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Supplyshortage

Bitcoin Bulls Are Not Quitting HereTraders, As you might know, I went short on BTC at 60,500. That was when price lived just under our Multi-Year Support/Resistance TL from 2019. Obviously, I was betting that we would NOT break straight through. I was wrong and as I told my followers in our private chat, I never mind trading a bit of humility for some profit. Bulls have clearly demonstrated that they are in complete and total control. When the charts show me proof that I was wrong and new developments are in the making, I will quickly bow to the data. I know from experience that if I don't, I may lose valuable lost opportunities to profit more in the future if I don't. More evidence of bull control comes in the way of the following technical developments: Confirmation of a break above our TL Bull Flag formed above our TL New BLUE ascending TL spotted from 2022 Target of my Inverse H&S meets BLUE TL Exactly! As you may be aware, I have now exited my BTC short and pending further price action on Monday I may begin to re-enter BTC LONG. Until that time, I will be scouting for laggard altcoins that may still have time to pop further in attempts to play catch up. Apologies to TradingView people but I don't always have time to post all of my trades here. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Is a supply shock coming for Bitcoin?Traders, I will probably not be posting as frequently this next week due to some personal matters that require more attention. Thus, I thought pushing out another general update on where we are currently sitting in the crypto space would be appropriate. As you have seen, I have still been busy entering trades in alts. The main reason for this is Bitcoin’s continued sideways price action. Because the bears have not had the power to push it down to the 48k support area, various altcoins have been given a chance to continue their rise. I have been attempting to spot those coins with the greatest potential of popping and entering as I see the time is right. So far, we are doing great in this regard. And unless/until the bears are able to push Bitcoin down below that bottom ascending purple support, I will continue to look for good setups in the alts. Though, I may not have the opportunity to alert you all on every exit or take-profit point this week, I will still attempt to post any new entries. Perhaps, that is what you all would prefer anyway as it will mean less in the way of noisy substack notifications from me? Let me know in the comments any further thoughts on this. Back to Bitcoin. Honestly, Bitcoin bulls have amazed me. Even with the pullback that I expected after the ETF approval news, we did not touch the supports that I expected we might. This indicated the bulls would maintain control. And they certainly have.If done right, the technicals will often show us the future of price action. But sometimes, it will not show us the complete picture without at least a surface understanding of the fundamentals. For this reason, I have alluded to fundamentals several times in my previous weekly updates and Bitcoin posts. Mainly this: Bitcoin ETFs were at one point demanding an average of 12x+ that which Bitcoin miners could supply. Only 24% of Bitcoin remains liquid and available for trading Bitcoin halving is only months away making it that much less available Demand from various nation-states for Bitcoin continues to rise Simple math here dictates that the multiplier effect is going to cause Bitcoin (and much of crypto) price to go parabolic. We could soon see a supply shock occur that has never been witnessed previously. And, my followers know, I am no moon-boy who incessantly pumps crypto. My conclusion simply is predicated upon cold, hard logic, math, and reason. Side note: I have never been a huge Bitcoin fan as you may have been able to tell from my underhanded jabs or derogative nicknames I have given to BTC like “Boomer Trading Coin” and more recently, “Blackrock Trading Currency”. I believe that of all cryptos that exist Bitcoin is probably one of the least private, most expensive transactionally, and most centralized in terms of ownership. Certainly, the latter is much more true recently. There are far better alternatives that exist that fulfill the goal and function set forth by Mr. Nakamoto. Anyways, this is a whole other topic and Bitcoin remains the lead dawg on which all eyes are focused. Therefore we must give it the attention and respect it deserves as the price leader of the crypto space. To conclude, if we don’t see a pullback in Bitcoin soon, this sideways action, much to the shock of many analysts, may be all that we see. At most, at this point, I would be happy with a retreat and touch of the 48k support area before we hit new all-time highs this year. Altcoins will certainly come along for the ride here and the best blockchain technologies will exaggerate this move up. I still believe many alts can see 10x plus gains from here. In any case, we have to be prepared either way. So, continue to practice those safe trading habits: be disciplined and consistent with your strategy, set your targets, set your stop-outs, don’t put all your eggs into one basket, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
NVDA, CRUCIAL Pullback Triggers, Major BEARISH Indications!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about NVDA on several timeframe perspectives. Within the recent times the market of NVDA has shifted into a potentially crucially developing bearish pullback scenario consideration. Especially, as there are underlying bearish factors that could trigger such a bearish signal that NVDA does not have the ability to emerge with new highs in the near future. Within the recent times "official" sources have reported about the new Covid-19 variant "Iris" which is already causing the rise of the hospital activity to over 40%. Within the Covid-19 pandemic global financial market disruptions such stocks showed a major downside. Only a half of this dynamic seen in 2020 this time could trigger such a bearish rection in NVDA that is causing further net-long-position liquidation-squeezes towards the downside to emerge with a minimum -30% dump. A major shortage within the semiconductor manufacturing could accelerate a bearish dynamic here as NVDA could emerge with a massive bearish indication especially once supply chain disruptions emerge similar as it has been alreay seen within the actual declines in May 2020 because of this dynamic. Depending on the severeness and intensity of the supply shortages this could trigger such a bearish momentum that even once the final ascending-wedge targets are reached NVDA moves further after this. Once a continuation of bearish pullbacks emerges here and NVDA formed the breakout below the lower boundary of the gigantic ascending triangle this is going to activate the target-zones marked in my chart at 280-300. Once the targets are reached it has to be elevated how the bearishness continued till there on and if a reversal will even be possible. When NVDA continues with the major bearish inclinations this does not mean NVDA is going to be bearish forever and that it is not going to mark a new all-time-high ever again. Because, especially when the bearish momentum could reach such a level from where a reversal is possible in combination with a confirmation in the market there is still the possibility for stabilization and a retest of previous areas. This is why I am keeping the symbol on the watchlist and re-evaluate the situation once important changes setup. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
LSIN:0R1I
by VincePrince
13
Commodity OutlookRecession may be a red herring for a market fuelled by a supercycle While broad commodities have outperformed most major asset classes year-to-date1, the pressure of rising interest rates, a strong US dollar and fears of several large economies tipping into recession has led to a pull-back since the summer of 2022. In our Market Outlook, we argued that the current negative business cycle pressures on commodities are likely to be temporary and give way to the larger forces pushing the demand for commodities higher and constraining supply of those commodities. Historically, commodities have been a cyclical asset class, generally declining when the business cycle turns negative. But even history illustrates that commodity prices can continue to rise long after a business cycle has turned if fundamentals are supportive. Oil price shocks in the 1970s and 80s are a case in point. Admittedly they are unusual cycles but, today, we are likely to be living in another energy price shock. Energy price shocks continue Since we published our Market Outlook, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+) has announced a large cut to oil production from November 2022, amounting to 2 million barrels per day. As we expected in our Outlook, OPEC+ reacted to the price weakness in oil after the summer and sought to raise prices of Brent oil to over US$90/barrel (prices had fallen to US$84/barrel on 26 September 2022, just over a week before the OPEC decision). They have been successful in keeping prices above US$90/barrel since that decision but have laid the groundwork for further cuts by painting a pessimistic picture on demand forecasts (giving the group an excuse to intervene in the market again). Meanwhile, the Ukraine war shows no sign of improving and natural gas supplies into Europe from Russia have fallen to a trickle. The European Union has taken various measures to try to soften the shock. However, we view several of the proposals with scepticism. For example, introducing price caps on natural gas imports could simply divert natural gas to other countries and worsen the energy shortage for the EU. Interfering with price benchmarks, such as the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), could send incorrect pricing signals and lead to overconsumption of energy resulting in additional shortages2. Supply shortages of commodities extend beyond energy A combination of rising energy prices and interest rates have driven many metal smelters to shutter production. High fertiliser prices (petrochemical product) are also constraining crop yields. Looking across the commodity spectrum, all commodities have lower-than-normal levels of inventory. Base metal supply is especially low The inventory of base metals is considerably lower than their respective 5-year averages, yet base metals have seen the largest price declines of all the commodity sub-sectors. The markets are pricing in demand weakness from an economic deceleration. However, demand has not weakened yet. On the other hand, supply is declining fast. Let’s take the example of copper. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG)’s first forecast for 2022 copper balances (demand less supply), cast on October 2021, was for a sizeable surplus of 328 thousand tonnes. Its latest forecast (cast on 19 October 2022) is for a deficit of 328 thousand tonnes in 2022. Judging by historical revisions, their 2023 forecast of a surplus is likely to be revised down. Their initial forecasts tended to assume no production disruptions. Yet, as we have observed this year, production disruptions can be very large. China’s economic deceleration is countered by policy support China’s zero-COVID polices have slowed economic growth and, thus, its demand for commodities. That matters because China is the largest commodity consumer in the world. However, its central bank has been loosening policy and President Xi has called for an ‘all-out effort’ to increase infrastructure spending (and given local governments free rein to raise debt financing to fund these projects). However, the future course of China’s policy will become clearer after we write this blog. At the time of writing (21 October 2022), China's 20th Communist Party Congress is still in process and will wrap up in the coming days. Xi Jinping is poised to clinch his third five-year term in charge of the nation. We expect national security to take a greater role in policy priority than the economy. Commodity supercycle An energy transition and a revitalised global infrastructure spend are likely to drive the demand for commodities significantly higher over the coming years. However, today, we are living in the down-phase of a business cycle. Even though many commodity markets are visibly tight, commodities are not sufficiently pricing the tightness. The Inflation Reduction Act in the US and the Infrastructure Bill are both strong tailwinds for commodity demand. In Europe, the sharp focus on weaning off Russian energy dependency is adding a new urgency to the energy transition, and we expect to see accelerated energy infrastructure plans take place. Conclusion As a headline, economies going into recession doesn’t inspire huge confidence in a commodity rebound. However, history does suggest that an economic slowdown combined with high inflation has been associated with positive commodity and gold performance. The energy price shock has set off a vicious circle of supply contraction from metals, fertilisers, and other energy intensive commodities. The energy transition and infrastructure led supercycle remains in play even if short-term business cycle phenomena dictate headlines today. As we emerge from this phase of the business cycle, we may find commodity markets extraordinarily tight.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Overproduction, greed and a lack of shippingThis is a production chart and the last of my economic charts. I want to take a second to think back to 2020 here. The world shut down, when it reopened the Suez Canal got blocked, shipping is still no where near recovered. The rich are pulling PMs off the Comex as a silver squeeze happened, and a lack of shipping on top of this and scalpers lead to SO MUCH tech not being available. Is till can't get a new GPU or PS5 AT ALL. then you had massive food issues, droughts, oil pipeline attacks in America and the middle east, incompetent world leaders and fighting between nations and soooooo much more. It's of no surprise to me that bond investors my be getting spooked, on the other hand, with great risk comes the potential for great reward. Just something to think about the next time you order fast food and find only one person working 60+ orders or order something from amazon and find it got lost in that black hole never to be seen until you get on their case. My next charts will be a few TA on some of my favorite crypto, MEME coins and stocks and what I have been looking at for trades afterwards
FRED:BUSINV
by Joshuakm