Cycle Peak for BBQ sell now avoid getting smokedAdvocates of capitalism are very apt to appeal to the sacred principles of liberty, which are embodied in one maxim:
The fortunate must not be restrained in the exercise of tyranny over the unfortunate.
Bertrand Russell
Supplychain
$NOV - Oil Drilling Equipment SupplierIf you missed out on the oil and crude plays of recent weeks, this play might be for you.
Oil drillers are allegedly feeling the pain of a worker shortage, and drilling equipment shortage.
According to CNN , "They can't find people, and can't find equipment," said Robert McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. "It's not like they're available at a premium price. They're just not available."
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Wellbore Technologies, Completion & Production Solutions, and Rig Technologies.
So this equation is simple. NOV makes the drilling supplies that companies are so eager to find right now. The stock is also at historic lows.
This could be a very fun play heading forward.
$RIVN - Ready to Make New LowsEarnings were not kind to $LCID.
Lucid Group cut its car production forecast for this year by as much as 40%.
The company cited supply chain constraints and parts quality issues for slashing production to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles, down from initial expectations of 20,000.
“This reflects the extraordinary supply chain and logistics challenges we’ve encountered and our unrelenting focus on delivering the highest-quality products,” Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson said in a statement. “We remain confident in our ability to capture the tremendous opportunities ahead given our technology leadership and strong demand for our cars.”
It hasn't been much different for car companies across the world, EV or not.
This brings us to RIVN. A stock that has been cratering from its highs earlier this year. They report earnings on March 10th. The same day CPI is released. Talk about a double whammy.
Supply chain constraints remain and I expect RIVN to guide in a very similar manner to LCID. They are both in the early innings of their life cycle as companies and not as well equipped to handle inflationary and supply risks like the seasoned TSLA. Until this point I had not even mentioned the tremendous chip shortage.
Expect RIVN to only make new lows from here on out with this inverted cup and handle setup as noted above.
Uranium Preparing for an 80% Move UpwardsThe SPROTT Physical Uranium Trust TSX:U.U is showing a triangle formation on the daily chart. There is a number of reasons why I am inclined towards higher Uranium prices:
1. Rising inflation.
2. Rising commodity prices.
3. Supply chain problems (although doesn't apply to Uranium that much).
4. Energy Crisis!
5. The world starting to see that Nuclear energy is the proper choice forward until we can transition to fully renewable energy infrastructure in 50 years or more. (this one will not affect price soon of course).
6. Uranium is not expensive as fuel at all. It costs only 5% of the annual expenditure of a nuclear plant. So price has a lot of room to go up before it's considered too expensive.
7. We have a Physical Uranium Trust now. So the market has direct exposure to physical uranium that was never there before.
With all that, the move hasn't yet been confirmed because we haven't broken the top of the triangle yet. Keep watching this post as I update it. If you are interested in this trade, set up an alert on TradingView and follow me for an update for my trade setup.
$BERY at AB=CD PCZ with Triple MACD Bearish DivergenceWe could see a major +60% Decline coming out of this one in the near future; It's been quite the run up but it's new target is now presumably back to the level of C which takes us back down to around $25
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall?
- The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates.
- The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice.
- Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there.
- This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.)
- Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now.
- Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Waltonchain WTCOne of the most interesting blockchain out there when it comes to supply chain transparency.
With new regulations about climate change and higher transparency on supply chain emissions, WTC can have a great opportunity to take lead in other areas where transparency from supply chain is needed.
Technical, it looks like an bomb to explode, and moneymakers has taken position, or are about to take.
Really interesting setup and fundamental ground to look closer into this one. #WaltonChain
XPO (Updated)I don't remember publishing this chart. However, it looks like price reached the 50% retracement of the previous high and even went on to test the 61% fib level. Although price could be setting a resistance here, I believe this is a solid company and am setting up a new buy target for a longer move towards the retracement of 88% down the road. Price does look as if it rejected the 200 ema at a point of control so we could be playing tug of war before a true run is made. Biden is working with these companies to improve supply chain issues so keep that in mind! Price reaching $76 would be a 38% retracement of the recent low and would be a good average down area in my eyes. Not advice.
Daseke going Higher?The top three commodities in trans-border truck shipping are computers and computer parts, electrical machinery and vehicles and motor parts. Other industries that rely on truck freight include grocery and retail, eCommerce, construction and agriculture.
All commodities listed have had increased demand especially during Q4 (Holiday season).
$OXY: Monthly signal in oil active...I scooped some long term OTM calls here, gives me 10.5% notional exposure to oil via $OXY, risking 1% of my portfolio if the trade fails.
Seems like a good way to be exposed to the big and steady trend in oil, I have already banked my other energy positions and oil futures options, this is a good way to stay exposed with minimal risk (since the weekly oil target was already reached, but monthly has a lot of room and time to go)
Cheers!
Best of luck,
Ivan.
Evergrande, Inflation, Supply Chains = Good For Crypto? I did a video version of the editor's pick idea (link below) with more details and a more holistic look at what's been going on in real-estate, politics, and crypto.
What happens next is anyone's guess but underlying trends tend to show that the crypto market itself will probably be OK, if not bullish. Some notes from the vid below:
- Inflation is here to stay in the US, China’s inflation is very low right now (below 1% with up and down trends, the US is 5.4% and steadily climbing) and is more likely to recover more smoothly in the long run if they allow Evergrande to default on their loans.
- The United States was caught off guard by inflation warnings because they have outsourced most of their manufacturing overseas over the last few decades -- out of sight, out of mind. (They refused to consider increasing interest rates or lower gov spending until very recently.)
- Crypto is an “inflation friendly” asset because its price is adjustable and is not beholden to supply chain issues.
- China’s ban on Bitcoin and other assets are pretty typical of the politics there, but savvy Chinese investors often invest in foreign assets as a way to dodge taxation and political entities taking control of their assets. This includes real-estate, but also things like cryptocurrencies.
- In September, the media latched onto the Evergrande controversy and dipping crypto prices by attempting to correlate the two. Data shows otherwise, however.
- It will probably take 6-12 months (1 or 2 business cycles) before the effects of Evergrande are seen in the US real-estate markets, but it will most likely be negative for traditional assets. The question is, will this be good or bad for crypto?
selling the news2 scenarios in this run up to earnings for TSLA.
1. TSLA beats analysts and does really well this past qtr but with the major disruptions in supply chains and China the past couple of weeks, people can begin to price in not so great numbers going into Q4 and take this opportunity to sell the news.
2. TSLA doesn't do as forecasted and undershoots analysts and performed not as expected, this will be followed by a little sell off once those are announced on WED, + supply chains will also be looked at and forecasted into future earnings going into Q4.
On the technicals we have 2 options as well thats being played out.
1. There was a little fake out in the wedge that has the solid base and upper trend and will resume to the downside effectively breaking down and out of that wedge.
2. TSLA is in a channel highlighted and at the very top looking at bouncing down towards the bottom of the channel line.
Bearish divergence on MFI and RSI and currently overbought on the RSI in all timeframes.
That's all folks
VeChain (VET) Is Priming to Break Resistance At $0.14 Cents VeChain is a pumper. It was one of the altcoins to experience a very heavy loss in May officially going from $0.28 cents to bottoming out at $0.05 cents in July. An eye watering 80% loss from its all time high. As of right now VeChain has been trading sideways from $0.11 cents to $0.14 for the past 3-4 weeks.
Currently we're oversold on the daily stochastic RSI and still have some run-up on the original RSI. I believe we can hit over $0.14 cents this month and flip this huge resistance in to support with all the positive momentum coming into the market. Once we break above the Fibonacci Level 0.382 there will be a great chance to run-up to the 0.5 level at $0.16 cents.
Also the Bitcoin dominance has been dropping which is good for some positive altcoin price action. VeChain is still fundamentally a very powerful cryptocurrency with virtually no competitors. The amount of partnerships VeChain has is vast and will continue to expand it's use case into many different industries. VeChain will do well in this upcoming phase in the bull market. If the chance presents itself again to get in at $0.10 cents or below it would be a nice level to add to the bags.
Support: $0.11 Cents
Resistance: $0.14 Cents
We're overbought on the 4 hour time frames to keep that in mind. Cheers! Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
Vechain (VET) Retesting 14 Cents!Big weekend ahead for Vechain and the of the cryptocurrency market. We have very important resistances to break the first being $0.14 cents for Vechain. As of right now we're at the doorsteps of retesting it.
If we fail to break this we may have choppy waters ahead potentially going back down to below $0.10 cents in a worse case scenario but good if you want to load up heavy on more Vechain. We've been making higher lows that's always a nice sign. I hope nobody is sleeping on Vechain as this project is primed to be a $100 Billion dollar market in the near future. There is simply no other cryptocurrency addressing supply chain, data, and logistical issues on a global enterprise level.
We have have Bitcoin 2021 in Miami June 4th - 5th so we'll see how this conference affects the overall tone and sentiment of Bitcoin going forward. It is estimated that more than 50,000 people will be attending which is a record so we'll see if this will have a positive effect on the markets. I'll be there!
Much peace, love, health, and wealth. Stack crypto safe and hodl with grace =]
Vechain (VET) Symmetrical Triangle Forming to $30 cents.Since my last call on April 4th VeChain (VET) has been up over 150% in the past two weeks. I knew VeChain (VET) wouldn't be trading at $0.10 cents for too long considering what VeChain is, the current market sentiment, and the global supply chain & logistics problems they're revolutionizing. If we breakout of our symmetrical triangle to the upside I believe we will retest $0.28 cents. If not I expect us to hold steady above trading at $0.20 cents. For the past 2 weeks we've also been producing higher lows.
To put things in a quick perspective according to research and consulting firm Armstrong & Associates Inc. The global logistics market was $9.6 trillion in 2018 and is expected to surpass $12 trillion by 2023. If VeChain we're to even capture 1% of a $12 trillion global logistics market that would put Vechain at a $120 billion from it's current $15 billion market cap. That's not even counting the monumental capital coming into the cryptocurrency markets. VeChain is the first mover in when it comes to supplychain blockchain technology. So when big corporations are looking to utilize cryptocurrency technology to replace antiquated logistics systems VeChain will most likely be at the discussion table. Bitcoin and Ethereum aren't specifically solving logistics and supply chain problems when it comes to enterprise.
It seems like VeChain is making strides to capturing a significant portion of the global supply chain & logistics industry everyday. The Internet of Things (IOT) is upon us. I've been saying that VeChain to a $1 is a very real possibility this cycle. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
VeChain (VET) Next Stop 10 Cents.VeChain has been itching to achieve an all time high of 10 cents. We've been trading between a low $0.08 cents - $0.095 cents since March 20th. It seems like the VeChain train is waiting a little longer for people to board before the next journey beyond $0.10 Cents. We have also been flirting with the 50 day moving average re-testing and bouncing off of it. It also seems like entries for positions at or below the 50 day moving average has yielded some positive gains.
As I've said before VeChain is the blockchain for enterprise, logistics, inventory management, and supply chain distribution for small and big business. VeChain virtually has no competitors, expansive partnerships from small businesses to governments, and is a first mover in blockchains when it comes to these industries of business.
Personally I believe VeChain will run way past 10 cents by to top of this bull cycle and has the potential to be a top 10 cryptocurrency. There is real world use case and applications being built on VeChain almost everyday. VeChain will continue to develop and revolutionize our antiquated logistics and supply chain systems we use today throughout the rest of 2021. Even at almost 10 cents VeChain has been undervalued in my opinion and still has room for a lot of upside. I still believe VeChain has a $1 potential this bull cycle in cryptocurrency.
Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
Vechain (VET) Most Undervalued Cryptocurrency $1 Potential.Everything from luxury goods, counterfeit prevention, wine, vehicles, NFTs, Covid19, healthcare, distribution, art, food, ect... The first 5-star-rated blockchain service provider in the world Vechain is the swiss army knife of blockchains. Vechain (VET) I believe is perhaps one of the most undervalued cryptocurrency in the space this year. Having a vast network of partnerships it is the most publicly and widely used blockchain network used by governments, small businesses, and enterprises worldwide solving a real global problems and more. In a nutshell Vechain is the blockchain for the supply chain and logistics industry.
As of right now Vechain has a long way to go before it even hits a new Bitcoin price discovery phase. We've been trading below the .236 Fibocannci level since September 2020 for less than 100 satoshis!!!! In a sense this can indicate that Vechain still has a massive amount of growth especially if Bitcoin drops in dominance. In the short term our price target is 105 Satoshi.
I'm not normally one to give big price predictions but based on fundamentals and tokenomics I believe Vechain has $1 potential this bull cycle. Especially if we consider that this may be a Bitcoin " Super Cycle" due to our current political and economic environment from the effects of COVID-19 on our global monetary system. There's a current circulation supply of 64,315,576,989 VET and Max Supply 86,712,634,466 so we're getting closer to no more Vechain coming into circulation.
As of right now dollar value of Vechain rounded out is roughly $0.05 cents with a current market cap of $3,000,000,000. Multiplied by a 20x and this gives us a $1.00 Vechain with a 60 Billion dollar market cap which in my opinion is not too far fetched considering a mutli-trillion dollar cryptocurrency market cap, what Vechain is, and the industry they're revolutionizing.
Remember Vechain is a first mover and has first mover advantage in its space. You know me I always keep a fat bag for the long term been accumulating since it was less than a penny. Keep Vechain on you radar this project has extremely strong fundamentals. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
AMB/BTC just for fun "Moon Analysis"AMB/BTC has been in a bear trend for years now
and flipping the top black diagonal whilst creating another
higher low would be bullish.
With the rumors of this supply chain meets blockchain
tech company working alongside IBM, Maersk
and others potentially coming to fruition, it could
see exponential growth...moon targets all the way to nearly
10,000 sats.
The monthly volume of July and August was remarkable,
each being much greater than any month prior. Could this
be wash trading? Maybe, maybe not. But it's fun to look at
moon targets regardless, and if the volume profile is
legitimate as well as the partnerships being true, with
more bullish information released about $AMB we may be
in for an exciting show.
These targets are solely based on previous S/R and
volume, they could very well never come close to
being reached, but with the uncertainty about this
Bitmex situation it's nice to keep things a little
lighthearted.
(S/R horizontal lines drawn on 1W chart,
using monthly candles here to emphasize volume)
Supply chain resiliency through VeChain, SimplifiedFA,
- BaaS that has supply chain management solutions. Brings IoT and blockchain together to understand supply chain better.
- E-tags on goods to be tracked. Transparent and immutable.
- POA : proof of authority.Not fully decentralized but scalable.
- VTHO earned through staking VET. VTHO are lower level tokens used to pay for transactions
- 70% of VTHO paid in each transaction is destroyed and the 30% is awarded to authority masternode operator(AMO). This results in a natural supply constraint. With added usage, more VTHO is required with a suppressed supply. Bear in mind that the only way that VTHO is generated is through staking VET. This pushes up demand for VET. Hence, the value of VET is directly related to the amount of activity taken place in the blockchain.
- Battle against counterfeit through e-tags/ Build more trust with end consumer / Ensure product quality through the value chain.
- Capped supply of $87Bn. Scarcity = Value? Econ 101.
- Authority nodes need 25Mn minimum VET. Currently there's 101 masternodes. Total of 2.5Bn locked up that are off the float. Economic(4.5bn) and Economic X nodes(11.2bn) with other minimum holdings and lower voting power than authority nodes need to have VET locked up to maintain their voting power. 25% of VET locked up. Those who hold VET also have a direct incentive to accelerate adoption.
- Great partnerships : PwC, LVMH, H&M, Most of the insiders have previously worked in PwC and LVMH
My take,
As a quality engineer, I have seen how frustrating it is to track part details including quality reports, previous inspection records, reported issues, revisions, rework, etc. Most times, way too much time is wasted on tracking back to the root cause than actually solving the problem and mitigating it in the future.
Writing down serial codes manually and storing them is highly inefficient. Instead, scanning them in each station to update with latest information will enhance productivity.
Not only will this make manufacturing easier, it will also be more credible when the final product is presented to potential customers. There's no second guessing or any room for doubt when all the details of individual components are recorded with 100% accuracy. Quality wins.
Recently, I have focused on spending more time on research on companies that solve a real problem and save enormous amounts of times for its users. Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple have aced this concept which is justified by their trillion dollar market capitalizations.
VET is more of a pick and shovel play that supports big organizations to improve both their supply chain efficiency and resiliency.
TA,
- MACD golden cross
-200ema Bounce
- Lower bollinger band
- Holding long term weekly support
- Could be a shakeout and forming a base. Better to wait for confirmation but we all know that when crypto confirms, it's already run up 100%.
Concerns,
- High volume on red days. 3rd september, 5th september
- Great concept but everything depends on adoption and execution.
Entry : Market 0.0132
Short term TP1 : 0.0148 (+12%)
TP2: 0.017 (+31%)
SL:0.0106
Credit where its due,
Follow Coin Bureau on Youtube to keep up with crypto.
CADJPY Possible Rebound Upward!Lately, some news about China to start buying oil for state reserves sparked some volatility in loonie too. I guess the oil future will be going fine in coming further weeks so that might help this pair to rebound at some level. Stochastic pointing out the momentum in favour of bullish so far.
BrentCrudeOil Probabilities Of Retrenchment UpwardChina is to start buying oil for state reserves after a sharp drop in prices. Same cases as I mentioned earlier in WTI OIL.
