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Supply Zone

EUR/USD Shorts from 1.09200 back down This week’s analysis for EUR/USD is somewhat different from GBP/USD. I expect price to continue dropping from one of the two supply zones I’ve identified. I’ll be watching for a potential Wyckoff distribution pattern to form at these zones. Once I see signs of distribution, I’ll look to enter short positions, targeting the liquidity pool below. If, during the week’s election events, price drops to fill the gap left at Sunday’s open, I see potential for buys from the 1-hour demand zone. I’ll wait for signs of price slowing down and accumulating to identify good entry points for long trades. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: - Price is approaching a premium supply area. - Significant liquidity lies below, including untouched Asian session lows. - The higher timeframe trend remains bearish. - The DXY still shows strong bullish pressure. P.S. Although there’s been a recent shift in character to the upside, I still view EUR/USD as bearish on the higher timeframe, especially with the dollar’s ongoing bullish momentum. I’ll observe price behavior within my points of interest to determine the best entries.
Short
by Hassan_fx
XAU/USD shorts from 2,760 or Longs from 2,720This week, my analysis suggests that gold may continue to drop, targeting the trendline liquidity formed below. Once that liquidity is taken out, I anticipate a bullish reaction, potentially around the demand zone I have identified. If the price retraces up to the supply zone, I’ll look for potential sell opportunities to follow this short-term bearish trend. Since my overall bias is bullish, I am more inclined towards long positions due to the higher time frame outlook. However, if the price surpasses any of my nearby Points of Interest (POIs), I’ll watch for a deeper retracement around the demand at 2,680 or the supply at 2,780. Confluences for Gold Sells: - Price has shown a bearish shift on the higher time frame. - Supply zones remain on both the 1-hour and daily charts. - There is significant trendline liquidity below, providing a target for further downside movement. - The dollar has been moving bullishly, which aligns with a potential drop in gold. - Gold has been in a strong bullish trend and may be showing signs of exhaustion, hence the recent heavy decline. P.S. I’ll stay vigilant and assess where the price moves first. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll have a stronger inclination to sell. Have a great trading week!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Hassan_fx
FET Solid Long Entry & TargetA few untested KEY levels below would be a nice place to enter a long trade if we get the reaction we are looking for. The target would be the Value Area High & other untested KEY levels above. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
by Navitility
2
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout. From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk. 2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside. Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup. 3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs. The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms. 4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025) To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics: o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures): Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick) Point value of 1 future unit: $50 Point value of 1 option unit: $50 Expiration: December 27, 2024 Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760). o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024. The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760 This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures. o Risk Management: While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread. 5. Options Risk Profile Analysis The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration: Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration. Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move. For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets. 6. Trade Execution Plan Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout. Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point. 7. Risk Management Considerations Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages: Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread. No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market. Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups. This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
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CBOT:ZWH2025Education
by traddictiv
2
GOLD FORECASTIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for XAUUSD. Today I'm looking potential drop in gold price, So wait for price when it comes into our zone. After taking some additional confirmation like volume increase or decrease and RSI divergence. Then we will execute our trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my prediction and analysis. #GOLD M30 Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
EUR/USD Sells to continue from 1.08300 or 1.08500EU Analysis Breakdown: My bias for EU aligns closely with GU, anticipating a continued bearish trend as long as the DXY remains bullish. I’ve marked out two supply zones and will wait for either to be mitigated, followed by my lower time frame execution model involving Wyckoff principles. Once I spot a Wyckoff distribution pattern, liquidity sweep, and CHOCH, I’ll initiate a sell position to keep with the downward trend. If price reaches the 9-hour demand zone at 1.07500, I’ll assess potential buy opportunities there. Confluences for EU Sells: - Strong bullish momentum in the DXY supports a downward bias for EU. - EU’s consistent bearish structure aligns with this trend-following approach. - An untouched supply zone provides a key area for potential sell entries. - Significant downside liquidity offers additional targets. P.S. Price could alternatively rise due to the liquidity above the supply zone, particularly around Asia session highs. Trade safely and stay smart out there!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBPU/USD Shorts from 1.30200 continue trend!GU Analysis Breakdown: This week, my GU analysis centres on the idea that price will continue to follow its bearish trend. With a recent structure break to the downside, price has left behind a clean, unmitigated supply zone. I’ll be watching for a retest in this area as an opportunity to catch potential sell positions. If price revisits the 10-hour demand zone I’ve marked, I’ll also be open to a potential bullish reaction there. Should this demand fail, I’ll look for a deeper mitigation at the next demand level below. Confluences for GU Sells: - The DXY has been very bullish, signalling a continued downward bias for GU. - GU has maintained a bearish structure, aligning with this pro-trend idea. - An untouched supply zone offers a key area for potential sell entries. - Significant liquidity below, providing additional targets. - The 1-hour supply is positioned at the psychological level of 1.30000. P.S. There’s a strong pool of liquidity above my supply, so if price briefly moves higher to take the trendline liquidity, it wouldn’t be surprising. Stay diligent, and have a great trading week, everyone!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GOLD ready to sell possibly? shorts from 2,750This Week's Analysis for Gold: This week, I'm expecting gold to weaken and potentially consolidate. The slight bearish reaction we've observed may indicate that bullish momentum is losing strength. Additionally, with the recent Change of Character (CHOCH) to the downside, an unmitigated 7-hour supply zone has been created, which could prompt a revisit from price. From that level, I anticipate a potential selling opportunity. Once price taps into this zone, I'll be looking for distribution on the lower timeframe to refine my entry. Confluences for Gold Sells: DXY has shown strong bullish movement, and I expect the dollar to keep strengthening. Gold has shifted to a bearish character, signalling weakness. A clean, unmitigated supply zone is in place, where price may retrace. Significant liquidity to the downside and an imbalance that needs filling. Gold has been heavily bullish and may require a corrective move. P.S. If this turns out to be a retracement and price continues upward, I’ll look for potential buys at the 2,680 level. Have a great trading week!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Hassan_fx
BankNifty is in Bullish ZoneBank Nifty was recover itself into its channel and still trading in bullish channel near bottom of the channel. Resistance Level is also nearby so wait for the price come to near support level for good risk to reward. Learning : If any instrument is in bullish trend then all support act as strong support and resistance levels breaks. Note : Its just an analysis, wait for the price to confirm. Disclaimer : Always follow risk to reward, this is the only key to success in market, no matter how much good a trade is looking we never know the future.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by smrgrover2
Buy GBP/NZD BreakoutThe GBP/NZD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2.1480 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 2.1600 2nd Resistance – 2.1675 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2.1385. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
6
#USDJPY #Elliot #Sell#USDJPY sell-4h-elliot-clasicpattern-supplyzone_RD- #In the 4-hour time frame, Elliott price has completed and is now falling. Our fifth wave consists of 5 micro-waves, the fifth wave of our micro-wave is formed in a short form. #Also, in this time frame, the price has formed a classic reversal pattern and at the same time, the price has also reacted to our supply zone. #Divergence of the indicator with the price is also a confirmation of our entry. #SL:149.782 #TP1:146.252 #TP2:143.630 #R/R:1/7
Short
by mohamadaminsajjadi
GBPJPY Sell Trade Activated Oct 10 2024Supply Zone introduced since October 4 2024: this is just a continuation of analysis in gbpjpy using daily supply, 4h supply and 1H supply. Sell limit was activated during Asian session. Aiming for 4:1RR. This was a product of multi-timeframe analysis including lower timeframes. Always looking for validity and not market execution trading. Intraday may look liked difficult but getting used to charts within 600hrs of discipline will give you an EDGE. #supplyanddemand #proprietarytrader.
Short
by glyrad
LIQUIDITY CONCEPT MODULEToday, I’m focusing on identifying potential buying opportunities in this trade. I'm analyzing market trends, recent price movements, and key support levels to determine the best entry point. I'm particularly interested in signs of bullish momentum, such as increased volume or positive news catalysts that could drive the price higher. By keeping a close eye on technical indicators and market sentiment, I'm aiming to position myself strategically for a favorable trade outcome. So wait and watch when price enter into our zone and which trade market will give to us. Always use proper money management and R:R ratio. Always use stoploss for your trade. # USDJPY 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal
2
EURUSD 6/10/24Starting off the week with euro to the US dollar. I bearish bias came into play as we thought it might. we now have a longer term bearish outlook for this pair. We swept all of the liquidity that was based on the lower end of price action except for the low that we have marked which is relatively close to current price We have an area of supply to watch if we pull back to go lower. We also have a liquid high that's seated above that point. So take into consideration that we may break through the short term trajectory that we have made. this can give us a higher pullback to the upper higher time frame water block if this happens we are still expecting a short main bias here is for the area of supply to be tapped into in price action to sell to the low that we have marked. Trade safe, stick to your plan and your risk.
by rosshayes