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10 Brutal Truths About Why Retail Support & Resistance Fail !CAPITALCOM:GOLD 10 Reasons Why Retail Support and Resistance Levels Fail: Unlocking Gann’s Secrets to Market Mastery Here’s a deeply researched, professional explanation for each point, infused with Gann’s quotes, examples, and concepts, to open the eyes of traders to why retail methods often fail and how Gann's wisdom provides clarity. 1. Static Levels in a Dynamic Market - Explanation: Retail traders often draw support and resistance (S/R) lines as static horizontal levels, expecting the market to repeatedly respect them. However, Gann emphasized the dynamic nature of markets, stating: "Markets are never still; they are always moving, reflecting time and price interplay." Markets are influenced by cycles, trends, and time frames, making S/R levels fluid rather than fixed. For instance, Gann’s Square of Nine shows how support and resistance rotate based on angles and time increments, offering precise levels that adapt dynamically. Retail traders fail to adjust their levels as time progresses, missing key changes in price behavior. 2. Failure to Incorporate Time - Explanation: Retail S/R methods typically ignore the role of time, which is a critical element in Gann's work. Gann wrote: "Time is the most important factor in determining market movements." Support may fail not because the level was invalid but because the "time factor" for that level has expired. For example, in Gann’s Time Cycles, support at a certain price might hold only for a specific duration. When that time passes, the level loses its relevance. Retail traders, unaware of such timing principles, are often blindsided when the market breaks their "strong" levels. 3. Lack of Confluence with Angles - Explanation: Gann’s methodologies prioritize the confluence of price and angle relationships. He believed that price moves in harmony with geometric angles, stating: "When price meets time at an angle, a change is imminent." Retail traders fail to consider these angular relationships, focusing only on flat horizontal lines. For example, a 45° angle from a significant low often acts as a true support, but retail traders, relying solely on previous price zones, miss these powerful turning points. 4. Overcrowding and Psychological Herding - Explanation: S/R levels widely used by retail traders often attract a large number of orders at the same price zone, making them predictable and vulnerable to institutional manipulation. Gann noted: "The crowd is often wrong, and the minority drives the market." Institutions exploit this herding by triggering stop-losses just below support or above resistance, creating false breakouts. For instance, Gann’s "Law of Vibration" explains how markets seek equilibrium by disrupting imbalances created by crowd psychology. 5. Ignoring Volume Analysis Explanation: Retail traders rarely integrate volume into their S/R analysis. Gann emphasized the importance of volume, stating: "Price movements must be confirmed by volume to validate strength." Support may appear to hold, but without accompanying volume, the level lacks significance. A practical Gann-based example would involve observing increased volume near a critical angle or price zone, signaling genuine strength or weakness at that level. 6. Using Recent Highs/Lows Without Context - Explanation: Many retail traders base S/R levels on recent highs and lows, assuming these are universally strong zones. Gann criticized such oversimplified approaches, writing: "The past governs the future, but only through proper analysis of cycles and patterns." Without analyzing historical patterns and cycles, these levels are often superficial. For example, Gann's Master Charts reveal that true resistance may lie at a harmonic distance from an earlier historical pivot, not necessarily at the recent high. 7. Misunderstanding False Breakouts - Explanation: Retail traders often misinterpret false breakouts as failures of support or resistance. Gann explained this phenomenon through his price and time squares, stating: "A breakout without harmony is often a trap, designed to mislead the majority." For instance, a false breakout above resistance might align with a Gann angle signaling a reversal, confusing those relying solely on retail S/R levels. 8. Ignoring Market Structure and Trend - Explanation: Retail traders often focus on S/R levels without understanding the broader market structure or trend. Gann believed: "The trend is your friend until time signals the end." Support is more likely to hold in an uptrend, while resistance is stronger in a downtrend. A classic Gann principle involves combining market structure with angular analysis to determine whether S/R levels will hold or break. 9. Failure to Account for Gann's Price Harmonies - Explanation: Gann’s studies reveal that price moves in harmonic relationships, often tied to Fibonacci ratios and geometric principles. Retail traders using arbitrary S/R levels fail to respect these harmonies. For example, Gann's observation of price doubling or halving (e.g., $50 to $100) often defines true support or resistance. 10. Reliance on One-Timeframe Analysis - Explanation: Retail traders frequently analyze S/R on a single timeframe, missing the interplay between multiple timeframes. Gann emphasized multi-timeframe alignment, writing: "The major trend governs the minor trend, and the minor trend refines the major." Support on an hourly chart may fail if it conflicts with resistance on a daily chart. Gann’s multi-timeframe methods ensure alignment, reducing the likelihood of failure. Updated Closing Thought- By understanding the reasons why retail support and resistance often fail and incorporating Gann’s time-tested principles, traders can elevate their skills to a professional level. Gann's focus on time, price, and geometry provides a roadmap to understanding the market with unparalleled precision. This content is invaluable for anyone seeking trading mastery, so don't keep it to yourself! Save this and share it with your friends so they can benefit too. Follow for more absolutely valuable and free trading insights!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by GannAstroTrader
1
A case for long term investment and DCANYSE:VALE Is at an inflection point. It is a stock I have been watching for a long time as it has a nice Elliott wave pattern (If correct) Here I present the Weekly chart as I consider it for my long term portfolio (3+ years BUY and Hold) Although the chart presented here looks great (Read: Phenomenal), as an analyst utilising multiple methods, the story does not unfold as easily as I'd like. As can be seen in the snapshot below there are multiple 'anomalies' still outstanding at those green zones on the magnified weekly chart. They may or may not be filled, but our awareness of them should cause us to move forward with caution. On the Elliottwave side of things, there are two ways of looking at this. Either the recent top at ~$23 was wave i of 3 of (3) or the top of Primary w(1). If the latter is true then we will likely drop lower in to one of the green bands. So the question remains - how do we take advantage of this given a drop to just above $3? 1) You can Dollar Cost Average in at each stage distributing your allocated capital 2) Wait for a bounce in a five wave move and enter at the correction for w2 of that bounce. Use the low for a stop loss. There is no perfect way to manage the unknowns, you can only manage your primary objective, which should be to safeguard your capital - If you want to know my thoughts on NYSE:VALE and other names give this a boost and follow. best of luck!
NYSE:VALE
by investornomics
3
BPCL 240 MINS MY VIEW The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Please keep your comments useful & respectful. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. Thanks for your support Tradelikemee Academy Saanjayy KG
NSE:BPCLShort
by Tradelikemee
Copart (CPRT) LongAsset Class: Stocks Income Type: Daily Symbol: CPRT Trade Type: Long Trends: Short Term: Up Long Term: Down Set-Up Parameters: Entry: 51.74 (at the Breakout) Stop: 50.88 TP 54.28 (3:1) Trade idea: A breakout from a descending channel on the 1H , zone formed by a drop-base-rally with Fair Value Gap . The setup has a 3:1 RRR. The RSI is oversold , heading up, and showing divergence. !!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry. Trade management: **When price hits 1:1 or T1, consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback. **Disclaimer**: The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
NASDAQ:CPRTLong
by MESHANL
1
GBPUSD BULLISH **British pound GBP Value Correlation to USD >We are now in the Oversold region Signaling for a bullish trend week. Technicals: >Price entered the Demand Zone last week, and could be ready to rally this week. >We can see 2 consecutive higher lows >Price could reach to the opposing Supply Zone that initiated the bearish imbalance. OTHERS: >Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week >Long term traders can position for a Sell for when it reached the opposing supply zone and we get an overbought reading ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Long
by TradersPod
GBPJPY BUY TRADE Oct 8 2024This trade comes to fruition after checking for manipulation of lows using 4H-1H-30min-15min. Allowing me to activate the said pending order -Buy limit during London session (metatrader 4 platform) . I marked that demand because using the order flow, I can see enough evidence to go long. Risking 0.5% of the capital. Every trade that I initiate comes from the basic idea of supply and demand. (please check the attached charts for a detailed structure of entry and exit points) Always be patient and look for proof before you put pending order.
Long
by glyrad
2
DE40The German index DE40 has reached a zone where Daily timeframe buyers might step in, with a good chance of driving the price back up. The signal is to buy, but where to find the exact entry is something that each individual can figure out. I prefer to buy now, with a stop-loss slightly below the daily lows or if you are searching for best R:R, then wait until the price enters even deeper into the zone. In any case, stay cautious, as NFP could also cause some price fluctuations. Trade safe!
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by forex_member
1
NZDUSD STILL BEARISH >The New Zealand Dollar had an explosive rally last week, deeply penetrating and ultimately invalidating the highlighted supply zone, indicating the exhaustion of any remaining unfilled orders. >We can now observe five invalidated supply zones lined up on the chart. >Above these zones lies a high-quality, fresh supply zone, where significant stop-loss orders and a large volume of sell orders could potentially accumulate in anticipation of the upcoming FED speech on Thursday, which may act as a catalyst for a sharp drop. >The US Dollar Index remains undervalued (refer to my USD analysis for more insights). >Given that the NZD is currently overvalued, the price may soon seek reasons to turn bearish. For this to happen, a considerable volume of sell orders will be needed to trigger a downward move. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Short
by TradersPod
4
AUDUSD SHORT >We have a Rally-Base-Drop(RBD) Weekly Supply Zone coverage for the RBD Daily Supply Zone >We have a high quality Leg-out(Imbalance) from Weekly TF and an Explosive leg-out from Daily Supply *Stochastic RSI confirmation (This is not a Timing tool, We always follow the Law of Supply and Demand): -Stoch RSI is at Overvalued Zone, meaning price is looking for a Supply Zone to Drop the price. In AUDUSD's case, it already hit the Supply zone. Ride the trend. >5,10,15 year Seasonality is Down-trending until 1st week of October. **NOTE** -Seasonality tool is just a set-up and an add-on guide. -Supply and Demand is our timing tool. Signal is good until 1st week of October or until Updated. Trade Safe
Short
by TradersPod
$BTC | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: - Price action is considered at Overbought conditions in both Daily and H4 Timeframes - Price action is bouncing off the 78% Fibo retracement line - Aiming for a retracement to the Fibo Extension's 61% or 78% Fundamental Confluences: - The crypto market space has no new impetus at the moment and is in consolidation mode after the risk-on rallies - Market sentiment is positive with FED cutting rate, but if FED cut rates, what does it mean? Something is wrong with the markets that the FED needs to cut rate. - In the view that the risk-on rally is overdone now.
Short
by weekendanalyst
$PFE | Allocation/Buy Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: - Price is in Oversold Conditions in D1 timeframe - Price action bouncing off 150% Fibo Extension - Price is trying to go back above the Interest Zone to give some bullish momentum to the stock Fundamental Confluences: -Regardless how bad the negative rumours are ongoing about the side-effects from Pfizer; they are still considered a strong market leader in the Pharma industry - They had a good response on a testing of their recent respiratory drug - Value? ---- Health sector in your Portfolio will never be wrong with the global aging population. I am putting this trade on as either into my Long-Term Portfolio or Swing trade for $PFE. Depending on how market develops, I may decide to hold this bag and allocate more into it at the 178% Fibo Extension levels or cut my Buy position as shown. -----
NYSE:PFELong
by weekendanalyst
$HBAR | Allocation | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: - Price action has bounced off a Support trendline and is in the range of a Demand Zone - Price action is also close to an all-time low Fundamental Confluences: - HBAR is a Layer 1 blockchain which has potential for further adoption - Recently in April, there was a big spike in CRYPTOCAP:HBAR price after an announcement that blockchain firms Archax and Ownera tokenized BlackRock's ICS UST Funds on Hedera - Blackrock came out and clear the air that they are not involved with Hedera; the 2 firms were the ones who were involved in tokenizing it - Although it is not a direct involvement by BlackRock, it gave HBAR Foundation alot of attention (potential moving forward) ________________________________ With the above fundamentals, I will allocate my first tranche of HBAR allocation for my Long-Term portfolio. I may trade on this pair with a tight SL level if it breaks below the Red Line shown. Likely to hold onto this pair at least till it reaches the 161% Fibo Extension Supply Zone. Remember, DYOR. ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
Long
by weekendanalyst
75: Comprehensive Guide to Volume Profiles and Volume in TradingWhat is a Volume Profile? A Volume Profile is an advanced charting tool that plots the amount of trading activity (volume) across different price levels over a specific period. Unlike traditional volume indicators that only show volume over time, Volume Profiles provide insights into where the majority of trading took place, highlighting key areas of support and resistance, as well as zones of high and low interest among traders. Key Components of Volume Profiles: 1. Point of Control (POC) : This is the price level where the highest volume of trades occurred. The POC is a crucial level because it represents the price at which traders found the most value, making it a strong indicator of support or resistance. 2. Value Area (VA) : The Value Area represents the range of prices where approximately 70% of the volume was traded. This area is divided into the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL). The VA is significant because it identifies the zone where most market participants were active, providing a clear picture of market consensus on value. 3. High Volume Nodes (HVN) and Low Volume Nodes (LVN) : HVNs are price levels where there was a large amount of trading activity, indicating significant interest and often serving as strong support or resistance levels. LVNs, on the other hand, represent areas with minimal trading activity, where prices tend to move quickly due to the lack of interest. The Importance of Volume in Trading Volume is a fundamental aspect of market analysis, offering insights into the strength and sustainability of price movements. It reflects the level of participation in a market, indicating the intensity of buying or selling at different price levels. - Confirmation of Price Movements : High volume confirms the legitimacy of a price move. For example, a price breakout from a resistance level on high volume is more likely to be sustained than one on low volume. - Reversals and Continuations : Spikes in volume can signal potential reversals, especially when occurring at significant price levels such as the POC or near the VA boundaries. Conversely, a sustained high volume along a trend can indicate its continuation. - Validation of Support and Resistance : Volume at key levels like the POC, VAH, and VAL helps validate these areas as strong support or resistance. When price interacts with these levels on high volume, it suggests that many market participants are active, reinforcing the importance of these price levels. How to Interpret and Use Volume Profiles: 1. Identifying Key Price Levels : - The POC acts as a magnet for price, often drawing the price back to it when it moves away. This level is crucial for identifying potential areas of reversal or consolidation. - The Value Area is where the majority of the trading activity occurs. Prices above the VAH might indicate an overbought condition, while prices below the VAL could suggest an oversold market. 2. Volume and Market Sentiment : - High Volume Nodes indicate areas of significant interest, where prices tend to stabilize due to heavy trading. These areas often become zones of accumulation or distribution, depending on market conditions. - Low Volume Nodes indicate price levels with minimal trading interest, where prices may move quickly and encounter less resistance, often leading to rapid price changes or breakouts. 3. Order Flow and Large Volume Blocks : - Large blocks of volume, particularly at HVNs, suggest the presence of institutional traders or significant market participants placing large orders. These zones are critical because they reflect where big players are accumulating or distributing their positions. As a result, these areas tend to create strong support or resistance levels that can define future market behavior. 4. Dynamic vs. Static Profiles : - Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR): This type of profile updates as you scroll through your chart, dynamically showing the volume distribution for the visible price range. It’s useful for analyzing the current market context and finding immediate trading opportunities. - Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP): This profile is static, showing volume data for a specified price range or time period. It’s valuable for comparing current price action to historical data, helping identify long-term support and resistance levels. Practical Tips for Using Volume Profiles : 1. Customization and Settings : - Adjust the number of rows or ticks per row in your Volume Profile settings to get a more detailed or broader view of volume distribution. More rows will give you finer detail, while fewer rows will smooth out the data, highlighting major trends. 2. Combining with Other Indicators : - Use Volume Profiles in conjunction with other technical indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD to confirm trading signals and enhance the reliability of your analysis. 3. Adapting to Different Timeframes : - Tailor your Volume Profile analysis to your trading style. For day traders, shorter timeframes (e.g., 5, 15, 30 minutes) might be more relevant, while swing traders or investors might focus on daily, weekly, or even monthly profiles to identify long-term trends and key levels. 4. Observing Market Reactions at Key Levels : - Pay close attention to how the market reacts when it approaches HVNs, LVNs, the POC, or the boundaries of the Value Area. These reactions can provide clues about future price movements and potential trading opportunities. Volume Profiles offer a deep and nuanced view of market behavior by highlighting where significant trading activity has occurred at different price levels. By understanding the interaction between volume and price, traders can make more informed decisions, identify key levels for entry and exit, and gain insights into market sentiment. Integrating Volume Profile analysis into your trading strategy can provide a significant edge, enhancing your ability to navigate the complexities of financial markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by SeventyFive-Invest
GBPAUD | Short D1 | Market Exec |Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are close to Overbought Conditions on D1 and Overbought in both H1 and H4 time-frames - Price action is close to a Supply Zone - Price action is close to multiple Resistance Trendlines Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 1.9270 - 1.9380 SL @ 1.9503 TP 1 @ 1.9017 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 1.8745 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.87 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only.
Short
by weekendanalyst