USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoringUSDJPY for a selling opportunity around 145.700 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 145.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Support and Resistance
WEAT on the move?Wheat futures (ZW) have cleared a zone of resistance with a 4.6% one day move. As tracked by the WEAT ETF, current price seems to be heading for a retest of the 200 Daily SMA (currently at $4.90). The 200 Daily SMA has reversed previous attempts to break out in October 2024 and February 2025. Will third time be different?
Note that this ETF reached a high over $12 in 2022 when the Russian/Ukrainian war started.
LULU 📉TechnicalAnalysis: LULU – 15-Min Chart (Short Bias)
On the 15-minute timeframe, LULU is currently forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish market structure. Price recently broke below a key intraday support zone near $243, which had previously held as a short-term demand area. This breakdown was followed by a weak bullish retracement, suggesting supply is in control.
The retracement failed to reclaim the previous structural break, forming what looks like a bearish continuation flag or supply retest, providing an ideal short entry opportunity.
Price is currently trading below the 50-period EMA, and momentum indicators are showing bearish divergence, with price attempting minor higher wicks while momentum (measured via RSI or MACD) continues to trend downward.
From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, the internal structure shifted bearishly after a clear break of structure (BOS). Price is reacting to a prior liquidity sweep above $248 before dropping, showing signs of institutional distribution. That high can now be considered a short-term supply origin, and price continues to respect that imbalance.
🔻 Price Target: $225
The next key HTF (higher-timeframe) inefficiency zone lies near $225, aligning with:
Daily bullish OB that hasn’t been mitigated
Previous strong bounce zone
A potential magnet for resting liquidity
📊 Fundamentals Supporting the Bearish Move
Earnings Outlook & Valuation Concerns: LULU's most recent earnings beat expectations, but guidance was tepid, and margin compression was noted, especially on international expansion and inventory buildup.
Consumer Sentiment Shift: Discretionary spending has weakened post-COVID boom in premium apparel; market is rotating into staples and discount retail.
Technical Selloff in Growth Sector: Broader weakness in growth stocks and high-beta names following hawkish Fed commentary reinforces LULU’s downside risk.
WEAT making move?Wheat futures (ZW) have cleared a zone of resistance with a 4.6% one day move. As tracked by the WEAT ETF, current price seems to be heading for a retest of the 200 Daily SMA (currently at $4.90). The 200 Daily SMA has reversed previous attempts to break out in October 2024 and February 2025. Will third time be different?
Note that this ETF reached a high over $12 in 2022 when the Russian/Ukrainian war started.
The market is closed today. How to arrange gold in the evening?📰 Impact of news:
1. The interest rate remains unchanged and leads to new lows in the short term
2. Geopolitical tensions provide support for risk aversion
📈 Market analysis:
The market is expected to not fluctuate much today. Generally speaking, it is difficult to stand on one foot to form a short-term bottom. There should be a second wave of bottom exploration, a secondary low point, and then the bottom is explored and pulled up to break through the previous high point. Only then can the turning point be officially established and the decline end. Moreover, the 1H moving average is spreading downward. Therefore, in the short term, we still pay attention to the 3375-3385 line of resistance and the 3360-3355 line of support below.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3375-3385
TP 3365-3360-3355
BUY 3360-3355
TP 3370-3380-3405-3420
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
The wealth code of crude oil is: low and long
💡Message Strategy
According to market research, Iran's crude oil export infrastructure has not been directly hit yet, and most of the impact is still concentrated on shipping. However, analysts pointed out that once the conflict spreads to the entire region, oil prices are likely to rise further.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the market's biggest concern. It is the throat of about one-fifth of the world's crude oil supply. Although there is no sign that Iran is trying to block the channel, any escalation of the situation may pose a serious threat to the global energy supply chain.
"Trump's threat to Iran's supreme leader shows that diplomatic channels are no longer effective," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Financial Markets Ltd. in Singapore. "If Iran's exports are interrupted, or even in the worst case scenario such as the Hormuz blockade, oil prices may soar rapidly."
The rise in geopolitical risks has also triggered turmoil in financial markets, with investors turning to safe-haven assets such as gold, and the volatility of the crude oil market has hit a three-year high. At the same time, crude oil producers have stepped up hedging operations, and futures and options trading volumes have surged.
The latest API crude oil inventory data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, further reinforcing market expectations of tight supply. According to data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) in the early hours of June 18, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 11 million barrels in the week ending June 14, far exceeding market expectations of a decline of 2.5 million barrels, marking the largest weekly drop since August last year.
📊Technical aspects
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows a clear bullish trend. After breaking through the previous high of $72, the price quickly rose and stabilized above $75, showing strong upward momentum. The current K-line has closed with long positive lines, and the red column of the MACD indicator has expanded, and the fast and slow lines have crossed, indicating that the bullish momentum continues to increase.
At the same time, the price has moved away from the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the overall trend is still upward. If the geopolitical situation continues to be tense, the target may be raised to $77.5 or even the integer mark of $80, and the support will focus on the vicinity of $72.50.
💰 Strategy Package
Crude oil has reached our upward target of 74.00 yesterday and fell back. The current upward pressure on crude oil is around 75.50. If it breaks through upward, it will soon reach our second target of 77.50.
rend: Upward trend
Support: Around 72.50
Resistance: Around 75.50
Long Position:72.00-72.50,SL:71.50
The first target is around 75.00
The second target is around 77.50
#BSVUSDT #1D (ByBit) Falling wedge breakoutBitcoin Satoshi Vision is pulling back to 100EMA daily support where it seems likely to bounce and resume bullish, mid-term.
⚡️⚡️ #BSV/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (2.0X)
Amount: 4.5%
Entry Targets:
1) 38.05
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 63.54
Stop Targets:
1) 29.54
Published By: @Zblaba
AMEX:BSV BYBIT:BSVUSDT.P #BitcoinSatoshiVision #PoW
Risk/Reward= 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +134.0%
Possible Loss= -44.7%
Estimated Gain-time= 2 months
Continue to short gold after the reboundGold has currently hit a low of around 3347, and rebounded after slightly breaking through 3350. It has now rebounded to around 3370. Will gold continue to rebound and hit 3400 again?
I think it is unlikely that gold will continue to rebound and hit 3400 in the short term. From a fundamental perspective, many of the news leaked out about the situation in the Middle East are untrue, and the conflict has not escalated further, so gold has not reacted much to this; and as market expectations for interest rate cuts decrease, the impact of news supporting gold's upward trend is gradually weakening;
From the current structure, since gold fell below 3370, bears have completely taken the upper hand. Although gold has rebounded from around 3347, it is only a short-term technical repair and oversold rebound from a structural perspective, and it cannot be said that it is a restart of bulls. So I think gold still has the risk of a second decline after the rebound, and once gold falls again, it may trigger a large number of profit-taking orders and a large number of short-sellers to enter the market.
As the center of gravity of gold shifts downward, the short-term resistance area moves down to 3380-3390; the current support area below is near 3350, followed by 3335. So for short-term trading, I still prefer gold short trading, and we can continue to short gold with this short-term resistance area.
The reason why gold was suddenly sold off
💡Message Strategy
Market dehydration news:
1. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained a stable stance on interest rates, maintaining them in the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed expects to implement two rate cuts this year, but policymakers expect inflation to rise. They also lowered their outlook for gross domestic product (GDP).
2. After the Fed's decision was released, the spot gold price fell sharply from the level near $3,396 per ounce; during Powell's speech, the gold price accelerated its decline, once falling to around $3,362 per ounce.
3. Powell said that the current policy stance is ready for flexible response, "At present, we are in a good position to wait for more information about the possible direction of the economy before considering adjusting policies."
4. Powell pointed out that the Fed needs to further understand the current situation before considering adjusting monetary policy. He said that given the continued changes in trade, fiscal and regulatory policies, the Fed needs more time to assess their impact on the economy.
📊Technical aspects
On the 1H chart of gold, gold fell back from a two-month high, hitting a new low in a week, and the short-term trend is biased towards adjustment.
For the upper pressure of gold, pay attention to the intraday high point of gold price rebound at 3380-90 US dollars, which is also near the 5-day moving average of the daily line. Secondly, pay attention to the integer position of 3400 US dollars, which is also the high point of gold price rebound on Wednesday. For further strength, pay attention to the upper track of the daily Bollinger band at 3425 US dollars;
For the lower support of gold, pay attention to the intraday low of 3355-60 US dollars, which is the middle track position of the daily Bollinger band and near the weekly MA5 moving average. The 5-day moving average golden cross turns down, the MACD indicator is close to forming a slight dead cross, the KDJ indicator dead cross slows down, and the RSI indicator dead cross turns up. The short-term technical aspect shows that there is a risk of correction in gold prices.
💰Strategy Package
Short Position:3390-3400,SL:3410,Target: 3370-3360
Long Position:3355-3365,SL:3345,Target: 3380-3390
AUDNZD: Intraday Bearish Move Ahead?! 🇦🇺🇳🇿
AUDNZD nicely reacted to a key horizontal resistance level.
The price formed a bearish CHoCH on an hourly time frame
after its test.
I expect a retracement to 1.086 level.
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Gold breaks down, short-term bears dominate the rhythmThe Fed's June resolution kept interest rates unchanged, but Powell's remarks (expected to slow down the pace of future rate cuts) suppressed gold prices, causing gold prices to fall from around $3,396 to $3,362; the rebound of the US dollar index put short-term pressure on gold, but gold rebounded slightly when the US dollar pulled back; the conflict between Iran and Israel continued to ferment, and the safe-haven demand partially supported the gold price, limiting the decline. After several days of volatility, gold opened slightly higher today and then fell sharply to $3,347.56 per ounce, breaking the unilateral decline in the volatile trend. The 4-hour moving average is in a short position, the Bollinger band is narrowing, and the gold price is running near the lower Bollinger band. Therefore, today's operation is to rebound and short.
Operational suggestions: Arrange short positions in batches in the 3370-3385 range, follow the trend, and control risks. Target 3350-3340.
EURUSD: at key resistance: Will price rebound to 11300?Quick recap on EURUSD, seriously déjà vu of my previous analysis on EURUSD - once again we see the price coming towards the same resistance level. This is a level where it has struggled to break through and reversed nicely to the downside as expected. For me it's definitely one to monitor, especially for anyone considering short trades.
If we start seeing signs that the price is getting rejected here: like long wicks, bearish candles, or buyers starting to lose momentum, I think we could see a move down toward the 1.11300 level. I am targeting a slight bounce like before, nothing major. But if price cleanly breaks out, that would rule out the bearish outlook and suggest even further upside will follow.
This area is pretty important and could give us a better idea of where price is headed next.
Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Ethereum channelThis is a straightforward analysis. Ethereum has been trading in an ascending parallel channel for 6 weeks now. As long as this pattern stays valid, ETH is a long at the bottom and short at the top of the channel, repeat. Round numbers support is 2450 and resistance is 2750.
Trade idea:
Long: 2530
Profit: 2750
Stop: 2450
Nifty Analysis EOD – June 19, 2025 – Thursday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – June 19, 2025 – Thursday 🔴
📉 Bookish Spinning Top Doji – Another Day of Indecision on Expiry
Nifty opened with a mild +16-point gap-up and immediately dipped to test the Previous Day Low (PDL), marking the day low at 24,738.10. A quick reversal took the index 125 points higher, reaching a high of 24,863, only to settle back into theta-eating mode around VWAP.
Just as things looked ready to turn, a 13:50 breakout attempt fizzled as the price faced rejection above the CPR zone, leading to a final dip below the previous low, touching a new intraday low at 24,733.
Though the intraday close was at 24,744.70, the settlement close was 24,793.25 — a 47.65-point difference that’s not trivial, especially on expiry day.
The entire day remained a narrow-range, rollercoaster ride — clearly showing neither bulls nor bears could take charge. The total range was just 130 points, forming a textbook Spinning Top, which reflects market contraction.
📌 Now what?
Keep a close eye on the range:
🟢Bullish Breakout ➤ above 24,862 (CDH)
🔴Bearish Breakdown ➤ below 24,733 (CDL)
The squeeze is on. Expansion is near.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,803.25
High: 24,863.10
Low: 24,733.40
Close: 24,793.25
Change: −18.80 (−0.08%)
📊 Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 10.00 pts → 🔻 Small Red Candle
Upper Wick: 59.85 pts
Lower Wick: 59.85 pts
🔍 Interpretation
Equal wicks show balanced buying and selling.
Small real body signals strong indecision.
Intraday volatility was neutral despite expiry impact.
🕯 Candle Type
⚖️ Perfect Spinning Top / Doji-like Candle – Indicates market contraction, waiting for directional resolution.
📌 Key Insight
The market continues its tight range-bound structure.
Any breakout beyond 24,865 or breakdown below 24,730 could trigger directional moves.
Till then: “Wait and watch mode.”
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 240.08
IB Range: 125.00 → Medium IB
Market Structure: ⚖️ Balanced
Trades:🚫 No Trade Triggered by System
📌 Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
24,894 ~ 24,882
24,972 ~ 25,000
25,060 ~ 25,080
25,102 ~ 25,125
Support Levels
24,825 ~ 24,847
24,725 ~ 24,735
24,660
24,590
💭 Final Thoughts
The market is compressing like a coiled spring.Spinning tops near resistance often signal upcoming volatility.Let the breakout come to you — don’t pre-empt, participate.
🧠 “When the market sleeps in narrow ranges, it dreams of big moves.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
DeGRAM | GOLD aim to test the lower boundary📊 Technical Analysis
● Hourly price is defending the channel’s lower half: three consecutive wicks bounced at 3 360, forming a descending flag whose base coincides with the dynamic support.
● OBV is edging higher while the flag narrows; a close above 3 408 would unlock the flag-measured move toward the upper rail / horizontal target at 3 444–3 450.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● World Gold Council reports India’s jewellery demand rebounded 8 % w/w as monsoon concerns eased, while CME data show fresh 6 K-lot COMEX short-covering after the latest FOMC testimony tempered rate-hike talk.
✨ Summary
Long 3 360–3 380; flag break > 3 408 eyes 3 444 → 3 450. Bull view void on an H1 close below 3 343.
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DeGRAM | SOLUSD channel floor launch toward 170+Solana continues to respect the broad rising channel that has guided price since early April. Recent corrective action tagged the channel median and then the intersecting 137-140 horizontal support, forming a classic confluence floor. The reaction: a sharp bullish rejection that restored price above the magenta internal trendline, indicating buyers remain in firm control. The corrective structure itself resembles a descending wedge losing bearish momentum, while RSI prints a positive reversal at 40 – conditions that often precede explosive upside resolution. A decisive close over 150 triggers an upside breakout aiming first at 160 (wedge objective) and subsequently at the 172-175 resistance block where prior distribution occurred. Should momentum spill over, the upper channel trajectory extrapolates 185-190 in coming weeks. Bullish bias is intact while candles close above 137; deeper dips into that zone likely represent opportunity rather than weakness.
NZDUSD - Expecting Bearish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Clean bearish trend with the price creating series of lower highs, lower lows.
No opposite signs.
Expecting further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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Gold Falls Back Despite Geopolitical Tensions,Eyes on 3404 BreakGOLD – Overview
Gold Falls, Erasing War-Driven Gains
Gold has reversed all gains made since Israel launched strikes against Iran, despite rising geopolitical tensions.
The precious metal failed to hold its safe-haven bid and now appears to be entering a technical correction phase.
While the Federal Reserve struck a dovish tone during Wednesday’s meeting — signaling potential rate cuts this year — real rates remain elevated, which continues to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Technical Outlook:
Gold corrected perfectly to our support level at 3347, as forecasted in the previous idea.
• As long as price trades above 3365, bullish momentum remains active
• Next targets: 3393 → 3404
• A 1H candle close above 3404 would confirm bullish continuation toward 3430 and 3448
A break below 3347 would shift the structure bearish.
Key Levels:
• Support: 3365 / 3347 / 3322
• Resistance: 3393 / 3404 / 3430 / 3448
previous idea:
BTC – Bullish bias under review: 102k/103k supports in focus__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
__________________________________________________________________________________
Momentum : Dominant on all major timeframes (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator signals STRONG BUY except on 15min (neutral).
Support/Resistance : Structurally key pivot zone 102k–106k; major supports 102k/103k. Potential breakout above 106k (swing target 109k).
Volumes : Normal across all timeframes. No excess signals, no accumulation/capitulation peaks.
Multi-TF Behaviors : Horizontal consolidation with bullish dominance. Short-term bearish divergence on 2H–15min, micro-TF in correction only, no panic.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic Summary
__________________________________________________________________________________
Global Bias : Solid bullish structure as long as 102k/103k hold. “Risk On” maintained by sector outperformance.
Opportunities : Entries on pullback/main base 103k–104k; breakouts to watch above 106k.
Risk Zones : Clear invalidation <102k, potential rapid flush to 97k–88k; keep strict stop-loss below 102.5k.
Macro Catalysts : FOMC, Fed projections, Middle East geopolitics keep volatility high, but no shock. Price action leads near-term strategy.
Action Plan : Swing buy on confirmed support, dynamic hedge post-news, monitor volumes/closures on key pivots.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
1D : Bullish momentum, major supports intact (102k/105k). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = STRONG BUY, stable volume, no excess. Healthy structure for long swings.
12H : Positive bias, range 102.6k–106k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = STRONG BUY.
6H : Presumed accumulation 103k–106k, momentum still strong. No volume weakness.
4H : Range oscillation, structural support test at 103k. Sector outperformance, neutral volume.
2H : First sign of short-term weakness. Divergent with higher TFs but no panic.
1H : Technical rebound towards 104.8k possible as long as 103k support holds.
30min : Short-term trend remains bearish (trend 30min = down). Correction/purge ongoing.
15min : Neutral momentum, supports being tested. No panic or melt-down observed.
Summary : Strong bullish confluence on higher TFs, temporary divergence on micro-TFs. “Range with bullish bias” scenario as long as 102k/103k holds the structure.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro and Fundamental Analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
FED/FOMC (June 18) : Rates unchanged, “data dependent” guidance. Raised volatility but no risk-off shift.
Market Sentiment : BTC technical structure holds, moderate post-FOMC volatility.
S&P500 : Above all key moving averages. Sector momentum (software, uranium, semis) remains dominant.
Energy Level : Weak oil = little macro pressure against BTC.
Geopolitics : Israel–Iran escalation / US posture reinforced. High FX/oil volatility but BTC resilient (>102k), no panic on record.
Economic Calendar : Closely watching BoE & SNB, but low BTC impact odds.
Implications : Post-news phase = ideal for range trading, no rupture event expected within 48h.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic synthesis & R/R guidance
__________________________________________________________________________________
Long on pullback 103–104k, swing targets 106/109k. Optimal R/R (>2.5) if stop 102.5k (D Pivot Low).
Invalidation area : Clean close <102k or heavy downside volume (capitulation via ISPD/volumes).
Risk Management : Dynamic stops, partial hedge post-FOMC during macro volatility.
Conclusion : Bullish structure preserved. Range trading scenario dominant, no extreme signals or panic. Actions: support watch, technical buy on confirmed pullback.