SPX500 Hits New Highs but Fed Caution Limits MomentumSPX500 Overview
Market Context:
The Fed's reluctance to commit to a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting has forced markets to reassess their outlook. This hesitation pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar higher in late trading, weighing on equities.
As it stands, the probability of a rate cut appears to be pushed further out on the timeline, introducing short-term headwinds for risk assets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 printed a new all-time high and maintains bullish momentum after stabilizing above the previous ATH at 6427. As long as the price holds above this level, the bullish continuation toward 6454 remains likely, with a further extension to 6480 possible.
A bearish correction would only be confirmed by a break below 6415.
Resistance Levels: 6454, 6480
Support Levels: 6415, 6389
Support and Resistance
Copper testing support!Following the surprise announcement that the US administration is exempting tariffs on refined metals, the price of copper has tanked and connected with a 6M support from US$4.3805. Notably, directly above, we have a 1Y resistance level from US$4.4590 and a 3M resistance level at US$4.5515, while a breakout south could lead the base metal to as far south as 6M support at US$4.0380.
Given the downside momentum, a breakout lower could serve to add to the current bearish flow and potentially see sellers pyramid positions.
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
Crypto market review: Bitcoin, ETH, and Altcoins Setting Up for Prepared a new in-depth crypto market video update covering BTC, Ethereum, and key altcoins. Here’s a quick summary of the current landscape and what I’m tracking in the charts:
We’ll begin with Bitcoin. After the Fed’s decision, BTC showed a constructive shakeout and has been consolidating tightly around the same range for three weeks. I previously anticipated resistance near the 1.23 area and expected a sideways phase within the 1.15–1.13 support zone. That’s exactly what we’re seeing—shakeouts and quick recoveries. As long as we stay above 1.13 structurally, and especially above yesterday’s highs short-term, I expect BTC to push higher toward the 1.26–1.30 resistance zone.
Institutional buying during the post-Fed dip has been significant. Volume on Coinbase and Binance indicates strong participation, and Bitcoin treasuries have been accumulating. This bolsters confidence in the underlying trend structure.
I wrote in mid-July about BTC’s broader macro structure—this resistance region may trigger a prolonged consolidation, but ideally without breaking June lows. Short-term bias remains bullish.
Ethereum remains the strongest large-cap altcoin. It has respected the 8EMA on pullbacks and shows strength to target 4300–5100 in the coming weeks. It continues to lead risk-on sentiment.
XRP has been deep in consolidation, but we may be seeing a higher low forming. Any rally in BTC and ETH could lift XRP toward 3.30–4.60 levels, possibly even 5.00.
Solana showed strong action through late July, pulling back into mid-term support. As long as this structure holds, I expect upside toward 220–230 and potentially reclaiming ATH zones.
Hyperliquid has been a laggard but held its key macro support. If yesterday marked a bottom, I’ll be watching for higher lows and a move toward 55–60.
Other notable setups:
Brett: Both showing impulsive structures from April lows. Brett in particular looks poised for 74–77, potentially retesting May highs around 95.
ONDO: Recovering key zones and shaping a potential bottoming pattern.
SUI: Leading structure from July lows. After a likely wave-one completion, it could extend toward 5.15–7.70 before topping.
RENDER: Looks to have finished its correction. Potential long-term upside beyond May highs; the macro uptrend might already be underway.
SUPER: Since July breakout, forming a strong trend structure. If it holds the higher low, could reach 1.20–1.46 in coming weeks.
TON: Slow mover, but the macro pattern suggests a bottom with potential toward 4.60 short-term.
LINK: Hasn’t finished its move. Watching for 21–22 as a next target.
FET / Fetch.AI: Macro structure looks great. Watching for recovery from June lows with potential for strong continuation if structure holds.
Trump Coin: In a diagonal pattern post-failed impulsive breakout. If higher lows hold, watch for rally toward 13–14.
LTC: Linear and clean structure. Looks ready to push toward 130–145 before potential base-building.
UNI: Targeting 14–18+ in wave continuation if structure holds.
Let me know in the comments if there’s a specific coin you’d like me to go over. I’ll include it in future updates or make a quick standalone video.
Thanks for watching, and I wish you a successful trading week ahead. Let’s see how far this rally can go through the rest of the summer!
Nifty levels - Aug 01, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
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BankNifty levels - Aug 01, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
DeGRAM | SOLUSD is holding the $177 level📊 Technical Analysis
● SOLUSD is bouncing from the rising trendline support at 177 after a retracement, maintaining structure within a bullish ascending wedge.
● Price holds above the prior resistance-turned-support near 176.9, with a clear path to retest the 205.8 and 219–222 confluence zone.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Solana's 30-day DApp volume ranks top 3 among L1s, signaling increased utility. Institutional SOL inflows also continued for a fifth week, per CoinShares.
● Strong user metrics and positive funding rates suggest bullish momentum remains supported on-chain and through derivatives markets.
✨ Summary
Buy dips above 177. Targets at 205 ▶ 220. Long setup holds while price stays above 175.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD dropped below the support level📊 Technical Analysis
● EURUSD confirmed a double rejection below long-term resistance with two lower highs and broke channel support at 1.1567.
● Price is now trending within a descending channel toward 1.1363, with lower targets pointing into the 1.12–1.11 demand zone.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US Q2 GDP surprised to the upside, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish tone, while Eurozone CPI inflation cooled below forecast.
● Diverging central bank trajectories continue to widen yield differentials in favor of the dollar, sustaining bearish euro flows.
✨ Summary
Short bias confirmed below 1.1567. Break of 1.1450 opens path to 1.1363 ➜ 1.1200 zone. Watch for rallies to fade below trendline.
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BINANCE COIN (BNBUSD): Bullish Continuation Ahead
BNB is going to resume growth after a retest of a recently broken structure.
A bullish breakout of a resistance line of a bullish flag provides a strong bullish confirmation.
I think that the price will go up to 844 level.
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XRPUSDT → Range formation. Retest of resistanceBINANCE:XRPUSDT.P , after a false breakout of the daily resistance level of 3.352 and the elimination of traders, has entered a correction phase. The trading range shown below has been formed, with an emphasis on resistance...
XRP previously formed a false breakout of the daily resistance level of 3.352, as indicated in the idea above. After changing its market character, the price entered a correction phase. Focus on the range of 3.00 - 3.264. A retest of resistance (zone of interest and liquidity) is possible before falling to 3.161, 3.05 or to the liquidity zone of 3.00. There are no technical or fundamental reasons for exiting the consolidation; most likely, a retest of the zone of interest may end in manipulation and a pullback to support...
Resistance levels: 3.1609, 3.264, 3.352
Support levels: 3.05, 3.00
I do not rule out the fact that a retest of the 3.264 resistance level may have a breakout structure and the price will continue to rise, but based on the price behavior pattern on D1, the market structure, and market stagnation, I conclude that at the moment, the chances of seeing a correction from resistance are higher. Further developments will need to be considered after the retest of key zones on the chart...
Best regards, R. Linda!
DeGRAM | GOLD reached the $3300 level📊 Technical Analysis
● XAUUSD remains capped below a broken trendline retest near 3,355, while price forms a lower-high inside a descending channel.
● The repeated rejection of the 3,357.83 resistance level, coupled with failed bullish continuation, points to renewed downside toward 3,300 and 3,262.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● A rebound in the DXY after strong US consumer sentiment and pending home sales adds pressure to gold, reaffirming real-yield strength.
● Traders are reducing long exposure ahead of upcoming NFP data and Powell’s next statement, shifting bias away from risk hedges.
✨ Summary
Short bias below 3,355. Break under 3,320 eyes 3,300 → 3,262. Key breakdown risk if lower trendline fails.
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EURUSD FORMED BEARISH PENNANT. THE PRICE IS READY TO DROP.EURUSD FORMED BEARISH PENNANT. THE PRICE IS READY TO DROP.
EURUSD has been trading sideways within the last day, showing lower highs and higher lows. Eventually, the price has formed the pennant chart pattern.
What is a pennant?
A pennant chart pattern is a short-term continuation pattern in technical analysis, resembling a small symmetrical triangle, formed after a strong price movement (flagpole). It consists of converging trendlines, indicating a brief consolidation before the trend resumes. Bullish pennants form after an uptrend, bearish pennants after a downtrend.
The price is expected to decline towards 1.14500 support level
USOIL IS GOING BULLISH. FOR HOW LONG?USOIL IS GOING BULLISH. FOR HOW LONG?
Brent has started this week with a strong bullish momentum and holds near 6-week high on supply fears. President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on Indian exports and penalize its Russian oil imports. In a parallel move, the US introduced its most extensive sanctions on Iran in seven years. The United States has even offered its oil to the world in exchange for Iranian and Russian oil, but there is evidence that the US production capacity is now at historic highs and is unlikely to grow in the near future.
However, technically oil shows us bearish divergence on RSI and bearish wedge here. The price may reverse towards 6,900.00 as a first target. EIA data showed US crude inventories jumped by 7.7 million barrels last week—the largest increase in six months and defying forecasts for a decline. Market participants are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting this week, expecting a significant output hike.
ETHUSD MAY FORM THE BEARISH WEDGE. THE PRICE IS GETTING READY TOETHUSD MAY FORM THE BEARISH WEDGE. THE PRICE IS GETTING READY TO DROP.
ETHUSD has been moving bullish since July 8. However since July 21 the price started to form the bearish wedge with bearish divergence on RSI on 4-h timeframe.
A bearish wedge is a bearish reversal pattern in an uptrend, where the price forms higher highs and higher lows within converging upward trendlines, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a potential downward reversal. To trade, identify the wedge with declining volume and confirm with RSI or divergence. Sell or short on a breakdown below the lower trendline with a volume spike. Set a stop-loss above the recent high or upper trendline. Target the wedge’s height projected downward from the breakdown or the next support level with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
We expect that the price will establish another bullish momentum and the price will go towards upper border of the wedge, slightly below the 4,100.00 resistance level and will decline towards 3,500.00 support level afterwards.
EURUSD - 31/7/25Price has reached a zone that broke the structure - see BoS on the left. Now that price is here in the zone, im not comfortable entering a buy order yet. The full bearish candle into the zone, leaves me with an indication that price may go lower.
+ve:
1. Big bearish candle in to the BoS zone - price may drop lower
2. There is equal low liquidity on the left which sits just below the zone which is expected to be taken out
4. HTF direction is still bullish
-ve:
1. below the equal low liquidity is an efficient zone before some imbalance
2. that imbalance may draw price to it and stop me out
Second trade idea:
Assuming that the first trade does not hold, then my focus will be the extreme zone where i will place a buy limit.
TP: 8.86R
EURUSD REACHED THE TARGET.EURUSD REACHED THE TARGET.
EURUSD has reached the 1.14500 level and even broke it down. Currently the price consolidates slightly below this level. If the price forms a false breakout of 1.14500 level, this will mean the end of short-term decline in the pair. Stay cautious.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) – 1H Chart Analysis 1. Structure: Broad Range Consolidation
Price remains within a wide horizontal range between 45,137 resistance and 43,792 support. This shows indecision and distribution at highs.
2. Key Rejection Zone
The yellow zone around 45,001–45,137 acted as a strong supply area. Multiple rejections indicate heavy selling interest here.
3. Mid-Zone Compression
Current price is hovering just below 44,765 resistance — acting as a decision point. Break above it may retest the supply zone; rejection could send price lower.
4. Demand Holding at 44,280
The strong bounce from 44,280.25 shows buyers defending this demand zone. It's the key support to watch for bulls.
5. Next Play
Bullish: Break and hold above 44,765 targets 45,001–45,137.
Bearish: Failure leads to 44,280, then 43,973 → 43,792.
Neutral bias unless a clean breakout confirms direction.
GBPJPY: Important Demand Zone 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY is trading within an important demand zone that
is based on a rising trend line and a horizontal support.
We see a false violation of that and a bear trap, followed
by a bullish imbalance candle.
I think that the pair may go up and reach at least 198.08 level.
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UK 100 – Moving Back Into the Spotlight It’s been a while since we covered the UK 100, but it feels like recent moves and the fact there is a Bank of England (BoE) rate decision next Thursday (August 7th) means it warrants some extra attention.
For much of 2025 the UK 100 has been the under achiever when compared to other European indices, but things have changed slightly in July as a result of the breakout above the previous all-time high at 8909 (more on this below in technical update) which has led to multiple record peaks all the way up to the most recent one registered on July 28th at 9177.
This up move has been aided by bullish technical momentum, a weaker GBPUSD exchange rate, which can add support to the index given that UK 100 companies are multi-national, earning over 60% of their revenue outside of the UK, and increased expectations for a BoE rate cut of 25bps (0.25%) at their next rate meeting on Thursday August 7th.
Now, looking forward, before traders get ready for that BoE meeting, they must contend with the challenges presented by President Trump’s trade policy and two key US economic data releases that could impact sentiment towards the UK 100 into the weekend. The first piece of data is the US PCE Index inflation print, released later today at 1330 BST and the second is tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls update at 1330 BST.
Once traders have more clarity on the outlook for global trade after President Trump’s August 1st tariff deadline has passed, alongside the fresh insight into the current path of US inflation and the health of the labour market provided by these two pivotal pieces of economic data, their preparation can begin for a potential 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in the UK, as the market expects and the accompanying commentary from BoE Governor Bailey in the press conference on whether more cuts could be in the pipeline across the remaining months of 2025.
Technical Update: Assessing the Current Uptrend
Since posting a low of 7525 on April 7th it has been a positive period of trading for the UK 100 index, a move that has seen a near 22% advance. As the chart below shows, except for the decline down to 8692 on June 26th, this has been an almost uninterrupted phase of price strength, as a positive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows has materialised.
Of course, there is no guarantee that this type of positive pattern will extend and continue to see new all-time highs posted, but traders may be anticipating further attempts at upside price extension, especially while support below current price levels remains intact.
So, with this in mind, let’s look at what could be the relevant support and resistance levels that might influence trader sentiment over upcoming sessions.
Potential Support Levels:
While Monday did see a new all-time high posted at 9177, a price sell-off then materialised to register a low for the day at 9060, but with support being found at this level, it might be suggested this now represents a higher low within the positive trend and as such, is potentially now the first support focus, as the chart below shows.
Traders may find it useful to monitor how 9060 performs as a support on a closing basis, as if it were to give way over coming sessions, a more extended phase of price weakness may result. Such downside support breaks could then see the focus shift to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 26th to July 28th strength which stands at 8990, possibly even the 50% level at 8933.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the July 28th high at 9177, the UK 100 index may now need to see successful closing breaks above this level to suggest a continuation of the recent positive price trend.
Successful closing breaks above the 9177 high, may be an indication of continued price strength, opening potential for moves to the next possible resistance at 9253, which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, even 9335, the higher 200% extension level.
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Gold Market Update: Major Support at and Supply atGold is recovering after a strong drop from the previous range high. Price is approaching a 4H Order Block near the 3300–3310 zone, which may act as a supply area. A minor liquidity zone has just been tapped, suggesting a potential short-term rejection.
The major support lies at 3269, which sparked the recent bullish move. If price rejects from the OB zone, a pullback toward this support is likely. However, a clean break and hold above the OB may signal further upside.
📌 Key Levels:
Supply Zone: 3300–3310
Support: 3269
🧠 Wait for clear confirmation before executing trades.
GBPUSD FORMS HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN IN 1D TIME FRAME CHARTGBP/USD Forms Head and Shoulders Pattern - Bearish Breakdown Expected
The GBP/USD currency pair has developed a clear Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 1-DAY chart, signaling potential weakness ahead. This technical formation - characterized by a central peak (head) flanked by two lower highs (shoulders) - suggests the recent uptrend may be exhausting as sellers gain control.
Current Market Structure
Price action remains confined within a bearish framework, making consistent lower highs and lower lows since failing at the pattern's right shoulder. The pair now tests critical support near the neckline of the H&S formation. A confirmed break below this level would validate the pattern and likely accelerate downward momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
- *Downside Target*: 1.27300 emerges as the next major support if bearish momentum sustains
- Resistance Zone: The 1.37900 level now acts as formidable overhead resistance
- Neckline Break: A daily close below current support would confirm the H&S pattern
Trading Implications
The technical setup favors:
1) Maintaining short positions while price holds below the right shoulder high
2) Watching for increased volume on breakdown moves to confirm bearish conviction
3) Considering long positions only if buyers reclaim 1.37900 resistance
Risk Factors
Traders should monitor:
- UK inflation data and BoE policy signals
- Fed interest rate expectations
- General USD strength across currency markets
This pattern projects approximately 900 pips of potential downside if fully realized. However, traders should wait for confirmed breakout momentum rather than anticipating the move, as false breakdowns remain possible in current market conditions. Proper position sizing and stop-loss placement above recent swing highs remains essential for risk management.
Note: Forex trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own analysis before entering positions.