SPX500 Dips Ahead of NFP as Tariff Risks RiseSPX: S&P 500 Dips to Close July — Still Positive for the Month Amid Tariff Tensions & Fed Uncertainty
The S&P 500 retreated in the final session of July, weighed down by renewed tariff concerns and lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Despite the late pullback, the index remains positive for the month overall.
Looking ahead, non-farm payrolls (NFP) and U.S. jobs data are expected to have a strong impact on market direction. In addition, August 1st marks a key date for potential tariff developments, which could trigger further volatility.
Technical Outlook – SPX500
The index has dropped approximately 2.5% since yesterday and maintains a bearish bias as long as it trades below 6283. If the price continues to slide, the next downside target is 6246, with further support at 6223.
However, if the price manages to close above 6289 on the 1H timeframe, it could trigger a bullish recovery toward 6320 and 6341.
Pivot Line: 6283
Support Levels: 6246 • 6223
Resistance Levels: 6320 • 6341
Support and Resistance
DeGRAM | GOLD fixed below the triangle📊 Technical Analysis
● XAUUSD is forming a bearish descending wedge within a broader symmetrical triangle, facing rejection at 3,310 near prior support-turned-resistance.
● Repeated failure to hold above trendlines and continued lower highs favor a drop toward the 3,246.56 level, with possible overshoot if support breaks.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Rising real yields and hawkish Fed tone continue to pressure gold; ISM Manufacturing Prices and NFP loom as next volatility catalysts.
● Reduced ETF inflows and strong dollar on resilient US macro data weigh on demand for non-yielding assets.
✨ Summary
Short bias below 3,310. Breakdown eyes 3,246 → 3,200 zone. Resistance holds while trendline caps recovery.
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BTCUSDT: Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames.
A strong move requires a correction to major support and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
127-128k incoming ( altcoins round ? )Hi, Bitcoin seems to have completed its short term Elliott wave 4 correction and the price action analysis also confirms that this time Bitcoin will be able to break the 120-119 resistance, I predict Bitcoin to make a new high around 127-128. Altcoins have not grown that much yet and if the price can make a reliable consolidation above 120k, altcoins will start to rise.
XRP — Mapping Out the Next High-Probability Long SetupXRP continues to respect key levels, delivering clean setups and strong technical reactions.
📉 Recent Price Action Recap
After the flush from $3.65 into the $3.00 support zone, XRP printed a solid bounce back toward the $3.30 resistance area, forming a clean short setup between $3.30–$3.35.
Price is now trading mid-range within the 6-day consolidation.
🟢 Next High-Probability Long Setup
A prime long opportunity lies between $2.96 and $2.9175 sitting within a key daily order block.
Confluence at this zone includes:
Liquidity pool just below the $2.9555 swing low
Anchored VWAP from the $1.9083 swing low resting just under the block
0.618 Fib Speed Fan lining up as dynamic support (July 30 – Aug 2)
2.272 Trend-Based Fib Extension at $2.9297
📈 Long Trade Setup
Entry Zone: $2.96 – $2.9175
Stop Loss: Below anchored VWAP (clear invalidation)
Target: $3.1/$3.13+
R:R: ~1:3+
💡 Educational Insight
This setup is a great example of how multiple tools layered together (like Fibonacci levels, VWAPs, order blocks and liquidity zones) can significantly increase the probability of a trade playing out.
When structure, volume-based tools and time alignment all point to the same area, it creates a high-confluence trade zone. These are the areas where risk is most defined and reward is most favourable, a principle every technical trader should anchor their strategy around.
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SILVER (XAGUSD): More Growth Ahead
It looks like Silver is going to continue growing next week,
following a strong bullish reaction to a key daily horizontal support.
The next strong resistance is 3748.
It will be the next goal for the buyers.
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Salesforce May Face DistributionSalesforce has limped as other tech stocks hit new highs, and some traders may think it’s going into distribution.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish price gap on May 29 despite better-than-expected quarterly results. That may reflect waning enthusiasm about the software company’s fundamentals.
Second is the pre-earnings closing price of $276.03. CRM has remained trapped below that level, which may suggest it’s become resistance.
Third is the June 13 low of $258. The stock bounced there in mid-July but may now be at risk of breaking it.
Next, Bollinger Bandwidth has narrowed as the stock formed a tight range between the two levels. Could price movement expand following that period of compression?
Last, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA in April. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also below the 21-day EMA. Those patterns may be consistent with bearishness in the long and short terms.
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My View for SOLANA next moveMy View for SOLANA next move.
Technically, SOL has been trading within a channel for a while now, with the formation of HHs and HLs.
If fundamentals play out positively long to mid-term, we are likely to see SOLNA fall to $150 zone before another upward leg forms. This leg may rally to as high as $220.
Trade with care.
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SHIB/USDT: Shiba Inu Setting Up for a Bullish Reversal?Shiba Inu (SHIB) is currently trading around $0.00001208, showing signs of stabilizing near a key support zone after a recent pullback. The market appears to be forming a rounded double bottom pattern, which could evolve into a strong W-shaped bullish reversal if confirmed with volume and breakout above short-term resistance (~$0.0000135).
This level could be pivotal for long-term accumulation.
What to Watch
*Key Support Zone: $0.00001200 - price is holding this level firmly.
*Short-Term Resistance: $0.0000135 - a breakout could confirm bullish continuation.
*Indicators: RSI is cooling off after a high, which could provide momentum for a new leg up.
SHIB may be quietly setting the stage for a powerful recovery. This support level looks like a gift for those with patience and vision. DCA smartly, monitor dips, and don’t panic, because when this pattern breaks out, you’ll wish you had loaded up earlier.
This isn't about hype...it’s about positioning. Stay disciplined. Stick to your plan. SHIB might just surprise everyone again.
ASML monopolist, a +181% | 2Y oppertunityASML is the monopoly Extreme ultra violet machinery company. There is no one close to it's technology or there is no one investing enough to R&D a thing like it. The whole AI datacenter and cloud chip growth depends on EUV machinery of ASML developed in 2013 (>10y of PhD level R&D deveopment). The first new High-NA EUV systems have been deployed at Intel in July 2025 for research purposes and will scale just like the EUV already does to keep pace with moore's law. TSMC has stated it will not yet buy & depoly the newest machines jet, but has to expand with the 10 year older tech EUV machines just to get the AI chip demand going. AI chip demand at NVIDIA is growing harder than expected comfirmed by latest earnigns of alphabet, microsoft, meta and amazon. The whole AI data center growh depends on 2013 asml tech machines, and they already have a new tech High-NA EUV machine, just figure.
Also don't sleep on BESI a packing machinery wonder, due to hybrid bonding which makes stacking 3D chip structures possible.
#GoHighTechNetherlands
HelenP. I Bitcoin will rebound down from resistance levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. A technical review of the chart reveals a prolonged period of horizontal consolidation, during which the price has been trading within a well-defined range between support at 114700 and resistance near 119700. This phase of balance follows a significant prior uptrend, and a major ascending trend line is currently intersecting this range. My analysis for a short position is based on the expectation of a final 'test and fail' at the top of this consolidation. I believe the price will make one more attempt to rally towards the resistance zone around 119700. A strong rejection from this area, demonstrating sellers' control, would serve as the main confirmation for a bearish bias. Such a rejection would likely initiate a powerful downward move across the range, with sufficient momentum to break the critical ascending trend line. This would be a significant structural event, signaling a potential reversal of the larger trend. Therefore, the primary goal for this scenario is logically set at the 114700 support level, the bottom of the consolidation range. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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How to seize the key turning points in the gold market?The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best strategy. When the trend emerges, jump in; don't buy against it, or you'll suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is a haven for all kinds of resistance, so don't hold onto positions. I'm sure many people have experienced this: the more you hold onto positions, the more panic you become, leading to ever-increasing losses, poor sleep, and missed opportunities. If you share these concerns, why not try following Tian Haoyang's lead and see if it can open your eyes? I'm always here for you if you need help, but how can I help you if you don't even offer a hand?
Gold did not fall below 3280 during the day on Friday and started to fluctuate in the range of 3280-3300. The non-farm payroll data was bullish, and it directly broke through the pressure of 3315, and then broke through the important pressure of 3335 again. As of now, it has reached a high near 3355. The non-farm payroll data market has almost been exhausted. Next, we will focus on the technical form adjustment. At present, you can consider light shorting in the area near 3355-3370. After all, chasing long is risky, and the technical side needs to be adjusted. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me.
Based on the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance is near 3355-3365, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3370-3375. Short-term buy orders should be taken if a rebound continues. I'll provide detailed trading strategies at the bottom of the page, so stay tuned.
Gold operation strategy: Short gold in batches when gold rebounds to 3355-3370, with the target being the area around 3340-3335. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
Nifty levels - Jul 04, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
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Bitcoin Could Accept bearish TrendBitcoin is currently testing a key resistance zone between 120,000 and 121,000. While price action is attempting to break higher, market conditions suggest the possibility of a false breakout rather than a sustained bullish continuation.
BTC has approached a significant resistance band, and early signs of exhaustion are visible. Unless the price decisively holds above 121,000, any breakout may lack conviction. Given the broader unresolved downtrend, a corrective move remains likely.
If the breakout fails to sustain, we anticipate a pullback toward the 117,000 to 115,000 range. This would align with a retest of previous support zones and continuation of the short-term bearish structure.
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HOOD watch $110 then $113: Dual Golden fibs trying to TOP itHOOD has been a massive bull run since April lows.
Now battling a dual Golden fib zone $110.39-113.56.
Top of the zone is a well proven Golden Genesis fib.
See "Related Publications" for previous charts ------->>>>>>>
Such as this PERFECT catch of a serious bounce:
Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts.
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NVDA heads up at $183.72: Golden Genesis fib to mark a TOP?Chips have been flying high since the April lows.
NVDA has just hit a Golden Genesis fib at $183.72
This is a "very high gravity" fib so expect a reaction.
It is PROBABLE that we "orbit" this fib a few times.
It is POSSIBLE that we reject to form a major top.
It is PLAUSIBLE that we Break-n -Retest to continue.\
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See "Related Publications" for previous EXACT plots ------>>>>>>>>
Such as this post at the last Golden Genesis:
Hit the BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts
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ZORA 5-Wave Completion — 30% Crash Incoming?After exploding +1150% in just 20 days and completing all 5 waves, ZORA is now consolidating — trading sideways just under the $0.10 psychological level for the past 4 days.
📉 Current Market Structure
The current structure shows signs of a developing Head & Shoulders pattern, with price:
Trading below the daily open (dOpen) and weekly open (wOpen) → Bearish signs
Hovering near the prior daily open (pdOpen) → a breakdown here would confirm bearish continuation
🔴 Short Setup - Bearish Scenario
If ZORA breaks below pdOpen, we’re likely heading for:
0.618 Fib retracement at $0.06137 of the final wave 5
Confluence with 1.272 Trend-Based Fib Extension (TBFE) at $0.06148
This zone marks the next high-probability reaction point and a potential long opportunity if price shows a bounce or reversal.
📉 Overall Short Trade Target
The full retracement target sits between $0.0529 and $0.0514, offering multiple layers of confluence:
0.5 Fib retracement of the full 1150% move
0.786 Fib retracement of the final wave 5
Aligned with an old trading range and daily level
This makes it an ideal demand zone for patient bulls but only once price confirms.
💡 Educational Insight
This setup highlights an example of Elliott Wave Theory in action — after a strong 5-wave impulse move, markets often enter a corrective phase. The completion of wave 5, especially near key psychological levels like $0.10, often marks a local top, where price corrects toward key Fibonacci retracement zones.
Combining wave structure with confluence factors like Fib levels, VWAP, and prior trading ranges helps traders identify high-probability reversal zones — allowing for better timing, risk management, and trade planning. Always wait for confirmation before jumping into any trades.
Summary
Bearish continuation confirmed on pdOpen breakdown
First support zone: $0.0613–$0.0614
Final downside target: $0.0529–$0.0514
Look for long opportunities only on reaction + confirmation
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U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.
Yesterday the natural gas storage report came out higher than expected. U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average to 195 Bcf from 171 Bcf the week before, the EIA reports. The storage increase was bigger than the 24 Bcf average for the week, and above the 36 Bcf estimate. However, the price rised on 2.35% afterwards, supported by increased volume, which indicates the strength of the level. The upward movement towards the 3.3000 level is highly expected.
Additionally, seasonals suggest us that current prices may become the lowest till the end of the year. Historically, since August the natural gas prices increase in anticipation of a new heating season and higher energy demand (pic2).
Bitcoin: Expected Cool-Off or Cause for Concern?After rallying more than 25% off the June lows, Bitcoin is finally taking a breather with a much-anticipated pullback. But as expected, the fear meter is spiking, especially across CT.
Was this cool-off really a surprise? Not quite.
The signs were there: price stalling at upper extremes, responsive sellers stepping in at perceived overextensions, and inefficient zones left behind during sharp impulsive moves.
Of course, reading it in real-time is easier said than done. Emotions always complicate execution , but that’s a separate conversation.
In this post, let’s break down the current structure in detail —using volume profile, TPO charts, and market structure analysis, to give you a clearer picture of what’s unfolding. We’ll also explore a few scenarios worth watching as the next move shapes up.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
➺ Volume Profile
➺ TPO
➺ Key Technical Insights
➺ Market Structure
➺ Trade Scenarios and What to Watch
➺ TLDR
⦿ Volume Profile
Currently, we’re seeing two key zones of balance : one broad range that held for over 60 days and a tighter 21-day structure that formed at higher levels. These are classic areas of value where buyers and sellers found temporary agreement, establishing balance.
The sharp move from ~111,000 to ~122,000 was largely impulsive , with little volume built along the way, suggesting initiative buying in early July. As is often the case with such thin zones, they tend to get revisited once momentum fades. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
As price dips into this low-volume pocket, the key question is:
Will the market accept this zone and begin building value here, or will it reject and bounce back toward higher ground?
Looking at the Volume Range Visible Profile (VRVP) since June 7th, the nearby Value Area High (VAH) sits around ~111,000 . If current support doesn’t hold, this becomes the next major volume magnet. That said, there’s also a low-volume node (LVN) just above 111,000 , which could act as a demand pocket and trigger a responsive bounce.
In simple terms:
– Acceptance into the LVN could lead to new range formation at lower levels
– A sharp bounce off ~110,000 might reestablish the prior higher balance, or create a fresh range between the two existing areas
The next few sessions will reveal whether the market is hunting for new value or just shaking out weak hands.
⦿ TPO
Zooming into the 4H TPO chart, we can clearly see the evolving monthly profiles from May through August. And as is often the case, the market found resistance right where you’d expect: at the extremes.
The upper end of July’s profile became a battleground. Buyers attempted multiple pushes above that upper balance, but each effort was consistently faded by responsive sellers , signaling growing exhaustion at the top.
Eventually, that pressure gave way to an impulsive breakdown, driven by initiative selling. Notably, price didn’t rotate gently back into the previous range, but it sliced straight into a thin zone of prior low participation.
Now, the market is sitting at the low-volume region , and the next key battle is shaping up. Additionally, The 108,000 to 110,000 area carries weight as it served as the Value Area High (VAH) for both the May and June profiles. If buyers are going to respond, this is one of the more likely places for them to step in.
⦿ Key Technical Insights
▸ Failed Acceptance Above 21-Day Balance
Repeated attempts to hold above the short-term balance were rejected, signaling buyer fatigue and a lack of conviction at higher levels.
▸ Initiative Sellers Took Control
Once demand dried up, sellers stepped in aggressively. The thin participation during the recent rally left little structural support, allowing price to drop quickly.
▸ No Value Built Below Yet
The zone currently being tested saw minimal trading earlier. If bulls want to reclaim control, they’ll need to build value here and establish a new base.
▸ Prior Balance High as Potential Support
Price is now retesting the top of the 60+ day balance area from above, a classic setup where previous resistance can become support. This area also aligns with a known demand shelf.
▸ Deviation Below the 200 MA Cloud
Price has slipped below the 200 MA cloud and is nearing a key flip zone. A test of the 110,000 level next week wouldn’t be surprising. That area could serve as a strong support zone where a new accumulation phase begins.
⦿ Market Structure
The broader market structure points to a transition in progress. After spending over two months in balance , price broke out to the upside —only to form another short-lived range at higher levels. That, too, gave way to a swift breakdown.
This kind of “failed acceptance at higher prices” is often an early signal that the market may revisit prior zones of interest, typically areas where value was last built.
All eyes now shift to the 110,000–111,000 zone , the high of the previous 60-day balance.
We’re in a classic test-retest phase, where the market is probing for conviction . These moments often set the stage for the next significant move, either continued distribution lower, or the beginning of a re-accumulation phase.
⦿ Scenarios & What to Watch
As Bitcoin pulls back into key structural zones, several scenarios are in play. Here's what to monitor in the coming sessions:
Scenario 1: Re-Acceptance into 21-Day Balance
▸ If price reclaims and holds above ~116K, we could see a rotation back toward the upper end of the short-term balance near ~120K.
▸ This would suggest the recent breakdown was a failed auction or bear trap, not the start of a broader trend reversal.
▸ Watch for initiative buying above the demand shelf with follow-through volume.
Scenario 2: Choppy Mid-Balance Activity
▸ Price remains range-bound between ~110K and ~116K, forming a new short-term balance zone.
▸ Expect slower movement and back-and-forth behavior as the market decides its next direction.
▸ Patience is key here. Watch volume and initiative behavior to gauge strength.
Scenario 3: Rejection and Continuation Lower
▸ If price fails to hold above ~110K, there’s potential for a move down to the POC near ~104K, or even deeper toward ~100K (Value Area Low).
▸ These are low-volume zones, which rarely offer strong support unless new value is built.
▸ This would signal a continuation of the current imbalance and potentially mark a structural trend shift.
I’m primarily focused on Scenario 1 and 2 , as we appear to be in a late bull phase. A deeper pullback toward 100K increases the risk of a broader trend change, making it less attractive from a risk/reward standpoint.
⦿ TLDR
▸ Buyers failed to hold the top of the 21-day balance. Clear signs of exhaustion.
▸ Price dropped into a prior low-volume zone, which now acts as potential demand.
▸ This area has never been accepted before - either buyers step in, or we go lower.
▸ Reclaiming ~116K could fuel a move back toward 120K+.
▸ Failure to hold ~110K opens the door to 104K, maybe even 100K.
What happens next week will likely set the tone for the next major move. Watch how the market responds to acceptance vs rejection zones, and let price action confirm your bias before you act.
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What’s your read on the current structure? Let me know in the comments! 📉
⚠️ Disclaimer
As always, this post is purely for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Or at the very least, consult your cat. 🐱
BTCUSDT: Elliot Wave AnalysisAs you can see in the chart, the fourth wave has ended and there is a possibility of an increase in the next stage to the level between 128,000 and 131,000, followed by a correction for a larger fourth wave and finally the last leg of the increase to the fifth wave, which has the possibility of reaching 139,000 to 140,000.
XAUUSD TRADE UPDATE MISSED TRADE Hey everyone here’s a trade recap of the week at first we were interested to take buys at 3254 zone as first entry and scale in at 3287 zone but price pulled down slightly missed the first entry and I didn’t execute & the second entry didn’t execute that too and market skyrocket if price activated the first entry we would’ve caught a huge trade today,the first one didn’t activated so I didn’t execute the second entry which is the 3287 zone that buyers came in so we move on and I will keep on sharing potential good setups and have a beautiful weekend guys….