GBPUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers,
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. We would appreciate your support through likes and subscriptions.
Key Points
- At the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve revised its 2024 U.S. economic growth forecast down from 1.7% to 1.4%. It held the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25–4.50%. The dot plot shows a divergence in opinions among Fed officials, but the median projection suggests two rate cuts within the year.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the stance that the current interest rate level will be maintained while observing the impact of tariffs more clearly.
- U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said it’s “not too late” if Iran wants to return to negotiations. Regarding potential military action against Iran, he stated, “We may or may not do it,” keeping the option open.
Key Economic Event This Week
+ June 19: Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
The pair has pulled back after facing resistance from the trendline. It has now reached the 1.34000 support level—a zone where a major trend reversal occurred previously—so a bullish reversal could be expected here. However, if this support breaks, the decline could extend toward the 1.32500 level. We recommend closely monitoring the movement around this area.
Support and Resistance
NZDUSD SELL OFF (Counter-Trend Setup)(Daily) - Price hit Key resistance level at (0.60308 - 0.59985) and consolidated at the level attempting to breakout but failing and forming double top in 4H.
(4H) - Price formed double top at the Key resistance level (0.60308 - 0.59985) which is reversal pattern, neckline of the DT at (0.60031).
(4H) - Bearish market structure at the level price forming new lower high and lower low at (0.60578 - 0.60535)
(4H) - Rising trendline connecting low of the price at (0.58522 - 0.59556).
Entry ;
-We have 2 entry models;
1.Aggressive Entry at the Double top after the close of the bearish Engulfing Candle SL above double top at 0.60808
2.Conservative Entry wait for the break of the rising trendline to signal trend change from an uptrend to downtrend then execute.
How to trade the Fed's interest rate decision!In nearly an hour, the Fed will announce the Fed's interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations;
In nearly an hour and a half, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
If the Fed's policy statement or the latest forecast shows a dovish tendency, it may resume the downward trend of the US dollar, thereby supporting the upward trend of gold; and the recent mild inflation and weak employment data in the United States may prompt the Fed to soften its previous assessment, thereby strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts and providing support for gold prices.
From the current technical structure, gold maintains a volatile and anxious market during the day, and there is no clear direction in the short term, but gold is currently always below 3400, and the overall market is still in a weak trend; but gold has repeatedly touched the 3375-3365 area and can quickly recover, proving that there is still strong buying support below; in fact, it stands to reason that if gold is really weak, it should have continued to fall and touched the 3360-3350 area, but gold did not touch the area as expected, but used sideways trading to exchange time and space, and there was no sign of any downward breakthrough, so gold is likely to choose an upward direction.
In addition, the Middle East geopolitical crisis, global economic uncertainty, intensified trade frictions and rising inflation expectations will all provide structural support for gold. So if gold does not fall below the 3365-3355 area today, we will be bullish on gold first; but if gold cannot break through the 3410-3420 area in one fell swoop during the rise, then we need to be careful of the trend of gold rising and then falling.
As for how to trade the news next: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The above are my trading ideas and opinions, you can read them carefully and use them as a reference! If you still want to trade news after careful consideration, please be sure to set SL during the transaction to protect your account to the greatest extent!
6/19 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning!
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision aligned with market expectations, bringing no major surprises. The market had already priced in bearish sentiment in advance, which led gold to trade within the Bollinger Bands' upper, middle, and lower bounds, with all three bands trending sideways, indicating limited intraday volatility.
🔍 Technical Overview:
On the 30-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands began to tilt downward near the close, with price currently pressured by the middle band;
However, MACD structure suggests the middle band may be broken, with potential for price to challenge the upper band resistance near 3392–3400;
More importantly, on the 1D chart, the MACD is showing signs of a bearish crossover (death cross). If confirmed, it may break the bullish structure, weakening support from the weekly MA5;
If gold sustains below the weekly MA10 at 3317, it could open the door for a broader correction, with a drop toward 3200 becoming increasingly likely.
📊 Fundamental Factors:
Today’s U.S. market holiday means fewer economic data releases. As such, gold will likely be driven by technical structure and geopolitical headlines, especially those related to the Middle East. If no new developments emerge, selling on rallies remains the preferred strategy.
📌 Trading Plan (VIP-Focused):
✅ Sell Zone: 3392–3409
✅ Buy Zone: 3338–3321
✅ Scalp/Flexible Zones: 3387 / 3373 / 3364 / 3356 / 3345
ASX 200 Looks Set to BounceThe ASX 200 has drifted lower since its latest record high was set six days ago. 8500 held as support before doji formed on Tuesday to mark a false break of this key level. ASX 200 futures also tried but failed to break beneath it overnight.
Given the bullish divergence on the 1-hour RSI (14) and RSI (2), the bias is to seek dips towards 8500 for a cheeky long towards the December high.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forexc.com
Lending Club Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 061825Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 10.7/61.80%
Chart time frame:C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress:A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Home Depot Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025
- Home Depot broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level at 340.00
Home Depot recently broke the support zone located between the support level 352.00 (low of wave A from April) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the ABC correction (2) from April.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from May.
Home Depot can be expected to fall to the next support level at 340.00 (former support from the middle of April).
Adobe Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025- Adobe broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 364.90
Adobe recently broke through the support zone located between the support level 392.85 (which stopped wave A at the end of May) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse (1) from April.
The breakout of this support zone continues the active impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from last month.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall to the next support level at 364.90 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025- USDCAD broke daily down channel
- Likely to rise to the resistance level at 1.3730
USDCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the start of May.
The breakout of this down channel follows the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.3545 coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level at 1.3730 (former strong support from May).
Gold Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025
- Gold reversed from resistance level 3445.00
- Likely to fall to support level 3300.00
Gold recently reversed with the Bearish Engulfing from the resistance level 3445.00, which is the lower border of the resistance area which has been reversing the price from April.
The resistance level 3445.00 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the resistance level at 3445.00 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level at 3300.00 (the low of the previous minor correction ii).
USD/cad TRADE 2 even tho i belive this to be in a down trend i still belive a reversal for next couple days is in order i would say wait for in to retrace to a higher level of interest to get in on a short but advanced traders will be waiting for the jump, i have marked the arrows to show u what i belive to happen but a engulfing pattern has already come out, i so i belive this is going to have a little bullish run to then continue on the bearish movment
EURAUD to find buyers close to market price?EURAUD - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
The selloff is close to an exhaustion count on the daily chart.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Bespoke support is located at 1.7620.
We look to Buy at 1.7620 (stop at 1.7585)
Our profit targets will be 1.7760 and 1.7790
Resistance: 1.7750 / 1.7800 / 1.7850
Support: 1.7670 / 1.7620 / 1.7580
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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Preponderance of (or Preposterous?) Evidence
I was just proposing yesterday staying neutral in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF). The FOMC meeting today (Jun 18th) was a big-nothing burger (so far), which supports my (non)position, but we'll see. I will update that post when the time is right (ATH, 200dma, or bust).
Today, though, the IWM (the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF) and, surprisingly, a potential short position.
First, the IWM (see below) is overbought on a weekly chart, with the Stochastics being above 80 (more on Stochastics and weekly charts at a later date). For now, let's go with IWM being a little overbought, in the longer-term view.
Now, let's switch to the big daily chart at the top and look at the evidence for going short;
- IWM never really got above it's 200-day moving average (purple line),
- That same level was consistent with a lot of resistance ~213 (yellow circles),
- IWM has trailed this whole rally.
- It has broken and somewhat retested a trendline (light blue) from this most recent rally,
- It bounced off it's 61.8% Fibonacci level (orange line, not my favorite indicator for ETFs, but I often sneak a peek),
- It's at its previous resistance high around 209 (blue circles).
On the not-bearish side;
- The daily chart is less overbought (this has to happen on weakness, though),
- There's (a little) support at 199 but not really again until 172,
- I still feel like the All-Time-High (ATH) is a magnet for the S&P (but IWM has trailed).
That's (a lot) more (and better) points for being bearish.
I'll go short (via a ~90 day ITM put position*) if IWM breaks below 207.50, between that and 202. If it opens lower than 202, I'll wait for a pull-up.
The stop will be a close above the 200 day.
The target is 172 (the previous tariff low), but I will lighten/tighten up (by selling OTM puts* and/or moving stop down) as IWM drops (if it drops).
It may seem a bit duplicitous to be neutral on SPY while being bearish on IWM.
But sometimes you have to go with the Preponderance of Evidence (or will it prove Preposterous Evidence?)
An update will be coming.
*Sorry for bringing up options. One can just go short IWM. I will explain my option choice one day.
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
BTC BOTTOM $ - 100% Never Fails (2013 - Today)Bitcoin Weekly Chart Going Back To 10+ Years
We are looking at the BitStamp Green Support Line here that has Marked the bottom correctly before 100% of the time for each each bull cycle pump on bitcoin going 3/3 without fail.
We are now looking to see if we can go 4/4 and mark the new bottom buy with a quick wick down to the green support currently around 73K+ this week, but as each week closes the bitcoin bottom number will rise as the green support line rises over time.
Good luck. Let's see if the 4th time is also the charm.
Wave C Complete — Time for the Real Move on LaunchCoin?Yello, Paradisers! Is #LaunchCoin about to reverse from its brutal downtrend? After completing a probable ABC correction right at key support, the conditions are setting up for a potential bounce — but only for those patient and prepared.
💎#Launchcoinusdt ,We’re most likely looking at the final leg of a Zig-Zag correction pattern, with wave C landing precisely within a well-defined support zone between 0.1006 and 0.1060. This zone has held up well so far, and there’s a clear bullish divergence forming on the RSI, which statistically increases the probability of a short-term reversal from this level.
💎The structure suggests we’re near a local bottom, but follow-through is essential. A sustained reclaim of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level could act as a confirmation trigger for further upside. If that occurs, we expect price to approach the next resistance at 0.1493, followed by a strong resistance zone between 0.1900–0.2000, and eventually the major resistance around 0.2200–0.2350.
💎However, invalidation remains clear: any 4-hour candle closing below 0.1006 would reduce the probability of this bounce playing out and shift the bias back toward further downside. Until then, the setup remains valid and tradable for those who follow a structured and disciplined approach.
Paradisers! we are playing it safe right now. If you want to be consistently profitable, you need to be extremely patient and always wait only for the best, highest probability trading opportunities.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
QQQ: All-Time High Resistance vs. Strong Trendline Support• Approaching All-Time High Resistance: QQQ is currently trading directly beneath its all-time high of $541 and is encountering a robust overhead resistance zone, indicating a critical test for bullish momentum.
• Strong Ascending Trendline Support: The price action is consistently supported by a well-defined ascending trendline (green), which has successfully held on multiple tests, signaling an intact short-term bullish trend.
• Key Horizontal Support Levels: Below the current price, immediate support is identified at $522, with a more substantial "Key Area" of demand observed between $505 and $510, offering deeper potential support.
• Prior Trend Reversal Confirmed: Earlier in the chart, QQQ successfully broke above a significant descending resistance trendline (red), which had previously capped rallies, confirming a shift from a bearish to a more bullish market structure.
• Foundational Breakout Level: The $494 level, marked as a "Recent Breakout Level," now acts as a key historical resistance-turned-support, providing a foundational base for the current upward movement.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Mr. LATE drop the RATE!!"Jerome Powell aspires to be remembered as a heroic Federal Reserve chair, akin to Tall Paul #VOLKER.
However, Volker was largely unpopular during much of his tenure.
The primary function of the Federal Reserve is to finance the federal #government and ensure liquidity in US capital markets.
Controlling price inflation should not rely on costly credit.
Instead, it should be achieved by stimulating growth and productivity through innovation and by rewarding companies that wisely allocate capital, ultimately leading to robust cash flows... innovation thrives on affordable capital.
While innovation can lead to misallocations and speculative errors, this is a normal aspect of the process.
(BUT it is crucial that deposits and savings are always insured and kept separate from investment capital.)
By maintaining higher interest rates for longer than necessary, J POW is negatively impacting innovators, capital allocators, small businesses that need cheap capital to function effectively, job creators, and the overall growth environment.
Addressing price inflation is a far more favorable situation than allowing unemployment to soar to intolerable levels.
"Losing my job feels like a depression".
But if I have to pay more for eggs, I can always opt for oats.
Nifty Analysis EOD – June 18, 2025 – Wednesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – June 18, 2025 – Wednesday 🔴
⚖️ Dhamakedar Start, But Indecisive Close – Weekly Expiry Caution Ahead
Nifty opened with a 65-point gap-down at 24,788.35, but what followed was a power-packed bullish start — within just 25 minutes, it surged over 150 points, hitting a day high of 24,947.55.
However, the euphoria didn’t last.
As the session progressed, the index gradually gave up all its gains, slipped below the previous day’s low, and finally found support at 24,750, a critical level. By the end of the day, Nifty settled around the opening zone at 24,812.05, just +23 points above open, while net change remained −41.35 points from the previous close.
The day showcased both strength and weakness — a typical "everyone-expected-fall-but-it-didn't-fall-enough" kind of day. The long upper wick reflects failed attempts by bulls, while the lack of breakdown keeps the bears in check.
Tomorrow is weekly expiry — caution is advised.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,788.35
High: 24,947.55
Low: 24,750.45
Close: 24,812.05
Change: −41.35 (−0.17%)
📊 Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 23.70 pts → ✅ Green Candle (tiny body)
Upper Wick: 135.50 pts
Lower Wick: 37.90 pts
🔍 Interpretation
Strong bullish momentum early on, but buyers failed to hold above 24,900.
Long upper wick signals supply or profit-booking at higher levels.
Price closed near open despite wide range → indecision between bulls and bears.
🕯 Candle Type
🟨 Spinning Top – A textbook indecisive candle, often seen at turning points or during pauses in trend.
📌 Key Insight
Buyers couldn’t reclaim or close above 24,950 — resistance strengthened.
Support held at 24,750 — but barely.
Watch 24,950 on upside and 24,750 on downside — a breakout from either may decide expiry-day trend.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 252.34
IB Range: 170.65 → Medium IB
Market Structure: ⚖️ Balanced
Trades:🚫 Short Trigger at 12:45 : Trapped - SL Hit
📌 Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
24,894 ~ 24,882
24,972 ~ 25,000
25,060 ~ 25,080
25,102 ~ 25,125
Support Levels
24,825 ~ 24,847
24,725 ~ 24,735
24,660
24,590
💭 Final Thoughts
When price travels 200 points but closes flat, it tells you something: Smart money is waiting.Weekly expiry ahead could bring unexpected moves.✅ Stay nimble. Stay alert.
🧠 “When in doubt, let the market shout — not whisper. Listen for the breakout.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
Gold is stubborn1. Gold hit my Stop loss
2. The market is still on a support zone, multiple liquidity grabs have occurred.
3. A diamond pattern on the M15
4. At the CMP, the market is mostly Bearish.
5. Waiting on the market to come back up, FOMC @20:00EST Time
6. Trusting your analysis when it might go sideways, gives you a mental edge
Wayfair | W | Long at $34.62Wayfair $NYSE:W. Recession fears are valid. But long-term, once this company becomes truly profitable, this will be a multi-bagger. I won't go on much about the fundamentals because there are too many economic unknowns ahead, but from a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average lines/area is repeatedly converging with the price and leveling out. Often, this means a change in directional momentum. There are no more open price gaps below the current price on the daily chart. Thus, at $34.62, NYSE:W is in a personal buy zone.
Note: The price entering the teens in the near-term is a possibility.
Targets:
$40.00
$50.00