Supportandresitance
WTI TRADE UPDATEhi all
Based on the current situation for WTI, with the stop loss hit from the previous trade idea, Plan A now relies on a breakout of the trendline and the support turning into resistance as confirmation for taking a long position.
However, if rejection occurs at the trendline or at the support-turned-resistance level, there's a possibility that the price will decline again, given that a breakout has already happened on the daily timeframe. Therefore, closely monitoring price movements around these key levels is crucial before making any trading decisions.
Ensure strong confirmation before acting, and keep an eye on shifts in market structure. Feel free to share any new updates, and best of luck with your strategy!
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosGold (XAUUSD) has exhibited a strong bullish impulse, breaking out of established channel structures. Following a sharp ascent, the price action has entered a consolidation phase near recent highs. This analysis explores potential scenarios based on technical patterns, key levels, and underlying market psychology.
Chart Analysis and Market Psychology
The chart displays a distinct uptrend characterized by ascending channels. Recently, XAUUSD experienced a significant upward thrust, breaking decisively above the shorter-term orange channel. This move reached the projected target derived from this channel's height, near the 3405 level.
Following this peak, price action has formed a tighter consolidation range. This pattern, occurring after a sharp rally and on potentially decreasing volume (as is common in such formations), resembles a bullish continuation pattern, such as a pennant or flag. From a market psychology perspective, this suggests a temporary equilibrium:
Buying Pressure: Bulls who drove the initial breakout may be pausing, absorbing profits taken by earlier entrants, or accumulating new positions in anticipation of further upside. The sharp nature of the preceding rally indicates strong underlying demand and potentially FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among participants.
Selling Pressure: Sellers are attempting to cap the rally, potentially taking profits or initiating short positions. However, the observation that dips below 3259 were quickly bought suggests that selling pressure has been relatively weak compared to the buying interest defending this level. This rejection indicates that market participants still perceive value at or above this zone, viewing it as a potential support level following the breakout.
The key level currently in focus appears to be around 3259. The price interaction with this level could be crucial in determining the next directional move.
Bullish Scenario
Conditions: For a bullish continuation, the price would ideally need to hold above the 3259 support level. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the current consolidation pattern would serve as confirmation.
Psychology: This outcome would suggest that the consolidation phase was indeed accumulative, with buyers absorbing selling pressure and preparing for the next leg higher. It would reinforce the "impatient bulls" and "weak bears" narrative.
Potential Targets:
A retest of the recent highs near 3405.
The target derived from the breakout of the medium-term turquoise channel, located near 3640.
Given the aggressive nature of the preceding rally, an overshoot towards the higher projection at 3839 might become a possibility if bullish momentum remains exceptionally strong after breaking 3640.
Bearish Scenario
Conditions: A failure to hold the 3259 level, coupled with a break below the lower boundary of the consolidation pattern, could signal a potential reversal or a deeper pullback. This might involve price re-entering the previously broken orange channel.
Psychology: This scenario would suggest that the buying pressure was insufficient to sustain the breakout, potentially indicating a "bull trap" or simply a more significant profit-taking wave overwhelming demand at current levels.
Potential Support Zones:
The upper trendline of the orange channel (acting as support after being resistance).
The primary uptrend line (lower boundary) of the orange channel.
The channel line (upper boundary) of the broader turquoise channel, which could coincide with the orange channel's lower boundary, potentially forming a confluence of support.
Concluding Remarks
XAUUSD is at a potential juncture following a strong bullish breakout. The current consolidation pattern holds the key to the next immediate move. Holding above 3259 and breaking the consolidation high could pave the way for further upside towards targets at 3640 and potentially 3839. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at 3259 might trigger a pullback towards the support levels defined by the underlying channel structures. Traders often watch volume closely during the resolution of such patterns for confirmation.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves risk, and decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.
Fall Down to $70 ApproachingWith the RSI above average since mid-April 2025, the trend has been steadily rising up to $82 per share even breaking the highs from late February and March.
Price projected onto both (A and B) Inside pitchforks is well above the median line. In the pitchfork A the price is even directly touching the upper parallel line.
Reversal near the highest achieved price this year on 21st February is probable
Based on these indications, we can expect a fall to around $70 somewhere in the middle of May.
Key details:
RSI over "overbought" level
Price in both Inside pitchforks near the upper parallel line
Longer uptrend = breakdown necessary
NAS100USD: Bullish Scalping Opportunity from SupportGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we identify bullish institutional order flow, and as such, we aim to align with this narrative by seeking buying opportunities.
This setup presents a scalping opportunity on the lower timeframes, with price currently reacting to a bullish order block serving as a key institutional support zone. Upon confirmation, we anticipate a move toward the liquidity pool in premium pricing, which will serve as our target zone for profit-taking.
As always, remain disciplined, wait for clear confirmation, and manage risk accordingly.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
US500 TRADE IDEAhi again
The US500 has shown strength by breaking the resistance at 5483.5 and is now at 5535. If the price reaches 5604.6 and a pullback occurs, targeting a temporary decline at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is a good strategy.
Fibonacci retracement is often used to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price might pause or reverse. The 50% level is one of the commonly watched levels by traders as it often indicates a significant turning point in price movement.
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
OIL TRADE IDAHello
Hi everyone. Regarding oil movements, I see a long opportunity at the level of 59.61. If the price closes below 58.56, there is a possibility of a temporary rise before continuing to drop to 55.
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Game-changing analysis technique that will elevate your strategyAs many of my loyal followers know, my analysis toolkit goes beyond just the standard fare of CME options data and COT reports. I dive deeper, utilizing additional filters like the average long and short positions of retail traders. These insights are publicly available, and while I won’t name specific sources to avoid any hint of hidden promotion, I’ll give you a clue: look for a website with the word "book" in its title. 📚
For years, I’ve relied on this data, and it has proven to be both reliable and insightful. The average positions of market participants serve as both filters and indicators. But what do I mean by indicators?
Let’s break it down. When the price interacts with these levels, it reveals the market sentiment. For instance, if the price is below the average long position and breaks through easily, it’s a bullish sentiment. Conversely, if it hovers below the level and struggles to break through, that’s still bullish, as it indicates buyers are being drawn into profitable territory.
Now, let’s flip the script for the bears: if the price breaks down from above or struggles below the average short position, that’s a bearish sentiment. The price isn’t responding to sellers, dragging them into a profit land.
There’s more. Often, you’ll notice different behaviors near these key levels, allowing you to enter positions with an incredible risk/reward ratio of 3:1, 5:1, or even better! This clarity gives you insight into the current market mood—who’s being punished and who’s favored at that moment.
Now, let’s take a look at the screenshot of the British Pound futures chart. Here’s what you’ll see:
- A green line representing the average long position of retail traders.
- A red line for the average short position.
- The breakeven point of a put option contract for the June futures expiring on May 22, with 1,320 contracts at a strike of 1.295.
Take a moment to study the chart. What do you observe? 🤓
Ok, breathe in, breathe out. Tomorrow, we’ll dive deeper into this analysis. Don’t forget to subscribe so you won’t miss the continuation of this story! The insights I’ll share are definitely worth your time, as I aim to shift your perspective on the market by demonstrating a clear methodology without relying on indicators or technical patterns.
Stay tuned; it’s going to be incredibly valuable! 🚀✨
GOLD - Price can continue to move up inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Long time price rising near the support line, but later it made a correction movement, breaking this line.
Then price had a sharp impulse that confirmed bullish structure and started to grow inside a rising channel.
After reaching the top boundary, the price reversed and started a pullback to the support area near $3265.
This zone also aligns with the channel base and acted as a bounce point before, making it a strong technical level.
Now the price is consolidating above this support, forming a higher low, which may confirm continuation.
As long as price holds, and I expect it to bounce from support line and push toward $3480 channel resistance.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
AMD to Retest SupportAMD has been in a descending price channel since November of 2024 with clear support and resistance established. On Monday we saw an attempt to breakout however it was rejected at the establish resistance line. Given the rejection and the significant drop that followed I think we will likely see AMD drop to slightly below $80 in the short term and retest the established support line.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 24 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 24, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
BTC Next Move - Bulltrap or Take-off?In todays overview, we will discuss the price action of BTC and what we could expect in the short-term.
What will we discuss?
- Bitcoin approaching key resistance
- Daily trendline break - But no higher high yet
- Stochastic RSI overbought on the daily timeframe
- Defining the daily range
- Downside targets within the range
- Final thoughts
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Bitcoin Approaching Key Resistance
Bitcoin is now pressing up against a significant resistance zone in the $88,000 to $89,000 range. This area is dense with liquidity, and many stop-loss orders have likely accumulated just above the previous local wick. It's not uncommon in these scenarios for price action to briefly push higher, grabbing that liquidity and triggering those stops, before reversing direction. A short-term stop run followed by a move to the downside wouldn’t be surprising and would align with typical market behavior in these conditions.
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Daily Trendline Break – But No Higher High Yet
On the daily chart, BTC has managed to break above a descending trendline that had previously capped price action. While that initial breakout was a promising sign for bulls, price has since been consolidating outside the trendline without yet printing a higher high. Until that happens, the overall market structure remains bearish on this timeframe. A confirmed higher high would be needed to shift the daily trend back to bullish.
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Stochastic RSI Overbought on Daily Timeframe
The Stochastic RSI on the daily chart has been in overbought territory for more than a week, which is typically unsustainable for long periods. This kind of prolonged overbought reading often precedes a pullback. The key question is not if a correction will happen, but how deep it will go. Ideally for bulls, a minor pullback followed by a higher high would be constructive and could signal the beginning of a stronger upward move. But until then, caution is warranted.
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Defining the Daily Range
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a well-defined range between $75,000 and $88,000. This is the key zone that traders should be paying attention to. As long as price remains within this bracket, we are in a ranging market, not a trending one.
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Downside Targets Within the Range
If price does get rejected at the resistance zone, downside targets to watch include support levels at $84,000, $80,000, and $75,000. These levels could provide bounce opportunities within the range. There’s no need to speculate on price moving significantly below $75,000 unless that level is cleanly broken. Similarly, upside targets beyond $89,000 shouldn’t be considered until we see a proper breakout and continuation.
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Final Thoughts
We should treat the current market as range-bound until proven otherwise. That means respecting the range: moves into resistance zones near FWB:88K – GETTEX:89K are potential selling opportunities, while dips into support around $75K–$80K may be areas to look for buying setups. Until either support or resistance gives way, expect this chop to continue, and trade accordingly.
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XAUUSD buy opportunity targeting 3400XAUUSD buy opportunity targeting 3400
1. A golden opportunity emerges as XAUUSD eyes a bullish breakout.
2. Current market dynamics strongly favor long positions in gold.
3. Investor sentiment shifts amid global economic uncertainties.
4. Safe-haven demand fuels upward momentum in precious metals.
5. Technical indicators signal strong support and bullish continuation.
6. The 3400 target aligns with historical resistance and Fibonacci extensions.
7. Central bank policies and inflation concerns bolster gold's appeal.
8. Volatility in fiat currencies drives capital toward tangible assets.
9. Momentum traders are positioning early ahead of the breakout.
10. A strategic buy now could yield significant returns as gold ascends.
US500 BULLISH SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEhi
Fundamental view
The **US500 index** dropped due to several key factors affecting the U.S. stock market:
📉 **Tech Stock Decline** – Technology stocks faced heavy pressure, especially after **Nvidia** plunged **6.9%** due to U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Other stocks like **AMD (-7.3%)** and **Micron Technology (-2.4%)** also fell.
💰 **Federal Reserve Uncertainty** – Remarks from **Fed Chair Jerome Powell** raised concerns in the market. Powell warned that new tariffs could trigger higher inflation and slow economic growth, making investors uncertain about interest rate policies.
🛍️ **Surge in Retail Sales** – Retail sales jumped **1.4%** in March as consumers rushed to buy before new tariffs took effect. This highlights economic uncertainty, pushing investors to sell their stocks.
Overall, a mix of trade tensions, uncertain monetary policy, and a tech stock sell-off caused the **US500 index to drop 120.93 points (-2.24%)** on **April 16, 2025**.
Technical view
Yes, the **bullish symmetrical triangle** pattern is often a strong signal for upward price movement. When the price moves within this pattern, it usually indicates a **tightening volatility** before a **breakout**, which can present a good market entry opportunity.
🔍 **Breakout Confirmation**
1️⃣ Increased trading volume when price breaks above the **upper trendline**.
2️⃣ A closing candle above the **triangle resistance** for a valid signal.
3️⃣ Price targets can be measured using the pattern’s initial height as a projection.
📈 **Potential Price Movement**
If the breakout happens, the price could surge toward the next **resistance level**. However, if the breakout fails and price moves below support, the pattern could turn **bearish**.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
BTC POTENTIAL TRIPLE TOP PATTERNhi
From the previous chart, the price successfully broke through the upper trendline and started to rise. This could indicate that bullish momentum is taking over. Waiting for the price to break the upper trendline is a solid strategy for confirming bullish momentum. However, there is a potential triple top pattern forming, which could indicate that the price may face rejection at a key resistance level 86056.35
If the triple top pattern becomes more apparent and the price fails to break above resistance, it could signal the start of a bearish move. In this scenario, trading volume and price action around the resistance zone are crucial to observe. If volume declines and selling pressure increases, the price may drop further.
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support