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Supply Zone

DXY$ Shorts from 105.800 down towards 105.200As expected our last week scenario (A) played out perfectly like we anticipated which was seeing a bullish reaction from the 4hr demand. For this week's bias we are still temporarily bearish with the dollar as it's approaching a clean 14hr supply zone. As soon as it gets tapped in I will be waiting for my lower time frame confirmation i.e. a Wyckoff distribution schematic and a clean CHOCH to the downside. I would preferably wait for the asian high to get swept inside the zone before looking for a drop in the dollar index. I am bullish long term but, as price has broken structure a few times to the downside I would like to catch sells down towards the next demand at least. My confluences for DXY$ Shorts are as follows: - Price approaching a 14hr supply zone that has broken structure the downside. - Imbalances have fully been filled and momentum has slowed down (good sign for a reversal) - Huge trend line left way below that price would want to grab and theres also lots of liquidity below to target as take profit levels. - In order for price to keep pushing up it will need to enter a level of demand, so as of now we will be trying to catch sells down towards a demand. P.S. Only if my extreme 7hr supply zone gets violated, we will then know if price wants to continue in its bullish trend or not. But as of now I see price dropping more due to the perpetual BOS's. Also, as the dollar is a direct negative correlation to most of my pairs, the bias will suggest a bullish move to take place for EU, GU and gold If DXY$ decides to continue bearish.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
US30/USD Shorts from 34600.0 down towards 33800.0My bias for US30 currently is for a bit more upside in order to mitigate the 22hr supply zone or the 19hr, both are apart of a key weekly supply level. From this we will expect a sweep of the asian high as well as a consolidation before entering to show that price is slowing down and buys have now become exhausted. We will then wait for a wyckoff distribution and a CHOCH on the lower time frame before we execute our sell positions. As price has been very impulsively bullish I am expecting a retracement for sure hence my bias. My confluences for US30 shorts are as follows: - Price approaching key weekly supply level that caused a CHOCH to the downside. - There's magnets below our POI that need to be taken in the form a liquidity sweep. - There a lot of imbalances below as well as deeper demand levels for price to mitigate. - Price has been moving very bullish with minimal pull backs so price needs to come down. - For price to continue in bullish trend it needs to react off a stronger level of demand. - 22hr supply has also swept liquidity, good sign that the zone will hold. P.S. I am overall bullish however, as we are approaching a key supply I can see a short term sells playing out in order to fill the imbalances below and mitigate a deeper level of demand. This makes sense because us as traders, we ideally want to buy from a discounted price. As of this week we do have CPI coming on Tuesday, I would personally wait after just to see how price reacts from this major news event then make my move. Trade safe and hope you guys have a good week ahead!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
2
BTCUSDT. Short and medium term analysisHi traders! You can consider buying if the buyer protects the hourly level of 35086.57, the daily levels of 33390.95 and 31804.2 (associated with exiting the sideways market) and the medium-term support level for the long-term trend at 24800. As for selling, there is currently no context. Take note of the 10D timeframe. After breaking out of the sideways market that lasted from January 2021 to May 2022 and initiating a short-term trend (with two waves), the price returned to the sideways range (with the lower boundary at 26700). If the buyer defends the last closed candle, then technically, the path is open to 40000, 48000, and 59000.
by AlexeyWolf
2
USDCAD LONG POSSIBILITIES Hi guys, In this analysis I will be covering USDCAD. LEVEL 1.3891 has been acting as a resistance and price has already tapped into it multiple times. Should price begin selling off from this level, The first demand level would be 1.3832 and the one after that would be 1.3804. One other scenario is that price breaks through the immediate resistance with a fake out and taps into supply zone which is 1.3925 then starts selling off. One thing we should consider is Federal fund rate which is going to be publish later today and it will heavily impact the market. so be extremely cautious while taking trades on any of these levels. Be honorable
by AliHassanzadeh
S&P 500 Index. Is it time to short?On the weekly chart, there was a sideways movement from May 2022 to June 2023. It had a breakout with an upward trend (two impulses). The price returned to this sideways range six weeks ago. For the past four weeks, it has been hovering near the upper boundary of the sideways range, unable to close any weekly candles above it. There's a high probability that the price will test the lower boundary of the range at 3636. I made this note a week ago; it's time to update the forecast. On the weekly chart, there are two seller candles on increased volume, which created a seller interest zone with the lower boundary at 4204.3. The most recent weekly candle closed within the historical weekly buyer interest zone with the upper boundary at 4141.8 (historical zones typically don't result in strong reversals). It is possible that the buyer will return from the zone and test the current seller’s zone with the lower border of 4204.3. On the daily chart, the price broke below the lower boundary of the daily sideways range with increased volume. The lower boundary of the daily sideways range coincides with the lower boundary of the current seller interest zone on the weekly timeframe (4204.3), which the buyers haven't yet tested on the daily timeframe. Pay attention to how the sellers closed the daily candle on October 26, 2023. They approached the historical buyer zone and waited for a buyer resurgence. On October 27, 2023, buyers attempted to make a comeback (as seen in the wick of the candle) from this historical weekly zone. However, sellers effortlessly prevailed over buyers on falling volume. There was no buyer at the lower boundary of the daily sideways range, and currently, there is still no buyer. Sales can be sought from the current seller's zone, including protection by the buyer at the level of 4204.3 or from the candle on 26.10.23. The target is 3696.2. The first obstacle for the short position might be the 50% of the latest weekly momentum. As for buying, there's no context for it at the moment. Good luck with your trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by AlexeyWolf
MSFT. Forecast especially for my beloved brotherEspecially for my beloved brother, who likes Microsoft (MSFT) stocks. On the weekly chart, we have a sideways pattern. The price has played out vector 10-11 and is currently forming a bearish vector 11-12 within the sideways range. The daily chart also shows a sideways pattern. The bearish vector 9-10 has been technically played out. However, a significant selling zone has formed almost throughout the sideways range, triggered by the candle on 25.10.23, which incidentally had the highest trading volume in the last 3 months. The zone was tested by the candle on 27.10.23, The seller resumed from the zone, as indicated by the candle's wick. The most likely scenario is for the price to break out of the daily sideways range to the downside (lower boundary at 324.39), protect this breakout, and play out the bearish vector of the weekly sideways pattern. Targets for short positions: 309.5 - the lower boundary of the weekly sideways pattern. 295 - the extremum pierced by the candle on April 24, 2023. 275 - the buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the monthly sideways pattern. If a buyer emerges at the lower boundary of the weekly sideways range, targets 2 and 3 may become irrelevant. Good luck with your trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by AlexeyWolf
Crude oil. Is it time to buy?On the daily chart, the price is in a sideways range. The short vector 5-6 has been played out. Yesterday's candle broke the test level (84.39) of the daily buyer zone on volume. On the hourly chart, there is a trend. The level of 86.3 serves as support for the short trend. After breaking the daily level of 84.39, accumulation takes place. Since the short vector in the daily range has been played out, it's worth considering long positions to play out the long vector 6-7. Aggressive local purchases can be sought above the level of the daily test at 84.39 if the price exits upwards from the accumulation, stabilizes for an hour above 84.39, and is then protected by the buyer. Systemic local purchases are advisable to look for when the price overcomes the support level of the short trend on the hourly chart (86.3), and then the buyer protects this level. Local sales can be sought from the protection of the seller at 84.39, if during the attack on this level, the buyer cannot absorb the last successful candle of the seller (time: 11-00). Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
NYMEX:CLZ2023
by AlexeyWolf
S&P 500 Index. There is no buyer nowOn the daily chart, the price is at the lower boundary of the sideways range. Yesterday's trading day favored the buyer with decreasing volume. On the hourly chart, the buyer resumed from the key impulse bar and twice attempted to breach the level of 4259.2 on volume but failed to do so effectively (failed to close an hourly candle above the level). The buyer has not made a strong presence yet. As mentioned earlier, local sales yesterday were observed from the level of 4259.2. For systemic sales, it is advisable to wait for the price to interact with the daily candle of October 19, 2023. Or after a successful breakout of the lower limit of the daily range and the seller defending this breakout. Local purchases can be sought upon the buyer's protection level at the lower boundary of the daily range: 4217.4. Targets are 4259.2, 4269.9. Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlexeyWolf
S&P 500 Index. Will there be a buyer?On the daily chart, the price interacted with the lower boundary of the sideways range on decreasing volume. The buyer has not yet made a strong presence. On the hourly chart, a buyer's zone has formed at the lower boundary of the sideways range. It is more favorable to seek short positions from the daily candle of October 19, 2023, as previously mentioned. Local sales can also be considered after the seller's protection of 4238.4 or 4259.2. Targets are 4217, 4204, and possibly an update of local lows. One should observe how the price passes through the buyer's zones. Local purchases can be sought upon the resumption of the buyer from the buyer's zone at the lower boundary of the sideways range. Protection level 4217.4 or 4204.3. Targets are 4238.4, 4259.2." Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. The buyer is currently stronger.The daily candle on October 22, 2023, closed above 29695, making it more favorable to look for long positions at the beginning of the week. As a result, on the daily chart, the price has effectively exited the sideways range. As long as the price on the daily chart remains above the boundary of the range, it is preferable to seek long positions, assuming that the buyer will defend the exit from the sideways range. If the price on the daily chart returns to the range, it becomes more favorable to look for short positions after protecting the upper boundary of the sideways range. On the hourly chart, there is an ongoing long-term trend. Long positions can be considered upon buyer protection of their areas of interest in the last impulse, such as 32500 or 31804. If the buyer shows a new impulse, long positions can be sought from the buyer's areas in the new impulse. Sales are advisable to consider only when the price on the daily chart returns to the sideways range. Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
by AlexeyWolf
PT 245 - 250. H/S pattern. Buyers weakening on TSLA. Lazy pump.The H/S pattern is a clear indication that buyers are weakening. If you see the day's price action you'll see that we couldn't even reclaim 262 or close at a weekly high. Today, there was bad news and pumped $10 from the bottom. Yes we played calls here today (and a failed $40 lotto put), but that doesn't mean this price action is sustainable. Anyway, "fundamentals" aside, let's look at some price action: Buyers pushed the price up from blue TL. Failed to make a new high. Forming a left shoulder. Buyers went a little higher this time, but failed again. Back down to blue TL. I alerted calls here and shares. Paid nicely! Now, this week, buyers failed to reclaim 262 resistance and enjoyed a fake pump on Friday to close the week. What happens next is either blue TL dip or white TL dip. More likely is a white TL dip because that would be 3rd touch on white TL and 4th touch on blue TL. 4th is usually bearish. 3rd is bullish. I'll buy again on white TL. Hope this is helpful for you. We've been making fire calls all month. Welcome to follow or let me know how this is helping you. NASDAQ:TSLA AMEX:SPY CAPITALCOM:US100 FX:NAS100
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by kingdips
7
#GBPCAD selling opportunityHello, traders and friends. Let's analyze the GBPCAD chart, where we believe there might be a compelling selling opportunity. In the Daily timeframe, you can see that the price has already broken the market structure to the downside. Since the low formed on September 28th, we've been in what we believe is a bullish corrective phase. Consequently, we are now interested in a selling position. Switching to the 4-hour timeframe, we notice a double top formation that resulted in a lower low, indicating the possibility of bearish continuation, aligning with our higher time frame daily trend. Following this, the price has been moving upwards in a bullish corrective manner, forming a short-term rising channel. Last week, this channel also broke to the downside. In our view, this recent bullish movement resembles a liquidity-taking activity, and we are keen to observe any rejections from the level marked by the arrow on the chart, with the intent to consider selling. Additionally, we have identified several resistance factors within a small zone, including the 4-hour and daily timeframe 200EMA, a supply area in the 4-hour timeframe, and the previous high where many traders have placed their stop-loss orders just above it. This presents an opportunity for banks to potentially extract liquidity. If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment or share your idea with me.
Short
by mohemati
5
Inflation SupercycleOn the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert. Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields rise across the term structure. In all past instances, inverted yield curves have normalized due to bull steepening . The probability that bear steepening would cause an inverted yield curve to normalize is so low that, until now, most term structure models excluded the possibility of it ever happening. In this post, I'll explain why this anomalous event is a major stagflation warning. The chart above shows that the 10-year Treasury yield has been rising much faster than the 3-month Treasury yield throughout 2023, narrowing the once-deep yield curve inversion. Since a yield curve inversion indicates that a recession is coming, and bear steepening indicates that the market is pricing in higher inflation for the short term, and even more so, for the long term, then bear steepening during a yield curve inversion indicates that high inflation may persist even during the recessionary phase. High inflation during the recessionary period is what defines stagflation . Since very strong bear steepening is normalizing a deeply inverted yield curve, the combination of these events is a warning that severe stagflation is likely coming. High inflation has caused Treasury yields to surge at an astronomical rate of change. Bond prices, which move in the opposite direction as yields, have sharply declined causing destabilizing losses. The effects of these massive bond losses are not even close to being fully realized by the broad economy. The image above shows a bond ETF heatmap with year-to-date returns. Large losses have been mounting across numerous bond ETFs. Long-duration Treasury ETF NASDAQ:TLT has declined by more than 18% this year. Click here to interact with the bond ETF heatmap Despite the extreme pace of monetary tightening, many central banks are still struggling to contain inflation. Inflationary fiscal spending and ballooning debt-to-GDP levels are confounding central bank monetary policy efforts. In Argentina, for example, inflation continues to spiral higher despite the central bank raising interest rates to 133%. The chart above shows that the central bank of Argentina has hiked interest rates to 133%. Despite this extreme interest rate, the country's inflation rate continues to spiral higher. In an inflationary spiral, there is no upper limit to how high interest rates can go. As the Federal Reserve tightens the supply of the U.S. dollar -- the predominant global reserve currency -- all other countries (with less demanded fiat currency) generally must tighten their monetary supply by a greater degree in order to contain inflation. If a country fails to maintain tighter monetary conditions than the Federal Reserve, then the supply of that country's (lesser demanded) fiat currency will grow against the supply of the (greater demanded, and scarcer) U.S. dollar, causing devaluation of the former against the latter. In effect, by controlling the global reserve currency, the Federal Reserve is able to export inflation to other countries. This phenomenon is explained by the Dollar Milkshake Theory . The forex chart above shows FX:USDJPY pushing up against 150 yen to the dollar. The longer the Bank of Japan continues to maintain significantly looser monetary conditions than the Fed, the longer the yen will continue to devalue against the U.S. dollar. The meteoric rise in bond yields is particularly concerning because it has broken the long-term downtrend, signaling the start of a new supercycle. After hitting the zero lower bound in 2020, yields have rebounded and pierced through long-term resistance levels. The chart above shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above long-term resistance, ending the period of declining interest rates that characterized the monetary easing supercycle. We've entered into a new supercycle, one in which lower interest rates over time are a thing of the past. The new supercycle will be characterized by persistently high inflation. It will start off insidiously, with brief periods of disinflation, but over the long term it will accelerate higher and higher, ultimately causing today's fiat currencies to meet the same fate that every fiat currency in history has met: hyperinflation. * * * Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
FRED:M2SL
by SpyMasterTrades
46
S&P 500 IndexOn the weekly chart, there was a sideways range from which a trend emerged (two impulses). Price returned to this sideways range five weeks ago, and no weekly candle has managed to close above the range boundary. There is a high probability that the price will test the lower boundary of the range at 3636. On the daily chart, the price is within a sideways range, and after manipulation at the upper boundary of the range at point 2, the price reached the lower boundary. After interacting with the price at 4204.3, it may be possible to assess the presence of buyers. Sales can be considered from the daily candle on 19.10.2023, which serves as protection against exiting the range at the upper boundary of the daily sideways range. For example, when the level at 4278.6 is protected by sellers. Alternatively, sales can be considered after breaking below the lower boundary of the range (4204.3) and protecting the breakdown by sellers. Buying opportunities can be sought after buyers appear and protection occurs at level 4204.3. Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AlexeyWolf