BOH Bank of Hawaii Is this a safe short?BOH has been in a downtrend for 2 months since the very beginning of the small bank crisis all
precipitated by the fed and its rate hikes confounding the value of bonds with fixed yields.
As can be seen on the 4H chart, price was in consolidation in January and February but the
dropped out of the supply / resistance zone which is quite thick by the Luxalgo indicator.
Price hit another consolidation range at about $ 50 and then moved lower as the banking crisis
was temporarily stabilized but then took another downside leg. the moving averages show
price underneath both the EMA 100 and EMA 20 while also in the range of three standard
deviations below the mean anchored VWAP. the EMA100 and the mean anchored VWAP
provide confluent super-trend direction. Support is breaking down; Price is in the deep
undervalued area and has not stabilized where it is. As such it bargain hunter's dream but
more likely a solid and sate shorting candidate. I always keep in mind if a catalyst such as
federal rescue measures comes into play, and price reverses above say $36.00 some buying
momentum could come into effect especially if short sellers need to cover their positions to
out with a small profit or loss. This play would have far less liquidity than PACW but perhaps
more room to the downside from which to realize profit.
Supplydemandanalytics
AUDUSD Potential SellWeekly:
-remains bearish in my opinion
-closed very bullish
-high probability of opening bearish on the short term
Midrange:
-tapped into a zone of orders/supply level on H4:
-Friday low at 0.66890 the most preferred level to grab liquidity and rally thereafter
-50-60 pip potential
Trade plan: await a close of the spread window (usually 1hr into the market open), and take a sell of the pair if and when the market indicates a clear rejection on M15 in favor of the bears.
Target: 0.66850
NOTE: this is not to be construed as financial advice. It is simply my opinion based on my analytical tool.
BTCUSDT 4hHi Guys,
btc and crypto markets jumped after SP500 poor day -negative correlation days equities strengthen probability of independent crypto breakouts,
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰26/April/23
⛔️(DYOR)
always do your research.
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
JICPT| Gold range move, hesitate to test previous ceilingHello everyone, it's been a while since I published the last trade idea. Gold has been in a strong upward trend since last November against the backdrop of weakening US dollar index. I've add two lines in the chart for reference.
Yellow line : the US dollar index. As we know, gold is priced in USD. Hence, gold and the USD normally has a negative correlation. You can seen that the gold price moved perfectly in the opposition direction of the index since Oct.
purple line : China gold reserve. We can see China started to increase holding of gold from November. Due to the geopolitical tensions, China dumped over 400 billion US treasuries to diversify its foreign reserve.
From my point of view, the two ceiling around $2073 marked in the chart is created by two different reasons. I don't think price will easily pass through it. The bottom is $1616.
What I described above is the normal case. What if gold surpasses the ceiling of $2073? Though, the probability is low, it means investors loss the confident of fiat currency and turn to the gold just like those before World War 1.
Give me a like if you're with me.
SOL, at major levelhey guys today i'm here with a sol analysis that just came to my eyes, the schiff fork could not hold the trend very well and that's fine since it will now indicate a broken hagopian line that can lead price to marked levels, this is still not confirmed since we are at pullback level of a broken support zone which is now resistance and it's just the first touch, BUT if it breaks the targets are not out of range and can be easily reached, keep an eye on solona :)
have great time trading!
Bank Nifty @ Supply ZoneSupply Zone @ 42000-42200....
Demand Zone @ 41500-41800...
Demand Zone @ 41275-40730...
Bank Nifty closed @ the Supply Zone but it is having multiple demand zones on the down side.
I am not interested to take positional short trade from supply zone but I will take intraday short position once i will get the bearish conformation.
Sustain above 42200 I will avoid short position and may take a positional long position.
Let market decide first from 42000-42200 zone...
Potential short-term short on BTCThis is not a "place a limit order" type of idea for me, rather an area to anticipate potential reversals due to the liquidity left behind on both sides.
We are currently aiming to take the buyside liquidity so therefore, once this happens I will be looking for reversal signs and targeting the sellside in the form of a weekly FVG.
Nifty @ Supply ZoneIt's better to follow the price instead of to predict the price as an option seller.
Currently Nifty @ Reaction Zone. There is a high probability to see strong price action on the any side within a day or two.
Bullish price action will take nifty to the next supply zone @ 17800-17900
and
Bearish price action will take nifty to the next support @ 17000 and 16850-16900.
Let's See....
GBP / USD - DOES IT NEED A CORRECTION?GBP / USD - DOES IT NEED A HEALTHY CORRECTION?
My analysis today deals with how the further course of our popular Forex pair "GBP / USD" could look.
> The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent sell-off.
= Why, that I explain after the introduction.
The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on GBP / USD, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition.
> Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure.
> Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, GBP / USD has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price.
In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you.
For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages.
Table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "GBP/USD" tried to break out of its previously existing downtrend in May|2021, a strong sell-off was subsequently unleashed.
> This sell-off extended to September|2022, where we formed our currently existing low.
> After this significant low of 1.03565 USD (lowest exchange rate since the existence of the GBP), investors' fears subsided a bit and a massive buying of 20.19%, to 1.21534 USD occurred (in less than 2 months).
> Due to this extreme upward movement, we can assume that a correction is overdue. This is needed so that a healthy recapture, an acceptable exchange rate can arise.
> In recent weeks, the strong upward movement has stalled a bit, making the correction I expect more and more likely.
CONTRA | SELL-OFF
= Despite the strong reasons for a sell-off, the price can approach the not yet tested downtrend line, which would be at approx. 1.28 USD.
= In addition, the price has regained a sideways trend channel and has respected it so far.
PRO | SELL-OFF
= The significant Fibonacci level of 0.65 (of the previous upward movement) was reached and tried to be broken twice without success.
= The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the correction thesis.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes).
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
(This also refers to Fibonacci levels.)
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, finds its root in 1972 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> The price is in the area below the mean line and had unsuccessfully challenged it in 2021.
The trend channel shown in the chart, in purple, formed since 1976 and represented a hidden sideways channel.
> The price is far from the channel and will not provoke a confrontation in the coming months.
The trend line drawn in the chart, golden, has its origin in 2007 and proved to be a very strong resistance.
> The price challenged this between "early 2021 - to early 2022" unsuccessfully and subsequently experienced its strong sell-off.
As we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can take a closer look at the following "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = Played a role in the last bottom formation.
> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = Played a role in the last bottoming out.
> The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong move + it goes along with the mid-trend line of the largest trend channel (origin | 1972)
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades).
> FIB 1 | will serve as resistance should the price attempt another run-up.
> FIB 2 | represents all relevant levels, for a possible sell-off.
Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance/support, one of which we have.
> OLD LOW | 03/2020
> OLDEST LOW | 1985
Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market.
> The most relevant at the moment - POIs are (1.20 + 1.185 USD) - and have been an important mark since the year 1984. In addition, they currently take a very strong support role.
> The other POIs are by no means negligible and will play a role in the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart).
OVERVIEW
CURRENT RELEVANT
CHARTS
Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI
Overall picture without POIs
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY ANNOUNCED TREND CHANNEL + TREND LINES, FURTHER VISIBLE.
The trend channel shown in the chart, purple, finds its root in 2016 and since then has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> The price is in the lowest area of the channel and had regained it. Despite the successful recapture, the price does not seem to be able to hold this position for much longer.
The trend lines, drawn in the chart, have the following characteristics.
> The - golden - older line served as an excellent support line in the past and was only temporarily broken in 2022 by a "fake-out".
> The - golden - line with the shorter history is our current down-sale trendline and would come into play in case of a further rise.
> The - turquoise - line will serve us as a "POI support line" during the following correction, as it represented a strongly contested area in the past.
The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements.
> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong move + was not tested by the price so far + is covered by a monthly demand zone
> The "SUPPLY" zones 1+2+3, are WEAK = each followed a Weak move and do not receive additional overlap from a Monthly Supply Zone
> The "SUPPLY" zones 4, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + is covered by a monthly supply zone
As further Fibonacci additions, we have four more elements:
> FIB 1 | will serve as support, but should not be of great relevance.
> FIB 2 | represents a possible target level, for a possible sell-off.
> FIB 3 | represents all possible correction levels, for a possible sell-off.
> FIB 4 | represents all possible levels for a further price increase.
CHARTS
Overall picture
Overall picture without FIBONACCI
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"Is the pound losing its global position as one of the strongest currencies?"
If you answered YES to this question, let's look into the reason.
> Do you think this is only due to BREXIT, or is the reason a bit more complex?
> Let me know in the comments what you think could be another reason and will be in the future.
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a correction.
> Since the second attempt to break the 0.65 FIB, less and less strength is showing in the GBP.
> A possible break of the resistance elements is not impossible, but highly unlikely.
> The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bearish sell-off.
For this reason, I assume a weak GBP exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying sell-off in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
EUR/USDWhat I see in the US is that the price broke down and reached an area of higher demand. It took liquidity from the low and began an accumulation as I indicated in another projection. It continued to accumulate while slowly rising. It didn't give me any longs with good clear price action so I didn't do anything here. I take it as liquidity what it is doing, gaining strength and then going up. The price can continue to rise in this way. Or go down to take liquidity, perhaps to test the base a little more and then go up. If the price goes down and confirms a valid long, the longs are taken. We must see what the price does.
I invite you to leave a comment and to check my social networks that are in my profile. There I post more ideas and trading stuff.
GBP/USDWhat I see in GU is that the price took the liquidity from the demand zone, from the low. It began to accumulate and headed bullish as I indicated could happen in another forecast.
The price is reaching the supply area that eliminated the demand area for me. The price can give a valid sale in the area or above after taking liquidity from the already tested areas.
Where the price confirms, a sale is taken if it is valid. In the zone or above.
I invite you to leave a comment and to check my social networks that are in my profile. There I post more ideas and trading stuff.
Nifty: High probability to move above 18000 in coming week.Levels and other details are mentioned in the chart.
There is a high probability to get trending market on upper side.
I will change my view and position in case of price sustain below 17600.
Levels and analysis is for a position view (Option selling).
What i see on EURUSDThe price is in an area of higher demand. He did a CHoCH but the price action is not good and the basis is not valid due to the time and volume. Since it happened in Asia. What I would be waiting for is for the price to clean that area and then look for longs because it is not a good area. For now the price is accumulating.
Bank NF:High Possibility for new all time high in coming weeksThis is my positional view...it's not for a trading but buy Bank Nifty in cash...
There was a selling pressure from 44000 and from 27th January there was a buying pressure from 37000. In short there is a wide range from 44000 to 37000.
There is no strong bearish candle in monthly chart and price action pattern is very strong with higher high - lower low.
In daily chart there is a strong bullish candle on 27th Jan from supply zone and bullish candle on 3rd march from 41000-41250 supply zone.
Multiple time frame suggesting that in coming weeks it may make a new all time high.
AXSUSDT is testing the key level!AXSUSDT is testing the weekly support at the $9.9 area, which is a crucial level for traders and investors.
The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is also in close proximity, which is a key level for traders who use Fibonacci retracements to identify potential areas of support. It is expected that the price will bounce off this level, as it has done in the past, as traders look to enter long positions.
However, in order for this bounce to occur, the price needs to break out from the descending channel and static resistance, which has been acting as a significant barrier to upside movement. Once this breakout occurs, it is likely that we will see a strong move to the upside, potentially towards the $12.5 area.
According to Plancton's rules, a new long position should be opened once the breakout occurs and the price closes above the resistance level. This is because the breakout is a strong indication that the trend has shifted in favor of the bulls, and that further upside movement is likely. As such, traders who follow Plancton's rules may look to enter long positions in anticipation of a strong move higher.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <= 1h structure.
Follow the Shrimp 🦐