Breakout ExpectedResistance at 21.80 - 22
Crossing & Sustaining this level
will lead it towards 23 - 23.50
initially & then 24.50 - 26
Supportandresistancezones
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea**Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea**
**📊 Current Market Overview:**
- Price: **$2,912** (as per chart)
- Key Resistance: **$2,920 - $2,932**
- Key Support: **$2,900 - $2,888**
- Moving Averages: Price is hovering near the 50 EMA and 20 EMA, showing a potential decision point.
---
### **📈 Bullish Scenario:**
✔ **Entry:** Buy above **$2,915** after confirmation.
✔ **TP1:** **$2,922**
✔ **TP2:** **$2,928**
✔ **TP3:** **$2,932**
✔ **SL:** Below **$2,900**
🔹 *Confirmation:* If price holds above **$2,914** and breaks through the resistance zone **$2,920**, expect further bullish momentum.
---
### **📉 Bearish Scenario:**
✔ **Entry:** Sell below **$2,908**
✔ **TP1:** **$2,900**
✔ **TP2:** **$2,892**
✔ **TP3:** **$2,888**
✔ **SL:** Above **$2,920**
🔹 *Confirmation:* If price rejects **$2,915-$2,920** and breaks below **$2,908**, it may trigger a bearish move.
---
### **📌 Additional Notes:**
🔸 **Volume Analysis:** Recent volume surge suggests strong interest, but wait for confirmation.
🔸 **Risk Management:** Use proper lot size and stop loss to protect capital.
🔸 **News Events:** Watch for economic releases that could impact gold prices.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 11, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, comment on this.
SUI - Short or Long? The Ultimate SUI Trade BlueprintHere’s an update to the analysis I did one month ago on February 10. Since then, SUI has continued to show its bearish tendencies—making lower highs and lower lows. After that dramatic 30% drop from a golden pocket short opportunity, the price started inching up on low volume. This weak rally suggests that while buyers are testing the ceiling, the overall trend remains down. That sets the stage for two possible plays: a short trade if the price reaches the resistance zone, and a long trade if it bounces off a strong support level.
1. Identification of Support and Resistance Zones
Resistance Zone (for the Short Trade):
Daily Resistance: ~2.7888
Point of Control (POC): Around 2.8035
Monthly Open: 2.83
0.618 Fibonacci Retracement: 2.8711
All these levels combine to create a robust resistance area where sellers are likely to step in.
Support Zone (for the Long Trade):
$2 Psychological Level: A key round number that attracts attention.
0.7 Fibonacci Retracement: Derived from the swing low of $0.4625 to the high of $5.3687, this places an important level at 1.9344 (just below $2).
Monthly Bullish Order Block: At 1.9137, indicating buying interest.
Fib Speed Fan (0.786): Points to support near the $2 mark.
POC: 2.0225
Anchored VWAP: Calculated from the deep low at $0.362, which again aligns around $2.
These multiple layers of confluence make the $2 area a strong support zone and an attractive entry point for a long trade.
2. Short Trade Setup
The Plan:
Building a short position gradually using a laddering strategy. With a $15,000 allocation from a $100,000 account, scale in at different levels to keep risk in check.
Scaling In (Entry Levels):
Entry # Entry Price % of Position Amount Invested ($)
1 2.6808 5% $750
2 2.7070 5% $750
3 2.7314 10% $1,500
4 2.7552 10% $1,500
5 2.7755 10% $1,500
6 2.7990 15% $2,250
7 2.8242 20% $3,000
8 2.8485 25% $3,750
Total: Avg. ~2.7924 $15,000
Stop Loss: Set at $3.07, limiting the risk to about $1,506 (roughly 10% of the trade allocation or 1.51% of the account).
Scaling Out (Exit Levels):
Exit Cover Price % of Position Amount Paid to Cover ($)
1 2.7925 5% $750.02
2 2.1715 5% $583.23
3 2.1365 10% $1,147.66
4 2.0981 20% $2,254.07
5 2.0630 20% $2,216.36
6 2.0257 10% $1,088.14
7 1.9930 15% $1,605.87
8 1.9625 15% $1,581.29
Outcome:
Total: Avg. ~2.09 $11,226.65
Net Profit: $15,000 (initial proceeds) – $11,226.65 (cost to cover) = $3,773.35
Profit % on Trade: +25.16%
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approximately 2.51
This laddering approach helps to secure profits at various levels while managing the risk effectively.
3. Long Trade Setup
The $2 support zone is a magnet, backed by multiple confluences. When SUI tests this area and shows signs of a rebound, it sets up a great opportunity to go long.
Key Support Details:
$2 Psychological Level: A well-watched price point.
0.7 Fibonacci Retracement: Places a key level at 1.9344 from the low ($0.4625) to the high ($5.3687).
Monthly Bullish Order Block: At 1.9137, adding to the support.
Fib Speed Fan (0.786): Confirms support near $2.
POC & Anchored VWAP: Both clustering around $2 (POC at 2.0225 and VWAP from a low of $0.362).
Trade Details:
Entry: Buy at $2.00
Target: Sell at $2.337 for an approximate 20%+ gain
Stop Loss: Set just below $1.80 to protect against further downside
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: About 2.44 or better
Wrapping It Up
In this dual-setup strategy, we're well-prepared for different market outcomes:
Short Trade: If SUI rallies into the tightly clustered resistance zone, scale into a short with defined entries, exits, and a stop loss that caps our risk at about 1.51% of the account. Exit ladder aims for an average cover price of around $2.09, netting a neat profit of approximately $3,773 (or +25.16% on the trade).
Long Trade: Conversely, if SUI finds strong footing at the confluence-rich $2 support zone, we can flip to a long position. Entering at $2.00, with a target of $2.337 and a stop loss below $1.80, gives an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of roughly 2.44.
This approach lets us capitalise on both sides of the market. Keep an eye on volume and price action. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next TA.
Solana: Time to Buy or More Pain Ahead?Solana has been in freefall since peaking at nearly $300 on January 19, 2025, dropping a staggering 61% to $115,47 in just 50 days, currently trading at around $119. A support zone for potential reversals.
The big question now: Is this the time to go long, or is more selling pressure ahead? Let’s break it down.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Lost Key Level at $120
Solana lost the key support at $120, turning it into a resistance zone. For bulls to regain control, SOL must reclaim this level with confirmation and increased volume.
Next Key Lows to Watch
Below the current price, the next key liquidity zones are at $110 and $105, where buyers may step in.
Major Support Zone – $104 to $96
If selling continues, we have a strong support zone between $104.14 and $96.96, backed by multiple confluences:
Anchored VWAP Support: Taking the anchored VWAP from the 2023 lows at $8, we find it currently aligning near $100, a key psychological level.
Monthly Order Block: On the monthly timeframe, an order block sits right at $100 mark, reinforcing this level as strong support.
2024 Yearly Open: The yearly open from 2024 is at $101.72, adding another layer of confluence.
0.666 Fibonacci Retracement: Measuring from $8 to the all-time high of $295.83, the 0.666 Fib retracement is at $104.14, further strengthening this support zone.
Liquidity Pools: There's a lot of liquidity around the $100 area
Fib Speed Fan Support: The 0.7 Fib speed fan also aligns perfectly with this support zone.
Conclusion: The $104–$97 range becomes a high-probability long entry zone with minimal risk.
Long Trade Setup
Entry Zone: $118 – $97
Stop Loss: Below $95
Take Profit Target: $135
Average Entry: $105 (DCA)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): a solid 3:1 or better
Strategy & Execution
With SOL already down over 60%, scaling into a long position makes sense. Here's how to do it the right way:
1️⃣ DCA Strategy – Instead of going all in, scale in gradually within the $118–$97 range for a better average entry.
2️⃣ Volume & Price Action – Watch for a spike in volume and bullish price action before adding to the position.
3️⃣ Psychological Level Play – There are likely many buy orders around $100, meaning a bounce before hitting lower support is possible.
Stay tuned for updates as this trade unfolds! 🚀
XLM Crashes Below Key Support – Is a Reversal Near?XLM has broken its previous low, raising the question: where is the next major support zone? To determine this, we will focus on fibonacci, moving averages, and order blocks to find a high-probability bounce area for a potential long position.
🔍 Fibonacci Retracement – Locating the Next Support Level
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from the low at $0.0757 to the high at $0.6374:
0.618 Fib Retracement → $0.2903 (Already Lost) ❌ Current Price: $0.248
Next Major Fib Level – 0.786 Retracement at $0.1959
Since the 0.786 Fib level is a key retracement point, we need further confluence factors to confirm its strength as a potential support zone.
🔗 Confluence Factors Strengthening the Support Zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179)
1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension
High: $0.6374
A: $0.3179
B: $0.515
1:1 extension aligns at $0.1902 → Strong confirmation near 0.786 Fib retracement ✅
Wave A-B Fibonacci Extension
1.618 Fib extension from wave A to B is at $0.1875 → Aligns with the 1:1 trend-based extension ✅
Daily Support Level at $0.1962
Sits almost exactly at the 0.786 retracement ($0.1959) ✅
21 EMA & 21 SMA for Moving Average Support
21 EMA at $0.20338
21 SMA at $0.17187
Order Block Between $0.2208 – $0.1964
Demand area aligns with the major support zone ✅
Key Takeaway:
A high-probability support zone is now identified between $0.1959 and $0.17179, with multiple confluences suggesting a strong potential bounce.
Trade Plan – Scaling Into a Long Position
Given the strong confluence at the support zone, the best approach is scaling into a long trade.
DCA Entry Strategy:
Start scaling in at $0.22, as an order block exists between $0.2208 – $0.1964
Main focus remains on the support zone ($0.1959 – $0.17179)
Stop Loss:
Below the 21 SMA ($0.17187) for invalidation
Take Profit Levels for Optimal R:R:
First TP at $0.25 → Resistance area
Next TP at $0.30 → Strong psychological & resistance level
R:R Approximation:
2:1 R:R for first TP ($0.25)
3:1+ R:R if targeting $0.30
High-Probability Support Zone Identified
✔ Multiple confluences confirm a strong support zone at $0.1959 – $0.17179
✔ Scaling into a long from $0.22 to $0.17179, with stop loss below the 21 SMA ($0.17187)
✔ Take profit levels set at $0.25 & $0.30 for a solid R:R trade
Alternative bullish scenario: A reclaim of lost key low at $2526 with rising volume could signal a long opportunity, only on confirmation.
💬 Will XLM bounce from this key support? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀🔥
NZD/CAD Triangle BreakoutThe NZD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.8268
2nd Resistance – 0.8301
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PFE 1H Long Swing Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ SOS level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ biggest volumed Sp
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit before 1/2 of the Month
Expandable to 1/2 of the Year
Daily Trend:
"+ long impulse
+ neutral zone
+ close to 1/2 correction"
Monthly CounterTrend
"- short balance
+ unvolumed expanding ICE
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test"
Yearly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ exhaustion volume?"
Will add more if corrects to 1/2 of 1H wave.
MRK 5M Long Investment Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ exhaustion volume
+ volumed T1
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1/2 1M take profit
Hourly CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ 1D SOS level"
Daily Trend
"+ long impulse
+ SOS level
- before 1/2 correction"
Monthly CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ exhaustion volume?"
Yearly Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ exhaustion volume?"
F 5M Long Conservative Trend DayTrade Conservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ SOS level
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+
Calculated affordable stop limit
1D T2 take profit
1H Trend
"+ long impulse
- before 1/2 correction
+ SOS test level"
1D Trend
"- short impulse
+ exhaustion volume
+ volumed TE / T1 level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+
+ test"
1M CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ 1/2 correction
- unvolumed T1
+ support level
+ reverse volume approach
+ volumed manipulation"
1Y Trend
"+ long impulse
+ volumed T2 level
+ volumed 2Sp+
+ weak test"
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 10, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
TESLA'S FALLI am seeing continuation to the downside of TESLA with all the market sentiment of Tariffs. TESLA has touched a previous order block as expected on the downward movement, closing with a support on the $252/255 area. I am awaiting 2 possible situations depending on Monday's ORB movement.
1- That TESLA will move up to the $384/382 area to retest Trendline and continue to liquidate orders down to the next order block which is in the range of $212/215 to commence a bounce to recovery.
2- Tesla will continue to drop from current range towards to the lowest order block to $212/215 for a bounce back.
Looking forward to possible news to validate sentiments in order to make these moves happen.
So far on prediction 23/0 so I am confident this is the markets intention for now.
BTCUSDT 1WI hate to say it... but all signs point to a bear market...
From the nonsense weekly candle to negative divergence and channel ceiling and...
DUOL: mid-term trend structure Until price is holding above 13th Jan lows, my operative scenario is continuation of the upside momentum towards 420-450 resistance zone.
Moving and holding above 450 level increases the probability of a continuation move towards higher resistance levels at 590+.
Otherwise, until price holds bellow 450, there are significant odds of deeper correction in the mid-term before continuing macro uptrend
My previous idea on NASDAQ:DUOL from Dec'23 topping actions:
and update on break-out potential from Sep'24:
Thank you for your attention!
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.
Different Time FramesMonthly View:
Monthly Support is around 11200 - 11500
Important Resistance is around 12500 -12700
Weekly View:
Weekly Closing above 12000 is Important for
touching the Resistance of 12500 - 12700.
Daily View:
Hidden Bullish Divergence has appeared which
is a positive sign.
If the Selling Pressure continues, we may expect a
bounce back from 11500 - 11600. Otherwise
today's Closing above 11820 can be a Positive Sign.
Bitcoin Butterfly Harmonic Pattern – Multi-Fibonacci Confluence!A potential Bullish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern is developing, with point D yet to be completed. If price action reaches the harmonic completion zone, it could present a high-probability long opportunity near a stacked Fibonacci confluence zone.
The D-leg aligns beautifully with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 5-wave Elliott structure from the macro low at $15,476 to the all-time high of $109,588. A level that has acted as key support in the past. Multiple additional Fibonacci confirmations further strengthen this potential bullish reversal zone.
Pattern Breakdown – Bullish Butterfly Formation
The Butterfly Harmonic Pattern is a structured reversal setup, often forming at market extremes before trend shifts.
1️⃣ XA Leg – The initial impulse.
2️⃣ AB Leg – A retracement of 0.786 – 0.886 Fibonacci of XA.
3️⃣ BC Leg – A counter-trend move retracing 0.382 – 0.886 of AB.
4️⃣ CD Leg – The final move, typically extending 1.618 – 2.618 Fibonacci of XA.
📍 In this developing setup:
✅ B-point retraces 0.806 of XA → Butterfly pattern remains valid.
✅ C-point retraces 0.838 of AB → Strengthening structural alignment.
✅ D-leg projection target 1.695 XA extension, converging with multiple key Fibonacci levels.
Fibonacci Confluence – Strong Potential Reversal Zone ($73,783.52 - $73,157)
As price moves toward potential point D, multiple Fibonacci levels create a high-probability reversal area:
0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 5-wave Elliott structure ($73,637.22)
Negative -0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $73,251.43
Negative -0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $73,157
Trend-based Fibonacci Extension 1:1 at $73,783.52
📍 Potential Reversal Zone: Between $73,783.52 and $73,157
Trade Setup – Waiting for Confirmation
Since point D has not completed yet, we should wait for bullish confirmation signals in the reversal zone before entering.
Entry Zone (if price reaches D): Between $73,783.52 and $73,157
Stop Loss: Below $73,157 (D-point invalidation)
Take Profit: B-point resistance
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): 3:1 if TP at B-point
⚠️ Key Reminder:
🚨 The pattern is not confirmed yet. A reaction in the potential reversal zone (e.g., bullish divergences, strong buying pressure, or reversal candlesticks) would strengthen the case for a long position.
Are you watching this level for a potential reaction? Will point D complete? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🚀🔥
(XAU/USD) daily (1D) chart potential support and resistance,(XAU/USD) daily (1D) chart showing potential support and resistance levels along with a projected price movement.
Key observations:
1. Resistance Level: The price is currently near a strong resistance zone (around 2,953 - 2,908), where it might face rejection.
2. Entry Zone: A red “Entry Zone” is highlighted near the resistance, indicating a potential short-selling opportunity.
3. Support Levels: Several support levels are marked, including 2,789, 2,717, and 2,607, which may act as potential price reaction points.
4. Possible Price Movement: A zig-zag pattern suggests that if the price gets rejected at resistance, it could move downward towards 2,607 or lower in multiple waves.
5. Blue Box: A demand zone is highlighted around 2,550-2,600, which could act as a strong support area.
This analysis suggests that if the price fails to break the resistance, a downward correction is likely, and traders should watch key support levels for potential trade opportunities.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 7, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are provided above.
Understanding these levels in trading can offer valuable insights into potential market movements. They often indicate where prices may reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
These levels are calculated using complex mathematical models and are specifically tailored for today’s trading session. They may change as market conditions evolve.
If you find this information helpful and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly appreciated! However, please note that if this post does not receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
ES Technical AnalysisWhere Price Going?
-Price reacting off of 200MA
-Price reacting off of Daily/Weekly Demand
-Price reacting off of Major Support
-Fears of Trump Tarriffs
-Fears of slowing economy
Price is at a critical level depending if
buyers step in or if price breaks away
below 200MA
Bitcoin: Mastering the Art of Resistance and SupportBitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present.
Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest:
Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red.
90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively.
The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments.
1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis
1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800
A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle.
Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target:
1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & Retest
Bitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range).
Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries.
Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05:
Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes.
1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving Averages
In addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance.
1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Alignment
Bearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21.
Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K.
Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K:
1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci Confluence
Monthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K.
Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block.
Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67:
When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals:
2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out
2.1. Scaling In (Entries)
We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206:
Short Trade Laddered Entries:
Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K).
Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the GETTEX:25K position, or 1.03% of the $100k account).
2.2. Scaling Out (Exits)
We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10:
Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the $100k account).
Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade.
3. Support Analysis & Long Thesis
Having addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade.
3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave Structure
The double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588.
A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence?
5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637:
3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib Confluence
Monthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in.
Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone.
Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280.
Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62:
3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend Line
Fib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month.
Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far.
Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K:
3.4. Potential Long Trade Setup
Entry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone).
Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer.
Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce.
Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target.
4. Summary
Short Trade:
Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K.
Laddered Entry: GETTEX:25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560.
Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account).
R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup.
Long Trade:
Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences.
Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K.
Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward.
Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility.
Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus.
Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Happy trading!
P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.
GBP/JPY Bullish Channel (07.3.25)The GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 192.46
2nd Resistance – 193.40
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Price Reversal in Play: Key Levels and Targets to WatchAfter analyzing multiple timeframes, we can see that the price started trading within a large channel from Friday, 15th March 2024. The channel’s upper boundary acted as a strong resistance on Thursday, 31st October 2024, at 2790. Both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel have consistently functioned as key support and resistance levels.
The price reached an all-time high (ATH) of 2955, where it struggled to break through the channel’s upper boundary. Given the historical respect for these channel lines, we now anticipate a potential reversal. The price has already started to turn around, and to confirm this reversal, we need to see a break below both the trendline and the support level.
Once confirmed, your targets will be:
• 1st Target: 23.60% (2867)
• 2nd Target: 38.20% (2813)
• 3rd Target: 50.00% (2770)
• 4th Target: 61.80% (2726)
Make sure to follow proper risk management.
Happy Trading! Don’t forget to follow for more updates. 🚀
