No robots cannot replace all of us either, you need more people to get the tech ready for that.. might be a bit to late now. (It's not 2019 anymore where working w/ materials, transport and unlimited free funding was great)
The boomer generation is the largest, and since that big boost in population, we've been declining ever since. This will impact the world more than it ever did, and that all together with Covid, War, Debt, and so many more issues.. might result in some slower growth the upcoming decades. Yeah a lot of markets such as real estate, but also company sales growth rely on population growth etc.. sadly all data suggests that many countries will have less and less working people available these upcoming 10 - 20 years.
Since all of this has been unfolding for a while now, my views on the Crypto markets and Stocks are the following: This is not the bottom yet, but a great opportunity for those that love to dollar cost average multiple cryptocurrencies and of course Berkshire or the S&P500 Index! Personally, I think that the US will come out very nicely from all of this, better than the rest of the world. (Let me know if you want my arguments for this)
You can see 3 cycles here on BTC and this is where I expect price to go to, I don't care about when this happens all I care about when it happens because Stocks probably be very low at time as well. With both at great prices, this might be an interesting place to look for opportunities.
Kind regards,
MNieveld
Gold @ XAUUSD FOMC aftermath“Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone,” said Powell.
0.75 basis points has been increased yesterday, it showed US FED aggressively want to curb the inflation.
Base on yesterday data Gold price looks like didnt show any positive outcome to change into bullish direction for quite sometime - probably until end of Q4/2022
Potential to re-buy again at 1654.05 area and sell back at 1687.81.
EURGBP need more confirmations.MA25 (the white line) of 4H candles plays and important role in trend finding process for Intraday trading. Let's see if the pair is able to break the MA25 down or not. if so short the pair.
But in term of long trades regarding the recent weakness of the super bullish trend, I don't enter a long trade until the 0.8717 is perfectly broken.
AUDUSD Possible test to the upsideLooking at audusd we have seen some break of structure to the upside and a possible test of some liquidity zone particularly on the 4h chart>
We have seen that the price has rallied from last week. On the 1h chart i see a possible retest of previous low possibly triggering sellside liquidity and rebalancing on the fairvalue gap from the 4h chart as seen on the grey box then a continue to move higher to test the higher supply zones.
Best to look for a lower time frame entry for a possible buy setup when price reaches the demand zone or the fairvalue gapzones
let me know what you think.